Core Viewpoint - The pig price experienced a rise in late October, returning to the 6 yuan era, but has since shown signs of stagnation and slight decline as of November, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of Q3 2025, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million heads, which is above the normal holding level of 39 million heads, suggesting an oversupply in the pig industry [2]. - The total pig inventory reached 437 million heads by the end of Q3, reflecting a 2.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2.3% increase year-on-year, indicating that the supply of pigs is increasing rather than decreasing [2]. - Cumulative pig slaughter in the first three quarters was approximately 530 million heads, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, further emphasizing the supply pressure in the market [2][4]. Seasonal Trends - The fourth quarter is typically a peak season for pork consumption, which also correlates with increased slaughter rates. Even maintaining the current growth rate, the total pig slaughter for 2025 could reach 710 million heads, just below the 726 million heads in 2023 [4]. Market Sentiment and Price Support - The previous rise in pig prices was largely driven by secondary fattening, but the current market expectations are low, leading to decreased enthusiasm for this practice due to rising costs [6]. - Two main factors currently support pig prices: the ongoing large pig market and market sentiment. As long as the price difference between large and standard pigs remains profitable, there will be some incentive for secondary fattening [7]. - Market sentiment remains stable due to upcoming consumption peaks in the fourth quarter, such as for preserved meats and holiday celebrations, which may prevent immediate price drops despite the lack of upward momentum [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fundamentals remain loose, and the rebound in spot and futures prices for live pigs is limited due to ongoing supply pressures and market sentiment [1][47]. Group 2 - From the price trend perspective, live pig spot prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, with national benchmark prices dropping from 13.69 yuan/kg to 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.88 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Futures prices have also seen a significant decline, with the LH2601 contract falling from a high of 15,070 yuan/ton to a low of 11,655 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,415 points [1][2]. Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has not decreased significantly, with the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a slight reduction from 40.43 million in June to 40.35 million in September, indicating that supply remains ample [7][9]. - The birth of piglets has shown steady growth, with the number of newborn piglets increasing from 4.75 million to 5.67 million, a rise of 19.4% [11][12]. Group 4 - National pig inventory and market supply continue to increase, with the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reaching 52.992 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [16][17]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in heavier pigs, with the proportion of pigs over 140 kg rising significantly, indicating ongoing supply pressure [16][19]. Group 5 - The planned slaughter volume for September was 13.32 million, but the actual slaughter was only 12.697 million, indicating unfulfilled targets and ongoing supply pressure [20][21]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has shown limited fluctuation, with a slight increase in average weight despite price declines [25][26]. Group 6 - Demand for pork is showing signs of recovery, driven by lower temperatures and previous price declines, with wholesale prices rising from 14.4 yuan/kg to 16.2 yuan/kg [30][31]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased, reaching a peak of 37.24% by the end of September, indicating a recovery in demand [30][33]. Group 7 - The price difference between white pigs and live pigs has narrowed significantly, indicating ongoing pressure on slaughterhouse profitability [38][39]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs has expanded, suggesting limited supply of fat pigs due to production adjustments [38][43]. Group 8 - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward price movement expected in the near term, and the market is advised to consider selling at higher prices [47][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, although the current second - fattening sentiment is high, it doesn't change the total supply in the market and will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm due to second - fattening, but the long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although the egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the demand is at a normal off - season level. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 305.00 yuan/ton (- 2.50%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.14 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.71 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.96 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 8.00 yuan (- 0.25%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.06 yuan/jin. On October 30, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. The egg sales have accelerated this week but briefly. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the terminal purchases on - demand. There is no short - term positive boost, and each link focuses on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish as the number of laying hens in production remains high and is difficult to reduce quickly in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pig prices is seen as a rebound rather than a reversal, with significant factors influencing this trend, including the entry of secondary fattening and market dynamics affecting supply and demand [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Pig prices have recently risen to over 6 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase after a period of decline [2]. - On the last day of October, pig prices experienced a drop, which is noteworthy compared to previous short-lived declines [2]. - The average entry rate for secondary fattening has reached between 25% to 40%, with some regions exceeding 50% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The entry of secondary fattening has reduced the supply of market pigs, while the onset of colder weather has increased downstream pork consumption, leading to a supply decrease and demand increase [4]. - Despite the seasonal increase in pork consumption during the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to rise significantly due to high production levels and the release of stock by pig farming enterprises [10][12]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability Concerns - The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to rising pig prices, which may lead to a more cautious approach among farmers [5]. - The price gap between market pigs and larger pigs has narrowed, making it less profitable for farmers to engage in buying market pigs to sell larger ones [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market is not expected to lack pigs, as high levels of breeding sows and piglets indicate a stable supply [12]. - While there may be slight price increases in November, the market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation, suggesting caution in pursuing further price hikes [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, the current secondary fattening sentiment is still strong, but it doesn't change the total market supply and will increase future supply. The short - term pig price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with large future出栏 pressure [2] - For the egg industry, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 12,185 yuan/ton yesterday, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.76 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.33 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 29, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 124.30, up 0.48 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 126.16, up 0.57 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.03 yuan/kg (unchanged), beef was 66.29 yuan/kg (down 0.5%), mutton was 62.35 yuan/kg (down 0.2%), eggs were 7.37 yuan/kg (down 0.3%), and white - striped chickens were 17.41 yuan/kg (down 1.6%) [1] Market Analysis - Secondary fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract was 3,165 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, up 66 yuan (+2.13%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.89 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin (unchanged) [3] - Inventory: On October 29, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days (unchanged) [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is mainly focused on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the current second - fattening sentiment is still strong, which is a reproduction link that doesn't change the total supply but will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated slightly this week, the improvement is short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton (-1.38%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.83 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.23 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also provided [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 28, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" rose 0.50 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.58 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4% [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening mainly by retail investors leads to a significant shift in pig supply. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with large future slaughter pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3099 yuan/500 kg, down 35 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also given [3] - Inventory: On October 28, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the situation in sales areas is stable. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is in a state of digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-28 二次育肥积极，猪价短期偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12330元/吨，较前交易日变动+155.00元/吨，幅度+1.27%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格12.46元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.30元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+130，较前交易日变动+435；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 12.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.29元/公斤，现货基差LH01+310，较前交易日变动+365； 四川地区外三元生猪价格11.93元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.21元/公斤，现货基差LH01-400，较前交易日变动+205。 据农业农村部监测，10月27日"农产品批发价格200指数"为123.32，比上周五上升1.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为125.01，比上周五上升1.21个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.96元/公斤，比上周五上升1.3%； 牛肉66.66元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；羊肉62.62元/公斤，比上周五上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.39元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.3%；白条鸡17.58元/公斤，比上周五下 ...

