Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - China holds the largest tungsten resources and production scale globally, accounting for over 80% of global production and 49% of consumption, significantly influencing the global tungsten market [2][4] - The tungsten industry has a complete supply chain from extraction to final products, with major applications in hard alloys (cutting tools, drill bits) and military materials [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - The current tungsten market faces a contradiction between tight upstream supply and insufficient downstream orders. Rapid price increases in raw materials have raised cost pressures for midstream alloy manufacturers, while downstream manufacturing orders have not seen significant growth, leading to potential losses in the midstream sector [2][7] - The easing of the US-China trade war has raised expectations for a recovery in downstream order demand, but upstream supply remains under national control, meaning that increased demand will not immediately reflect in upstream mining. The transmission effect will take at least a month, with longer processing cycles for tools and final products [2][9][10] - Major domestic tungsten producers include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten, while overseas companies like Sandvik and Kennametal focus more on product value addition and branding [2][11] Market Dynamics - Tungsten prices have risen approximately 20% since 2025, driven by export controls due to the US-China trade war, particularly on dual-use items, and a unified adjustment of tungsten mining quotas by domestic rare earth groups, leading to tight upstream supply [3][5][12] - The optimism in market expectations and insufficient inventory among domestic enterprises have contributed to the price increase, alongside speculative investments in the non-ferrous metals market [5][12] Challenges in the Tungsten Market - The market is currently challenged by tight upstream supply and a lack of downstream orders. Rising raw material prices are increasing cost pressures for midstream alloy manufacturers, while the reduction in orders has also led to a decline in secondary raw material production, affecting the prices of scrap and waste alloys [7][8] Emerging Applications - Although there is some demand for tungsten in the photovoltaic sector, its overall impact on supply and demand is limited. Research into using tungsten for battery materials is still in the experimental stage and has not yet significantly affected current supply and demand dynamics [8] Future Price Trends - The future price trajectory remains uncertain, with midstream sectors facing loss pressures. Current pricing is based on existing raw material prices plus processing fees. If future order volumes are substantial, there may be improvements, but no significant changes have been felt in the midstream sector yet [14] - Some industry experts believe that black tungsten concentrate prices may reach historical highs, with estimates suggesting prices could exceed 200,000 yuan per ton, although this view is not universally accepted [14]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report Core View - The short - term view of gold 2508 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation, and a short - term weakening outlook due to the easing of Sino - US relations which reduces the safe - haven demand and puts pressure on gold prices [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is bearish, the mid - term view is consolidation, and the intraday view is weakly consolidating. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel market affect the price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: After the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement on May 12, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and gold prices were under pressure. The Shanghai gold stabilized and consolidated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. After the market, overseas gold prices tumbled, with New York gold breaking below the 3200 - dollar mark, and Shanghai gold opened lower at the 750 - yuan level in the night session and weakly consolidated [3]. - **Policy Impact**: The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods on May 14, and modified the 34% reciprocal tariff measures on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. This led to a significant change in the international situation, an obvious increase in market risk appetite, and a sharp decline in safe - haven demand, resulting in the expected short - term weak operation of gold prices [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices continued to rebound. Due to the RRR cut and interest rate cut in China last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, non - ferrous metals with low inventories such as copper and aluminum trended upward, but nickel's performance was relatively weak among non - ferrous metals, indicating that the industrial fundamentals were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The strong upstream nickel ore provides support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. The overall trend of nickel prices is greatly affected by industrial fundamentals. With a good macro - environment, nickel prices are expected to consolidate with an upward bias, and the pressure at the April high should be continuously monitored [5].

