在市场持续关注的美联储降息方面，华福证券指出，美国劳动力市场疲软，通胀水平温和上涨，为降息 提供良好的土壤。美联储于2026年降息预期维持两次。美联储降息周期中黄金持有机会成本的下降将打 开黄金向上的突破空间。同时，未来随着美国信用的持续收缩与弱化，各国央行黄金储备占比有望继续 增长，2026年预计金价将在2025年4300美元/盎司左右的峰值上继续抬升。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股早盘走强，截至发稿，万国黄金国际(03939)涨8.02%，报8.75港元；招金矿 业(01818)涨4.92%，报33.7港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.06%，报37.72港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.36%， 报19.55港元。 消息面上，受地缘风险及供给紧张等因素影响，大宗商品价格持续上涨。其中，截至1月5日，现货黄金 价格盘中一度大涨超3%，触及每盎司4467美元的高点。里昂表示，当前委内瑞拉局势提升地缘政治风 险，并支撑金价。瑞银将今年金价目标上调至5000美元。 ...

日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 贵金属日评 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉并活捉委内瑞拉总统带回美国审判，此事震惊全球并 引发巨大的地缘政治风险，周一亚盘时段贵金属板块普遍上涨，伦敦黄金重返 4400 美元/盎司上方。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部 积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济 增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需求等因素影响下，2026 年贵金属特别是工业 贵金属还将继续偏强运行，建议投资者继续持偏多思路参与交易但要控制仓位 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金银铜重回涨势，A 股迎来开门红 海外方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 由 48.2 降至 47.9，弱于预期且连续 10 个月处于 收缩区间，分项来看，主要受库存加速去化拖累，新订单与出口需求持续偏弱，就业继续下 降但降幅放缓；支付价格指数维持在 58.5，显示价格压力仍具黏性。PMI 下行鉴于客户库存 同样偏低，需求短期存在边际修复空间。在美逮捕委总统后，市场风偏并未走弱，道指创下 历史新高，美指震荡走高至 98.4，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.16%，金属价格在岁末年初调整震 荡后重回上行，金价涨超 2%，银价涨超 5%，铜价涨幅近 5%、首次站上 13,000 美元/吨， 在智利铜矿罢工、市场对中期供应缺口的预期以及 LME 认证库存偏低的共同作用下，供应 端忧虑迅速升温。 国内方面，中国 12 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 维持在 52，服务业扩张已连续三年延续， 显示内需端具备一定韧性；但新出口订单在 11 月短暂修复后再度回落至收缩区间， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research on various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and analysis based on their fundamentals and market news [2]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, macro - economic data, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the situation in Venezuela has an impact on the prices of gold, copper, and other commodities [5][8]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The geopolitical event of the US airstrike in Venezuela has supported the price of gold [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level consolidation. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][5]. - **Platinum**: It is oscillating upwards. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. - **Palladium**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The sentiment of going long is strong, and the price has been rising continuously. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical risks and industry news such as production capacity expansion and labor - contract negotiations have an impact on the price [2][8]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][11]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different trends, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and industry news have affected the price [2][14]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macro - and industry news have an impact on the price [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of aluminum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][21]. - **Alumina**: It has a slight decline. The prices of alumina futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][21]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between the real - world pressure and the narrative of the cycle shift, with a wide - range oscillation. The prices of nickel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Industry news such as policy restrictions in Indonesia has an impact on the price [2][29]. - **Stainless steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied)**: The geopolitical situation in Venezuela and other regions has affected the price expectations of crude oil - related products, which in turn has an impact on the prices of downstream products [29][64]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The prices of PTA futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][64]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The prices of MEG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][65]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and production situation have an impact on the price [2][66]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term center has shifted upwards. The prices of synthetic - rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][69]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][72]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of PP futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][74]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short. The price of caustic - soda futures has changed, and the spot market is not optimistic. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][76]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The prices of paper - pulp futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][81]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The market supply and demand and the sales situation have an impact on the price [2][86]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short term. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and the supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][90]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center has shifted upwards. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][95]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the inventory situation have an impact on the price [2][99]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda - ash futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][103]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical factors have disturbed the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward drive. The prices of LPG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of CP paper have an impact on the price [2][109]. - **Propylene**: The upward and downward drives are limited, and the spot trend has stabilized. The prices of propylene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][110]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][118]. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend has paused, and there is support at the bottom. The prices of fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude - oil fluctuations. The prices of palm - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Oil**: The unilateral price is in a range, and attention should be paid to the price - difference opportunities between months. The prices of soybean - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Meal**: The peripheral market has generally risen, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound. The prices of soybean - meal futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Soybean**: It is in a rebound and oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the import situation have an impact on the price [2][158]. - **Sugar**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed. The production, consumption, and import situation at home and abroad have an impact on the price [2][162]. - **Cotton**: It maintains an oscillating and strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the purchase situation of textile enterprises have an impact on the price [2][167]. - **Eggs**: It is in an oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of feed have an impact on the price [2][172]. - **Hogs**: The weakness is emerging. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the inventory of warehouse receipts have an impact on the price [2][175]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the purchase situation have an impact on the price [2][181]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The prices of container - freight - index futures have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The shipping capacity, price adjustment of shipping companies, and geopolitical situation have an impact on the price [2][125].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 弱美元与地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯走势 偏强 2026年1⽉5⽇GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为583.95元/克，涨幅6.48%；钯 主⼒合约收盘价为452.85元/克，涨幅8.88%。 铂观点：美联储独立性+地缘政治风险发酵，铂金走势偏强 主要逻辑：特朗普近期表示，有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并在1 月公布下一任美联储主席人选。此外，1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都 加拉加斯等地发动突袭，抓捕总统马杜罗夫妇并带至美国纽约，地缘政治 风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月5日收盘，广期所铂金主力 合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价22.2元/克，内外价差大幅收 敛，内外正套建议暂时获利了结。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价 ...

