Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].

Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold and oil markets, highlighting the impact of economic data and geopolitical events on prices [2][6]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The market reacted to the CPI data with a short-term drop in the U.S. dollar and a spike in gold prices, indicating a temporary optimistic sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging oscillation between $3450 and $3250, with recent price action indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend [3]. - After testing support levels around $3270/3280, gold prices rebounded but faced resistance at $3410, leading to a significant drop below key support levels [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on resistance levels between $3358 and $3370, while support levels are identified around $3335 to $3310 [5]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market saw a slight increase in prices due to the extension of tariff pauses between the U.S. and major Asian countries, alleviating trade concerns [6]. - Brent crude oil futures were reported at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $63.89 per barrel, indicating a stable market environment [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a downward trend, with a potential trading range identified between $62.80 and $64.60 [7].

Core Insights - The core inflation level in the U.S. accelerated in July to its highest level since the beginning of the year, driven by a rebound in service prices, raising concerns about the impact of tariff policies [1][4] - The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1][4] - Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained steady year-on-year at 2.7%, slightly below economists' expectations [1][4] Service Costs - Service prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase this year, with significant jumps in airfare, healthcare, and entertainment services [4] - Housing costs, as the largest component of the service sector, saw residential prices increase by 0.2% for the second consecutive month, while hotel accommodation prices continued to decline [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve is facing new challenges as rising service prices may complicate efforts to control inflation, with ongoing debates about the long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs [4][6] - The average hourly wage, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on consumer spending expectations [6] Data Collection Concerns - There are growing concerns about the quality of economic data, particularly CPI data collection, due to budget cuts and staffing reductions, leading to a temporary decrease in data collection in several states [7] - The proportion of "cross-unit estimates" in CPI data has risen significantly, indicating potential volatility in the reported figures, although economists believe this will not lead to bias in CPI data [7][8]

尽管对美国经济数据可靠性的质疑日益加剧，但金融市场却对任何"超预期"的信号表现出异常强烈的反应，尤其是通胀数据。 面对一个依赖数据的中央银行，这种矛盾现象正挑战着传统的市场分析框架。据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Jan Hatzius及其团队的最新报告显示，包括 非农就业、CPI在内的多项美国顶级官方调查，其数据质量正因调查回复率的持续下降而受到侵蚀。 不过报告也指出，并非所有指标的修正幅度都在扩大。近年来，经历较大修正的指标（17个）与较小修正的指标（15个）数量几乎相当。一些指标的大幅 修正另有原因，例如初请失业金人数和纽约联储制造业指数的修正，主要是为了修复疫情期间引入的季节性扭曲。 然而，数据质量的下降并未削弱其市场影响力。报告显示，市场对数据意外的敏感度自三年前急剧上升后，至今仍维持在高位。这种反应在通胀数据上尤 为突出，债券市场对通胀意外的敏感性仍达到正常水平的2.7倍，股市敏感性为正常水平的1.4倍。 这种数据质量下降直接推高了标准误差，使得数据点估计值的置信区间扩大。高盛分析显示，目前标准误差平均比2015-2019年高出26%，其中职位空缺 数据的标准误差增加87000个，相当于90%置信区间 ...

