Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish with a long - term strategic allocation recommendation, suggested to buy on dips [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds, both short - term trial and long - term investment are advised [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium - to - long - term, waiting for opportunities to short on rallies [1] - Lead: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to take long positions after corrections [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long run, showing a long - term bullish trend. The short - term price may be supported around 770, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver also has an upward trend, with a trading range of 9150 - 9400 in the short - term, and long - term investment is recommended [1][3][4] - Copper is in a high - level consolidation phase. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation overseas and it is the consumption off - season, the domestic social inventory is relatively tight. Long - term demand is expected to pick up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits [1][7][8] - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited [1][10][11] - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure due to insufficient terminal orders. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress [1][14][15] - Nickel price rebounds and then falls. With the slowdown of downstream production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate demand is about to enter the peak season. With supply - side speculation, there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch, and long positions should be held [1][22][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the impact of tariffs fades and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and impending US interest rate cuts, gold prices consolidate after a decline, and silver rebounds after stopping the decline [2] Basic Logic - Japan may raise interest rates in October. The US is likely to cut interest rates in September. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - Gold may be supported around 770 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range of silver is 9150 - 9400, and short - term trial orders can be made, while long - term investment is supported by fundamentals and the market trend [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper prices fall under pressure and test the support at 79,000 [7] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight. Although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas copper inventories accumulate slightly, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the supply - demand balance is tight throughout the year [7] Strategy Recommendation - After the macro - positive factors are realized, copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish, with the Shanghai copper price focusing on the range of [78000, 80000] and the LME copper price on [9650, 9950] dollars per ton [8] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc prices fall under pressure and show a weak and volatile trend [10] Industry Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is ample, and refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventories accumulate, while overseas LME zinc warrants are in short supply, with a risk of a soft squeeze [10] Strategy Recommendation - With tight LME zinc warrants, zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited. The Shanghai zinc price focuses on the range of [22200, 22800], and the LME zinc price on [2700, 2900] dollars per ton [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina prices first rebound and then fall [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment is positive, but downstream demand is weak, and inventories are rising. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with supply - demand remaining loose in the short - term [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel prices are under pressure [17] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and although short - term inventories decline, there is still long - term pressure [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens lower, strongly rallies, and then falls in the afternoon following market sentiment [21] Industry Logic - Although domestic weekly production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about production stoppages on the supply side, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [22] Strategy Recommendation - With the expectation of supply - side speculation still existing, long positions should be held in the range of [84200 - 88000] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a focus on long - position opportunities, with a mid - to - long - term strategic allocation recommendation [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating a long - position strategy after a decline, with a long - term upward trend [1] - Copper: ★★, recommending trial long positions on dips, with a long - term optimistic outlook [1] - Zinc: ★, showing a bearish trend, suggesting short - position opportunities at high prices [1] - Lead: ★, with a bearish trend and the price under pressure [1] - Tin: ★, having a short - term rebound trend [1] - Aluminum: ★, with the price under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, suggesting short - position opportunities on rebounds [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, with a cautious long - position recommendation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting various non - ferrous and new - energy metals, including policies, inflation expectations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. It provides investment strategies for different metals based on these factors, such as long - position or short - position operations at appropriate times [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump cooled down the meeting, and there was news that the Sino - US tariff might be postponed for 90 days. Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. Also, the inflation expectation rose this week, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new policy exempts gold from tariffs, causing a short - term decline in physical demand. The market is trading inflation expectations, with a high probability of a September rate cut and an expected 1 - 2 rate cuts within the year. Trump cooled down the US - Russia summit. In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's decline, and long positions can be taken after it stops falling. The trading range is 9100 - 9300 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight Shanghai copper futures gapped down and rebounded under pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak seasons. LME copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, and domestic social copper inventory is tight, stimulating refined copper consumption. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80000], and the London copper price in the range of [9600, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc rose and then fell, and Shanghai zinc rebounded under pressure [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. The demand side is affected by tariffs and the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation in the domestic market [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on zinc prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. In the long term, short positions can be established at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22200, 22800], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina rebounded and then fell [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, and inventory is rising while demand is weak. For alumina, the supply from Guinea is stable, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and reached the daily limit [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is speculating on production suspension news, and funds are sensitive to positive information [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The speculation on supply continues, and long positions can be held in the range of [85000 - 89000] [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index has experienced a slight decline of 0.32%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting both gainers and losers in the market [1] - The top-performing stocks include Jerry Holdings, which hit the daily limit up, Yunda Holdings with a rise of 9.23%, and Guai Bao Pet with an increase of 5.21% [1] - Conversely, Huahai Pharmaceutical led the decline, followed by Kanghong Pharmaceutical and Huagong Technology [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index include Dongwu Securities, Kaiying Network, and Huagong Technology, collectively accounting for 20.47% of the index [2] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is 1.96, indicating that the valuation is at a historical low, being below 80.19% of the time over the past three years, suggesting attractive valuation [1]

