来源：滚动播报 美联储米兰：由于被动的货币政策收紧以及通胀前景改善，需要降息。 ...

周四，美联储官员就降息节奏出现不同声音，理事沃勒主张维持每次25个基点的谨慎降息步伐以应对疲 软的劳动力市场，而临时担任美联储理事的米兰则呼吁采取更激进的50个基点降息。 沃勒周四在接受媒体采访时表示，美联储可以继续以25个基点的幅度逐步降低利率。沃勒表示： 你不想犯错，所以避免错误的方法是谨慎小心地行动，降息25个基点，观察会发生什么，然 后你就能更好地判断下一步该怎么做。 沃勒表示，过去六周内情况没有太大变化，民间部门数据持续反映劳动力市场疲软。目前通胀率估计在 2.5%左右，似乎没有什么迹象表明通胀会大幅上升。褐皮书并未显示经济形势乐观和繁荣，年底GDP 可能走弱。 关于AI的影响，沃勒表示，对AI的担忧在于它是否会导致劳动力需求的结构性变化，而美联储的周期 性工具无法解决这个问题。 他表示，关税不确定性以及对AI对生产力可能影响的疑问，使得企业CEO招聘意愿不强。企业投资主 要集中在AI领域，并未广泛分布。一旦扣掉AI，企业固定投资是下降的。 关于美联储主席的选拔，沃勒还表示，与贝森特的面试非常顺利，进行得很快。尚未与特朗普总统通 话，不清楚是否会通话。 分歧的核心在于政策调整的速度，Waller强调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed that a further interest rate cut is appropriate, as there has been little change in the economic situation over the past six weeks, with private sector data indicating a weak labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The labor market continues to show signs of weakness, as reflected in private sector data [1] - There is uncertainty regarding tariffs and the potential impact of AI on productivity, which affects CEO hiring intentions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - Waller emphasized the importance of cautious actions to avoid mistakes in monetary policy [1] - There has been no communication with President Trump regarding future discussions, leaving uncertainty about potential dialogues [1]

美联储理事沃勒：降息是正确的举措。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment and policy-making [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the lack of government data could complicate the Fed's ability to make informed decisions, especially if the shutdown persists [1] Economic Data Impact - The Labor Department's September report showed a significant drop in non-farm employment, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July, and below market expectations [2] - The CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis points rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the employment market [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver is likely to experience a pull - back after a rally as spot contradictions ease [2][5]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories [2][9]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state [2][12]. - Lead price rebounds are restricted by increasing inventories [2][15]. - The price trend of tin is subject to macro - economic influences [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a consolidation phase; alumina's profit margins are being compressed; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level as macro - sentiment turns bearish; stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost at the bottom limiting downward flexibility [2][24]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to continue its short - term range - bound movement with a firm spot performance [2][27]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend; polysilicon's futures are showing strength and investors should focus on the content of today's meeting [2][31][32]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation [2][36]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may experience a slight correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][39]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations with cost providing bottom support [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations with expectations fluctuating [2][47][48]. - Log prices are oscillating repeatedly [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Data**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 960.34 with a daily increase of 2.27%, and the night - session closing price was 962.08 with a night - session increase of 1.39%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 11966 with a daily increase of 3.76%, and the night - session closing price was 12138.00 with a night - session increase of 3.97% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1 to 1,022.60, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 310 to 15,422.61. SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,916 to 75,099 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 64,360 to 39,660,680 troy ounces. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32,643 to 1,030,429 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 4,559,793 to 515,632,550 troy ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [5][8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85260 with a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The closing price of LME copper 3M was 10,576 with a daily decrease of 0.08% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 8,236 to 44,531 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, China's macro - economic data showed positive trends. In the industry, the investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months, and Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's copper ore imports in September were 258.7 million tons, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 48.5 million tons [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22015, down 0.92%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2949, down 2.09% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7172 to 65666 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 to 38350 tons [12]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary signaled a relaxation, and both sides' working levels maintained communication. China restated its stance on the tariff war [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17110, up 0.35%; the closing price of LME lead 3M was 1977, down 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead inventory increased by 1302 to 32007 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 8225 to 254775 tons [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, China's macro - economic data and the US economic situation from the Fed's Beige Book were reported [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 281,710, up 0.46%; the closing price of LME tin 3M was 35,380, up 0.31% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE tin inventory increased by 50 to 5,677 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 190 to 2,575 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The same set of macro - economic news about China and the US was reported [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20910, and the closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2745. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2797, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20410 [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 64.20 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.90 million tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's CPI and PPI data showed positive trends, and new social financing and loan data were also released [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560 [24]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining company's over 148 - hectare mining area was taken over; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; some Indonesian mining companies were sanctioned; new regulations on mining plans were issued; and Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China [24][25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,720, and the closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,940 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. The government issued an action plan for the "three - year doubling" of electric vehicle charging facilities, and China's power battery production, sales, and exports showed growth [29][30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,865 [32]. - **Inventory Changes**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 54.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.0 million tons [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The results of Xinjiang's 2025 incremental new - energy project mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [32]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 776.5 with a daily decrease of 0.70% [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [37]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 with a daily decrease of 0.85%, and the closing price of HC2601 was 3,212 with a daily decrease of 0.86% [39]. - **Industry News**: In early October, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and steel export and import data in August were also reported [39][41]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5376, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5746 [44]. - **Industry News**: Market quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were released, and a large steel mill's tender inquiries for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were reported [44]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1151 with a daily decrease of 0.2%, and the closing price of J2601 was 1642 with a daily decrease of 0.8% [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [49]. Log - The price of logs is oscillating repeatedly, but no detailed price or trading data are provided [2][50].

