金十数据6月5日讯，Saltmarsh经济公司经济学家Marchel Alexandrovich表示，欧洲央行再次降息25个基 点，并将利率推至1.5%至2.5%中性区间的中点。此外，最新的季度经济预测显示，2025年和2026年的 GDP增长前景将略有放缓，总体通胀水平将下降。根据这些预测，管委会应该能够在7月24日的下一次 会议上再次降息。当然，该行反应将部分取决于特朗普的90天关税暂停期在7月初结束后会发生什么。 经济学家：GDP增长和通胀预测下调，欧洲央行7月或继续降息 ...

2025 年 06 月 05 日 铝：震荡横盘 氧化铝：偏弱运行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20075 | 215 | રૂટ | 145 | -455 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20110 | ー | ー | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2487 | 17 | 4 | 17 | -152 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 160576 | -22947 | -39346 | ૨૦૭૨૦ | -24888 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 189969 | -1175 | -12504 | 1473 | -23438 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 179 ...

智通财经6月4日电，美联储库克表示，美联储在人工智能（AI）方面的工作非常有限且谨慎。美联储 必须对利率"所有可能性"持开放态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula has expressed concerns that interest rates are excessively high, which may hinder economic growth and investment [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - High interest rates could lead to reduced consumer spending and lower business investments, potentially stalling economic recovery [1] - The government is advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity and support growth [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - President Lula is urging the central bank to reconsider its monetary policy stance and lower interest rates to foster a more favorable economic environment [1] - There is a call for a balance between controlling inflation and promoting economic growth through more accessible credit [1]

但美联储其他官员们的讲话则释放了最新的政策信号。在此前的公开讲话中，美国芝加哥联储主席奥斯 坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，如果特朗普政府的关税措施最终没有最初公布的那样激进，那 么美联储的政策利率在未来15个月内"很可能会明显降低"。美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）表 示，假设有效关税税率接近较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展，劳动力市场保持稳 健，将支持今年晚些时候实施"好消息式"的降息。 目前，美联储正处于"观望期"，在等待更多通胀和增长数据以决定是否在下半年降息。有分析称，鲍威 尔此番"保持沉默"，可能是为了避免在关键数据发布前提前影响市场预期。 美联储的下次议息会议将在6月17日至18日举行。 来源：本网综述 （原标题：美联储主席最新发声：重申全球经济研究重要性，对货币政策预期"保持沉默"） 经济观察网讯 当地时间6月2日，美国华盛顿，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在美联储国 际金融司75周年纪念会议上讲话。 鲍威尔表示，美联储国际金融司在拉美债务危机、2008年金融危机、新冠疫情期间扮演了关键角色，并 通过开发复杂模型 ...

Core Insights - The latest PCE data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in April 2023, aligning with a moderate inflation rate, suggesting a potential economic deceleration [1][2]. Inflation Metrics - The PCE price index for April showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, down from 2.3% previously and below the expected 2.2%. Month-over-month, it rose by 0.1%, consistent with prior expectations [2][3]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021, and was revised from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Consumer Spending and Income - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by only 0.1% in April, following a 0.7% rise in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.7% [2][3]. - Nominal wages and salaries continued to grow, increasing by 0.5% for the third consecutive month, while the savings rate reached 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year [2][3]. Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed significantly by 46% in April to $87.6 billion, with imports decreasing by $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion and exports increasing by $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion [8]. - The Trump administration is considering a "Tariff B Plan" to impose tariffs of up to 15% on a wide range of goods, which could impact consumer spending and inflation [6][9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2022, with market expectations indicating a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year [11][12]. - Economists predict that the negative effects of tariffs may become evident in the June data, influencing the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [10][15].

