1月5日盘中，沪铝期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上下探至23780.00元。截止发稿，沪铝主力合 约报23565.00元，涨幅3.63%。 沪铝期货主力涨超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 申银万国期货 中长期沪铝继续保持乐观 铜冠金源期货 铝价或有高位调整 国信期货 预计沪铝震荡偏强运行 申银万国期货：中长期沪铝继续保持乐观 假期期间，伦铝自2022年以来首次突破3000美元/吨，上涨0.8%。金银铜涨势暂缓后，铝作为前期跟随 品种迎来补涨，预计节后沪铝也将迎来补涨。美国11月数据先后发布，部分美联储官员向市场传递暂停 降息的信号，但2026年美联储主席换届或对市场降息预期产生影响，宏观层面可能更多关注点在于就业 的衰退风险和后续美联储降息预期的节奏。中短期电解铝供应端未见明显扰动，国内供应面临政策刚性 限制，海外面临投产不及预期，需求面由于今年春节相对偏晚，尽管下游开工率出现边际下滑迹象，需 求整体尚可，后续需关注随着春节逐渐临近，下游走弱节奏对价格的影响，随着新疆发运好转、在途库 存上升，社会库存有所积累，短期关注沪铝补涨的强度和持续性，中长期建议继续保持乐观。 铜冠金源 ...

2026年才开年，全球资产市场就迎来双重重要变量：南美地缘政治风险与OPEC+核心成员国的产量共识，或对油 价、金价、美元、美股等核心全球资产价格形成差异化、多维度冲击，短期情绪驱动与长期基本面重构的博弈贯穿 市场。 委内瑞拉地缘风险影响几何？ 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，于2023年，委内瑞拉已探明原油储量居于世界首位，越达3,030亿桶，约占全 球储量的17%，见下图。 尽管储量巨大，但美国能源信息署的数据显示，2023年委内瑞拉的原油产量仅占全球总产量的0.8%。该国的大部分 已探明石油储量属于奥利诺科带的超重质原油，开采需要更高水平的技术能力。 在美国对委实施禁令之前，美国是委内瑞拉原油的最大进口国，其重质原油非常适合美国炼油厂，尤其墨西哥湾沿 岸的炼油厂，其余大部分原油则销往印度、中国和欧洲。自2019年美国对其实施全面禁令后，委内瑞拉很大一部分 原油出口都属于石油换贷款安排，也就是用原油抵偿债务。 美国能源信息署的同一份报告显示，截至2023年，委内瑞拉拥有195万亿立方英尺的巨大天然气储量，占南美天然气 总储量的73%，该国的大部分天然气储量为伴生气，大约八成的天然气来自石油开采过程。委 ...

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $74.42, with a recent price of $75.02, reflecting a 3.31% increase, and has seen a high of $76.30 and a low of $72.88 during the session [1] - The U.S. military's intervention in Venezuela may weaken the dollar's credibility and international image, potentially providing support for precious metal prices [1] - Demand in industrial sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to outstrip supply for silver, maintaining low inventory levels [1] - Many Wall Street hedge fund managers acknowledge that current silver prices are overvalued by approximately 30%, yet they are reluctant to exit their positions [1] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may also support silver prices, with current pricing reflecting two anticipated cuts of 25 basis points this year [1] - A decrease in interest rates could lower the opportunity cost of holding silver, benefiting this non-yielding precious metal [1] - Upcoming U.S. employment indicators, including the December non-farm payroll report, are expected to attract significant market attention, particularly as it will be the first normal monthly data since the end of the government shutdown [1] Group 2 - London silver's early trading saw an increase supported by EMA50, gaining bullish momentum, particularly as it rose alongside the main bullish trend line [2] - The relative strength index reached oversold levels, indicating potential for continued upward movement in prices [2]

新年首个交易日来了！ 在美国周末对委内瑞拉发起"斩首式"军事行动、强行抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，全球投资者在新年伊始正面临地缘政治风险的再度大幅升温。周一开盘 后，国际油价在小幅低开后走高又转跌、现货黄金和白银价格则大幅上涨。 新华社1月5日报道，美国总统特朗普4日号称，美国已"掌控"委内瑞拉。 黄金、白银大涨 1月5日早间，贵金属集体大涨。Wind数据显示，现货黄金重回4400美元关口，日内涨幅扩大至1.6%；现货白银一度涨超4%，现报75.46美元/盎司。 国内商品期货市场开盘，贵金属板块同样大涨，钯金以9.14%的涨幅领涨，铂金涨7.80%，沪银、沪金涨逾1%。 受美封锁影响 委内瑞拉被迫削减原油产量 据央视新闻报道，1月5日，有消息指出，受美国石油封锁及制裁压力影响，委内瑞拉石油出口量几乎降至零，其国内储油设施接近饱和，委内瑞拉国家石 油公司已开始削减原油产量，并启动关闭部分油田和井组的应急措施。 据了解，美国对委内瑞拉油轮运输实施封锁，导致原油无法外运，原油库存持续累积。同时，用于调和委内瑞拉重质原油的稀释剂供应日益短缺，进一步 制约生产活动。 分析指出，尽管委内瑞拉石油基础设施未在近期美方军事行动 ...

