上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 72183 | 1455 | 美国众议院少数党领袖杰弗瑞斯（民主党）周一称，因特朗普未许可，议长约翰逊等共和党人无法就政 府关门谈判。现停摆已13天，若民主党拒共和党临时拨款法案，或刷新最长停摆纪录。共和党愿公开谈 判解决事务，拒做"人质式"协商。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（10月14日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计72183千克，今日仓单较 上一日增加1455千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周二（10月14日）黄金期货开盘价929.50元/克，截至目前最高958.10元/克， 最低929.14元/克。截止发稿报938.98元/克，涨幅2.70%，成交量为555171手，持仓为228459手，日持仓 减少11537手。 ...

当地时间10月14日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第14天，影响在全美范围内持续蔓延。受危机影响，美国 联邦政府部分功能陷于停滞，旅行、教育、文化、科技乃至国防等领域均受波及，部分机构甚至还因此 出现管理混乱事件。当天，白宫管理和预算办公室表示，将在政府"停摆"期间继续裁减联邦机构员工。 多领域受波及 公共服务陷入混乱 据美国媒体12日报道，在美国联邦政府"停摆"期间，美国疾病控制和预防中心数百名雇员于10日晚收到 了错误的裁员通知，一度陷入"被解雇"的窘境。不过，美国政府雇员联合会表示，在约1300名收到通知 的雇员中，约有700人已经复职，但仍有约600人被裁员。 僵局持续 美政府或走向史上最长"停摆" 由于民主、共和两党在医保相关福利支出等方面严重对立，美国国会参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结 束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 "停摆"即将进入第三周，在民众生活遭受严重影响之际，两党仍在核心议题上互不让步，陷入僵持。 此外，美国史密森学会称，旗下数十家博物馆、研究中心和国家动物园自12日起全部因政府"停摆"关 闭。 另据报道，美国空中交通管制人员短缺问题 ...

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics, marking his first public appearance since the September FOMC meeting, with investors keenly awaiting insights on interest rate policy direction [1] - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September meeting, with nearly unanimous support, except for new board member Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with one faction advocating for further reductions this year, while another believes the current stance is sufficiently accommodative, adding uncertainty to future policy paths [1][2] Economic Context - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability is currently challenged by competing concerns, as signs of a cooling labor market suggest potential vulnerabilities in employment, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target for the past five years [2] - Powell's focus on the labor market could indicate room for one or two more rate cuts before year-end, whereas an emphasis on persistent inflation would raise the threshold for further easing, suggesting a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming October meeting [3] Data Challenges - The speech occurs amid a government shutdown that has halted the release of key employment and inflation reports, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions [1][3] - Investors currently perceive a 97% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, highlighting market expectations despite the lack of new economic data [3]

新华财经北京10月14日电 美国联邦政府"停摆"13日进入第13天，财政部长贝森特表示，这一轮"停 摆"已开始影响国家经济。美国共和党籍众议院议长迈克·约翰逊当天预测称，此次"停摆"时长可能成 为"历史之最"。 联邦政府"停摆"影响在全美范围持续蔓延。美国媒体报道，空中交通管制人员短缺造成更多航班延误， 12日全美近8000架次航班延误，270多个航班取消。政府"停摆"还影响农户补贴发放和小企业贷款。联 邦政府经济数据推迟发布导致企业难以制定未来规划。 《今日美国报》网站报道，政府"停摆"使数百万美国人依赖的国家洪水保险计划"面临瘫痪"。许多人因 不能获得联邦洪灾保险而无法办理住房抵押贷款。许多房主可能会在没有洪灾保险的情况下面临大西洋 飓风季长达两个月甚至更久的灾害天气。 美联社报道，如果"停摆"持续到10月底，包括数千名众议院助理在内的政府工作人员将拿不到工资。 正在走向"史上最长" 美国联邦政府最近、也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在2018年末至2019年初，当时国会没能通过包含美墨边 境"筑墙"费用的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府"停摆"35天。 "情况越来越严重" 美国联邦政府"停摆"即将进入第三周。贝森特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are experiencing a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, influenced by fluctuations in international gold prices and market sentiment regarding economic conditions and monetary policy [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) is down 7.64%, trading at HKD 32.88 [1] - China Gold International (02099) has decreased by 6.6%, currently at HKD 134.5 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 5.67%, now at HKD 32.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) is down 4.01%, trading at HKD 40.2 [1] Market Conditions - International gold prices saw a sharp decline, briefly dropping below USD 4,120 per ounce before rebounding, after previously surpassing the USD 4,170 mark [1] - CITIC Futures noted that trade tensions and expectations of monetary easing are driving gold prices, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock [1] - The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, leading to a market sentiment of "no data is bullish," which continues to drive buying [1] - A potential short-term technical correction may occur if overbought conditions arise, with USD 4,000 identified as a key support level, and increased price volatility could trigger profit-taking [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 13th day, significantly impacting the economy and the lives of citizens, as stated by Treasury Secretary Becerra [1][3] - The ongoing political stalemate between the two parties has left the public as the primary victims of the shutdown [1][6] Economic Impact - The shutdown is affecting the real economy and the daily lives of citizens, with federal employees and service agency staff facing wage suspensions [3] - Federal assistance to farmers has been halted, and small businesses are experiencing delays in loan approvals [3][4] - The shutdown is causing increased airport delays due to unpaid air traffic controllers, leading to operational bottlenecks even in open government departments [3] Political Stalemate - The Senate is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, but both parties continue to blame each other for the impasse, with no clear resolution in sight [6] - Republican House Speaker Johnson criticized the Democrats for causing essential services to stagnate, while Democratic leaders expressed willingness to negotiate but distrust towards Republicans [6] - Historical research indicates that parties using government shutdowns as leverage often face backlash from public opinion, suggesting that neither party will emerge as a true winner in this situation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with attention on policy expectations and the possible correction of the current off-peak season expectation. There are risks such as intensified China-US tariff friction, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical risks, while there are also investment opportunities in commodities like gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, the economic pressure increased marginally, with economic data showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", and external tariff pressure rising. To counter the external pressure, China has frequently mentioned stable growth policies, with new policy-based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and in September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. On October 13, the A-share market opened lower and closed higher, with sectors such as rare earths leading the rise. [1][5] - China-US tariff friction has intensified. As the postponement of China-US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing additional tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with export control measures on the rare earth industry chain. There are concerns about the risk of tariff escalation before the South Korea APEC Summit from October 28 to November 1. [2] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week after the Senate rejected the temporary funding bill in the sixth round of voting on October 8. Trump has repeatedly said he will use the shutdown to dismiss federal employees, and US economic data releases have been affected. The market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, attention is mainly on gold, non-ferrous metals, etc. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long-term supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector remains unresolved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The first-phase ceasefire agreement in Gaza has taken effect. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term but need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the impact of China-US negotiations. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen, with the spot gold rising 2% on October 13 and COMEX silver rising 6% to a high since the end of 2012, mainly driven by risk aversion. [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals on dips. [4] Key News - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, exports (in RMB) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.5%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan. In September, exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%. The trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars. [5] - China's rare earth exports in September were 4,000.3 tons, and imports were 6,864.7 tons. From January to September, the total rare earth exports were 48,355.7 tons. [5] - On October 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19% to 3,889.5 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.93%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.29%, and the STAR 50 rose 1.4%. The A-share market turnover was 2.37 trillion yuan. Sectors such as rare earths and lithography machines led the rise, while consumer electronics, robotics, and CRO concepts led the decline. [5] - In the first three quarters, due to the decline in the prices of some international commodities, the import growth rate and data performance were affected. However, in terms of quantity, the import quantity index increased by 0.6% year-on-year. As of September, imports had increased for four consecutive months. Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the imports of crude oil and metal ore sands increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, and the imports of food, tobacco, alcohol, and cultural and entertainment products increased by 10.2% and 9.4% respectively. With the removal of restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, the imports of foreign-invested enterprises increased by 1.1%. [5]

