宏观修复与"双宽松"共振 岁末将至，市场的目光再次投向来年的A股。在深圳、北京，3场头部券商的资本市场年会前后登场， 给出了一个共同的预测：2026年，在更稳的宏观底盘、更清晰的产业方向和更友好的制度环境支撑下， A股市场奠定了"低波动慢牛"基础。与此同时，瑞银、高盛等国际投行也密集更新对中国股市的展望： A股在全球资产配置中的权重明显抬升。 在中信证券2026年资本市场年会上，中信证券总经理邹迎光表示，中国资本市场运行的积极动能正在不 断积累，奠定低波动慢牛的基础。从全球背景看，百年变局加速演进，中国的国际影响力、感召力、塑 造力正显著提升，参与全球治理与维护海外利益的能力也在持续增强。 产业格局方面，中国制造面对错综复杂的国际形势彰显出强大韧性，今年前三季度出口增长7.1%，全 产业链优势凸显。广大新兴市场与全球南方国家的发展诉求，成为中国企业走向全球的坚实保障。未来 将有更多本土龙头企业向跨国巨头转型，并将份额优势转化为定价权。 金融格局方面，伴随着全球产业力量对比的变化，全球金融秩序也将深刻重塑。中国资产价值的重估有 望持续提速。 5%附近的增速、4%左右的赤字率、需求端适度加力，这是中信证券给出的宏 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to establish a "low volatility slow bull" foundation by 2026, supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, clearer industrial directions, and a friendlier regulatory framework [2][3] - International investment banks like UBS and Goldman Sachs have updated their outlooks, indicating a significant increase in the weight of A-shares in global asset allocation [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Context - Citic Securities predicts a macroeconomic growth rate of around 5% in 2025 and approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate likely maintained at 4% [4] - The economic recovery is characterized by moderate demand-side support and a balanced fiscal and monetary policy approach [4] Group 3: New Economic Drivers - The term "new quality productivity" is frequently mentioned, highlighting sectors like AI, biotechnology, and aerospace as key drivers of market transformation [6][7] - The integration of AI with advanced manufacturing is seen as a crucial growth lever, with significant implications for various sectors [11] Group 4: Globalization and Market Structure - Chinese companies are increasingly shifting from a domestic demand-driven model to a global demand-oriented approach, exporting capital goods and solutions to emerging markets [8] - The market structure is evolving, with new economy sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy gaining market share, while traditional industries are undergoing digital transformation [7] Group 5: Investment Trends - There is an anticipated flow of up to 6 trillion RMB from real estate and deposits into the stock market, marking a transition from stock market competition based on existing assets to new incremental allocations [10] - The focus on long-term investment strategies is expected to grow, with reforms aimed at enhancing the supply of quality financial products and increasing dividend payouts from listed companies [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by global market demand rather than solely domestic factors, with key influences from the China-US relationship and significant events such as trade agreements and US midterm elections [1][5][11]. Configuration Directions - Three major themes to focus on include: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [2][4]. 2. Chinese companies expanding globally, significantly increasing profit growth potential and market capitalization [2][4]. 3. The commercialization of AI, which will continue to expand the technology sector's influence and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises [2][4]. Market Phases - The market is expected to experience a two-phase bull market: "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 focused on technology, and a potential transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026, driven by cyclical recovery and growth in manufacturing [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical industries such as basic chemicals and industrial metals [4]. 2. Technology trends with opportunities in AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [4][8]. 3. Enhanced influence of manufacturing, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post "9·24" with a focus on fundamental improvements and risk management against volatility, particularly in the context of evolving China-US relations and the AI revolution [5][11]. Sector Focus - Recommended sectors include: 1. New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military, machinery, and computing [8][12]. 2. Themes such as new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [8][12]. Overall Market Sentiment - The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued inflow of incremental funds and a focus on sectors that may outperform expectations, particularly in AI and pragmatic cooperation between China and the US [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant opportunities and challenges for Chinese companies venturing into overseas markets, particularly in ASEAN countries, highlighting the need for strategic support to increase the success rate of these ventures [2][3]. Geopolitical Considerations - ASEAN is identified as a region with the highest political friendliness towards China, making it a strategic choice for Chinese companies [6][10]. - The recent incident involving Nexperia, a semiconductor company, illustrates the risks posed by geopolitical tensions, which can severely impact business operations [7][9]. Geographical Proximity - Geographical distance affects management and operational efficiency, with closer proximity facilitating better communication and collaboration [11][12]. - The logistics improvements, such as the "ASEAN Express" initiative, significantly reduce shipping times and costs, enhancing supply chain efficiency [15]. Cultural Affinity - Cultural similarities between China and ASEAN countries, including the presence of a large Chinese diaspora, facilitate business integration and market penetration [17][19]. - The cultural recognition of Chinese festivals and the widespread use of the Chinese language in business contexts further support this integration [18]. Structural Opportunities in ASEAN - ASEAN has become the largest destination for China's foreign direct investment, surpassing other regions like the EU and the US, with a significant focus on manufacturing [21][22]. - The region's young population and rising income levels present a burgeoning consumer market, with a total consumption of $2.1 trillion in 2024 [24]. Private Board Initiative - The establishment of the "ASEAN Private Board" aims to provide a more integrated and resourceful platform for Chinese entrepreneurs to navigate the complexities of overseas expansion [25][29]. - The initiative focuses on five key dimensions: strategic leadership, country-specific insights, local market expertise, resource integration, and collaborative learning [30]. Country-Specific Themes - Each ASEAN country will have tailored themes for exploration, such as market penetration strategies in Indonesia and supply chain restructuring in Vietnam [32][33][34]. - The program includes visits to local enterprises and engagement with industry leaders to facilitate practical learning and resource acquisition [39][41]. Learning and Resource Integration - The program emphasizes practical learning through site visits and real-world case studies, allowing participants to develop actionable business strategies [41][45]. - Participants will have access to a network of local resources, including financial institutions and industry leaders, to support their business endeavors [40][80].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].

