A股2025：高歌猛进 屡破纪录 2025年A股行情仅余最后一个交易日。纵观全年，主要宽基股指均在4月初触底后一路高歌猛进，沪指 从年内低位3040点起步，一度冲破4000点大关，全年涨幅接近20%，有望创出近6年来最佳年度表现。 科技含量更高的创业板指、科创综指全年涨幅更是高达50%左右。展望2026年，"乘势而上""再攀高 峰"成为机构共识，行情脉络有望从估值驱动过渡为盈利支撑。在多位券商看来，中资企业在全球价值 链分配中的地位进一步抬升，将份额优势转化为定价权，这是A股行情迈向"低波动慢牛"的基础。2025 年A股书写的多项纪录中，成交数据的大幅放量是最突出的特征，反映托底资金持续进场，整体资金风 险偏好显著回升。作为表征高风险偏好资金入市的主要指标，A股融资余额今年下半年以来呈现单边扩 张态势。今年资金入市的另一大渠道是ETF。数据显示，今年境内ETF总规模实现4万亿元、5万亿元、 6万亿元的三级跨越。从个股层面看，截至12月30日，A股市场千亿市值公司共计178家，较去年底 （137家）增加41家，增幅达30%。(上海证券报) 2025年A股并购重组盘点：活跃度显著提升 "硬科技"成焦点 Wind数 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline on November 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping below 3000 points, closing down 2.45% at 3834.89 points [6][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 19656.61 billion yuan, an increase of about 2574.72 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6][2] - Out of the total stocks, 354 rose while 5072 fell, with 33 hitting the daily limit up and 99 hitting the limit down [6][2] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding sector showed activity, with Jiuzhiyang hitting the daily limit up and China Shipbuilding Defense rising over 6% [6][2] - The battery sector faced a broad decline, with Tianhua New Energy, Xingyuan Material, and Honggong Technology all dropping over 10%, and Dexin Technology hitting the limit down [6][2] - Energy metals experienced significant adjustments, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium hitting the limit down [6][2] - The silicon energy sector also saw declines, with companies such as Dawi Co. and Chenguang New Materials hitting the limit down [6][2] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current adjustment in the computing power sector presents an opportunity for investment, as the demand driven by AI remains strong [7][3] - The report from CITIC Securities on November 21 suggested that A-shares are expected to transition to a "low volatility slow bull" market, with "global exposure" becoming a key variable for assessment [9][3] - High foreign exposure companies contributed 39% of profits and 35% of market value in the non-financial sector, indicating their potential to drive overall market performance [9][3] - The outlook for 2026 predicts a 4.7% growth in overall A-share profits, with an increase in high prosperity and performance improvement sectors [11][3]

宏观修复与"双宽松"共振 岁末将至，市场的目光再次投向来年的A股。在深圳、北京，3场头部券商的资本市场年会前后登场， 给出了一个共同的预测：2026年，在更稳的宏观底盘、更清晰的产业方向和更友好的制度环境支撑下， A股市场奠定了"低波动慢牛"基础。与此同时，瑞银、高盛等国际投行也密集更新对中国股市的展望： A股在全球资产配置中的权重明显抬升。 在中信证券2026年资本市场年会上，中信证券总经理邹迎光表示，中国资本市场运行的积极动能正在不 断积累，奠定低波动慢牛的基础。从全球背景看，百年变局加速演进，中国的国际影响力、感召力、塑 造力正显著提升，参与全球治理与维护海外利益的能力也在持续增强。 产业格局方面，中国制造面对错综复杂的国际形势彰显出强大韧性，今年前三季度出口增长7.1%，全 产业链优势凸显。广大新兴市场与全球南方国家的发展诉求，成为中国企业走向全球的坚实保障。未来 将有更多本土龙头企业向跨国巨头转型，并将份额优势转化为定价权。 金融格局方面，伴随着全球产业力量对比的变化，全球金融秩序也将深刻重塑。中国资产价值的重估有 望持续提速。 5%附近的增速、4%左右的赤字率、需求端适度加力，这是中信证券给出的宏 ...

