Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

（2）国际大豆：市场交易重心转移至北美播种季，巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：关注节后巴西大豆清关情况，当前现货偏紧，随着到港大豆集中， 油厂开机恢复，现货偏紧的情况逐步缓解。节后下游开启补库阶段，短期或将提振豆粕成 交。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡运行。 1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8080 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（20）、天津 3160 元/吨（-140）、 日照 3110 元/吨（10）、东莞 3100 元/吨（-40）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2194 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收 ...

德国总理默茨：美国总统特朗普也在讨论关税争端对美国经济的损害。 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Midea Group and Hisense Group marks a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the domestic home appliance industry, moving from fierce rivalry to a cooperative approach to tackle challenges in the evolving global economy and technology environment [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - Midea Group and Hisense Group will focus on AI applications, advanced manufacturing, and smart logistics as part of their strategic cooperation [2][3]. - The companies plan to develop a wide range of digital and AI application platforms, particularly in manufacturing and logistics, while also exploring green factories and industrial internet collaboration [3][5]. - Both companies aim to enhance their core technology capabilities and optimize their production and logistics systems through this partnership [3][5]. Group 2: Background and Market Context - The collaboration is seen as a response to the changing market dynamics, where traditional competitors are now seeking to combine strengths rather than compete head-to-head [6][8]. - Midea Group and Hisense Group have different core focuses, with Midea primarily in white goods and Hisense in black goods, which reduces direct competition and allows for collaboration [7][8]. - The partnership is also influenced by external factors such as tariff disputes affecting the home appliance industry's international expansion [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Hisense Group reported a projected revenue of 214.3 billion yuan for 2024, with overseas income accounting for 996 billion yuan, or 46.5% of total revenue [8]. - Midea Group disclosed a revenue of 409.1 billion yuan for the previous year, with overseas revenue making up 41% [8]. - The market reaction to the collaboration has been muted, with Midea's stock price showing a slight increase while Hisense's stock performance varied [8].

【环球时报报道 记者 陈子帅】据中国外交部消息，应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副 总理何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈。访瑞期间，何立峰副总理 作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。中国外交部发言人7日介绍 说，这次会谈是应美方请求举行的。 路透社援引两名知情人士的话称，谈判预计将讨论全面降低关税。其中一名消息人士称，双方还将商讨 取消特定产品关税、此前被美国取消的中国商品小额豁免政策，以及中国对美国公司的出口管制。 在接受福克斯新闻采访时，贝森特坦言，美国对华的145%关税和中国对美的125%关税相当于"禁运"。 他还称："我们不希望'脱钩'，我们要的是公平贸易。" "中国同意和美国接触有利于更好传达我方立场。但这不等于谈判，也不意味着让步。"复旦大学美国研 究中心副主任、教授宋国友7日对《环球时报》记者表示，无论是接触、会谈还是未来可能的谈判，中 方都将维护自身利益，"这是中方考虑到国际经济发展以及中美两国互动而采取的善意举措"。 路透社提到，这将是今年3月中国国务院总理李强在北京会见美国联邦参议员戴安斯以来，中美高级别 官员再次见 ...

Core Points - The EU is preparing to include Boeing aircraft in its countermeasures against the US due to failed negotiations [1] - The EU has suspended retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods until July 14, 2023, to promote negotiation progress [2] - The aerospace and defense sector in the US has a significant trade surplus, with exports nearing $136 billion and imports just below $22 billion in 2023 [3] Group 1: EU's Trade Measures - The EU Commission plans to add civil aircraft to a target list of US imports worth €100 billion if negotiations do not progress by July 14 [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner stated that currently, 70% of EU exports to the US are subject to tariffs, which could rise to 97% if the US continues imposing tariffs on various sectors [2] - The EU is prepared with alternative plans to restore fair competition if negotiations with the US do not yield necessary results [2] Group 2: Impact on the Aerospace Industry - Airlines are considering delaying deliveries of Boeing or Airbus aircraft to avoid increased costs from tariffs [2] - Airbus CEO expressed concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on both European and American stakeholders, emphasizing the need for resolution [3] - The current trade tensions are damaging the high-performance transatlantic ecosystem in the aerospace sector [3]

