| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, particularly focusing on the impact of environmental policies in Hunan and other provinces on pig farming and supply dynamics [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Environmental Policies Impact**: Hunan's strict environmental checks are accelerating the exit of smallholders from pig farming, which may significantly affect local pig production capacity. This policy targets farms with over 50 pigs and is expected to last from June to September [2][4]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The exit of smallholders has reduced their share in pig inventory to below 40%. The tightening of environmental regulations may also impact medium and large-scale farms, as few meet compliance standards [2][4]. - **Market Behavior**: In the Southwest region, farmers are increasingly raising larger pigs due to local dietary preferences and favorable feed prices. Current average slaughter weight is around 135 kg, and a reduction to 120 kg could increase supply pressure by approximately 10% [6][7]. - **Price Trends**: High piglet prices in the first half of the year are attributed to increased demand from the expansion of free-range farming in Shandong and the growing need for piglet fattening in the Southwest [9][11]. - **Substitution Effects**: Farmers are shifting from breeding sows to fattening piglets or finishing pigs, creating a substitution effect between these two farming methods [10][11]. - **Demand Comparison**: The Southwest region shows stronger demand compared to Shandong, driven by insufficient frozen meat stocks and anti-dumping policies limiting imports, which narrows the price gap between fresh and frozen products [12][13]. - **Cost Structure**: Listed companies with self-breeding and self-raising practices have a cost advantage, with production costs around 12-12.5 yuan per kg, compared to 13-14 yuan per kg for smallholders who purchase piglets [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Effects on Market Behavior**: The recent ban on secondary fattening by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has paradoxically increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening among farmers, as they anticipate price increases [8]. - **Future Outlook**: There may be a concentration of market supply in the second half of the year due to NDRC's requirements for large enterprises to reduce average weights. The impact of piglet diarrhea in the Southwest during the first quarter is expected to have a minor effect on supply in July and August [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine industry, highlighting the interplay between regulatory changes, market dynamics, and cost structures.

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply continues to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [7]. - Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot. The current price increase is seen as a rebound, and in the medium to long term, it is affected by the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - fattening sales. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future reserve policies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 pig futures contract opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,217 lots to 166,443 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Policy**: On June 9, Huachu Network announced the notice of the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on June 11, 2025, with a purchase and storage volume of 10,000 tons. The final transaction price of No. 2 - 4 meat on the 11th was 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the pen utilization rate is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased. With rising temperatures, terminal demand has weakened, and slaughterhouse orders have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143,900 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 900 heads from a week ago [7]. - **Supply**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter weight remained high as farmers slaughtered normally and those who previously engaged in second - fattening actively sold their pigs due to the inverted price difference [7]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - In May, the average market sales price of 15KG piglets was 627 yuan/head, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [11]. - In May, the average national slaughter weight was 129.5 kg, a 0.6 kg increase from April, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [11]. - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, it was 2.5%, a 3.7 percentage - point month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the price of pig compound feed was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month and a 2% year - on - year increase [11]. - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg and a 4.38% decrease compared to 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg and a 5.9% decrease compared to 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, pricing trends, and production strategies for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Due to policy impacts, there has been a reduction in secondary fattening and restocking, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to high barn utilization rates, especially in Northeast, Henan, and Shandong provinces [1]. - The average weight of pigs is expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025, resulting in greater supply pressure [1][6]. - The expected increase in slaughter volume from mid-June to mid-July may slightly alleviate supply pressure, but overall price trends are downward [1][7]. Pricing Trends - Current profitability for commodity pigs is approximately 160 RMB per head, while profitability for piglets ranges from 460 to 480 RMB [1][13]. - The average price of pigs is projected to remain between 14 to 15 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025, with industry average costs around 13.5 RMB, leading to an average profit of about 200 RMB per head [2]. - A significant price drop is anticipated, with projections suggesting prices could fall to 13.5 RMB per kilogram by mid-July [17]. Production Strategies - Major enterprises are implementing weight reduction strategies to manage supply and stabilize prices, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt changes [8][9]. - The trend of weight reduction is expected to continue through July, with a potential rebound in prices due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [14]. - The expansion of breeding sow capacity among leading enterprises has stabilized, with a slight increase expected in 2024 due to anticipated demand for piglets in 2025 [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment among large-scale producers is cautious, with many not willing to expand sow capacity despite current profitability [19][20]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential price rebounds in late July due to reduced supply and seasonal demand [14][16]. - The possibility of government intervention exists if prices fall below 14 RMB per kilogram, as seen in previous instances [16][17]. Additional Insights - The secondary fattening process has seen a significant impact, with leading enterprises halting sales of pigs intended for this purpose, leading to a stalemate in the market [3]. - The collaboration between breeding farms and fattening companies is increasing, driven by the need for stable piglet supply and cost reduction [24][25]. - The overall industry faces challenges in managing sow capacity, particularly in light of past rapid expansions following African swine fever outbreaks [18]. Conclusion - The swine industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply pressures, pricing challenges, and strategic production adjustments. The focus remains on managing weight reductions and anticipating market fluctuations while considering policy impacts and market sentiment.