Bigger mind, Bigger fortune 智慧创造财富 2026 年 1 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 月股指展望 业绩+美联储扰动,偏强能否延续? 核心观点: 2026 年 1 月股指延续偏强概率较大，但上行空间受业绩验证效果 与美联储降息预期扰动限制。核心驱动来自两方面，一是跨年后 资金面边际趋松,叠加公募基金开年布局需求,资金面环境对股 指形成支撑;二是政策托底力度持续,12 月中央经济工作会议定 调后,国补扩围、房地产增值税调整等配套政策落地,强化市场 对稳增长的预期。关键变量聚焦美联储主席提名落地与 1月末议息 会议,美国就业、通胀数据将扰动降息预期,成为股指主要波动 来源, 此外 A 股当前估值分位偏高,需警惕若业绩预告不及预期 或引发高估值板块回调。风格方面，1 月市场波动加大，大盘股指 防御属性凸显，叠加险资"开门红"配置偏好低估值蓝筹，大盘 股指相对占优。 风险提示: 业绩预告不及预期引发估值回调、美联储政策超预期 鹰派、地缘政治冲突升级。 南华研究院 权益与固收研究组 廖臣悦 Z0022951 liaocy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 ( 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The US military action in Venezuela is an upgrade of the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" strategy, which has led to a sharp increase in global risk aversion and a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. However, in the long - term, it may accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, but the trend is non - linear [4]. - The domestic PMI in December exceeded expectations, driven by the recovery of supply and demand and price stabilization. The overseas market focuses on the next Fed chair nominee. For silver, it's recommended that holders take profits and non - holders wait for a pullback [2]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be strong but with limited upside due to multiple factors. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today, and medium - term long positions can be held [5][6]. - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and index adjustments, but the long - term bullish foundation remains. Gold and silver are in adjustment in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper prices are expected to be affected by volume and price changes. Zinc, tin, lead, and other metals have different market outlooks based on their fundamentals [9][13][15]. - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a neutral pattern and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices are affected by inventory and demand. Ferroalloys may correct but are supported by cost [26][27][30]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are in a neutral situation and can be observed first. LPG may be supported in the short - term by geopolitical factors. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by supply and demand and cost. Methanol is likely to start an upward - trending phase. PP and PE are in a supply - demand double - reduction pattern. Asphalt may be strong at the opening. Urea has a price increase expectation for the 05 contract. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate [32][34][39]. - Hog prices are expected to be supported in the short - term by consumption and supply changes. Oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Oils may strengthen slightly. Cotton prices may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar prices are expected to open slightly lower. Apples may wait for a pullback to go long. Red dates are expected to be in a low - level shock [65][67][68] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to geopolitical risks such as the US attack on Venezuela and the situation in Iran. The reset of the commodity benchmark index poses a selling risk to gold and silver [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The US military action in Venezuela has led to an increase in global risk aversion. The US dollar may show a short - long and long - short pattern, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [4]. - Stock Index: The post - holiday capital environment supports the stock index, but there are many factors restricting its upside, and it is expected to be strong but with limited space in the short - term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are beneficial to the bond market, and the US military action in Venezuela may also benefit the bond market. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Prices were volatile last week. In the short - term, they will be affected by the US military action in Venezuela and index adjustments. In the long - term, the bullish foundation remains. It's recommended to be vigilant against callback risks in the short - term [9][13]. - Gold & Silver: They are in adjustment in the short - term. Gold should pay attention to the support levels, and silver has adjustment pressure. They are bullish in the long - term [14][15]. - Copper: The external copper price was stable during the holiday. The US - Venezuela event has limited impact on the domestic opening. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [16][18]. - Zinc: The upper space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [19]. - Tin: The high - price negative feedback has come, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but there is a risk of large fluctuations. In the long - term, it has the opportunity to go long on dips [20][22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and it has the value of long - term position building on dips. Polysilicon prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rise [22][24]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17600, with strong support at 16500 [24]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: Steel production has slightly increased, and the market is in a weak shock pattern. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil 2605 is between 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron Ore: The inventory continues to accumulate. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is expected to fluctuate [27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the future price depends on the domestic mine resumption. The coke supply - demand structure may improve if the steel mills' production increases [28][29]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They may correct in the short - term, but the cost provides support below [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to observe first [32][33]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors may provide short - term support. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [34][35]. - PTA - PX: They fluctuate with cost. PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter, and PTA processing fees are expected to rise with limited space [36][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The valuation is under pressure before the macro - narrative is realized [40][43]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending phase, and attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and MTO profit [44][45]. - PP: The supply and demand are both decreasing. The core concern is the scale of January's device maintenance [46][48]. - PE: Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term disturbances. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weakening [48][50]. - Asphalt: The short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances caused by the US - Venezuela conflict [51][52]. - Urea: The 05 contract has a price increase expectation, and it is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [54][55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation, glass has high inventory pressure, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely with weak fundamentals [56][57][59]. - Logs: The price has limited fluctuation space, and it is recommended to observe or use a small - interval grid strategy [60][61][62]. - Propylene: The domestic supply is loose, and the price may be affected by cost in the short - term with limited upward space [63]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The approaching Spring Festival and the decrease in average出栏 weight may support the price in the short - term [65][67]. - Oilseeds: They show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply rhythm of imported soybeans affects the price, and the supply of domestic bean粕 and菜粕 has different situations [68][69][70]. - Oils: They may strengthen slightly after the holiday, and palm oil is relatively strong within the sector [71]. - Cotton: The price may correct in the short - term due to factors such as weak downstream demand, but it has an upward space in the long - term [72][73]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to open slightly lower, suppressed by the decline in the external market [74][75]. - Apples: The consumption slowdown causes short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [76][77]. - Red Dates: They are in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to oversupply [78].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing a steady appreciation against the US dollar, driven by multiple factors including year-end settlement demand and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 31, the CFETS yuan exchange rate index rose to 97.99, up 0.35% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket index reached 104.67, up 0.25%, marking a new high since April 2025; and the SDR currency basket index hit 92.71, up 0.26%, the highest since March 2025 [1]. - The yuan's midpoint against the US dollar was reported at 7.0288, the highest since September 30, 2024, with a cumulative increase of 1596 basis points in 2025 [1]. - The offshore yuan broke through 6.97 against the US dollar on January 2, reaching its highest level since May 2023 [1]. Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Analysts attribute the yuan's appreciation to the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, and increased corporate settlement demand at the end of the year [2]. - The seasonal strengthening of the yuan is also linked to the release of accumulated settlement demand from high export growth [2]. - The counter-cyclical policy has moderated the pace of the yuan's appreciation, indicating a preference for a gradual increase in the exchange rate [2]. Outlook for 2026 - The yuan is expected to continue its appreciation trend in 2026, influenced by the relative strength of the US and Chinese economies, changes in US interest rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships [3][4]. - The potential for a 4-5% annual appreciation of the yuan is seen as not detrimental to China's export sector, with a forecasted exchange rate range against the US dollar between 6.7 and 7.1 [4]. - The CFETS index is projected to fluctuate between 97 and 103, with a maximum appreciation of around 5% anticipated for the year [4].

