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中国经济展现强大韧性和活力 跨国公司坚定深耕中国市场
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-06-24 12:43
央视网消息:近期,伴随着稳增长政策的落地,中国经济展现出强大韧性,多家外资机构纷纷上调了对于中国经济增长的预 期。跨国公司负责人纷纷表示,中国积极推进高水平对外开放,为全球经济稳定与发展注入了强大动力,也推动了与跨国公司之间 的互惠共赢。 多家国际金融机构上调中国经济增速预期 第六届跨国公司领导人青岛峰会发布的《跨国公司在中国:投资未来共赢发展再起航》报告指出,截至2024年底,外商累计在 华投资设立的企业超过123.9万家,累计实际使用外资20.6万亿元人民币。面对经济全球化的深度调整,中国正以全方位、多维度的 战略优势为跨国公司构筑投资热土。 摩根士丹利年中展望报告,上调了对2025年中国经济增速预期,将今明两年的经济增速分别上调0.3个百分点和0.2个百分点; 德意志银行在下半年经济展望报告中表示,中国宽松的货币政策和财政政策的加快有望持续发力,服务业产出和零售表现也展现出 韧性,上调中国2025年经济增速预测0.2个百分点;野村也将中国全年GDP增长预测上调0.5个百分点,高盛则上调了今年二季度和 下半年的中国环比GDP增速预测,并将今年GDP增速预测上调0.6个百分点。 看好增长潜力 外资机构纷纷布 ...
外交部:中国经济顶压前行 稳中有进 向优向新
news flash· 2025-06-20 07:53
据央视新闻,外交部发言人郭嘉昆6月20日主持例行记者会。有记者提问,日前,世界银行发布报告显 示,2025年初中国经济保持增长势头,中国政府为应对全球贸易不确定性采取了相应的货币和 财政政 策。不久前 摩根大通、 高盛等国际机构也纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。发言人对此有何评论?郭嘉昆 表示,面对复杂的外部环境,中国经济顶压前行,稳中有进,向优向新,展现出强大韧性和发展潜力, 成为推进世界经济的"稳定源",共享发展机遇的"引力场"。今年前5个月,中国货物进出口总值同比增 长2.5%,社会消费品零售总额增长5%,外国人来华消费更是火热升温, 离境退税新政实施首月全国离 境退税笔数同比增长116%,免签来中国将成为暑期出游的热门选择。事实证明,中国经济长期向好的 基本面不会变,超大规模市场和完整产业体系优势不会变,高质量发展和高水平对外开放的政策方向不 会变,这是国际社会持续看好中国、抢滩中国、深耕中国的信心之源。我们将坚定不移扩大开放,积聚 新动能,提供新机遇,以自身稳定发展为各国共同发展带来更多利好,注入更强动能。 ...
德银中国首席经济学家熊奕: 经济基本面改善 支撑人民币汇率走强
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-18 18:25
以旧换新政策在促进商品消费方面已经取得阶段性成果,考虑到耐用品置换周期,后续政策刺激效应或 将逐渐趋缓。要进一步促进国内消费,还需要进一步提振就业与居民收入,以及扭转偏低的通胀预期。 促进服务业就业与消费,特别是教育、健康、育儿等消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域,可能 是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者:自去年9月24日以来,中国陆续出台一揽子化债政策与促增长举措,今年政治局会议前 后,又落地特别国债发行、央行降准降息等政策工具。从当前经济运行节奏看,未来还有哪些政策利好 值得关注? 近日,国家统计局发布的5月经济数据超市场预期,以旧换新政策在促消费方面取得了阶段性成果。对 此,德意志银行等多家国际大行纷纷上调对中国经济增长的预测,并认为经济基本面的改善支持人民币 汇率走强。 为此,证券时报记者专访了德银中国首席经济学家熊奕。他就中国经济增长预期、人民币汇率、促消费 效果、政策发力方向等话题分享了观点。他认为,促进服务业就业和消费,特别是教育、健康、育儿等 消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域,可能是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者:近日,国家统计局发布了5月经济数据,规模以上工业增加值同 ...