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Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Gold 2508 is expected to decline in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - Nickel 2506 is expected to decline in the short - term, fluctuate in the medium - term, and show a weak - fluctuating trend intraday, with a wait - and - see view because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Support**: On May 12, after the release of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, the short - term safe - haven demand decreased, and the gold price was under downward pressure. Shanghai gold stabilized and fluctuated at the 760 level, corresponding to New York gold at the 3200 level. If this support is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak. Also, a continuous rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a continuous weak performance of the gold price [3]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Since this week, the nickel price has risen and then fallen. Although there were macro - level positive factors such as China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts last week and the Sino - US joint statement this week, the nickel price was weak compared to other low - inventory non - ferrous metals like copper and aluminum. - **Influencing Factors**: The nickel price is greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals. The strong upstream ore end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure on it. It is expected to fluctuate, and the macro - environment determines whether it is a strong - or weak - fluctuating trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is experiencing a significant surge in market sentiment and stock prices due to easing trade tensions between the US and China, leading to expectations of increased shipping demand and recovery in orders [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract of the European shipping index opened with a rise of over 10%, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the shipping market [1][3]. - The Dow Jones Transportation Index surged by 6.52%, indicating a broad positive movement in transportation stocks [3]. - A-share market saw significant gains in shipping stocks, with companies like Ningbo Marine hitting the daily limit and others like China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising over 12% [1][3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - Recent US-China trade talks have shown constructive progress, which has positively impacted financial and shipping trade sentiments [3][4]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for the European route showed a slight decline, indicating some pressure on freight rates, but overall sentiment remains optimistic due to trade negotiations [3][5]. - The effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, alleviating supply shocks for the US and demand shocks for China [6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict a potential increase in orders from China to the US, driven by the expectation of lower tariffs and a recovery in shipping demand [4][5]. - The market is expected to transition from negative feedback to positive feedback, with increased shipping volumes and seasonal demand contributing to a tightening of capacity in the US routes [5]. - The overall economic outlook for China will depend on macroeconomic policy, particularly fiscal measures, as the risk of export decline is significantly reduced [6].

Group 1 - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks led to a significant rise in global risk assets, with the Hang Seng Index gaining nearly 700 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.16%, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index rose by 2.98% and 3.01%, respectively [2] - Major technology stocks surged, with JD.com and Alibaba both rising over 6%, and financial stocks also performed well [2][4] Group 2 - The technology sector saw substantial gains, with stocks like Bilibili, JD.com, Kuaishou, and Alibaba all increasing by over 6% [4] - Apple-related stocks experienced a significant boost, with companies like GoerTek and AAC Technologies rising by over 18% and 15%, respectively, following price adjustments for iPhone models [5][6] - Financial stocks, particularly Chinese brokerage firms, showed strong performance, with China International Capital Corporation rising over 7% [7] Group 3 - Shipping stocks also saw notable increases, with China COSCO Shipping Holdings rising over 8% [8] - Conversely, gold stocks faced sharp declines, with Lingbao Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold dropping over 11% due to reduced safe-haven demand following the easing of US-China trade tensions [9] - Biopharmaceutical stocks fell, with companies like BeiGene and CanSino Biologics experiencing declines of over 8% and 5%, respectively, due to announcements regarding drug price reductions in the US [10] Group 4 - Southbound capital saw a net sell-off of HKD 18.528 billion, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [11] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the progress in trade negotiations, leading hedge funds to increase their long positions in Chinese stocks [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current fluctuations in gold prices, particularly around the $3400 mark, and highlights three major pitfalls that investors may encounter while attempting to capitalize on these movements [3][4][5] - It emphasizes that the recent rebound in gold prices, following a drop from $3509 to $3200, may be misleading, as significant capital has already exited the market, indicated by a 30% drop in COMEX gold futures open interest [3][4] - The article points out a decline in central bank gold purchases, particularly noting a significant reduction in China's gold buying and Turkey's selling, which could signal a turning point in the market [4][5] Group 2 - Regulatory signals, such as the doubling of trading fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and multiple ETFs halting subscriptions and redemptions, suggest an overheated market, reminiscent of past market corrections [5][6] - The article provides a strategic approach for long-term investors, recommending a phased investment strategy at the current price of $3400, with specific guidelines for increasing positions and setting stop-loss measures [9] - It advises maintaining a cash reserve for unexpected market events and suggests a hedging strategy involving gold stocks and physical gold to mitigate policy risks [9]