当地时间13日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已进入第13天，美财政部长贝森特表示，这一轮"停摆"已开始影响 国家经济。外媒指出，政府"停摆"苦果开始真正显现，在两党持续博弈的情况下，美国民众成为真正的 输家。 01 "停摆"苦果显现民众生活受影响 据路透社报道，贝森特在福克斯商业频道的一档节目中说，"情况越来越严重"，政府"停摆"开始影响实 体经济，影响民众生活。 此外，随着包括空中交通管制员在内的工作人员拿不到工资，机场延误正在加剧。其他无薪工作的员工 也往往会出现更多缺勤，这或将导致即使在政府保持开放的职能部门，也会遭遇瓶颈。 他说，为保证军饷发放，联邦政府不得不暂停支付其他联邦雇员和服务机构员工的工资，其中包括史密 森学会下属博物馆和国家动物园。 贝森特说，"我们不得不调整计划，不得不让华盛顿特区和全国各地的员工暂时休假"，他还重申，政 府"停摆"导致美国对农民的援助停滞。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩说，"全国各地的家庭已经感受到了影响，而且情形即将大幅恶化。" 美国《华尔街日报》报道指出，政府"停摆"增加了日常交易的麻烦。联邦政府向小企业提供的贷款被搁 置。由于美国证券交易委员会的大部分员工都处于无薪休假状态 ...

特朗普没想到中国的反应如此强硬，甚至比他预期的还要更激烈。面对中国的反击，他表示非常震惊，并迅速宣布将对中国商品加征100%关税，计划于11 月1号生效。特朗普的政府成员也跟着表态，强调美国已经做好了全面应对的准备，并坚称美国的民众已经团结一致。但现实是，美国的财政状况已经岌岌 可危，连军饷可能都发不出来。 中方反击：中国不退让，特朗普愕然 中美关税战持续僵持，早在这场贸易争端初期，中国就明确表示愿意谈判，但必须有诚意。然而，美方始终没有展现出放下姿态，反而不断施加压力。近 期，中国做出了几项重要反制措施，令特朗普感到措手不及。 首先，中国扩大了对稀土的出口管制，将五种关键稀土及相关炼油技术纳入监管范围。此外，中国宣布自10月14日起，对涉及美国的船舶加征特别港务费， 直接回应美国此前对中国海运业的打压。这一系列反制措施让特朗普难以应对。 特朗普在10月10日通过社交平台发文表示，中国的行为"令人震惊且糟糕"，并威胁要对所有中国商品征收100%的额外关税，甚至可能限制对飞机零部件的 出口。他一边大声宣称，"美国有两种替代品"，指责中国在稀土方面垄断，但事实上，中国掌控着全球90%以上的稀土加工能力。美国在短期 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that U.S. stocks experienced significant declines on "Black Friday" due to comments from Trump regarding tariffs on China, which may lead to a cycle of "threat-negotiation-exemption" [1][7] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts increasing, particularly a 25 basis point cut in October [1][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the impact of government shutdowns on data releases, while suggesting a favorable outlook for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][7] Group 2 - The report indicates mixed performance in global equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 showing the highest increase of 5.07%, while the Hang Seng Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines of 3.13% and 2.73%, respectively [2][29] - In the commodities market, COMEX silver and gold saw increases of 2.75% and 2.68%, respectively, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced a significant drop of 4.04% [24][43] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains a concern, with initial jobless claims data not being released due to the government shutdown, highlighting the uncertainty in economic indicators [8][29]