仲量联行项目策略及顾问部资深董事李远峰表示:中美贸易摩擦升温与关税争端持续发酵，为香港经济 前景蒙上阴影，楼市不确定性加剧下，买家避险心态上升。面对潜在利率波动与宏观经济不稳，准买家 普遍采取防守策略:或推迟入市计划，或转投面积细小、入场门槛较低的单位，甚至刻意买细一个码以 对冲潜在贬值风险。加上，政府大幅减少针对400万港元以下物业的印花税，令细价物业成为跌市中风 险较低的选择。对发展商而言，现时市况疲弱，细价物业可以针对更广泛的客户群，销售较有保证，预 期短期至中期而言，发展商仍会较倾向兴建细单位。 楼市踏入下行周期前，内地及本地各类型发展商均积极吸纳地皮，形成百家争鸣的情况。然而，过去三 年楼价下滑，普遍发展商的投地意欲不大。大型发展商则尚有不少土地储备，造就2025-2026年间， 60%的新盘单位来自新地(00016)、长实(01113)及恒地(00012)三大发展商，较2023-2024年不足40%的比 例显著提升。 仲量联行研究部资深董事钟楚如指出:现时新盘货尾仍不乏其他发展商所发展的新盘项目，待货尾逐步 消化后，主要供应量来自三大发展商的形势将更明显，中期而言，将有助发展商调节推盘节奏，令主要 ...

作者：金联创—王永涛 导读：2025年4月份，天然橡胶与合成橡胶趋势相似。因宏观因素的影响，天然橡胶与合成橡胶均宽幅 下行，但跌后呈现区间震荡。 行情回顾 天然橡胶： 4月份，天然橡胶行情经宽幅下行后呈现区间运行。期货方面，4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布对等关税措 施，大宗商品普遍承压。7日开盘国内多数期货合约跌停。此后，中美双方博弈加码市场悲观情绪，期 货市场在中旬依然显出弱势。下旬，国内现货库存下降，同时开割初期成本偏高也支撑市场，但需求仍 受到抑制，业者持有谨慎情绪，期货行情呈现震荡态势。现货方面，期货的弱势也使得现货市场承压， 不过中下游客户逢低补货，贸易商也有回补空单，却带动交易。中下旬，由于对未来需求缺乏信心，下 游采买积极性不佳，现货市场也呈现出震荡态势。 合成橡胶： 数据：金联创整理 数据来源：金联创 4月份，合成橡胶行情经宽幅下行后转向区间运行。清明假期前，丁二烯外销货源溢价成交一度带动市 场，但是随着美国正式宣布"对等关税"，市场开始出现动荡。清明假期后，关税争端加码，全球资本市 场巨震，大宗商品宽幅下挫，BR、RU、NR纷纷触及跌停，由此，也因为供方宽幅下调合成橡胶价格 以及丁二烯下滑，合成橡 ...

为确保 " 五一 " 假期前后市场流动性充裕，央行近日加大资金投放力度， 4 月 27 日至 29 日连续三日净 投放共计 3130 亿元，上周公开市场全口径净投放 8640 亿元，其中包括 6000 亿元 MLF 操作。此举旨 在对冲政府债供给高峰对流动性的压力，维护资金面稳定。预计 5 月流动性将持续宽松，央行将继续通 过 MLF 、逆回购等工具提供中长期流动性支持，不排除降准降息的可能性，以配合财政政策支持实体 经济。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、铜 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，美容护理板块领涨，公用事业板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.04 万亿元，其中 IH2505 下跌 0.32% ， IF2505 下跌 0.21% ， IC2505 上涨 0.24% ， IM2505 上 涨 0.60% 。资金方面， 4 月 28 日融资余额增加 12.04 亿元至 17926.76 亿元。从本次关税争端风波来看 上证 50 和沪深 300 走势更为坚挺，这两个指数里的内需比重比较高，若后续中美间争端持续，受影响 程度会相对较小，防御性也较高；中证 500 和中证 1000 两个指数中成长型行业比 ...