一、研究观点 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约加速减仓，期价延续调整走势。当日，玉米 1 月合约 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 减仓 10 万手，3 月合约持仓跟随调整，玉米 5、7 月合约面临技术压力位，期价 呈现调整表现。周初华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强，华北地区基层农户售粮积极性 | | | | 整体依然偏慢，货源供应按照价格变化有所调整。企业以刚需采购为主，根据到 | | | 玉米 | 货量灵活调整价格。销区市场玉米价格整体偏弱运行。玉米期货盘面高位回落， | 震荡下行 | | | 东北产区价格松动，销区港口贸易商受到到货成本变化的影响，加上下游销售利 | | | | 润较低，高价采购玉米的意愿一般，港口报价继续窄幅下探。技术上，玉米 3、 | | | | 5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。短期来看， | | | | 玉米呈现技术调整要求，短线期价或将延续调整表现。 周二，CBOT 大豆跌至一个月低位，受出口担忧及南美丰产预期打压。阿根廷下 | | | | 调大豆等产品出口关税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains loose, and downstream slaughterhouses are smoothly purchasing. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏, and the supply pressure from large - scale farms is increasing. The downside space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. Second - round fattening is cautious, and small and medium - sized farmers are not under selling pressure. The futures market is slightly higher than the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than expected, but demand is weak. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic soybean arrivals in March. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, the potential negative impact of inventory growth to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of US soybean oil futures may cause short - term Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate around 4,100 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market is in a weak shock, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan and may briefly fall below. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stop falling in the 8,350 - 8,500 yuan range and then strengthen. For soybean oil, the US renewable fuel industry's demand for soybean oil remains resilient, but international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the supply pattern of soybean oil remains unchanged. Some traders' strong selling intentions may drag down the basis price, but the basis price has limited short - term fluctuations due to cost support [5]. Corn Industry - The short - term supply - demand of corn remains tight. In the northeast region, the arrival volume is shrinking, and the price is rising due to restocking and policy support. In the north - central region, the price fluctuates slightly. Traders are cautious about building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises need to replenish stocks. The short - term tight supply - demand pattern and strong northeast spot prices drive the futures price to a new high. Attention should be paid to the corn supply rhythm and inventory changes, which may limit price increases [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are weak. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus this year, which limits price increases. In India, the sugarcane crushing and production are expected to increase significantly this year. With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the price of Yunnan sugar has fallen, and the low - price sugar also affects the processed sugar and beet sugar markets. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a weak shock [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures have fallen to the lowest level in more than a week due to a weak export sales report and overall market weakness. Investors are waiting for the USDA's next export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast. In China, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the purchase price is falling. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side purchasing is weak, but pre - sales relieve the short - term supply pressure, and the basis price of spot sales is firm. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Egg Industry - Based on previous chick replenishment and inventory data, the laying - hen inventory in December is likely to decline, although it remains relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The market trading is light, downstream stocking has not started, and terminal consumption is weak. Traders purchase on demand, and the inventory at each link has slightly increased. Egg futures prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis has increased by 64.58%, the price of "Pig 2605" has decreased by 0.46%, the price of "Pig 2601" has decreased by 0.91%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 11.49%, the main contract position has decreased by 1.34%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased to 85 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions show various changes, such as a 50 - yuan increase in Henan, a 50 - yuan decrease in Shandong, etc. [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume has increased by 0.42%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 0.38%, the weekly piglet price has decreased by 2.86%, the weekly sow price remains unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight has increased by 0.32%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 8.90%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 6.05%, and the monthly reproductive sow inventory has decreased by 1.12% [2]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of "M2605" has decreased by 0.49%, the basis has increased by 6.57%, the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has decreased by 7.5%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 54.4% [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of "RM2605" has decreased by 0.58%, the basis has increased by 44.44%, the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has increased by 8.81%, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [4]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract has decreased by 0.82%, the basis has increased by 17.09%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract has decreased by 0.32%, the basis has increased by 6.67%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.77% [4]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remains unchanged, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal has decreased by 2.99%, the spot oil - meal ratio has increased by 7.10%, the main - contract oil - meal ratio has decreased by 0.58%, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has increased by 1.52%, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal price difference remains unchanged [4]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.58%, the futures price of "Y2601" has decreased by 0.39%, the basis has decreased by 5.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 111.96% [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong has decreased by 0.92%, the futures price of "P2601" has decreased by 0.73%, the basis has decreased by 160.00%, the import cost has decreased by 1.66%, the import profit has increased by 19.12%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.41% [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.80%, the futures price of "Ol601" has decreased by 0.96%, the basis has increased by 3.