Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to the robust performance of multiple US economic and employment data and Fed Chairman Powell's statement on balancing employment and inflation, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 854.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.34 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 270,430, with a decrease of 146 compared to the previous day and an increase of 39,583 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram. The trading volume was 5,422, with a decrease of 2,880 compared to the previous day. The holding volume was 219,666, with a decrease of 3,600 compared to the previous day and 8,504 compared to the previous week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111, with a decrease of 48,786 compared to the previous day and 12,457 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,946,410.45 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holding volume was 1,005.72 tons, with an increase of 30.06 compared to the previous day and 8.87 compared to the previous week [1]. Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 221.00 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 957,978, with an increase of 257,267 compared to the previous day and 168,324 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,156,855 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: The closing price was 10,551 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 212,236, with an increase of 606,548 compared to the previous day and 91,584 compared to the previous week. The holding volume was 44,832, with a decrease of 139,222 compared to the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 46.37 dollars/ounce. The trading volume was 101,291, with an increase of 1,626 compared to the previous day and 43,663 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 530,344,533.33 [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 3.15 dollars/ounce. The iShares Silver ETF holding volume was 15,361.84 tons, with a decrease of 28.23 compared to the previous day [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets showed various changes. For example, the ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 80.52, with a change of -1.53 compared to the previous day and -1.58 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 0.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 68.82 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 65.19 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures were 82,470 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 10,205 dollars/ton, etc. [1]. Stock Indices - **Major Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,828.5764, with a decrease of 25.20 compared to the previous day and -0.47 compared to the previous week. The S&P 500 was 6,643.7000, with an increase of 38.98 compared to the previous day and 11.74 compared to the previous week. Other indices such as the UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, etc., also showed different changes [1]. Important Information - **Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months. Trump's drug tariff is 15% and does not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan [1]. - **US Government Situation**: On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted. The Senate will resume to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives have announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy required by the Democrats, leading to a stand - off between the two parties [1].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation is nearing target levels and monetary policy will gradually shift towards easing [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in November have surged to 92%, significantly lowering the holding cost of gold, which has led to gold prices breaking historical highs [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the breakdown of negotiations over Iran's nuclear issue have heightened global risk aversion, resulting in a single-day influx of over $5 billion into gold [2] Group 3: Weakening Dollar Index - The dollar index has fallen from a high of 105 to below 103, which has positively impacted gold prices, as historical data shows that a 1% drop in the dollar index correlates with an average 1.2% increase in gold prices [3] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally have increased gold purchases, with a report indicating that by 2025, purchases will exceed 1,200 tons, and China's central bank has been increasing its holdings for 10 consecutive months, raising gold reserves to 7.2% [4] Group 5: Rising Inflation Expectations - Despite the Federal Reserve's attempts to control inflation, rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions are pushing inflation expectations higher, increasing the demand for gold as a traditional hedge against inflation [5] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on a support level of $3,680 for gold, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to 15% of the asset portfolio for the medium to long term [6] Group 7: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has confirmed a "flag breakout" on the weekly chart, closing at $3,727, indicating strong bullish momentum [7] - The key resistance level of $3,700 has turned into strong support, with the next target at $3,820 based on Fibonacci extension [8] Group 8: Domestic Gold Market Insights - Domestic demand for gold jewelry has decreased by 24%, while investment gold bars have surged by 25%, indicating a shift from consumption to preservation of value [10][11] - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high, presenting arbitrage opportunities for professional investors [12] Group 9: U.S. Treasury Yield Inversion - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, showing a strong negative correlation with gold prices, which reduces the holding cost of gold [14] - Bridgewater Associates has increased its holdings in gold ETFs from 15% to 25%, reflecting institutional concerns over stagflation risks [15] Group 10: Gold Mining and Recycling Trends - The average global gold mining cost has risen to $1,800, putting pressure on mining profits, suggesting a focus on low-cost leaders like Barrick Gold [17] - The volume of gold recycling has increased by 40% year-on-year, with a record 120 tons recycled in September [18] - The open interest in gold options has doubled, indicating a surge in market hedging demand [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the mismatch between short - term geopolitical (Russia - Ukraine conflict, Yemen situation) driven bullish momentum and insufficient medium - to - long - term