专家访谈汇总:LABUBU爆火带动同名meme币
Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The proposed stablecoin legislation faces criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren for not addressing financial interests related to Trump and potentially allowing tech giants like Amazon and Meta to issue their own stablecoins [1] - If passed, the legislation could lead to significant growth in stablecoin-related financial products and services, benefiting companies like Circle (issuer of USDC) and Tether (issuer of USDT), while also attracting new market competitors, particularly large tech firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is emerging as a significant market opportunity, contrasting with the stagnation in the innovative drug sector, with the global BCI market size growing from $1.2 billion in 2019 to $1.98 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% [1] - BCI technology shows immense potential in the medical field, particularly for patients with neurological disorders (e.g., Parkinson's and Alzheimer's) and individuals with disabilities, enabling paralyzed patients to control external devices through brain signals [1] - Recent clinical trials in China mark a significant advancement in BCI, with teams from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Fudan University successfully conducting the first invasive BCI clinical trial, positioning China as a global leader in this field [1] - The 2023 "Brain-Computer Interface Innovation Development Plan" emphasizes medical rehabilitation as a primary focus, providing policy support for the clinical application of this technology [1] - With its vast market prospects, technological innovation, and policy backing, BCI is poised to become a new frontier in the pharmaceutical and technology industries, presenting fresh investment opportunities [1] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's industrial output and consumer spending show strong growth, with industrial value-added output increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 6.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector, particularly equipment manufacturing, is recovering robustly, with a 9.0% year-on-year increase in value-added output, indicating its role as a core driver of industrial growth [2] - The automotive sector benefits from policy support, with vehicle production increasing by 11.3% due to consumer demand stimulated by trade-in and subsidy policies [2] - Emerging products in digital transformation, such as smart devices, industrial robots, and 3D printing, are experiencing rapid production growth, supporting high-quality development in manufacturing [2] Group 4: Energy Sector Dynamics - Recent conflicts between Israel and Iran have led to a temporary rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices nearing levels prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day tariff" announcement [3] - Energy stocks, particularly oil service stocks, have not performed well, indicating that the market views the current conflict as a short-term disruption without altering the overall bearish outlook on the oil market [3] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, reflecting a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the oil price rebound [3] Group 5: Meme Coin Surge - The LABUBU brand, a core IP of Pop Mart, has gained significant global popularity, leading to a surge in its associated meme coin, LABUBU coin [4] - After a price drop at the end of 2024, LABUBU coin experienced a resurgence in May 2025, driven by the release of a new wave of LABUBU toys [4] - LABUBU coin is not officially issued by Pop Mart but is developed by a community-driven group, categorizing it as a typical meme coin [4] - Mainstream exchanges are cautious about listing meme coins, focusing on project transparency, governance mechanisms, and market risks to protect user assets [4]
韧性、科技、消费……透过多维度关键词解析中国吸引全球资本“新磁场”
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-06-08 03:12
Economic Growth Forecasts - Major international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points, citing positive effects from a series of incremental policies implemented since September 2024 [1][2] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China from September to December 2024 is highlighted as a key driver for economic support, with a projected fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time during the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - China's continuous policy openness and improvements in the business environment have led to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in newly established foreign-invested enterprises, totaling 18,832 in the first four months [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has raised a total of $9 billion since 2025, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, indicating strong interest from international investors [4] Resilience and Confidence in the Economy - Many foreign financial institutions emphasize the "resilience" of the Chinese economy, noting that despite external challenges, domestic growth remains robust [5] - The strong technological innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises are viewed as a critical factor for continued foreign investment confidence [8] Focus on Technology and Consumption - The technology and consumption sectors are identified as major growth areas, attracting global capital and showcasing significant potential [9] - Changes in consumer behavior, including the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumption patterns, are emerging as new highlights in the consumption sector [14][17]
中国经济增长完全可以持续
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-05-29 08:00
Group 1 - China's economic growth has been remarkable, achieving an average of 9.7% from 1978 to 1995 and projected to maintain an average of 8.3% until 2024, making it the fastest-growing country during these periods [1][3] - By 2024, China's GDP per capita is expected to reach $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold of $14,005, indicating significant economic progress [1] - China's growth has positively impacted not only East Asian economies but also contributed to global economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The sustained high growth in China post-reform is attributed to continuous improvements in productivity and the emergence of new high-value industries, leveraging the advantages of latecomers [3] - The shift towards labor-intensive industries after 1978 allowed China to effectively utilize its comparative advantages, which is a key reason for its rapid economic development [3] Group 3 - The recurring "China collapse theory" stems from historical failures of many developing countries that adopted capital-intensive import substitution strategies, leading to resource misallocation and corruption [4][5] - Contrary to mainstream economic theories that advocate for marketization and privatization, China's gradual dual-track reform has resulted in stable and rapid growth, avoiding the stagnation seen in other countries [5] Group 4 - Future economic prospects for China remain optimistic, with potential for over 8% growth until 2035 and 6% growth until 2049, despite challenges like aging population and trade tensions [6] - If growth expectations are met, by 2049, China's GDP per capita could reach half of that of the U.S., and its economic size could be double that of the U.S., enhancing its global economic position [6]
上调中国GDP增速预期 提高A股目标点位预测 外资机构对中国资产关注度持续升温
◎记者 汪友若 国际投资者对中国资产的关注度正持续升温。 本周,多家外资机构开启"中国主题"论坛。5月22日,摩根大通第21届全球中国峰会在上海开幕,来自 全球33个国家和地区、1400多家企业的超过2800人参加本届峰会。同样在上海,高盛于5月21日至22日 举办亚太科技互联网论坛。此外,瑞银亚洲投资论坛的香港主论坛也将于下周开幕,目前报名的全球投 资者已超过3500人。 同时,外资机构还密集上调对2025年中国经济增速的预期、提高对主要中国股指的目标点位预测,进一 步释放看好中国经济和A股市场的信号。 密集上调中国GDP增速预测 自上周以来,外资机构密集上调对2025年中国经济增速的预期,主要原因是外部扰动因素降温、内部稳 增长政策加码。 摩根大通近期修正了对中国经济的展望,将2025年全年的GDP增速预测再度上调。在5月21日的一场交 流会上,摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌表示,拉动经济增长的"三驾马 车"(消费、投资、净出口)中,由于中国国内的政策加码,消费对经济增长的贡献率将较去年有所上 升。 5月19日,野村中国首席经济学家陆挺也上调了对2025年中国GDP增长的预测。陆挺表 ...