美联储政策重心如何权衡？ 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，截至6月，美国企业承担了64%的成本。消费者承担了22%的关税，而 外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。但这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者 将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为25%，美国公司为8%。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，看看更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和 外国出口商之间分配。与此同时，消费者日益增长的疲劳感使提高总体价格变得更加困难。该行继续预 计通胀将在今年下半年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左 右。 政策前景 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响 范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动， 并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政策宽松的节奏。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测，7月份CPI指数将带来关税上涨推高价格的进一步迹象 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团的研究显示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策对消费者价格的影响才刚刚开 始，这给本已因利率下调预期而动荡不安的美国国债市场增添了更多不确定性。 高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius等人在报告中写道，美国企业迄今承担了特朗普关税的大部分冲击，但随着企 业提高价格，负担将越来越多地转嫁给消费者。 他们写道，截至6月，美国消费者估计吸收了22%的关税成本，但如果最新关税遵循前几年的征税模 式，消费者的负担比例将升至67%。 最终结果是：通胀加速。高盛分析师表示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标之一——核心个人消费支出价格指 数12月同比涨幅将达到3.2%。他们表示，扣除关税后的潜在通胀率将为2.4%。6月份该指数为2.8%。 这份报告进一步印证了经济学家普遍持有的观点：特朗普的全面关税将加剧通胀，而美联储政策不仅对 债券交易员，甚至对总统本人来说都已成为热门话题。特朗普打破常规，公开呼吁美联储降息，建议美 联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并在货币政策委员会中至少暂时增加一名盟友。 美国指南针组织创始人兼首席经济学家奥伦·卡斯在播客中表示："通胀，当然与央行制定货币政策有 关，它涉及整体价格水平的持续上涨。如果你选择一项 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月8日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 信息平淡下的缩量震荡 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，四大规模指数均小幅下降。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1152.63亿元。期指方面，各 品种均缩量，IC主力小幅上涨，其余期指均回落，多头情绪回落。 重要资讯 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.24 | -0.44 | 0.01 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 7.5164 | 3.9458 | 6.9645 | 15.7592 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.8105 | -0.9004 | -1.8301 | -3.7903 | | 持仓量（万手） | 25.0531 | 8.9786 | 21.4682 | 33.4195 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | -0.9906 | -0.3451 | -0.8103 | -1.1229 | source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国对等关税正式生效，进口一公斤金条已被加税 特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰担任美联储理事 俄总统助理：目标是下周举行俄美元首会晤 英国央行降息25个基点，破天荒被迫投票两次 免保育教育费政策覆盖所有幼儿园大班儿童 七部门部署脑机接口产业创新发展 欧洲主要股指涨跌互现，德国DAX30指数收涨1.12%；英国富时100指数收跌0.69%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨1.31%。 港股下探后回升，午后维持震荡走势，恒指收涨0.69%，重回两万五千点上方，报25081.63点。恒生科技指数收涨0.26%，报5546.73点。截至收盘，恒指大 市成交额2457.48亿港元。盘面上，电池股、稀土概念股涨幅居前，脑机接口概念股尾盘拉升；医药外包概念股领跌，药明系走低，军工股、药品股回调。 个股方面，南京熊猫电子股份(00553.HK)涨19.2%，曹操出行(02643.HK)涨18%，脑洞科技(02203.HK)涨9.3%，新世界发展(00017.HK)涨10.2%，天齐锂业 (0969 ...