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]

1. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but long - term prices are not optimistic due to increasing supply pressure. Short - term disk operation may be strong, but the space is limited, and the medium - long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve. It is advisable to wait for the current round of spot prices to stabilize before entering the market for reverse spread trading [2]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract increased by 35.71% to - 225. The prices of "Live Pig 2511" and "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.22% and 0.20% respectively. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Hunan increased, while those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei decreased. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29% to 162,425. The weekly white - striped pork price dropped by 100% to 0.00 yuan. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively [2]. - **Supply - related Data**: The monthly inventory of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% to 4,038 million heads, and the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27% to 127.90 kg [2]. 2. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure and may continue to decline, but there is a chance of stabilization after the release of the MPOB report. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure. The impact of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has weakened, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but the basis may remain stable due to the oil mills' price - holding psychology [6]. Summary of Key Data - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, the futures price of "P2601" decreased by 0.11%, the basis increased by 7.58%, and the import profit decreased by 6.42% [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The influence of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has declined. The domestic inventory is high, but the basis may be stable. The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.07%, and the basis decreased by 2.29% [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10,000 yuan, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.04%, and the basis decreased by 18.43% [6]. 3. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Sino - US negotiations are progressing positively, and the US soybean price is rebounding. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but the crushing profit has deteriorated, and the inventory is high. The spot price is expected to remain weak, and the meal lacks a continuous upward driving force. The disk has support around 2,900 [8]. Summary of Key Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2,960 yuan, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.17%, and the basis increased by 1250.00% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2,420 yuan, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.60%, and the basis increased by 33.80% [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan, the futures price of the main contract of "Soybean No.1" decreased by 0.22%, and the basis increased by 4.23% [8]. 4. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while that in the North China is falling. The overall corn harvest progress exceeds 80%, and the selling pressure exists under a bumper harvest. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. Summary of Key Data - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2601" decreased by 0.33% to 2,133 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 104 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1.58% to 1,760,731 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.44% to 2,280 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 25.64% to 29 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 3.15% to 298 yuan [10]. - **Processing Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 35.53% to 1,793 [10]. 5. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Brazilian sugar supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum, and the current bottom - shock and weak pattern may continue [14]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.20% to 5,446 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.04% to 48 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.84% to 408,160 [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 2.92% and 3.11% respectively. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [14]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons [14]. 6. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton raw materials is resilient, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, the cotton price faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2601" decreased by 0.44% and 0.26% respectively. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.44% to 200,900 [15]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of "3128B" increased slightly, and the 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons [15]. 7. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly in the first half of the week but may decline slightly in the second half due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound faces resistance around 3,200 [17][18]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The prices of "Egg 11 Contract" and "Egg 01 Contract" increased by 0.98% and 1.98% respectively. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 9.23% to - 426 [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.65% to 2.98 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 14.91% to - 102 [17]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks increased by 1.92% to 2.65 yuan/feather, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 7.97% to 2.31 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by emotional factors and seasonal consumption recovery, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening entry [2][3] Pig Farming Sector - The concentration of large pig sales has led to a decrease in large pig inventory, widening the price gap and increasing the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, with a sales proportion of 2.09% from October 11-20, up by 1.07 percentage points [1][2] - The national average pig price on October 24 was 11.81 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.63 yuan/kg week-on-week [2] - The average weight of pigs sold continues to decline, with an average weight of 127.90 kg for the week of October 24, down by 0.35 kg week-on-week [2] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in pig prices, with increasing losses in farming and enhanced expectations for capacity reduction policies, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in the price center [1][3] Cattle Sector - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, while long-term trends suggest a potential upward cycle for beef prices due to previous long-term losses leading to capacity clearance [4] Dairy Sector - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.04 yuan/kg as of October 17, remaining stable week-on-week but down 31% from the cyclical high [4] - The ongoing losses in raw milk are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [4] Poultry Sector - The price of white chickens remains stable, with a price of 6.88 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a slight increase week-on-week [5] - Egg prices have decreased, with an average price of 6.06 yuan/kg, while chick prices remain stable [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded from a low, with a current price of 2984 yuan/ton as of October 24, down by 26 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - The futures market for soybean meal showed a recovery, with the main contract closing at 2933 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton week-on-week [7]