fundamental support (no supply - demand gap, weak physical goods). Geopolitics is the current focus, but fundamentals restrict price increases [2]. - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether geopolitical risks can continue" and "how the market digests overbought conditions". In the medium - to - long term, the core game lies in "the extent of demand decline" and "the intensity of supply adjustment" [2]. - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and a medium - term weak oscillation [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term core contradiction focuses on the continuation of geopolitical risks and the digestion of overbought conditions. The key variables are the spread of the Yemen situation to the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The medium - to - long - term core contradiction returns to fundamentals. On the demand side, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the US suppresses oil consumption, and although Asian demand provides some support, it cannot offset global weakness. On the supply side, there is no supply gap as OPEC+ may adjust supply and US shale oil production is stable [2][4]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in a short - term rebound and medium - term weak oscillation. Suggested strategies include: in the month - spread strategy, go long on Brent2512 - 2602 and WTI2512 - 2602; in the domestic - foreign arbitrage strategy, go short on SC - Brent; in the crack spread, continue to hold short positions in RBOB gasoline - WTI and long positions in ICE diesel - Brent [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely to be bullish**: Geopolitical risks have increased, injecting a premium; EIA inventory has a low increase, strengthening supply - demand support; sanctions and conflicts have intensified supply concerns [7]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The Middle - East physical market has weakened; global demand expectations have been continuously revised down; there is still room for supply - side flexibility [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Track the dynamics of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the escalation of US - Houthi armed conflicts, the impact of Israeli military air - strikes on Sanaa, and the safety of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. Also, be vigilant about the progress of the US - Iran talks. - Monitor the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the energy dimension, including the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the implementation of Russia's refined - oil export ban [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Fund Analysis - **Trend analysis**: This week, crude oil showed a geopolitically - driven oscillating upward trend, with Brent crude breaking through the September high. The trend is centered around the game between geopolitics and fundamentals [12]. - **Domestic market**: The short - term trend is oscillating upward. Technical indicators show short - term bullish momentum, but there is a risk of technical correction. The WTI and Brent crude in the international market also show upward trends, but attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [14][15]. - **Fund and position analysis**: Information on domestic and international crude oil futures positions and changes is provided [15][16]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - spread Tracking - Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight Backwardation structure, indicating short - term supply tightness or stable demand. Dubai and domestic SC crude oil month - spreads are weak, reflecting the relatively weak domestic market [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has rapidly narrowed, reflecting the decline of international oil prices and the relatively loose domestic supply - demand situation [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - The crude oil crack spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads may remain high in the short term, while gasoline spreads are difficult to improve. This differentiation is due to energy transformation and geopolitical games [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side Tracking - Information on US and Chinese refinery crude input, operating rates, and US crude oil production and rig numbers is provided [57][60]. 5.2 Demand - side Tracking - Data on US and Chinese refinery operating rates are presented [57]. 5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - As of September 19, data on US commercial crude oil, strategic petroleum, and Cushing region inventories are given [62]. 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA9 monthly report shows that global oil demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025, supply is rising, refinery throughput has fluctuations, and inventory has different trends. The market is affected by geopolitical concerns and the prospect of supply surplus [64][65][66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, but there is a large downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their trends are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal demand [1][2][4] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On September 26, WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 0.93%, and SC rose 0.04%. The international oil price rose and then fell last Friday [5] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to - late September, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, causing oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting. In the medium - to - long term, supply surplus may push oil prices down to around $60 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by pipeline attacks and export resumptions; demand in India decreased in August; US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending September 19 [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [490 - 500] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PG main contract closed at 4258 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price weakened, downstream chemical demand increased, but supply was abundant due to high refinery operating rates and high warehouse receipts, suppressing LPG prices [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10) [16] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is supported by the peak season of shed films. Pay attention to downstream restocking [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (-5) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, supply pressure may ease, and downstream demand is entering the peak season. Pay attention to downstream restocking [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16) [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is stronger than demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro sentiment support the bottom. Pay attention to restocking and inventory reduction [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6676 (-21) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. PX inventory is high, and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6630 - 6720] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4590 (+5) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance, and demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand is in tight balance, expected to be loose in Q4 [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options. Focus on the range of [4630 - 4690] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4311 (+6) yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduced load, overseas devices changed little. Terminal consumption improved short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. Inventory is low, supporting prices [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4255] for EG01 [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2293 (-1) yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains large, but demand has improved, and social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1600 (-10) yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical situation is still under control in local areas without significantly impacting crude oil exports. However, events like Israel's attack on Qatar, the deadlock in the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, and the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue may disrupt the crude oil market. Special attention should be paid to whether Europe and the United States will impose secondary sanctions on buyers of sensitive crude oil from Russia and Venezuela. If the geopolitical situation escalates and affects crude oil production or transportation, it will stimulate a rapid increase in crude oil prices [6][127]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ is committed to a gradual increase in production to maintain market share, planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. Currently, the actual production increase rate is lower than the planned target, but the pace has been accelerating recently. Due to strong power generation demand in the Middle East during the third quarter, the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet arrived, and global crude oil inventories have not increased significantly. It should be noted that, except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, other OPEC+ countries have limited production increase capabilities, and OPEC+'s actual production increase in the fourth quarter will still be lower than the target rate. The actual production fulfillment of OPEC+ in the fourth quarter is a key point closely watched by the market. Additionally, among non-OPEC+ countries, Brazil and Guyana are bringing new production capacities into operation, gradually fulfilling their production increase plans and becoming the main drivers of the global crude oil production increase. The production of US shale oil is flexible, and the current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. It is expected that non-OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 [6][127]. - On the demand side, the peak season for crude oil travel demand ends in the fourth quarter, and Europe and the United States enter the autumn maintenance season in October. Future seasonal demand should focus on winter heating demand. Amid ongoing global trade wars and the transition to new energy sources, special attention should be paid to China-US trade negotiations. Poor non-farm payrolls in the US have raised market concerns, and the slow global economic recovery makes the outlook for crude oil demand pessimistic. The US resumed interest rate cuts in September, and the impact of these cuts on global crude oil demand should be monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of crude oil will weaken in the fourth quarter, with a high probability of inventory accumulation. It is expected that crude oil prices still have room to fall, and the Brent crude oil price is likely to drop below $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to whether oil-producing countries will implement production cuts in response to the continuous decline in oil prices [6][127]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In September, due to increased sanctions on Iran, considerations by Europe and the United States to further sanction Russia, the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian crude oil exports, and the continuous increase in freight rates, domestic crude oil contracts performed stronger relative to international crude oil prices [14]. - The current Brent basis is at a normal level [19]. - Recently, the Brent monthly spread has rebounded following the single-sided price, but the rebound strength is relatively weak [27]. - In late August 2025, the non-commercial net long position of WTI continued to decline and is currently at its lowest level since 2011. The net long position of ICE Brent funds is at a neutral level in the past decade. The Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly since April 2025, with a limited increase range, and is at a low level in recent years [35]. Crude Oil Production - Since 2020, OPEC+ has adhered to production cuts to raise oil prices and maintain fiscal balance. However, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana have continuously increased their crude oil production, squeezing OPEC+'s market share through exports. In addition, some OPEC+ countries, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, have consistently exceeded their production quotas. Except for the period at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, crude oil prices have mostly been under downward pressure. Facing great fiscal pressure due to the slow global economic recovery, OPEC+ began to gradually relax production cuts in 2025 [40]. - On September 7, OPEC+ announced that, considering the stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals (reflected in low crude oil inventory levels), eight countries decided to adjust their production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. This adjustment will take effect in October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5. On September 8, countries such as Iraq submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply [45]. - According to the latest OPEC monthly report, OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day. In August 2025, its production increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant year-on-year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. In August, OPEC+'s crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day month-on-month, indicating an acceleration of production increase [45]. - According to the OPEC monthly report, the production of the eight additional production-cutting OPEC+ countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 1.22 million barrels per day compared to March, which is lower than the production increase target of 1.92 million barrels per day. This means that the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet materialized. The main reasons are that the production increases in Iraq and Russia have fallen short of the targets, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing. Among OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with huge production increase potential, while other member countries have limited production increase space [48]. - Attention should also be paid to the changes in the crude oil production of Iran and Venezuela, which are subject to increased US sanctions. According to the OPEC monthly report, Iran's crude oil production in August was 3.218 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 81,000 barrels per day. Before the US sanctions, Iran's crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels per day. Since February 2025, the US has imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian crude oil-related tankers, traders, ports, and buyers. Iran's crude oil production has been continuously declining slightly since June 2025. Due to the large discount on Iranian crude oil, independent refineries in Shandong still preferentially purchase Iranian crude oil. Venezuela's crude oil production in August was 936,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 12,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year increase of 60,000 barrels per day. In late July, after the US Treasury Department issued a limited license to Chevron, Venezuela's crude oil and fuel exports in August reached their highest level since November 2024. However, in September, the US deployed warships in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela under the pretext of "fighting drug trafficking" and carried out military operations. Venezuela held military exercises and protests, and the relationship between the two countries became tense. According to the latest regulations issued by the US, only about half of the crude oil produced by Chevron's joint venture in Venezuela can be exported. Considering that the US imported about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela in 2024, accounting for 35% of Venezuela's total exports, Venezuela's crude oil exports may be restricted [52]. - The number of US oil rigs did not increase after Trump took office. From April to July 2025, due to the decline in oil prices, US shale oil producers reduced their capital expenditures, and the number of US oil rigs decreased significantly. Since August, it has rebounded slightly. As of September 19, 2025, the number of US oil rigs was 418, 70 less than the same period last year and 65 less than the end of 2024. US crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day in the week ending September 19. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 130,000 barrels per day from the record high set in early December last year. Since 2025, US crude oil production has remained around the historical high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Previously, the continuous decline in crude oil prices in April led to a decrease in US crude oil production, but recently, US crude oil production has increased slightly. The current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. The latest short-term energy outlook from the EIA predicts that US crude oil production will increase by 240,000 and 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2025 and 2026 respectively, reaching 13.44 million and 13.3 million barrels per day, which are slightly revised up by 40,000 barrels per day and 20,000 barrels per day respectively compared to the previous monthly outlook report [55]. - With the gradual commissioning of deep-water projects, Brazil and Guyana have become important drivers of crude oil production growth among non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries. On February 18, 2025, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy announced that Brazil officially joined the "OPEC+" alliance. Brazil plans to invest $77 billion from 2025 to 2029, aiming to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, reaching an annual production of 3.9 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 500,000 barrels per day, and an additional increase of 220,000 barrels per day in 2026. In July 2025, Brazil's crude oil production had increased to 3.75 million barrels per day. In July 2025, Guyana's crude oil production increased to 670,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project in Guyana was put into operation ahead of schedule in early August, and it is expected that production will reach 900,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. According to the plan, the ExxonMobil consortium plans to deploy six FPSOs by 2027, targeting a production capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027. By 2030, with the full commissioning of eight FPSOs, the total production capacity is expected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day [60]. Crude Oil Demand - China is the world's second-largest crude oil consumer and the largest crude oil importer, with about 70% of its crude oil imported. From January to August, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume was 488.072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, reaching a historical high for the same period. In August, China's crude oil imports increased by 4.85% month-on-month and 0.79% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 376.