近期，中信证券、中金公司、国泰海通证券、中信建投证券、华泰证券、东吴证券等多家头部券商陆续 发布2026年A股投资策略报告，"慢牛行情"成为市场一致预期。 2026年，盈利驱动将成为新主角，投资机会也将从2025年的科技"一骑绝尘"转向2026年的多主线。 当中信证券提出"角逐全球定价权"，东吴证券给出"2026年6月风格切换窗口"，中信建投预警"科技板块 结构性回调"，各家券商在慢牛共识之时，正为投资者描绘一条与今年截然不同的投资路径。 慢牛格局延续 自2024年9月24日政策组合拳出台后，A股市场进入新一轮牛市行情。2025年中国股票在全球市场中表 现优异，上证指数创出十年新高。 多家券商指出，2026年市场有望在慢牛格局中进一步演绎，但驱动力的切换将成为核心特征。 中信证券鲜明提出，A股将迈向"低波动慢牛"，"全球敞口"成为其研判2026年A股的核心变量。其报告 指出："A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"数据显示，当前高境外敞口企业贡献了全A非金融板 块39%的利润和35%的市值，足以撬动整体行情。中信证券认为，未来A股基本面需置于全球需求视角 下审视，中企在全球价值链中的份额优势正转化为定价权， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility and sector rotation, with brokerages adjusting stock ratings significantly as they anticipate a bullish trend for 2026, suggesting a transition towards a low-volatility slow bull market [1][8]. Group 1: Stock Ratings Adjustments - A total of 23 stocks have had their ratings upgraded since the end of October, primarily in the electronics, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, power equipment, and automotive parts sectors [2][6]. - The electronics sector has the highest number of upgrades, with companies like Guangliwei and Zhongwei receiving positive attention due to strong performance and high technical barriers [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector saw upgrades for companies such as Deyuan Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, driven by innovation in drug development and expected performance recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector has also seen increased attention, with stocks like Ximai Food and Qingdao Beer receiving upgrades, indicating a positive outlook [3][4]. - Conversely, around 40 stocks have had their ratings or target prices downgraded, mainly in the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, electronics, and beauty care sectors, reflecting short-term performance pressures and declining gross margins [6][7]. - Notable downgrades in the pharmaceutical sector include Aibo Medical and Guizhou Moutai, with reasons linked to competitive pressures and performance under expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook for 2026 - Major brokerages like CITIC Securities and CICC are optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, predicting a transition to a mature market with a focus on global demand rather than just domestic [8][9]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of global market dynamics and the potential for Chinese companies to gain pricing power in the global value chain [8][9]. - CICC suggests a balanced market style in 2026, with a focus on growth sectors, external demand, and cyclical reversals, while also highlighting the importance of technology and resource sectors [9].

Group 1: Market Transition and Outlook - A-share listed companies are transitioning from domestic-focused enterprises to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift in China's capital market from emerging to mature status [1][4] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Chinese companies are expected to enhance their position in the global value chain, converting share advantages into pricing power, which forms the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market in A-shares [1][4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - China's economy is anticipated to continue a recovery trend, with growth projected at around 5% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, potentially showing a pattern of lower growth in the first half and higher growth in the latter half of 2026 [2] - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit ratio around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Focus Areas - The investment strategy for 2026 should focus on three main lines: 1. The re-evaluation of pricing power in China's manufacturing sector, with an emphasis on industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [6] 2. The deepening of enterprises' international expansion, particularly in sectors such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [6] 3. The continuation of the technology market, with a focus on breakthroughs in AI commercialization and related hardware and applications [6] Group 4: Market Liquidity and Asset Allocation - The capital market is expected to see a continued influx of absolute return funds, contributing to a long-term downward trend in the volatility of broad-based A-share indices [6] - In terms of asset allocation, the global macro environment is generally accommodative, with expectations of a mild appreciation of the RMB and ongoing attractiveness of gold as a long-term investment asset [7]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a recovery trend with a projected growth of approximately 5.0% in 2025 and around 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated for 2026 [3][6] - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a deficit rate likely to remain around 4%, and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [3][6] - The global economic landscape is anticipated to undergo a rebalancing phase, with both China and the U.S. expected to experience a "front low, back high" economic cycle [3][6] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The Chinese capital market is transitioning from an emerging market to a mature market, with A-share companies increasingly becoming global players [1][7] - The capital market is expected to accumulate positive momentum, supported by enhanced international discourse power and the rising position of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain [2][5] - The market is likely to experience a low-volatility slow bull trend, driven by the transformation of Chinese companies into multinational corporations [1][7] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of global market demand over local demand, as A-share companies expand their international exposure [7][8] - Three key investment themes are highlighted: upgrading traditional manufacturing for better pricing power, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [8] - The upcoming market dynamics are influenced by the U.S.