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariffs faced legal challenges, with a federal appeals court temporarily halting a lower court's ruling that blocked several tariff orders [2] - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% [3][5] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 1.44% [4] Group 2 - The White House indicated that a judge's ruling on tariffs would be overturned, and multiple trade agreements are nearing completion [8] - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee suggested that if trade policies revert to pre-tariff conditions, there could be room for interest rate cuts [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicted gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-next year, viewing gold as a safer hedge compared to Bitcoin [11] Group 3 - Nvidia's CEO plans to sell up to 6 million shares, potentially worth around $809 million based on recent closing prices [12] - Dell Technologies saw a significant stock increase after reporting Q1 revenue of $23.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [13] - Hyundai is considering a 1% price increase on all its U.S. products to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs [14] Group 4 - NIO reported Q1 revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a delivery volume of 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% [17] - JD.com and Xiaohongshu launched a strategic cooperation plan to enhance business growth for brands and merchants [18] - Tesla plans to deliver its first autonomous Model Y vehicles in June, ahead of schedule [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's interest rates are primarily influenced by bond issuance rather than tariffs and trade [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Transactional Index Fund Capital Flow Weekly Report [1] - Data Date: May 19 - May 23, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Comprehensive Category**: - Funds like Shanghai Composite 50 had a scale of 159.456 billion yuan, a weekly decline of 0.09%, and a net capital outflow of 912 million yuan; CSI 300 had a scale of 983.449 billion yuan, a decline of 0.04%, and an outflow of 2.504 billion yuan; CSI 500 had a scale of 140.12 billion yuan, a decline of 0.81%, and an outflow of 624 million yuan; CSI 1000 had a scale of 116.917 billion yuan, a decline of 1.09%, and an outflow of 1.163 billion yuan; ChiNext Index had a scale of 126.448 billion yuan, a decline of 0.79%, and an outflow of 1.876 billion yuan; STAR Market and ChiNext 50 had a scale of 32.965 billion yuan, a decline of 0.94%, and an outflow of 59 million yuan; STAR 50 had a scale of 181.221 billion yuan, a decline of 1.28%, and an inflow of 1.227 billion yuan; STAR 100 had a scale of 25.701 billion yuan, a decline of 1.28%, and an inflow of 237 million yuan; STAR 200 had a scale of 547 million yuan, a decline of 1.31%, and no net inflow; A50 had a scale of 36.101 billion yuan, an increase of 0.24%, and an outflow of 741 million yuan; A500 had a scale of 198.099 billion yuan, a decline of 0.10%, and an outflow of 4.363 billion yuan; Hang Seng Index had a scale of 6.723 billion yuan, an increase of 0.38%, and an inflow of 14 million yuan; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index had a scale of 915 million yuan, an increase of 0.71%, and an outflow of 1 million yuan; Others had a scale of 129.449 billion yuan, a decline of 0.20%, and an outflow of 1.715 billion yuan [4]. - **Industry - Theme Category**: - Big Technology funds had a scale of 216.688 billion yuan, a decline of 1.56%, and an outflow of 375 million yuan; Big Finance had a scale of 128.483 billion yuan, a decline of 1.15%, and an inflow of 1.136 billion yuan; Big Health had a scale of 100.161 billion yuan, an increase of 2.41%, and an outflow of 4.06 billion yuan; Big Manufacturing had a scale of 72.818 billion yuan, a decline of 1.03%, and an inflow of 2.928 billion yuan; Big Consumption had a scale of 56.089 billion yuan, a decline of 0.09%, and an outflow of 45.5 million yuan; Big Cycle had a scale of 21.416 billion yuan, an increase of 0.35%, and an inflow of 137 million yuan; Public Utilities had a scale of 6.614 billion yuan, a decline of 0.05%, and an outflow of 6.5 million yuan; Carbon Neutrality had a scale of 13.051 billion yuan, an increase of 0.21%, and an outflow of 9.8 million yuan; State - owned Enterprise Reform had a scale of 61 million yuan, a decline of 0.68%, and no net inflow; Others had a scale of 74.2 million yuan, an increase of 0.24%, and an outflow of 200,000 yuan [4]. - **Style - Strategy Category**: - Dividend funds had a scale of 59.877 billion yuan, an increase of 0.90%, and an outflow of 56.9 million yuan; Growth had a scale of 7.306 billion yuan, a decline of 0.48%, and an inflow of 1.1 million yuan; Value had a scale of 3.308 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an outflow of 300,000 yuan; Dividend Low - Volatility had a scale of 43.535 billion yuan, an increase of 0.59%, and an inflow of 52.9 million yuan; Quality had a scale of 1.332 billion yuan, an increase of 0.27%, and an outflow of 30,000 yuan; Low - Volatility had a scale of 25.5 million yuan, a decline of 0.27%, and no net inflow; Others had a scale of 11.1 million yuan, a decline of 0.14%, and no net inflow [4]. - **Enterprise - Nature and Region Category**: - China Special Valuation had a scale of 51.633 billion yuan, an increase of 0.20%, and an outflow of 78.3 million yuan; Regional funds had a scale of 4.342 billion yuan, a decline of 0.07%, and an outflow of 300,000 yuan [4]. Group 3: Overseas - Related Funds - **Comprehensive Category**: - Nasdaq 100 had a scale of 78.421 billion yuan, a decline of 1.22%, and an outflow of 994 million yuan; S&P 500 had a scale of 20.837 billion yuan, a decline of 0.92%, and an outflow of 60 million yuan; Dow Jones had a scale of 1.708 billion yuan, a decline