中东再度传来重磅消息！ 据环球网援引美联社当地时间16日报道，在中东紧张局势下，美国国防部长赫格塞思正在前往白宫战情室，将与美国总统特朗普及其国家安全团队会面。与此同 时，据央视新闻，霍尔木兹海峡附近的阿曼湾有三艘船只起火。 受此消息刺激，国际油价再度直线拉升，布油一度大涨近2%。 与此同时，油气股再获资金青睐，国新能源直线封板，新锦动力涨逾10%，准油股份、胜通能源、山东墨龙涨停。有国际大行表示，伊朗的生产或出口基础设施若 遭受重大破坏，将给油价带来更大的上行压力。 此外，在加拿大举行峰会的七国集团领导人发表联合声明，我们一直明确表示，伊朗绝不可能拥有核武器。包括特朗普在内的G7领导人呼吁缓和伊朗局势。对冲突 和国际能源市场的影响保持警惕，并随时准备进行协调。 再添变数 据美联社当地时间16日报道，在中东紧张局势下，赫格塞思正在前往白宫战情室，将与特朗普及其国家安全团队会面。美联社称，赫格塞思没有透露此次会面的具 体原因，但他在当地时间16日晚接受美媒采访时表示，这些行动是为了"确保我们民众的安全"。报道还提到，美国已重新部署在中东地区的军舰和军机，以应对以 色列和伊朗冲突进一步升级。 美国国务院发言人称， ...

贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 入 期 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点代 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/16 | 3415. 20 | 36. 38 | 3434. 80 | 36. 48 | 792. 30 | 8858. 00 | 788. 66 | 8831.00 | | (本表 ...

Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale tariffs by Trump has led to a significant slowdown in the IPO market, with reports indicating it is "almost at a standstill" [1][6] - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to alternative investments for yield, with BlackRock setting a fundraising target of $400 billion for its private equity business by 2030, aiming to increase its revenue share from 15% to over 30% [2] - Coller Capital's report indicates that most investors plan to increase allocations to private credit and secondary market assets in the coming year, driven by structural growth factors [2][3] Group 2 - Private credit is the most favored asset class among investors in the alternative asset space, with 45% planning to increase allocations, up from 37% six months ago [3] - Geopolitical risks are now a core consideration for portfolio construction, with 44% of investors increasing their focus on these risks, particularly regional conflicts and trade wars [3] - The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in investment portfolio management is becoming a significant trend, with 90% of U.S. investors planning to leverage AI for value addition [4] Group 3 - Traditional exit channels are facing liquidity challenges, prompting over half of global investors to consider trading private equity assets in the secondary market within the next two years [5] - The total transaction volume in the global secondary market is projected to reach $160 billion in 2024, while IPO exits are expected to generate only $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, significantly lower than the $600 billion in 2021 [5] - The current environment has led private equity executives to prioritize alternative exit strategies, such as divestitures and continuation funds, with 80% of top fund managers entering the continuation fund market [6]

