Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is showing further signs of deterioration, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from -9.2 to -16 in June, reflecting a lack of recovery [2] - The New York Fed's new orders index also fell significantly from 7 to -14.2, indicating a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump aimed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but it has disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the decline in manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing widespread turmoil, with increased uncertainty overshadowing economic prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to focus on monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may maintain current interest rates due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance on easing [2] - There is a belief that the Fed should lower interest rates promptly given the economic challenges, but various factors are causing delays in such actions, potentially increasing downward pressure on the economy [2] Group 3 - The potential for "black swan" events could lead to a crisis for the U.S. economy, further undermining the dollar and American hegemony [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export activities among Chinese foreign trade companies, as they aim to fulfill backlog orders within a 90-day window to avoid higher tariffs in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Export Activities - Many foreign trade companies are racing to secure shipping slots and expedite production to meet U.S. customer orders within the 90-day window [1][5]. - The manufacturing PMI in May increased to 49.5%, indicating improved export conditions due to the tariff adjustments [4]. - Shanghai port's container throughput reached 4.65 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, reflecting the heightened export activities [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Response - Banks are closely monitoring the export activities of foreign trade companies, as the ability to deliver orders within the 90-day window is crucial for trade financing [2][8]. - Banks are adjusting their credit strategies based on the latest trends in export activities, providing support to companies that can meet the delivery deadlines [11]. - There is a growing demand for customized financial services from banks to support the unique needs of different foreign trade companies [3][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - Some foreign trade companies are facing challenges in securing shipping slots and managing production schedules, leading to varying levels of confidence in meeting the 90-day deadline [9]. - Companies are considering changing their contracts to FOB pricing to mitigate risks associated with tariff fluctuations [6][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has led to increased interest in foreign exchange risk hedging products among small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [10].

来源|证券时报 赤泽良圣定于周日返回日本，届时七国集团将在加拿大召开会议，会议将持续约一周。预计日本首 相石破茂和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将在会议间隙举行会晤，外界对双方宣布达成贸易协议的期待日 益高涨。 本周早些时候，赤泽良圣表示，日本将继续寻求全面撤销美国关税，并补充说他不打算陪同石破茂 出席七国集团峰会。尽管他指出上一轮谈判在达成协议方面取得了进展，但美国本周将钢铁和铝的 关税税率提高了一倍，达到50%。 赤泽良圣在谈到金属关税时表示："我们正在收集和分析相关影响的信息，将根据分析结果采取适 当的应对措施。"与许多其他国家一样，日本也面临汽车25%的关税，所有其他商品10%的关税。 若未达成协议，全面关税将于7月初升至24%。 关税迎来两大消息！ 美国关税持续影响，不过今天下午有两大稍显积极的消息传来。 首先，据日本媒体报道，美国在降低对日本的额外"对等关税"方面表现出灵活性。日本将向美国提 交一份关于构建稀土供应网络的合作方案，日本政府希望通过这项联合"应对方案"获得美国的让 步。 其次，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔当地时间周三表示，美国与欧盟就解决紧张关税争端的谈判正 在"快速进展"。据美国贸易代表办公 ...

5月31日，摩根大通发布研究报告指出，本周围绕美国关税的不确定性进一步加剧，美国法院根据《国 际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）裁定特朗普政府的关税措施违宪。尽管表面上看，这预示着美国对中 国（及其他亚洲经济体）下调关税的可能性上升，但白宫仍拥有大量替代权力（如第 122、301、338 条款）以实施关税。因此，摩根大通认为关税争端不太可能就此结束，目前仍不能完全排除美国关税维 持现有水平甚至进一步上调的风险（摩根大通仍预期美国关税将上升）。 外汇市场借此机会进一步平仓美元多头，美元指数本周从局部低点反弹。美元 / 离岸人民币汇率随之温 和走高，但与地区 peers 相比总体保持稳定，使得中国外汇交易中心（CFETS）人民币贸易加权指数 （TWI）跟随美元指数小幅走强（图 1）。人民币汇率的相对稳定也得益于区间波动的中间价设定 —— 中国央行将每日参考汇率维持在 7.18-7.19 的窄幅区间内，而摩根大通的模型预测显示合理区间应为 7.17-7.21。中国央行通过有管理的中间价设定，允许人民币汇率大致跟踪美元走势，但波动性比其他 货币更收敛（图 2）。 图 1：美元 / 离岸人民币跟随美元走高，但人民币本周 ...