中美关税调整,五大经济要点分析
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-05-19 07:13
1. 会谈声明超出预期,利好中国经济与金融市场:调整后的30%关税与4月份之前水平相近,使得出口商、进口商以及 终端消费者更易分摊成本以消化关税压力。 来源:德银研究 3. 中国经济增长预测有进一步上调的空间:随着关税政策的更新,熊奕预计今年中国经济增长或有上调的空间,具体 调整幅度仍将取决于未来双方对话的进展与合作成果。熊奕指出,尽管此前关税大幅上调,但中国4月份出口依然保 持强劲韧性。如今大部分关税已暂停,预计关税对出口增长的实际影响将远低于预期。展望未来,有三个关键事件值 得重点关注。其一,中美是否能持续开展双边对话,从而进一步缓和紧张局势;其二,贸易缓和能否对中国商业和消 费者信心产生积极影响,毕竟在贸易紧张局势升级前,相关市场信心已呈现改善态势;其三,七月份90天暂停期结束 后的走势将如何发展。 经过两天坦诚、富有建设性的高层会谈,中美双方已达成重要共识,将大幅缓和经贸紧张局势。 4. 短期内,政策面的宽松环境仍将持续 :中国人民银行将继续实施上周公布的宽松措施。财政部预计也将在未来几个 月加速国债发行节奏并加大财政支出力度。预计政府可能会在年中之前评估经济表现并动态调整政策,进而决定是否 需要修订 ...
多家海外机构上调中国经济增长预测!A500ETF(159339)走势较稳,实时成交额突破1.5亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 03:32
消息面上,日前《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布,双方宣布大幅降低双边关税水平,并表示将建 立机制,继续就经贸关系进行协商。声明发布后,多家海外机构表示考虑上调对2025年中国经济增长的 预测。相关机构表示,上周公布的4月贸易数据非常引人注目:中国对美出口环比骤降近20%,但总出 口仍保持增长,说明中国正在从其他市场获得份额,中国经济韧性较强。 5月14日,A股市场窄幅震荡,A500指数走势稳健。A500ETF(159339)过去20个交易日日均成交额2.7 亿元,市场热度较高。 各行业超级龙头,"漂亮50":A50ETF基金(159592)跟踪的A50指数布局各行业超大市值龙头股,这 些绩优大白马在供给侧改革的趋势下受益于市场集中度提升,在业绩披露期或更受资金青睐。 中银证券表示,中长期资金(如养老金、保险资金、公募基金长期持有型产品)的持续流入,推动A股 市场从"散户主导"向"机构主导"转型。这些资金更倾向于配置低波动、高分红、盈利稳定的资产,如金 融、消费、公用事业等,有助于降低市场换手率,减少短期投机行为,增强市场稳定性。同时,中长期 资金的长期持有特性为市场提供了稳定的"压舱石",提升了市场的韧性和 ...
国家发改委:美国所谓“对等关税”,严重违背历史潮流和经济规律
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-04-28 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is demonstrating resilience and vitality, with a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, indicating a positive trend despite a high base from the previous year [1][2]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth increased by 6.3 percentage points compared to the last quarter of the previous year, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force [2]. Innovation and Development - Significant growth in innovation sectors was noted, with production increases in servers (66.3%), new energy vehicles (45.4%), and 3D printing equipment (44.9%) [2]. - The application of large models in various fields, including electronics and automotive, is driving demand for computing and intelligent products [2]. Environmental and Social Progress - The average concentration of PM2.5 in cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the proportion of surface water quality in categories I-III improved to 91% [2]. - Rural residents' per capita disposable income increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the national average growth by 0.9 percentage points [2]. Trade and International Relations - The unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S. are viewed as a violation of international trade rules and are expected to have a negative impact globally [3]. - China is committed to defending its rights and maintaining international fairness and justice in response to these tariffs, emphasizing cooperation with the majority of countries [3].