-China relationship, with significant events such as trade agreements and U.S. midterm elections expected to shape market conditions [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by enhanced international influence, improved corporate positioning in the global value chain, and a mature market ecosystem [3][9]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference took place from November 11 to 13 in Shenzhen, themed "Striving for a New Journey," featuring speeches from CITIC Securities' executives and over 100 guest speakers [3][6]. - The event attracted significant attendance, with over 4,000 participants on-site and 33,000 online viewers, highlighting its importance in the industry [6]. - The agenda included more than 20 sub-forums covering various topics such as global economic outlook, emerging market investments, and AI applications [6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities' Chief Economist predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.0% for 2025 and 4.9% for 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [9][10]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is anticipated to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit rate around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [10]. - The global economic landscape is expected to rebalance, with both the US and China experiencing a "front low, back high" economic cycle [10][11]. Group 3: Capital Market Characteristics - The capital market is expected to face new characteristics during the 14th Five-Year Plan, influenced by global changes, technological advancements, and improved institutional environments [8][9]. - The market's adaptability and inclusiveness are highlighted as key factors supporting technological innovation and wealth effects [8][9]. Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from local exposure to global exposure, with Chinese companies increasingly participating in the global value chain, which is foundational for a low-volatility, slow-bull market [13][14]. - The upcoming period is seen as a golden opportunity for equity markets, particularly between the signing of the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections [6][14]. - Key investment themes include upgrading traditional manufacturing, expanding global operations, and leveraging AI for competitive advantage [14].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by enhanced international influence, improved positioning in the global value chain, and a mature market ecosystem [2][11]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference took place from November 11 to 13, 2026, in Shenzhen, with the theme "Striving for a New Journey" [2]. - Over 4,000 attendees participated in person, while 33,000 viewers joined online via CITIC Securities' live streaming platform [5]. - The event featured more than 100 speakers and over 20 sub-forums covering various topics, including global economic outlook and AI applications [6]. Group 2: Economic Insights - CITIC Securities' Chief Economist predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% for 2026, with a more proactive fiscal policy expected [11][12]. - The macroeconomic policy is anticipated to support economic recovery, with a focus on demand-side balance and service consumption as a key highlight [13][14]. Group 3: Market Trends - The equity market is seen as entering a new era of dividends, with a shift from real estate to equity assets in wealth allocation [5][15]. - The A-share market is transitioning from local exposure to global exposure, enhancing its position in the global value chain, which is fundamental for a stable market environment [15][16]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - The conference highlighted three key areas for industry focus: upgrading traditional manufacturing, expanding global presence, and leveraging AI for commercial applications [16]. - The emphasis on long-term participation and a stable investment approach is crucial in navigating the evolving market landscape [16].

Core Insights - The 2026 Capital Market Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the theme "Striving for a New Journey," highlighting the evolving global context, technological trends, and regulatory environment impacting China's capital markets [1][2] - The conference features over a hundred top scholars, industry experts, and representatives from various sectors, indicating a strong interest in the future of China's capital markets [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - Geopolitical factors are causing instability in the global landscape, while China's international influence is gradually increasing, with a 7.1% growth in exports in the first three quarters of the year, showcasing the resilience of Chinese manufacturing [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is expected to create new opportunities in the capital markets, with a focus on the "technology narrative" improving risk appetite [2] Group 2: Structural Changes in Capital Markets - The optimization of the investment and financing environment is anticipated to lead to a structural transformation in China's capital markets, with an increasing market capitalization share for new productivity sectors [2] - Continuous macro and reform policies are expected to result in a mild recovery of the economy next year, stabilizing the growth center for the next five years [2] Group 3: Market Ecosystem and Investor Behavior - The improvement in the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market regulations is likely to foster a new market ecosystem, enhancing the compatibility between risk appetite and new productivity sectors [2] - There is a notable trend of household savings being converted into investments, with future reforms focusing on creating a more attractive long-term investment environment and improving the supply of quality financial products [2]