从多周期分析，首先观察月线节奏，价格前期是三个月上涨后出现单月修正，近期属于四个月上涨出现单月修正，所以按照节奏上看已经出现四 连阳，对于目前五月份就要重点注意市场风险。从周线级别来分析，黄金价格受撑于3160区域的支撑位。那么从中线角度来看，我们可以持续保 持看多的观点，价格下跌仅作为中期上涨中的修正，价格只有下破周线支撑才会进一步承压。从日线级别观察，目前日线级别支撑于3278区域， 此位置作为黄金波段走势的关键，由于前期价格突破后昨日探底回升，目前暂时日线支撑区域如若出现反K信号可以继续看上涨，但是后续需要 上破前期下跌趋势线才会真正打开空间。从四小时级别看，暂时需要关注3295区域支撑，此位置决定短线走势的强弱，由于整体上大幅扫荡，我 们可以结合时间点及四小时、日线支撑表现跟随布局，保守者今日观望即可，待市场行情明了后再布局。 黄金 黄金方面，周四黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3330位置，最低下跌至3245位置，收盘于3317位置。针对周四黄金在早盘期 间价格先延续性下跌，之后再测试到近期上涨回撤的50%位置后向上反弹，从位置上看价格突破早盘高点位置则就不是极弱，早盘高点位置刚好 也 ...

德国大众汽车集团管理董事会主席兼保时捷首席执行官奥博穆在接受媒体采访时表示，公司正在与美国 政府直接磋商解决关税争端。奥博穆表示，如果关税争端得到解决，大众汽车愿意在现有美国投资的基 础上进行"额外、大规模"投资。(智通财经) ...

大众汽车CEO称公司在与美国政府就关税问题进行直接谈判 智通财经5月30日电，大众汽车首席执行官Oliver Blume在接受媒体采访时表示，公司正在与美国政府直 接磋商解决关税争端。"我之前亲自去了华盛顿，之后我们就一直保持着定期联系。到目前为止，我们 的谈判绝对公平、富有建设性，"Blume表示，如果关税争端得到解决，大众汽车愿意在现有美国投资 的基础上进行"额外、大规模"投资。 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend in government bond futures since early April has been characterized by "long strong, short weak," with short-term bonds experiencing significant declines after mid-April, while long-term bonds have maintained a volatile pattern [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain, with short-term yields appearing relatively appropriate after previous increases, indicating that the prior rise has exhausted policy space [1][2] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding real estate and external demand, making long-term bonds more attractive compared to short-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The short-term bond market has shown signs of overvaluation, with the yield spread between short-term government bonds and funding rates at historical lows, leading to concerns about the sustainability of short-term bond prices [2] - The basic economic fundamentals are more favorable for long-term bonds, as April's economic data indicates a general decline, making long-term bonds more sensitive to these fundamentals [2] - Investors should closely monitor changes in external demand and monetary policy, particularly regarding the central bank's potential resumption of secondary market government bond transactions, which could impact bond yields [4] Group 3 - The upcoming economic performance, changes in funding conditions, and developments in US-China trade negotiations will significantly influence the bond market in June [3] - The pressure on external demand is expected to gradually affect domestic demand, which could enhance the driving force for a stronger bond market [4] - As of the end of April, foreign investors' holdings of domestic bonds reached 29,781.5 billion yuan, reflecting an increase and indicating a growing interest in Chinese assets amid global market shifts [4]

欧洲央行管委内格尔：认为美国关税争端已有所进展，但仍面临更多障碍需要克服。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States, where both countries have agreed to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, marking a temporary easing of trade tensions [1][3] - Following the tariff adjustments, there has been a surge in demand from American buyers for Chinese goods, with many U.S. companies pre-loading containers in anticipation of the changes [3][5] - The logistics company ITS Logistics predicts a 20% increase in shipping costs from China to the U.S. West Coast in the coming weeks, indicating a critical period for inventory accumulation for shippers and carriers [3][5] Group 2 - Despite the short-term benefits, U.S. businesses, especially small enterprises, express concerns about the potential policy shifts after the 90-day period, as they still face a 30% tariff burden [5][6] - The ongoing fentanyl tariff issue remains contentious, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl control, which China disputes [6][8] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations hinges on negotiations regarding the suspended tariffs and the fentanyl tariffs, emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue to resolve underlying tensions [8][9]