Core Insights - Malaysia is emerging as a preferred destination for Chinese enterprises looking to expand into Southeast Asia, characterized by a strong cultural connection and economic stability [2][3][8]. Economic Overview - Malaysia's GDP has grown by approximately 40% over the past decade, with a current GDP of $421.97 billion and a per capita GDP of $11,867.3, ranking third in Southeast Asia [4][13]. - The country maintains a trade surplus for 26 consecutive years, with a diverse trade structure that reduces dependency on any single market [16]. Strategic Advantages - Malaysia's geographical location serves as a strategic hub for ASEAN, connecting over 600 million people and facilitating trade between East and West [10][12]. - The logistics infrastructure, including the Port of Klang, ranks among the top in Southeast Asia, enhancing trade efficiency [12]. Population and Labor Market - The working-age population (ages 15-64) is projected to reach 70.4% by Q2 2025, providing a significant labor force [17]. - Malaysia's diverse, multilingual workforce is advantageous for companies seeking local talent [19]. Key Industries for Investment - The semiconductor industry is a focal point, with Malaysia being the sixth-largest semiconductor exporter globally, accounting for 40% of its total exports [28][29]. - The electric vehicle market is rapidly growing, with a 45% increase in registered electric vehicles in 2024, presenting opportunities for Chinese automotive brands [35][38]. - The digital economy is expanding, with a 101.51% year-on-year increase in digital trade, highlighting the potential for e-commerce and digital services [39][41]. Cultural Considerations - Understanding and respecting Malaysia's multicultural environment is crucial for successful business operations, as the country has a significant Muslim population and various cultural practices [46][48]. - Localizing management practices and hiring local talent are essential for long-term success in the Malaysian market [49][50]. Conclusion - Malaysia offers a unique combination of cultural familiarity, economic stability, and strategic advantages, making it an attractive destination for Chinese enterprises looking to expand internationally [7][8][57].

"跨境支付与现金管理，是考验银行服务海外中企能力的关键分水岭。" 随着中企出海步伐的持续加快，为其"保驾护航"的外资银行，从中观察到一系列显著变化。 "中企出海已经完成了一轮结构性升级，从资源寻求型的1.0阶段升级为全球价值链整合的2.0阶段。"德 意志银行（中国）有限公司（下称"德银中国"）行长尹桢在接受第一财经专访时指出，跨境支付与财资 管理等"最后一英里"的挑战，正成为考验银行全球服务能力的关键。 尹桢表示，当前中企出海已进入一个崭新的质变阶段：一是从早期的寻求生产要素，升级为借助海外市 场提升其在全球价值链中的战略地位；二是企业出海的目的地更加多元，从以美国、欧洲等单一市场为 主，转变为成熟市场与新兴市场并重，尤其是在东盟、拉美、非洲等市场的业务拓展显著加速。 出海投资离不开资金支持。外资银行具有全球化网络与区域深耕等优势，成为助力中企解决跨境资金流 转、本地融资等难题的重要力量。 在尹桢看来，跨境支付与现金管理，是考验银行全球服务海外中企能力的关键分水岭。"企业出海要解 决'最后一英里'的问题，主要集中在信息流和资金流运作方面，具体涉及融资、外汇风险管理、现金管 理等。"他说。 中企出海完成质变 尹 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference by CITIC Securities will focus on global macroeconomic trends and investment strategies under the theme "Striving for a New Journey" [1] - CITIC Securities' Chief Economist Mingming forecasts a 5.0% growth for China's economy in 2025 and around 4.9% in 2026, with a more proactive fiscal policy expected [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to remain around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see an ideal economic growth rate of approximately 4.8%, with a focus on balancing demand-side policies [2] - The expansion of service consumption is identified as key to improving consumption rates, with policies expected to target income distribution reform and enhance the "wealth effect" of the capital market [2] - A-share companies are transitioning into multinational corporations, with the potential for Chinese enterprises to gain pricing power in the global value chain during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 3 - The market liquidity is characterized by the influx of absolute return funds, contributing to a long-term decline in the volatility of broad-based A-share indices [3] - Three key industry trends are highlighted: upgrading traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [3] - The cyclical support for the Chinese economy is increasing, which may help mitigate downward pressures, while the focus remains on expanding consumption and nurturing new growth sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the transformation of Chinese companies from local to global players, indicating a shift in the A-share market towards a more mature market structure, which is expected to lead to a stable and gradual bull market [3][11]. Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth rate of approximately 5.0% in 2025 and around 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated for 2026 [7][9]. - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a deficit rate around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [7]. - Monetary policy may continue to have room for adjustments, including potential rate cuts and structural monetary tools [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The capital market is accumulating positive momentum due to the enhancement of China's international discourse power and the improvement of Chinese companies' positions in the global value chain [5][9]. - The A-share market is transitioning from being an emerging market to a more mature market, with Chinese companies gaining pricing power in the global value chain [3][11]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes three key areas: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [12]. 2. The globalization of Chinese companies, which opens up significant profit growth potential and market capitalization [12]. 3. The expansion of AI applications, which continues to enhance the competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises in the technology sector [13]. Asset Allocation - The global macro environment is generally accommodative, with expectations for a mild appreciation of the RMB and continued attractiveness of gold as a long-term asset [8].