2. 英国央行行长贝利：英镑走强与美国不确定性有关。利率仍走在逐步下行的道路上。 其它： 1. 在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度升破7.16，创逾7个月新高。 1. 美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口创疫情以来最大降幅；第一季度GDP下修。 2. 市场动荡推动花旗对冲基金外汇交易量激增。 3. 美联储-①戴利：秋季降息看起来是有希望的。②柯林斯：7月降息可能为时过早。③古尔斯比：特朗 普提前宣布鲍威尔继任者不会对FOMC产生任何影响。④ 巴尔金：关税将开始推高通胀。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月27日） 美元： 主要非美货币： 1. 欧洲央行管委诺特：我们不能排除欧洲央行再次降息的可能性。 2. 新台币兑美元升破29整数关口，创逾三年两个月高位。 3. 韩国财政部：如有需要，韩国将在下半年进一步发行外汇稳定债券。 4. 匈牙利央行：预计2025年调整后核心通胀率平均为4.7%，2026年为4.0%。 美元/离岸人民币 ...

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]

Ethereum Economy Overview - Ethereum 上的公司和 DAO 在过去 365 天内产生了约 73 亿美元的费用 [1] Top Market Sectors - 前五大市场领域：稳定币发行商、流动性质押、借贷、DEX 和 RWA 发行商 [1] Top Companies & DAOs - 前十大公司和 DAO：Tether、Circle、Lido Finance、Uniswap、Aave、Flashbots、SkyEcosystem、Ethena Labs、Morpho Labs、Convex Finance [1]

美国商务部26日公布的最终修正数据显示，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算萎 缩0.5%，较此前公布的初次估值和修正值明显下调。美国商务部表示，这一数据主要反映消费者支出 和出口数据的下调。具体来看，一季度进口环比增幅下调至37.9%，出口增幅下调至0.4%，净进口对一 季度GDP拖累近4.7个百分点。受服务数据下调影响，占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出对一季度 GDP的贡献下调至约0.3个百分点。分析人士认为，美国一季度经济萎缩主要是由于美国关税政策导致 进口大幅增加，关税对通胀的影响是下一步关注重点。美国商务部通常会根据不断完善的信息对季度经 济数据进行三次估算。(新华社) ...

美国商务部周四报告称，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易战扰乱商业活动，美国经济在今年1月至3月期间以 0.5%的年化季率萎缩，这是一次出乎意料的下修。 由于美国企业赶在特朗普可能对其课征关税前引进外国商品，导致进口激增，美国第一季度的经济增长 因此受到拖累。灭国商务部此前估算第一季度经济萎缩0.2%。经济学家们曾预测，商务部的第三次也 是最后一次估算值将不会有任何改变。 美国GDP在第一季度的下滑逆转了2024年最后三个月2.4%的增长，并标志着三年来的首次萎缩。其 中，进口激增37.9%，为2020年以来最快增速，并将GDP拉低了近4.7个百分点。 此外，联邦政府支出以4.6%的年率下降，是自2022年以来的最大降幅。 贸易逆差会减少GDP，但这只是个数学问题。GDP理应只计算国内生产的部分，而不包括从国外进口的 商品。因此，进口——在GDP报告中表现为消费者支出或商业投资——必须被减去，以防止它们人为地 夸大国内生产。 美国第一季度的进口涌入情况，在4月至6月的第二季度可能不会重演，因此可能不会对第二季度的GDP 造成压力。事实上，根据数据公司FactSet对预测者的调查，经济学家预计美国第二季度经济增长将反弹 ...

Economic Indicators - Preliminary durable goods orders surged by 164% [2] - Trade balance deficit reached minus 966 billion [1] - Capital good orders non-defense xir increased by 17% [3] - Shipments rose by 05% [4] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 236000, the lowest since mid-year [7] - Continuing claims remained over 1974 million for five consecutive weeks [7][8] GDP and Consumption - First quarter GDP revised to minus 05%, the weakest since Q1 2022 [4][5] - Consumption dropped to 05% from 12% [6] Inflation - Price index increased to 38%, one-tenth higher than 37% [6] - PCE core moved to 35%, one-tenth higher than 34% [6]

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花旗将中国2025GDP增速预期从4.7%上调至5%。 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index slightly decreased by 0.15%, closing at 5967.84 points, down from 5976.97 points the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 1.47%, but is down 2.87% from the closing high of 6144.15 points on February 19, 2025 [1] - The index has risen 19.77% from the recent low of 4982.77 points on April 8 [1] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains last week, down from 4 the previous week [1] - Year-to-date sector performance shows a 15.21% difference, with the industrial sector leading at 7.78% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector is the worst performer, down 7.43% [1] - For 2024, the sector performance gap is 40.71%, with communication services up 38.89% and materials down 1.83% [1] - The energy sector performed best last week with a 1.10% increase, year-to-date up 3.28%, and up 5.67% from the end of 2023 [1] - The information technology sector ranked second with a 0.88% increase last week, year-to-date up 1.91%, and up 38.28% from the end of 2023 [1] - The financial sector was third with a 0.81% increase last week, year-to-date up 3.90%, and up 33.44% from the end of 2023 [1] - The healthcare sector was the worst performer last week, down 2.66%, year-to-date down 4.02%, and down 3.16% from the end of 2023 [1] - Communication services fell 1.73% last week, year-to-date up 3.80%, and up 44.16% from the end of 2023 [1] Trading Activity - Daily trading volume increased by 15% last week, up 2% from the previous week [2] - Trading volume was 29% higher than the one-year average and 37% higher than the five-year historical average [2] - The VIX index closed at 20.48, down from 20.65 the previous week, with a trading range of 18.67-21.79 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.38% from 4.41% the previous week [2] - Crude oil prices rose to $75 per barrel from $73.46 the previous week [2] - Gold prices fell to $3381.40 from $3452.10 the previous week [2] Earnings Reports - As of the first quarter of 2025, 497 companies have reported earnings, with 383 exceeding expectations and 310 surpassing sales expectations [2] - Earnings are expected to decline by 6.0% compared to Q4 2024, but increase by 5.3% compared to Q1 2024 [2] - Sales are projected to decrease by 4.0% from the record Q4 2024, but increase by 3.5% compared to Q1 2024 [2] - Operating profit margins are expected to drop from 12.04% in Q4 2024 and 11.58% in Q1 2024 to 11.78% [2] Economic Reports - A series of economic reports are scheduled for release this week, including PMI composite initial value, existing home sales, and various price indices [3] - Reports will also cover consumer confidence, mortgage applications, new home sales, and weekly jobless claims [3] - Additional data on durable goods orders, GDP, corporate profits, international trade, and retail inventory will be released [3] - The week will conclude with reports on personal income and spending, as well as consumer sentiment [3]

June 20, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Waiting on the world to change The Fed remained on hold at the June meeting. The FOMC expects to see the effects of tariffs on inflation in the summer, as do we. Key Takeaways US Economics Weekly | North America 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Nov-26 Core PCE (%) y/y (%) 3-month SAAR (%) MS Forecast Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts M ...