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 20 [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil has decreased by 4.17%, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil has increased by 11.76%, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil has decreased by 20.96%, the spot soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 30.00%, the 2601 soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 6.57%, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 2.10%, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 4.28% [5]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of "Corn 2601" has increased by 1.24%, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the basis has decreased by 43.90%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 76.67%, the Shekou bulk - grain price has increased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit remains unchanged, the CIF price has decreased by 0.11%, the import profit has increased by 3.51%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased by 11.52%, the position has increased by 4.76%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.51% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of "Corn Starch 2601" has increased by 1.09%, the Changchun spot price remains unchanged, the Weifang spot price remains unchanged, the basis has decreased by 100.00%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 39.29%, the 01 - contract starch - corn price difference remains unchanged, the Shandong starch profit remains unchanged, the position has increased by 0.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts is not available [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Sugar 2601" has decreased by 0.71%, the futures price of "Sugar 2605" has decreased by 0.64%, the ICE raw sugar main - contract price has decreased by 0.07%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 5.80%, the main - contract position has decreased by 0.28%, the number of warehouse receipts remains 0, and the effective forecast remains unchanged [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased, the Nanning basis has increased by 3.25%, the Kunming basis has increased by 3.88%, the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) price has decreased by 0.36%, the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) price has decreased by 0.38%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning has increased by 1.15%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning has increased by 5.08% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production has increased by 12.03%, the cumulative national sugar sales have increased by 9.17%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi has increased by 4.59%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi have decreased by 41.20%, the cumulative national sugar sales rate has decreased by 2.60%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi has increased by 4.80%, the US industrial sugar inventory has decreased by 41.20%, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi has increased by 62.90%, the industrial sugar inventory in Sichuan has increased by 26.60%, and the sugar import has increased by 37.50% [10]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Cotton 2605" has increased by 0.04%, the futures price of "Cotton 2601" has increased by 0.07%, the ICE US cotton main - contract price has decreased by 0.64%, the 5 - 1 spread has decreased by 16.67%, the main - contract position has decreased by 1.73%, the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 1.93%, and the effective forecast has increased by 19.39% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the CC Index of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has decreased by 0.12%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 01 contract has decreased by 1.17%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 05 contract has decreased by 1.66%, and the price difference between the CC Index of 3128B cotton and the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has increased by 0.43% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has increased by 24.2%, the industrial inventory has increased by 4.9%, the import volume has decreased by 10.0%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 5.5%, the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry has decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 0.9%, the grey - cloth inventory days have decreased by 2.7%, the cotton outbound transportation volume from Xinjiang has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 0.4%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 34.0%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 5.9%, the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 242.1%, the export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 11.6%, and the year - on - year export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 100.2% [12]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Indicators**: The price of the "Egg 01" contract remains unchanged, the price of the "Egg 02" contract has increased by 0.13%, the egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.29%, the basis has decreased by 10.70%, the 1 - 2 spread has decreased by 3.33%, the egg - chick price remains unchanged, the culled - hen price has decreased by 2.06%, the egg - feed ratio has decreased by 0.43%, and the breeding profit has decreased by 3.84% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The 11th USDA report adjustment is significantly bearish for the market. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure, while the domestic market has limited upside and downside in the short - term. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar production surplus pattern suppresses the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [6][7]. - **Pulp**: The pulp supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The cotton 2601 futures contract closed at 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,716 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. In October, Bangladesh's cotton imports were about 110,000 tons, a 27.5% month - on - month and 26.0% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative imports in the 2025/26 season were about 396,000 tons, a 11% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, leading to an increase in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to stockpiling. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased significantly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded due to the decrease in the expected new cotton yield and the increase in the purchase price of seed cotton. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - term, the cotton price has limited upside and downside. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [3]. Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The sugar 2601 futures contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The consulting firm StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 41.5 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the 2025/26 season [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price closed higher in a volatile manner. The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, and the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly. The short - term export of Indian sugar is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in the later stage of the Brazilian season is gradually weakening. The latest import volume of sugar and syrup in China is higher than expected, and the short - term supply pressure is increasing [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the valuation is low, and there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [7]. Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The pulp 2601 futures contract closed at 5,184 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.46%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,925 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The price of imported softwood pulp decreased, while the prices of imported hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp were stable [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price was weakly sorted. The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected. The demand in Europe and the United States was weak, and the domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mill's raw material procurement was cautious [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification, but long - term cotton prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [3] - Global sugar production is in a surplus pattern, and the downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to cost support and policy factors [4][5] - The pulp market has insufficient fundamental improvement, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,465 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1098, up 26 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1326, up 32 from the previous day [1] - India's clothing export value in October 2025 was 1.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.88% and a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. As of November 17, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report was bearish, increasing global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. The Northern Hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" was not prosperous, and now it is the off - season of the textile industry, with insufficient demand support [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure, but in the long - term, cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The sugar 2601 contract closed at 5366 yuan/ton yesterday, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5555 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 189, down 30 from the previous day [3] - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. From January to October 2025, the total imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - Globally, the sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [4] - In China, the new sugar season has a strong expectation of increased production, but the price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price. The stricter syrup control policy also supports the sugar price [4] Strategy - Be neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, and pay attention to the support at around 5350 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The pulp 2601 contract closed at 5298 yuan/ton yesterday, down 98 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 212, up 58 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 208, up 63 from the previous day [5] - The import wood pulp spot market price was weakly adjusted yesterday, with some brand prices in different regions falling [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply was still loose [6] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price [6] Strategy - Be neutral. The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and pay attention to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][6][9] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the decline of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices is limited. In the long - term, raw sugar may remain in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou sugar may have a pessimistic outlook next year [4][6] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.67%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,557 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan: As of November 15, 2025/26, the cumulative listing of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 753,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA's November report increased US cotton production, and global cotton supply and demand data were adjusted negatively. The short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestic: After the National Day holiday, the expected decline in new cotton production and the stable increase in seed cotton purchase prices supported the previous rebound. However, new cotton is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [1] Strategy - Short - term: Cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调. Long - term: Cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - India: The central government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season and will consider raising the minimum selling price [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Global sugar production is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: New - season domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the price is near the cost line, and the decline space is limited [4] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on the support around 5,400 yuan/ton, and treat Zhengzhou sugar with a shock mentality before the Spring Festival. Long - term: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may reach a new low next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Market: The import pulp spot market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was limited [7] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained high. Domestic port inventory decline was slower than expected [8] - Demand: Global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing, and domestic demand is weak, which suppresses pulp prices [8] Strategy - The continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][8][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market lacks obvious upward drivers, with international and domestic markets facing supply - demand imbalances. In the short - term, cotton prices are under pressure, while in the long - term, they are expected to be more optimistic. The sugar market is in a globally over - supplied situation, but short - term price declines are limited, and long - term trends are not optimistic. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance, with supply remaining loose and demand weak, limiting the rebound of pulp prices [2][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Different Commodities Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,579 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the USDA's November report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, the harvest area is 44.729 million mu, with a constant abandonment rate of 20.7%. The expected yield per mu is 68.7 kg, up 6.7% from September, and the expected output is 3.073 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons from September. The expected consumption is 370,000 tons, and the expected export volume is 2.654 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from September. The ending inventory increases by 152,000 tons to 936,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's November report significantly increased the US cotton output, and the global cotton output, consumption, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment direction. The northern hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak. Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded. However, new cotton is still expected to increase in production, the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not prosperous, and it is currently the off - season for the textile industry, with insufficient demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the supply - demand is not too loose. After the seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, an increase of 3.902 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 292,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 16.40%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production was 38.085 million tons, an increase of 611,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [4][5] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a pattern of over - supply, with Brazil's supply remaining strong, India's sugar production expected to rebound significantly, and Thailand's sugar production also expected to increase. However, in the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening. The domestic new crushing season has a strong expectation of increased sugar production, but the current price is close to the cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price, and the syrup control policy is tightened, so the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the support around 5,400 is strong, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may not be optimistic next year, with the possibility of new lows [8] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.11%. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Baikal) was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with only a few pulp types showing a strengthening trend [9] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port inventory removal was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. Domestic demand was weak, and although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' operating rate declined [9] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production may pressure prices, but the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise, but there is a risk of resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA report led to a decline in CBOT soybeans, and domestic soybean oil inventories are high with weak demand. Dalian soybean oil may correct in the short term [1]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, leading to a rebound in the futures market, but the supply pressure limits the upside. Attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: The Indian sugar export policy and the end of the Brazilian harvest result in a relatively calm fundamental situation. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain volatile next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet is bearish for cotton prices. Domestically, new cotton supply is short - term concentrated, and downstream demand is weak, but local product demand provides some support. Cotton prices may be under pressure in the short term [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet lacks significant information. There is no substantial bullish factor for US soybeans, and domestic soybean inventories are high. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is abundant, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. - **Pigs**: The spot pig price is weak, but there is support at low levels. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.35%), the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the basis was 334 yuan/ton (+36.89%) [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton (+0.23%), the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton (-1.23%), and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton (+70.33%). The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton (-8.89%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton (+0.29%), the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and the basis was 367 yuan/ton (+28.77%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, the basis was 25 yuan/ton (+78.57%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton (+5.63%). The import profit was 301 yuan/ton (+5.00%) [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price was 2505 yuan/ton (-0.08%), the basis was 5 yuan/ton (+66.67%), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton (0.00%) [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton (-0.76%), and the 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton (-16.46%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 14.85 cents/pound (+2.91%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton (0.00%), and the Nanning basis was 256 yuan/ton (+12.78%) [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased by 9.17% year - on - year [7]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton (+300.00%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 64.14 cents/pound (-0.68%) [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14594 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and the 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1124 yuan/ton (+0.45%) [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 70.4% month - on - month, and the textile and clothing retail sales increased by 19.5% month - on - month [9]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton (+0.33%), the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton (+0.68%), and the basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-52.38%). The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule import profit was - 7 yuan/ton (-800.0%) [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton (0.00%), the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton (-0.08%), and the basis was 10 yuan/ton (+25.00%) [11]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG (-0.23%), and the 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG (+10.22%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area was 2.98 yuan/jin (-0.34%), and the basis was - 51 yuan/500KG (-6.54%) [15]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract was 11775 yuan/ton (-0.72%), and the main contract basis was 582 yuan/ton (+103.57%) [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton (+0.50%), and the sample point daily slaughter volume was 162927 (-0.74%) [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face limited upside due to hedging pressure and weak demand, but are optimistic in the long - term due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate until the end of the year and may hit new lows next year due to global supply surplus [4] - Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level as the fundamentals improve insufficiently, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: India's cotton initial inventory in the 2025.10 - 2026.9 season is expected to reach about 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 55%, and the import volume from October to December may be 340,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is uncertain. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export signing [2] - Domestic: The new cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply has been supplemented. The rising purchase price of seed cotton and the expected decline in production support the post - holiday market, but the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. There is a possibility of a callback in the short - term, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.13%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: As of November 4, 21 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India have started operations, and more are expected to start soon [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus has pushed prices below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, the global sugar market may still be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar: The expected increase in domestic sugar production is strong, but the price is near the cost line, and the downward space is limited due to policy support [4] Strategy - Neutral. Oscillate until the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5368 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5060 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - Market News: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend, with some prices up 10 - 70 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact. Domestic imports have rebounded, and port inventories remain high [5] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand. Downstream paper mills purchase cautiously and do not stock up on a large scale [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand [6]