地缘冲突升级与科技变革交织，全球顶尖分析师共绘贵金属投资新蓝图 2025年6月14日，红狮金业2025年中投资论坛在香港线下线上同步盛大开幕。本次论坛汇聚领域顶尖贵金属分析师和金融科技 专家，围绕三四季度黄金、白银及原油走势展开深度剖析，并系统性探讨人工智能在黄金交易领域的革命性应用。 贵金属走势：避险需求推动黄金白银持续走强 论坛开场，红狮金融研究院首席分析师展示了最新预期分析：黄金价格在第三季度有望再次突破3500美元/盎司，而白银在工 业与投资双重需求推动下，可能挑战42美元/盎司的历史新高。 论坛现场展示的资本流动监测数据显示，在近期中东冲突升级期间，全球资金呈现出"风险资产抛售+避险资产涌入"的典型模 式。军#工、石油石化板块逆势领涨，而传统消费板块则明显承压。"这不是短期扰动"，"地缘冲突风险溢价已嵌入贵金属长 期定价。当市场看到伊朗核设施成为打击目标，意味着游戏规则已经发生本质变化。" 科技变革：AI重塑黄金交易生态 本次论坛最具前瞻性的议题聚焦AI技术在黄金交易中的应用。红狮科技金融实验室负责人首次展示了 AI黄金交易辅助系统的 两大突破性进展： 1. 多模态市场情绪分析：整合新闻文本、社交媒 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-17 周末伊以冲突加剧，但瓶片减产计划增多 市场要闻与数据 周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，在伊以冲突影响下，原油价格冲高回落，聚酯产业链跟随大 幅波动。基本面方面，瓶片大厂逸盛、华润等装置7月初拟减产，需求走弱预期下，聚酯产业链承压回落。 市场分析 成本端，近期油价在中东冲突加剧下暴力拉涨，周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，近期关注地 缘变化，如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进一步的上行风险。 如果事态控制在一定程度内，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费309元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨)，上周五由于伊以冲突加剧、中东地缘风险抬升，原油大幅 上涨带动聚酯原料价格上涨，瓶片跟随上行。但由于6月海运费高企，海外客户新订单采购积极性不高，聚酯瓶片 工厂库存压力再度抬升。基本面方面，本周瓶片负荷持稳，低加工费下各大厂陆续执行减产，短期而言，聚酯瓶 片加工费预计继续面临一定压力，关注后期逸盛、华润等瓶片减产计划能否兑现，以及集装箱运费变化。 策略 单边：短期PX/PTA/PF/PR在伊以冲突下偏多，关注中东 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-17 地缘局势缓解，股指反弹 市场分析 中东局势暂未升级。国内方面，国家统计局发布最新经济数据显示，5月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%， 社会消费品零售总额增长6.4%，前5个月，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，高端制造、数字经济等发展新动能持 续壮大，5月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长8.6%，数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.1%。1-5月份， 全国新建商品房销售面积和销售额同比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，新开工降幅继续低位收窄，投资降幅略有扩大，商 品房库存已经连续三个月减少。海外方面，伊朗通过中间方传达愿意在美国不参与以色列袭击的前提下重启谈判 的意愿，同时伊朗向以色列传达信息，希望双方将攻击控制在有限范围内。 指数上行。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡上行，上证指数涨0.35%收于3388.73点，创业板指涨0.26%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，传媒、通信、计算机、房地产行业领涨，农林牧渔、美容护理、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额为1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.52%报19701.21点。 期指减仓。期货市场 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：海外地缘政治风险持续发酵，特别是中东局势的紧张程度上升，进一步加剧了市 场的避险情绪，对全球资本市场形成扰动。外贸方面面临一定压力，出口增速放缓，尽管中 美关税谈判出现阶段性缓和迹象，但对美直接出口仍承压，转口贸易部分缓解了这一影响。 当前国内经济结构仍存在明显分化，消费端虽有政策补贴推动，但整体增长动能尚未完全释 放，而房地产投资疲软继续拖累经济增长预期。当日主力资金流向较为集中，互联网服务、 文化传媒和软件开发三大行业合计净流入超过 50 亿元。 参考观点：鉴于当前宏观环境的不确定性，尤其是海外风险事件频发，建议投资者适合理配 置资产，可考虑通过期权等衍生工具对冲潜在波动风险。 原油 宏观与地缘：伊以冲突引爆原油化工系价格。目前伊以持续交火，俄罗斯称将介入调解，希 望中东事态缓和，美国装备大规模调往中东。伊朗反击下中东局势急剧恶化下，市场担忧原 油断供等黑天鹅事件，原油价格或短期内持续偏强运行。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，EIA 首次给出美 国产量下行预测，一定程度上在基本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中 东局势特别是伊朗对以色 ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 9050.00 | 8925.00 | 1.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 7350.00 | 7250.00 | 1.38% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7200.00 | 0.69% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/16 游 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7150.00 | 1.40% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 6645.00 | 6640.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 6020.00 | 5950.00 | 1.18% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/16 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6020.00 | 0.50% | | 西北 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...