of 1.18%, and an outflow of 60 million yuan; German DAX had a scale of 975 million yuan, an increase of 1.19%, and an inflow of 44 million yuan; French CAC40 had a scale of 601 million yuan, an increase of 1.14%, and no net inflow; Nikkei 225 had a scale of 3.611 billion yuan, a decline of 0.41%, and an outflow of 8.2 million yuan; Tokyo Stock Price Index had a scale of 771 million yuan, an increase of 0.69%, and an outflow of 5.6 million yuan; Saudi Arabia had a scale of 540 million yuan, a decline of 1.86%, and an inflow of 6.2 million yuan; Hang Seng Index had a scale of 19.174 billion yuan, an increase of 0.45%, and an outflow of 7.7 million yuan; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index had a scale of 12.002 billion yuan, an increase of 0.54%, and an outflow of 6.9 million yuan; Others had a scale of 3.713 billion yuan, an increase of 0.10%, and an outflow of 11.5 million yuan [5]. - **Industry - Theme Category**: - Hong Kong Stock Technology had a scale of 92.609 billion yuan, a decline of 1.18%, and an outflow of 3.8 million yuan; Chinese Internet had a scale of 45.35 billion yuan, a decline of 1.13%, and an outflow of 25.4 million yuan; Hong Kong Stock Medical had a scale of 27.231 billion yuan, an increase of 5.49%, and an outflow of 239 million yuan; Hong Kong Stock Consumption had a scale of 968 million yuan, an increase of 0.04%, and an outflow of 9.8 million yuan; Others had a scale of 16.931 billion yuan, a decline of 0.95%, and an inflow of 6.2 million yuan [5]. - **Style - Strategy Category**: - Dividend had a scale of 1.269 billion yuan, an increase of 2.40%, and an inflow of 10.9 million yuan; Dividend Low - Volatility had a scale of 77.7 million yuan, an increase of 0.95%, and an inflow of 1.8 million yuan [5]. Group 4: Bond and Commodity Funds - **Bond Funds**: - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: 30 - year bonds had a scale of 8.969 billion yuan, an increase of 0.28%, and an inflow of 821 million yuan; 10 - year bonds had a scale of 4.09 billion yuan, an increase of 0.16%, and an inflow of 113 million yuan; 5 - 10 - year bonds had a scale of 38.952 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an inflow of 365 million yuan; 5 - year bonds had a scale of 6.948 billion yuan, an increase of 0.09%, and an inflow of 66 million yuan; Bonds under 5 - year had a scale of 22.725 billion yuan, an increase of 0.02%, and an outflow of 195 million yuan; Others had a scale of 371 million yuan, an increase of 0.10%, and an outflow of 2.8 million yuan [6]. - **Credit Bonds**: Medium - to - high - grade bonds had a scale of 10.916 billion yuan, an increase of 0.12%, and an inflow of 893 million yuan; Urban Investment Bonds had a scale of 13.817 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an inflow of 328 million yuan; Short - term Commercial Papers had a scale of 29.341 billion yuan, an increase of 0.03%, and an inflow of 1.707 billion yuan [6]. - **Convertible Bonds**: Had a scale of 43.859 billion yuan, an increase of 0.07%, and an outflow of 688 million yuan [6]. - **Commodity Funds**: - Gold had a scale of 70.887 billion yuan, an increase of 3.78%, and an outflow of 563 million yuan; Soybean Meal had a scale of 4.193 billion yuan, an increase of 0.84%, and an inflow of 11 million yuan; Non - ferrous Metals had a scale of 745 million yuan, a decline of 0.36%, and an inflow of 1.5 million yuan; Energy and Chemicals had a scale of 293 million yuan, a decline of 1.75%, and an outflow of 3 million yuan [6]. Group 5: Index - Enhanced Funds - Index - enhanced funds related to Shanghai Composite 50 had a scale of 76 million yuan, a decline of 0.38%, and no net inflow; CSI 300 had a scale of 3.209 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13%, and an outflow of 1.5 million yuan; CSI 500 had a scale of 1.978 billion yuan, a decline of 0.50%, and an outflow of 500,000 yuan; CSI 1000 had a scale of 656 million yuan, a decline of 0.97%, and an outflow of 70,000 yuan; ChiNext Index had a scale of 469 million yuan, a decline of 0.92%, and an outflow of 50,000 yuan; STAR Market and ChiNext 50 had a scale of 62 million yuan, a decline of 1.38%, and no net inflow; STAR 50 had a scale of 935 million yuan, a decline of 1.63%, and an inflow of 1.5 million yuan; STAR 100 had a scale of 317 million yuan, a decline of 1.49%, and an inflow of 10,000 yuan; Others had a scale of 194 million yuan, a decline of 0.70%, and an outflow of 90,000 yuan [6]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25%, with a cautious tone in its statement, and the decision was made with a vote of 5 in favor and 1 against [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that tariffs will only cause temporary fluctuations in U.S. inflation, estimating that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation will rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025, with a cooling labor market and wage growth dropping from over 4% in 2022 to 2.9% currently [1] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cautiously lower interest rates further, with a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in July, down from 70% prior to data release [2] Group 2 - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower the OCR one to two more times before the current cycle ends, with one expected cut in the third quarter, adjusting the highest rate forecast for August to 3% [2] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management analysts believe that market pessimism regarding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is exaggerated, suggesting investors increase duration as the yield premium on long-term U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise [2] - Analysts note weak demand for Japanese government bonds, leading to rising yields on 30-year bonds, which may impact the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [2]