高盛、花旗高喊50基点降息不无可能之际，美银却劝大家冷静。 据追风交易台消息，8月6日，美银在研报中警告，美国持续的通胀风险，特别是核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数可能很快突破3%的关口，使得美联 储任何过早的降息都可能是一次"虚假启动"。 该行因此维持其对美联储今年将维持利率不变的判断。报告指出，尽管近期就业数据有所放缓，但美联储面临的根本问题是通胀。核心PCE通胀年率在过 去一年里基本停滞在2.8%，较美联储2%的目标高出80个基点。 美银模拟测算显示，核心PCE通胀年率最早可能在7月就触及3%的水平。他们认为，随着关税成本越来越多地转嫁给消费者，通胀前景的风险"坚定地偏 向上行"，这要求美联储在决定下一步政策时必须保持耐心。 这一预测甚至可能都"过于乐观"。该行分析师指出，由于实际生效的关税税率正稳定在高于其当前假设的水平，这意味着通胀见顶的高度可能更高，停留 在3%以上的时间可能更长，并可能引发非线性效应，给通胀预期带来上行压力。 这一判断基于一个核心事实：过去一年，尽管美联储维持高利率，但核心通胀始终未能有效回落，粘性十足。 价格压力凸显 近期美国的经济数据描绘了一幅复杂的图景，但价格上行的压力信 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors including commodities, finance, and international affairs. It details price movements in global and domestic futures markets, significant macro - economic and policy events, and performance in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.08% at $3431.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.3% at $37.935 per ounce [2] - OPEC's production increase pressured oil prices, with the US oil main contract down 1.37% at $64.27 per barrel and Brent crude main contract down 1.29% at $66.77 per barrel [3] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME aluminum up 2.30% at $2621.50 per ton, LME zinc up 1.34% at $2795.00 per ton, LME lead up 1.19% at $1997.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.37% at $9674.00 per ton [3] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with coking coal and alumina up over 1%, and rapeseed meal and caustic soda down over 1% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic News - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange decided to restrict Du XX's account from opening new positions in the corresponding contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures (EC) 2510 contract for 1 month starting from August 6, 2025 [6] - Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on August 6 that three joint mining projects between Ukraine and the US are in preparation and will be implemented in the next 18 months [8] - Trump's advisors are pushing him to appoint interim Federal Reserve governors, and short - term appointments will give Trump more time to choose the Fed chair [8] - Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [9] - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed should respond to economic slowdown, and he still thinks two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [9] - Trump will impose a 100% tariff on imported goods containing semiconductors, exempting companies that produce in the US [10] - Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of the week ending August 2, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 948,753 kiloliters to 11,337,392 kiloliters, and gasoline inventory decreased by 12,487 kiloliters to 1,466,814 kiloliters [12] - As of the week ending August 4, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 2.024 million barrels to 19.072 million barrels [13] - On August 6, 2025, China's urea enterprise total inventory was 887,600 tons, down 29,700 tons from last week, a 3.24% decrease; methanol port inventory was 925,500 tons, up 117,100 tons from the previous period [14] - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab light crude oil for September to Asia, the US, and north - western Europe [14] - As of the week ending August 1, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [14] Metal Futures - Indonesia's PT Gresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of copper production [16] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [16] - From January to July 2025, the total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 29.05 trillion yuan, a 49.24% year - on - year increase [17] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1944 million tons, a 4.05% month - on - month increase and a 19.58% year - on - year increase [19] - Affected by mine production growth in July, zinc concentrate production may decline slightly in August due to mine maintenance in Sichuan and Yunnan [20] Black - Series Futures - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' steel inventory was 14.78 million tons, a 5.6% decrease from the previous ten - day period; daily average crude steel output was 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease from the previous period [22] - On August 6, coal supply in Ordos was still affected by rainfall and was in the recovery stage [23] - A coal mine in Lvliang Xingxian completed 106.9% of its coal production plan and 102.4% of its tunneling footage plan in the first half of the year, and plans to produce 5.784 million tons in the second half of the year [23] - Some coal mines received a 276 - working - day production plan notice, and their production is expected to decline [23] Agricultural Futures - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [26] - Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons [26] Financial Market Stock Market - On Wednesday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45% at 3633.99 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and ChiNext Index up 0.66%. Market turnover was 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of about 140 billion yuan from the previous day [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 24910.63 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.2%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.21%. Southbound funds net - bought nearly HK$9.5 billion [28] - As of August 6, 258 stocks in A - shares had doubled in price this year, with Shangwei New Materials leading with a more than 12 - fold increase [28] - In July, the number of private securities product filings reached 1298, a 18% month - on - month increase, a 27 - month high [30] - iQiyi responded that it has no more information regarding its potential HK$300 million listing in Hong Kong [31] - Uni - President China's first - half revenue was 17.087 billion yuan, a 10.6% year - on - year increase; net profit was 1.287 billion yuan, a 33.24% year - on - year increase [32] Industry News - In August, the retail industry prosperity index was 50.1%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [33] - Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming for a core industry scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2027 [33] - In the first half of this year, China's industrial and service robot production increased by 35.6% and 25.5% respectively year - on - year [33] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (for public comment)" [34] - The Securities Association of China is seeking opinions on the "Standard for the Stability Assurance System of the Securities Industry Information System (for public comment)" [35] - In July, the national passenger car retail sales were 1.834 million units, a 7% year - on - year increase; new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.003 million units, a 14% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.7% [37] - Starting from August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket [37] Overseas News - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky as early as next week to promote a cease - fire in Ukraine [38] - Fed's Daly said policy adjustment may be needed in the next few months, and the labor market has softened [38] - Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear [38] - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June 30, 2026 [39] - In July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [40] - The German government plans to set up a €100 billion investment fund for strategic industries [41] - Japan's nominal wage in June increased by 2.5% year - on - year, the largest increase since February [43] - As of January 1, Japan's population was 120.6532 million, a decrease of about 908,000 from the previous year [44] - The Reserve Bank of India kept the benchmark interest rate at 5.5% and maintained a "neutral" policy stance [45] International Stock Markets - US major indices rose, with the Dow up 0.18%, S&P 500 up 0.73%, and Nasdaq up 1.21%. Apple and Walmart led the gains in the Dow [46] - European major indices rose, with the German DAX up 0.33%, French CAC40 up 0.18%, and UK FTSE 100 up 0.24% [46] - Morgan Stanley believes that US stocks may adjust in the third quarter, but the bull market is not over [46] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang sold about 225,000 shares, cashing out about $39.78 million [47] - McDonald's Q2 revenue was $6.84 billion, a 5.4% year - on - year increase; same - store sales increased by 3.8% [49] - Disney's Q3 revenue was $23.65 billion, a 2.1% year - on - year increase, and it raised its full - year EPS forecast [49] - Uber's Q2 revenue was $12.7 billion, a 18% year - on - year increase, and it announced a new $20 billion share repurchase plan [50] - Honda's Q1 net profit was 196.6 billion yen, a 50.2% year - on - year decrease, but it raised its full - year net profit forecast [50] - Novo Nordisk's Q2 sales were 76.857 billion Danish kroner, a 13% year - on - year increase, but it lowered its full - year sales and profit growth forecasts [50] Commodity Market - Gold inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reached a record high, driven by arbitrage trading [51] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold down 0.08% and COMEX silver up 0.3% [51] - Oil prices fell due to OPEC's production increase and weak US economic data [53] - London base metals mostly rose, supported by the Fed's loose policy expectations but pressured by tariff uncertainties [53] Bond Market - In the domestic inter - bank market, major interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see period [54] - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields down and long - term yields up due to Fed's comments and tariff uncertainties [54] Foreign Exchange Market - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1900, down 24 points from the previous day [55] - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking", and the HKMA bought HK$8.439 billion [56] - The US dollar index fell 0.55%, and most non - US currencies rose [58]