| TERRET | 日博策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 三汤 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 頁金 | 短期高位区间震荡,但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 白银 | - (2) | | 刚果(金)铜矿供应存在扰动,加剧市场对铜矿供应短缺担忧, | 震荡 | 第四 | 但宏观对铜价提振有限，短期价格震荡运行。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 票汤 | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | | | | | 几内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to consolidate after a significant depreciation, but concerns over tariffs could make it vulnerable again [1] Group 1: Dollar Vulnerability - Analysts from Erste Group highlight that the dollar remains weak and could face new pressures if tariff concerns resurface [1] - The potential for a trade war escalation could lead to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. assets, further impacting the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic growth data is cited as a contributing factor to the dollar's fragility [1] - Criticism from Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chairman adds to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1]

金十数据5月6日讯，IG市场策略师Yeap Jun Rong表示："金价本周开始强劲上涨，投资者重返避险资 产，以对冲美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重新引发的关税担忧带来的投资组合波动。美联储任何温和的信号 都可能为黄金提供进一步的支撑，加强其整体上行势头。" 策略师：美联储任何温和的信号都可能为黄金提供进一步的支撑 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, primarily due to increasing concerns over tariffs impacting the economic outlook [1] - The index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [1] - This decline in consumer confidence has been observed for five consecutive months, indicating a persistent downward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Indicators - The anticipated GDP data for the U.S. is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, attributed to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs [1] - There is a potential for a substantial decrease in consumer spending, driven by high inflation and concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs, leading some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings [1]

金十数据4月29日讯，美国股市周二开盘走低，势将结束连续5天的上涨势头，芝加哥期权交易所波动率 指数徘徊在25附近。白宫有关（调整汽车）关税的言论吓坏了投资者，多家公司警告称经济不确定性上 升。Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth表示，易的不确定性继续推动全球市场和经济的不 确定性，在情况明朗之前，美国的贸易仍将波动。库存被搁置，希望一两个贸易协议将为更多的协议创 造模板。汇丰以Nicole Inui为首的策略师将标准普尔500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，以反 映美国经济增长放缓和关税压力对企业盈利的影响。预计在关税动荡消退、美联储开始放松政策、以 及/或通胀压力未能积聚之前，市场将在衰退和滞胀之间摇摆。 随着关税担忧升温，美股将结束连续五天的涨势 ...

欧洲Stoxx 50指数期货跌4.5%，受关税担忧影响。 ...

Group 1 - Proactive is a leading provider of timely, multi-media news and investor relations management, focusing on delivering actionable business and finance news to a global audience [1][2] - The news team operates from key financial hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth, specializing in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [2][3] - Proactive covers a wide range of sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - The company is committed to adopting advanced technologies to enhance content creation and workflow efficiency, leveraging decades of expertise within its team [4] - Proactive utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans to maintain quality and best practices [5]

我们总是对盈利零容忍，而对亏损却很放纵。一小赚就跑，一亏就死扛，总是在"入场亏损 - 持有死扛 - 解套就跑"的小赚大亏中循环着，能扛到解套还算幸运，很多人都是在扛不住大亏时，悔恨离场，似乎 天生是来给市场送钱的，而不是来赚钱的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250205— DeepSeek版：TL赠与我的（+关税担忧+PMI数据低于预期+午后资金面转松+股市下 跌=中下)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展6970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有14135亿元逆回购到期。净回笼7165亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，午后转松，资金价格偏贵。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. ...