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [65]. - According to the weekly data from Longzhong Information, China's domestic crude oil processing volume has been increasing since August. As of the week ending September 19, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.8241 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.12% and a month-on-month increase of 0.26%. Currently, the domestic crude oil processing volume is only lower than that of the same period in 2023 [70]. - The US PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates in August were 2.9% and 3.1% respectively, both in line with expectations. On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024. The dot plot released along with the policy meeting minutes also showed that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points by the end of the year and 25 basis points each year in the next two years [73]. - The US Markit PMI data in September was still above the 50-point threshold, but both manufacturing and service sector activities slowed down. The preliminary US Markit manufacturing PMI in September was 52, the lowest in two months; the preliminary US Markit services PMI was 53.9, the lowest in three months; and the preliminary US Markit composite PMI was 53.6, the lowest in three months. The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan were below the threshold, indicating weak global overall demand recovery. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The non-farm payrolls in June were revised down by 27,000 to -13,000. The poor US non-farm payroll data has raised market concerns [82]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity. The year-on-year actual growth rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in August was 5.2% (all added value growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors), down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.37% in August. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 6.2%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 5.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of social retail sales and cumulative fixed asset investment both decreased compared to July [86]. - From mid-June to August 2025, during the peak season of downstream crude oil demand, the gasoline crack spreads in Europe and the US continued to rise, especially in August, which was significantly stronger than the same period last year. According to seasonal patterns, Americans usually travel during the period from Memorial Day (the last Monday in May) to Labor Day (the first Monday in September), which is the so-called travel peak season. Around October, US refineries will undergo autumn maintenance, and the refinery operating rate will decline from its peak [91]. - The diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US showed a similar trend to the gasoline crack spreads but had a larger year-on-year increase. Due to restrictions on importing Russian diesel and low ARA diesel inventories, in August, Europe's diesel imports from the US and the Middle East increased by 28% year-on-year, significantly driving up the diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US [95]. September Institutional Monthly Report Expectations - Amid slow global economic growth, increasing trade frictions, and energy transition, EIA, IEA, and OPEC have continuously lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth. The three major crude oil research institutions have generally lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast by about 300,000 barrels per day compared to the initial forecast at the beginning of the year. In the latest September monthly report, the EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. In addition, the EIA raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but it expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. OPEC maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [99]. US Crude Oil Data - As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil imports increased by 803,000 barrels per day to 6.495 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices reached a new high on September 29, with Chow Sang Sang gold rising by 3 CNY per gram to 1111 CNY per gram, marking the highest price among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold increased by 8 CNY per gram, pricing at 1019 CNY per gram, which remains the lowest among the listed stores [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices narrowed to 92 CNY, indicating significant variation in pricing across different brands [1] Group 2: Gold Store Pricing Overview - The detailed pricing for various gold stores on September 29, 2025, includes: - Lao Miao Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (down 2 CNY) - Liufu Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu Gold: 1065 CNY per gram (up 5 CNY) - Jin Zun Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 1110 CNY per gram (up 2 CNY) - Chao Hong Ji Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold: 1111 CNY per gram (up 3 CNY) - Cai Bai Gold: 1058 CNY per gram (no change) - Shanghai China Gold: 1019 CNY per gram (up 8 CNY) - Zhou Da Sheng Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [1] Group 3: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also saw an increase, with Chow Sang Sang platinum jewelry rising by 15 CNY per gram to 648 CNY per gram [1] Group 4: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price slightly decreased by 2.3 CNY per gram, with notable differences among brands: - Heavy Gold: 849.50 CNY per gram - Cai Zi Gold: 852.70 CNY per gram - Chow Sang Sang Gold: 842.00 CNY per gram - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 851.30 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 860.20 CNY per gram [2] Group 5: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price maintained an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3818.87 USD per ounce, marking a new historical high [4] - As of the latest update, the gold price was reported at 3812.12 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.40% increase [4] - Market concerns regarding a potential government shutdown in the U.S. have heightened risk aversion, contributing to the rise in gold prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, are also influencing market dynamics, with the U.S. considering military support for Ukraine [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong performance of non-ferrous metals is mainly influenced by risk aversion, financial attributes, and emergencies. However, the downstream spot demand and industry fundamentals have not shown significant improvement. The non-ferrous metal market is highly uncertain during the National Day holiday, so excessive optimism is not advisable [11]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamentals - The US will impose a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting from October 1, which, along with Sino-US trade disputes, will have an adverse impact on non-ferrous metals [1]. - Global geopolitical risks are rising. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified Middle East conflicts, and border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have led to a strong support for precious metals due to risk aversion, and also support the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals, benefiting copper and slightly benefiting other metals [2]. - Global economic data has been poor since August, and it is unlikely to improve rapidly in the future, which is a negative factor for non-ferrous metals [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in September. The market expects two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December, and market sentiment is neutral [5]. - China's central bank emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. With stable money and credit data in August, the market expects no immediate interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio cuts, and domestic policy may enter a stable period, with a near - neutral impact [6]. Spot Supply and Demand Situation - Eight departments jointly issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 5% in added value from 2025 - 2026, and an average annual increase of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals [7]. - The traditional peak season for non - ferrous metals in China has weakened this year. The spot market has not shown an obvious peak - season trend, and the spot end has not effectively supported the market. Attention should be paid to the spot demand around the National Day [8]. - The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to a mudslide led to a 3.2% one - day increase in the three - month copper price on the LME. Although it caused short - term disturbances, the high inventory prevented obvious supply - demand mismatches, and the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [9]. - The suspension of car replacement subsidies in many regions and the change in vehicle purchase tax policy have brought uncertainty to the new energy vehicle market. The fluctuations in the automotive industry may have a significant impact on the downstream demand for non - ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, crude oil rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment all influenced the oil price. The supply gap of OPEC+ supported the oil price, while the increase in Iraqi oil export expectations and other factors brought downward pressure at times. The report suggests short - term trading within the 485 - 505 range and long - term investors to exit long positions on rallies [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Movement**: NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $65.19 per barrel, up 4.54% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $68.82 per barrel, up 4.19% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 495 yuan per barrel, up 1.64% for the week. Brent crude closed above $70 per barrel on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.2%, and WTI was close to $66 per barrel [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukraine attacked Russian ports, paralyzing oil facilities with a daily export capacity of about 2 million barrels. Russia extended its export ban on some energy products. The US pressured Turkey and NATO members to stop buying Russian oil, and the UN may re - impose sanctions on Iran, tightening global supply [5][6]. - **Supply - related News**: Iraq reached an agreement for the central government to receive and export Kurdish - produced oil. OPEC+ has a supply gap of nearly 500,000 barrels per day, mainly due to compensatory cuts and shrinking idle capacity [5][6][7]. - **Fund Positions**: As of the week of September 23, Brent crude futures' speculative net long positions decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts, while WTI crude net long positions increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. 3.2 Related News - Iraq's central government will take over the export of Kurdish - produced oil, aiming to solve the problem of lost fiscal revenue caused by the autonomous export of the Kurdish region [6]. - India asked the US to allow it to buy oil from Iran and Venezuela if it is required to cut Russian oil imports, warning that cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could lead to a global oil price spike [6]. 3.3 Outlook - The supply gap of OPEC+ supports the upward movement of oil prices. Saudi Arabia may increase sales to make up for potential revenue losses and prove that other OPEC+ members' idle capacity is lower than expected [7]. - There is a risk that the US government may shut down before the National Day holiday in the Chinese domestic market, and investors should control their positions [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.65 to 64.28, with a growth rate of 1.02% [11]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the EIA inventory decreased by 60.7 million barrels to 414.754 million barrels on September 19 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of September 23 [20]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts as of September 23 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support the prices of precious metals in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram on 2025-09-26, with a change of 12.97 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 5,422.00, and the open interest was 219,666.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 10,551.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-26, with a change of 198.00 compared to the previous day and 308.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 212,236.00, and the open interest was 44,832.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111.00, and the open interest was 402,555.00 [1] - **International Gold**: The London gold spot price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,005.72 tons [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 46.37 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.90 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 101,291.00, and the open interest was 134,631.00 [1] - **International Silver**: The London silver spot price was 3.15 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.06 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The iShares Silver ETF holdings were 15,361.84 tons [1] Important Information - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months. The White House stated that Trump's drug tariffs do not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan, and the tariff rate is 15% instead of 100% [1] - On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted, and the Senate will reconvene to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives recently announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy requested by the Democrats, leading to a standoff between the two parties [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go long when the price falls. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]