【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货近期呈现高位震荡，地缘政治风险与美联储降息预期支撑金价。技术面看，多头需突破 4500美元关键阻力以确认上行趋势，空头则关注4250美元支撑。当前初步阻力位于4453美元，进一步阻 力为4475美元；初步支撑在4400美元，若跌破可能下探4367美元。市场情绪受避险需求主导，但需警惕 技术性回调风险。操作上，建议多头等待突破4500美元后入场，空头在4475美元附近逢高试空，止损设 于关键点位上方。 美国费城联储主席、2026年FOMC新晋票委安娜·保尔森在上周六美国经济学会年会的准备讲稿中表 示，若经济前景保持良性，2026年晚些时候适度降息可能是合适的。她预计通胀将有所缓和，劳动力市 场趋于稳定，全年经济增长约2%，在此情况下，今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行适度调整是合理 的。 保尔森指出，劳动力市场风险仍较高，需求减速快于特朗普政府打击移民政策带来的供应收缩，但失业 保险申请已趋稳，劳动力市场虽承压但未崩溃。她认为当前政策仍略显限制性，有助于维持通胀下行， 推动其逐步回到美联储2%的目标。 对于关税影响，保尔森承认其可能使2026年上半年通胀保持在高位，但预计下半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant upward movement, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and heightened geopolitical tensions that are fostering safe-haven demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose by 1.59% to $4,400.530 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the growing market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Data - Key upcoming events include the potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may lead to technical adjustments in gold and silver positions, with estimated sell-off volumes potentially accounting for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December, set to be released on January 9, is expected to significantly impact gold prices [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, including military actions and diplomatic statements, are contributing to the rise in safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone attacks in Russia, attributed to Ukraine, which adds to the overall geopolitical uncertainty [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 82.8% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1% [4]. - The dual influence of monetary policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment is expected to continue driving gold prices in the near term [4].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时"管理"委内 瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱 1 月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于 1 月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选， 称已有心仪人选且未改变。国内 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，升至扩张区间， 经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人 持有债基超过 7 日、机构持有债基超过 30 日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流 动性、交易属性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动 空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内 瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在 美国代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响 在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开 始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美 ...