如何看待生猪养殖行业最新变化？20250609 摘要 年后屠宰量增加主要源于蛋白产品替代、鲜冻转换以及屠宰集中度提高， 规模化定点屠宰场受益于养殖集中度和产业链发展，屠宰量显著增长， 而小型屠宰点规模下降。 养殖企业提高出栏体重旨在降低成本、提高栏舍利用率，并满足市场对 大体重猪的需求。大规模换种也使得 130 公斤左右的猪更具养殖效益， 企业虽曾尝试降体重，但因大体重猪畅销而维持或提升出栏体重。 政策旨在提升猪价，大型养殖公司逐步降低出栏量和体重，并执行二次 育肥禁令以去化库存。但社会养殖群体盲目性可能导致投机行为，需大 型公司带头执行政策。 二次育肥限制政策旨在阻断疫情传播和非法检疫，集团公司已禁止向二 次育肥出售饲养票，但仍存在漏洞。山东等地已开始查处违法行为，但 政策执行效果仍待观察。 部分养殖公司已开始控制母猪产能，禁止增量并逐步减少数量，但具体 执行效果仍需观察。此前，由于批次化生产模式，削减母猪产能成本较 高。 Q&A 三四月份的整体行情确实比预期好很多，主要原因有几个方面。首先是节前的 悲观预期导致了超卖现象，加上部分地区流行性腹泻和其他小型动物疫病，使 得节前体重超卖严重。这不仅是结构性存栏 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，6 日生猪主力 2509 合约 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry in China, focusing on the trends in pig prices and production dynamics for the second half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Slaughter and Weight Trends** - National slaughter volume has decreased from 460,000 to 410,000 heads in early June, with average weights maintained at 126-128 kg [2][3]. - A slight reduction in slaughter and consumption is expected in June, estimated at 3%-4% [1][3]. 2. **Price Expectations** - The price of pigs is anticipated to remain weak in June, with projections indicating fluctuations around 7-8 yuan per kg [1][7]. - If prices drop below 7 yuan per kg, large producers are likely to enter the market aggressively [1][4]. 3. **Impact of Policy Recommendations** - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has suggested reducing pig weights and limiting sow production, but the immediate impact on prices is expected to be limited [3][5]. - Despite recommendations, many producers are reluctant to lower weights due to current profitability [3][5]. 4. **Future Market Dynamics** - A potential surge in secondary fattening is expected around July-August 2025, driven by profit motives and historical trends [5][6]. - The influence of large farming groups on northern pig prices is increasing, which may stabilize price fluctuations [7]. 5. **Cost Pressures** - Rising feed costs due to stable corn prices and poor wheat harvests are anticipated to exert pressure on the swine industry [11][12]. - The cost of raising pigs is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, influenced by raw material prices [12]. 6. **Consumer Behavior and Market Demand** - Mid-range consumer demand appears to be better than expected, with a 35% increase in slaughter volume from January to May attributed to various factors including the shift from frozen to fresh products [10][11]. - The impact of seasonal factors, such as weather and agricultural cycles, is also noted as influencing market dynamics [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - The high prices of piglets are primarily due to pricing strategies and significant deliveries in the first quarter, with expectations of a price drop post-June [8]. - The overall production efficiency in the swine industry has reached a plateau, indicating that future competition will focus more on pricing and volume rather than efficiency improvements [10]. - The execution of policies regarding secondary fattening is inconsistent, with market prices being the primary driver for producer decisions [4][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the swine industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and cost pressures.

根据行业分析师的研究，二次育肥会人为拉长出栏时间，造成阶段性出栏量差异较大，导致出现"助涨 助跌"现象。有头部猪企停止销售二次育肥商品猪 端午节后第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续涨势，牧原股份连续两个交易日累计上涨近10%，神农集 团、巨星农牧同期上涨超10% 端午节后的第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续良好势头，牧原股份（002714）(002714.SZ)、神农集团 （605296）(605296.SH)和巨星农牧（603477）(603477.SH)等表现不错。这与猪价稳定的预期有关，猪 价稳定预期又与二次育肥的最新消息有关——一些头部猪企暂停对二次育肥客户出售商品猪。 6月3日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者从牧原股份、神农集团、新希望(000876.SZ)等多家猪企了解到， 至少有两家头部猪企暂停了这一业务，且对商品猪只开屠宰类检疫票。这意味着只能用作屠宰的商品猪 无法进入二次育肥被再次饲养。 所谓二次育肥，是指养殖户购进已达正常出栏体重的生猪，继续育肥至350斤或以上再出售，以赚取价 差和增重利润的短期养殖模式。 生猪板块之所以上涨，和二次育肥的消息有关。有市场消息称，行业接有关部门通知要求控制出栏猪体 重并 ...

生猪：又到布局时，一线专家怎么看 20250602 摘要 如何看待政策执行过程中的潜在影响？ 春节后猪价坚挺，前五个月盈利优于去年同期，主要因冻品库存低，春 节后有库存积压，且官方及第三方数据可能高估了去年基础产能和新生 指数数量，从而低估了今年上半年供给。 下半年生猪供给或高于去年，但增幅预计小于 10%，低于期货市场悲观 预期。去年下半年均价 18 元/公斤，目前 14.5 元/公斤，降幅近 20%。 若按期货 13.5 元/公斤均价，降幅超 20%过于悲观。 多部门联合调控生猪产能，旨在提振价格，修复行业盈利，降低负债风 险。上市公司整体负债已从高峰 4,500 多亿降至 3,000 多亿，但负债率 仍较高。 若能有效执行降重政策至 125 斤，将显著提升养殖效益，减少 3,400 万 头出栏量。低端企业已响应降重销售，下半年价格预期或更乐观，但需 观察具体执行情况。 当前低利率和信贷宽松环境为行业提供融资便利，但货币政策转向将带 来高债务风险。农业部和央行希望提升物价水平，猪肉价格对 CPI 影响 较大，需减少同比降幅。 Q&A 当前生猪行业的情况如何，包括投资机会？ 去年下半年，农业部在官方媒体上对 ...