随着委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被美军抓获，引发了新的地缘政治风险，以及美国政府似乎将继续 打击来自这个南美国家的货物，原油价格上涨。 西德克萨斯中质原油上涨1.7%，收于每桶58美元以上。美国计划继续向欧佩克产油国的原油出口施 压，尽管委内瑞拉相对较小的全球足迹和已经在努力应对供过于求的市场正在限制价格上涨。在美国唐 纳德·特朗普总统表示美国公司将花费数十亿美元重建委内瑞拉摇摇欲坠的基础设施后，石油公司股价 在盘前交易中飙升。 Rapidan Energy Group总裁Bob McNally在接受彭博社电视采访时表示："市场做得对。这对短期原油期 货来说毫无意义，对美国石油公司和巨头来说又是一股顺风。" 尽管委内瑞拉及其石油行业的未来仍然非常不明朗，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国将暂时管理 该国，需要"完全进入"委内瑞拉的石油供应。美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）周一报道称，美国计划拦 截一艘据称载有委内瑞拉原油的油轮"Marinera"号，该油轮原名"贝拉1号"（Bella 1）。与此同时，马杜 罗已飞往纽约并于周一对毒品恐怖主义指控表示不认罪。 委内瑞拉曾经是一个石油生产大国，但该国的产量在过去二十 ...

我们先看看市场的表面反应。道指大涨超过1%，一举突破了49000点大关，标普和纳斯达克也携手上 涨。但最亮眼的板块，无疑是能源股。雪佛龙股价大涨超过5%，其他石油巨头和服务公司也普遍上 扬。市场的逻辑链条非常直接：委内瑞拉拥有巨大的石油储量，而美国公司可能成为其基础设施重建和 资源开发的最大受益者。华尔街的第一反应，不是恐慌，而是迅速地开始计算商业利益和潜在利润。这 非常现实，也清晰地告诉我们，在当前的市场叙事里，地缘政治风险并非总是负面，一旦它被解读为可 能带来新的商业"蛋糕"，资本便会闻风而动。 朋友们，昨晚大洋彼岸的华尔街，上演了颇为戏剧性的一幕。就在全球都屏住呼吸，紧盯委内瑞拉突发 的地缘政治危机时，美股，尤其是道琼斯指数，却在一片惊愕中悄然创下了历史新高。这听起来是不是 有点反常识？危机当前，市场为何不跌反涨？我是帮主郑重，今天咱们就来拆解一下，这反常的市场情 绪背后，到底在算计些什么。 所以，这对于我们A股投资者有何启示？我的观点是，可以从中读出两层重要的市场智慧。第一层是 "事件解读的维度" 。一个新闻出来，不要只被标题吓到，更要看主流资金如何解读其长期影响和潜在 损益。第二层是 "资产的跷跷板 ...

特朗普与马斯克关系"破冰"！ 当地时间1月4日，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交平台发文称，他3日晚间与美国总统特朗普共进晚餐。美国福克斯 新闻称，此次晚餐在特朗普位于佛罗里达州的海湖庄园度假村举行，这标志着两人在去年公开关系转冷后首次 修复裂痕。 值得关注的是，特朗普和马斯克在海湖庄园"共进晚餐"的时间似乎与马斯克旗下"星链"称要为委内瑞拉提供一 个月免费宽带服务的时间一致。 当地时间1月5日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，美国"并未与委内瑞拉交战"，并称美方当前的行 动目标并非战争，而是打击毒品犯罪和非法移民问题。在政治方面，特朗普称，委内瑞拉在未来30天内 不会举行新的总统选举。他表示，在国家局势稳定之前"不可能举行选举"，美国需要"先把这个国家修复 好"。他预计，美国将对委内瑞拉进行一段时间的深度介入，以推动国家恢复秩序。 隔夜，美股能源股 大幅走强。 特朗普表示大型美国石油公司将投资委内瑞拉后， 标普500能源板块指数 上涨2.7%，其中权重股埃克森美孚和雪佛龙均大幅上涨。 高盛的美国地缘政治风险投资组合（包括40% 的国防股、40%的石油生产商和20%的油轮）在2026年初大幅上涨。此外， 军工股同样走 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/06 China Futures Daily Note CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung embarks on his first state visit to China since taking office. Futures Prices: On Jan 5, equity index futures rose while CG ...

1月3日，美国军方逮捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，这标志着美方行动由经济制裁转向直接推动政 权更迭，紧张局势达到前所未有的程度。元旦假期后的首个交易日，WTI与Brent原油期货价格并未因 地缘政治风险升级而上涨，反而下跌近1%，内盘SC主力合约跌幅更是接近3.4%。与之形成对比的是， 沥青期货呈现大幅跳空高开、高位震荡走势，主力合约一度涨超3200元/吨，涨幅最高达6.3%，随后虽 有所回落，收盘仍保持近4%的涨幅。 今日国内期货BU与SC走出"此起彼伏"的背离行情。我们此前提示，美国与委内瑞拉冲突对原油的地缘 溢价提振有限，难以扭转油价中枢下行趋势。从历史上看，地缘冲突对油价的持续影响力取决于是否造 成大规模、长期的实质性供应中断。根据EIA数据，2025年委内瑞拉石油产量约在97–104万桶/日之间， 仅占全球供应的0.94%–0.96%，即便供应中断也难以推动油价长期上扬。加之当前原油市场处于供应过 剩的累库阶段，从EIA、IEA、OPEC三大机构对平衡表的预估来看，2026年第一季度全球原油市场仍面 临较大累库压力。因此，美委局势难以在基本面上为油价提供持续支撑。反而值得注意的是，美国此次 行动目 ...