周三(10月15日)亚洲时段，现货白银价格向上攀升，重回52美元上方，欧市盘中，白银价格持续登高， 走势大幅上涨，现报52.95美元/盎司，最高触及53.00美元/盎司，最低下探51.34美元/盎司。银价正逼近 53.20美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美联储理事米兰发表讲话。 【要闻聚焦】 美联储理事鲍曼周二表示，她仍预计美联储将在2025年最后两次货币政策会议上继续降息。"我仍认为 今年年底前还会有两次降息。"鲍曼称："只要劳动力市场和其他经济数据按我预期的方向发展，我们就 会继续沿着降低联邦基金利率的路径前进。" 在7月会议上曾投票反对维持利率不变、主张提前启动降息后，鲍曼在上月决议中支持降息。与她一同 在7月会议中持异议的还有沃勒，两人均由特朗普在其首个任期内提名进入美联储理事会。鲍曼和沃勒 此前均表示，特朗普政府重启的关税措施不会导致持续性通胀，而当前风险平衡更偏向于劳动力市场。 今天白银继续保持多头看涨趋势不变，上方则关注前高53.5是否破位，不破就短线看，破位就看55高 点。达到严重超卖水平后，在相对强弱指标上形成正背离的支撑下，随着积极信号的出现，在短期主要 看涨趋势占主导地位。 晚间交易提醒： 17 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 9 月 CPI 同比降 0.3%，API 美国原油库存明显 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-10-16 宏观策略（股指期货） 9 月 CPI 同比降 0.3%，PPI 同比降 2.3% 国内通胀分化，CPI 回落，PPI 回升，国内物价形势边际修复。 金融数据看，私人部门信贷需求仍然偏弱。其中非银存款同比 少增，需要注意存款搬家或有减速。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储褐皮书：经济活动变化不大 就业保持稳定 综 美国政府关门期间裁减 1 万名政府职位，这意味着劳动力市场进 一步走弱，美元指数下行。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 9 月 CPI 增速录得-0.3%，前值为-0.4% 报 贸易形势对债市整体是中性偏多的，多单可继续持有。不过驱 动债市大幅走强的因素尚未出现，追多需谨慎。 农产品（豆粕） NOPA 压榨数据远超市场预期 美国政府仍然停摆，NOPA 9 月压榨月报好于市场预期。巴西 CNF 升贴水持稳，我国进口大豆成本变动不大。 有色金属（镍） DKFT2025 年第三季度镍矿石产量达 207 万吨 矿价偏强运行，供应存在扰动 能源化工（原油） 未获 ...

周三发布的美联储褐皮书（Beige Book）显示，近几周美国经济活动基本持平，整体消费支出略有下 降。就业水平基本稳定，劳动力需求低迷；同时物价持续上涨，多个地区报告称投入成本增速加快。 该报告基于美联储12家地区性银行截至10月6日收集的信息，由旧金山联储汇总编制。报告指出，自上 一份报告以来，经济活动总体变化不大。3个地区报告经济活动小幅至温和增长，5个地区称经济活动无 变化，4个地区指出经济活动略有放缓。相比之下，9月份大多数地区报告经济活动没有变化。 不过，从宏观层面来看，大多数行业的趋势与9月份的评估结果相似。各地区报告继续显示，消费者支 出（尤其是中低收入家庭的消费者支出）有所减弱，制造业也受到了关税的负面影响。这一表述与上个 月基本一致。 最新的报告还显示各地区对增长的展望存在差异：部分受访者预计未来6至12个月需求将回升；有一个 地区则指出，政府长期停摆可能对经济增长构成风险。 关于劳动力市场趋势的讨论则表明，过去六周劳动力市场略有疲软。褐皮书指出，"各地区和各行业的 劳动力需求普遍低迷"，并且"更多雇主报告通过裁员和自然减员来减少员工数量"，这与9月份大多数地 区就业"几乎没有变化"的评论 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2] - After the key nodes at the end of October (trade conflicts, tech giants' earnings reports, Fed decisions), if the Nasdaq continues to rise, the market will enter the strong upward phase of the last stage of the bull market, but also the most dangerous top moment is approaching [1] 3. Summary According to Related Information Global Economic News - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October and a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months [1] - The US bank raised its price forecasts for gold to $5000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Google's parent company Alphabet will invest $15 billion in India over five years to build an AI data - center hub [1][2] - OpenAI plans to invest up to $25 billion in Argentina to build a data - center hub [1] - Goldman Sachs will limit employee growth and cut some positions by the end of this year and launched the "OneGS 3.0" strategy [1] Chinese Economic News - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports rose 7.4% year - on - year, with the growth rates hitting multi - month highs [2] - The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 points, the first time since last November [1][2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, China is the preferred stock investment market, and 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion of emerging - market assets [2] Tech - related News - Huawei announced the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips, with computing power leading Nvidia by over a year [2] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Broadcom released the Thor Ultra network chip, strengthening its position in AI data - center network communication and competing with Nvidia [1]