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in A-shares is attributed to profit-taking pressure and changes in market expectations after a period of continuous gains [1] - PMI data has led to a cooling of expectations regarding incremental policies and pro-cyclical measures [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have become uncertain due to statements from the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in non-farm payroll data [1] - The agreement between the US and its allies has dampened expectations for improved US-China relations [1] - Despite these factors, the global monetary easing and ample liquidity in the A-share market remain unchanged, sustaining investors' bullish outlook [1] - The current market sentiment has cooled from an exuberant state, and a phase of consolidation in the A-share market is anticipated [1] Group 2 - The positioning of the market determines the behavior of leading funds, which in turn influences the structural patterns of rising industries [2] - Historically, liquidity-driven markets tend to see concentrated leadership in industries rather than a high-low rotation [2] - The focus of funds is on high consensus varieties rather than low-position varieties [2] - The performance in July confirmed that the market is gradually concentrating on trend-based varieties, as the efficiency of high-low rotation is relatively low [2] - A recent marginal slowdown in incremental liquidity suggests that the market needs to cool down for sustainable growth [2]

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in A-shares is attributed to profit-taking pressure and changes in market expectations following a period of continuous gains [1] - The Politburo meeting and PMI data have led to a cooling of expectations regarding incremental policies and pro-cyclical measures [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased due to statements from the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The agreement between the US and its allies has resulted in a decrease in expectations for improvement in US-China relations [1] - Despite these adjustments, the environment of global monetary easing and ample liquidity in A-shares remains unchanged, sustaining bullish market expectations [1] - The current market sentiment has cooled from an overly excited state, suggesting a phase of consolidation that may support a steady bull market for A-shares [1] Group 3 - Short-term focus should be on the timing of a potential weakening of the US dollar index and developments in US-China relations [1] - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, AI applications, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, transportation, and non-bank financials [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the tin industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The central thesis of the report suggests that the price of tin is expected to rise, driven by tightening supply and improving demand conditions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and consumer electronics recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin: A Competitive Advantage for China, Price Center Likely to Rise - Tin has a low abundance in the earth's crust, with significant resource advantages in China [7]. - Price analysis indicates that supply constraints and macroeconomic factors are expected to boost tin prices [18][34]. 2. Continuous Supply Disruptions, Incremental Growth May Fall Short of Expectations - Supply disruptions are ongoing, particularly in Myanmar, where production recovery is slow [46]. - The report anticipates that global tin production in 2025 will be around 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. 3. Demand Growth Driven by AI Trends - The demand for tin solder is expected to increase significantly due to the high growth in artificial intelligence applications and the recovery of consumer electronics [3][31]. - The report forecasts a global refined tin supply gap of 8,300 tons in 2025, highlighting a pronounced supply-demand imbalance [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Xingye Silver Tin, which are positioned well due to their resource advantages and global strategies [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing volatile fluctuations, characterized by a lack of sustained trends, with significant resistance at the $3250 level and support at $3207, indicating a broader range of consolidation [1][2][3]. Market Analysis - Recent movements in gold prices have shown a jump to test the $3250 resistance but failed to break through, leading to intense market contention as traders await a decisive breakout [1][2]. - The central bank's recent interest rate cut to below 1% signals a trend towards global monetary easing, which is expected to impact inflation and consumer prices, potentially driving interest in gold [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with indications that a rate cut may be considered in the latter half of the year, influenced by external pressures including comments from former President Trump [2]. Technical Indicators - The gold price has recently broken below the $3207 support level, indicating a bearish trend, with the next key support identified between $3175 and $3170 [5]. - The market is currently in a choppy trading environment, where quick price movements may mislead traders into thinking a trend is forming, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss strategies [3][5]. - A confirmation of a trend reversal will only occur if the price breaks above the previous high and does not create new lows, highlighting the need for cautious trading strategies in the current environment [5].

在这样的背景下，把你们代入到现在的我会怎么办呢？肯定是不愿意卖的对吧，本来仓位就不够，再卖就更少了。但现在这个位置大仓位买进去也觉得有 些别扭，所以也想等一个周线级别的回撤，比如能跌回5.3左右的平台再加仓。 那要是不回调呢？不回调就拉鸡脖倒，人只有不吃饭会死，不买黄金死不了。 今天没啥瓜能吃，就随便聊聊之前评论里读者问比较多的几个问题。 比如最近关注度一直很高的黄金。 图中蓝框就是2022年那会的震荡平台，我当时手软，就买了150多，后面捏着鼻子又追了50，但这离我的目标差老远了。 首先一个人的交易应该和自己预设的计划相关，比如我，我大概在2022年就在夜报里说过要逢低建仓黄金，目标是买到我家庭资产的5%左右。但这个目 标执行的时候不是很急迫，我也存了捡便宜的心思，所以逢跌就买点，不跌就继续等。 结果没想到转过年黄金就起飞了，之后就一发不可收拾的涨了2年，差不多得有50%。期间我的心情是苦乐参半，赚钱是赚钱，但仓位一直没买到预期 值。这两年里黄金非常强势，一直等回调，一直不回调。 我？？？谁能想到人工客服的入口，就是让这个弱智ai帮你联系。 对于黄金的中长期我是偏乐观的，因为现在全球都在进入下一个宽松周期， ...