1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Due to concerns about production growth and export slowdown, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may enter a shock - adjustment phase. Monitor the resistance at 4,350 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to oscillate horizontally in the range of 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. Be wary of the risk of a pull - back if the Malaysian palm oil encounters resistance at high levels [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainties in US trade relations and expectations of a large US soybean harvest have a negative impact on CBOT soybeans and, in turn, CBOT soybean oil. However, the expected good performance of BMD palm oil due to pre - festival stocking may boost CBOT soybean oil. In the long - term, CBOT soybean oil may rise, while it is currently in a stagnant adjustment phase. In the domestic market, the spot market has slow sales, and the basis quotes are under pressure in the short - term but may be boosted in August [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall considering the increasing production pattern. In the domestic market, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, while the entry of processed sugar and expected increase in imports lead to a marginally looser supply - demand situation, suggesting a bearish view after rebounds [4]. 2.3 Corn - In the short - term, the market sentiment has recovered. Supply shortages support the futures price rebound, but the upside is limited. The policy auctions should be closely monitored. In the medium - term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption will support corn prices [7]. 2.4 Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at high levels. Although the downstream industry is still weak, the rising cotton prices have driven up yarn prices. The supply of old cotton after the price increase has put some pressure on the market, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market. In the long - term, cotton prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. 2.5 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced the egg production rate and egg weight, resulting in a shortage of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs is starting, and the trading volume is increasing. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [11]. 2.6 Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating phase, supported by expected dry weather in August and improved trade expectations. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The supply will remain high in the short - term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, limiting the basis decline. The market sentiment is suppressed by the government's promotion of soybean meal substitution. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 2.7 Pigs - The current supply - demand situation of pigs is weak. The recent rise in the futures price is mainly driven by market sentiment. Although there may be a short - term boost in trading volume at the end and beginning of the month, the supply is expected to recover. Spot prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the upside of the near - term 09 contract is limited. The far - term contracts are more affected by policies, and it is not advisable to short blindly, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 8,310 yuan, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 2 yuan to 8,074 yuan. The basis decreased by 18 yuan to 236 yuan. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 68 yuan to 8,994 yuan. The basis decreased by 68 yuan to 6 yuan. The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,550 yuan, and the futures price (OI509) decreased by 21 yuan to 9,456 yuan. The basis decreased by 79 yuan to 94 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4 yuan to 44 yuan, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 4 yuan to 20 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan to 53 yuan. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 690 yuan, and the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 70 yuan to - 920 yuan. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 80 yuan to 1,240 yuan, and the 2509 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 19 yuan to 1,382 yuan [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 3 yuan to 5,656 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan to 5,834 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.01 cents to 16.27 cents/pound. The 1 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 178 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 40 yuan to 5,920 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning decreased by 22 yuan to - 1,590 yuan/ton, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning decreased by 28 yuan to - 385 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 million tons, an increase of 152.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi reached 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 51.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.72 million tons, with a decline rate of 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, an increase of 6.42 percentage points, with a growth rate of 9.70% [3]. 3.3 Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 1 yuan to 2,321 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 39 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 74 yuan. The price of bulk grain in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan to 2,430 yuan. The north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan to - 11 yuan. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1,994 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 10 yuan to 436 yuan [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 increased by 7 yuan to 2,675 yuan. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,680 yuan, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan. The basis decreased by 7 yuan to 5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan to 49 yuan [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 45 yuan to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 35 yuan to 14,065 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.03 cents to 68.29 cents/pound. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 80 yuan to 115 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract decreased by 15,967 to 538,200, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 9,382 [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) decreased by 5 yuan to 15,411 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) decreased by 6 yuan to 15,543 yuan. The FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 35 yuan to 13,728 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 28.74 million tons to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons to 88.21 million tons. The import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 3 million tons. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.9 million tons to 32.7 million tons. The inventory days of yarn increased by 1.13 days to 28.36 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth increased by 0.63 days to 37.24 days [9]. 3.5 Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,637 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3,613 yuan/500KG. The price in the egg - producing area increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 82 yuan to - 305 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 8 spread decreased by 23 yuan to 24 yuan [11]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.02 yuan to 3.88 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens increased by 0.2 yuan to 4.80 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.14 to 2.25, and the breeding profit increased by 8.52 yuan to - 32.98 yuan/feather [11]. 3.6 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,920 yuan, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 9 yuan to 3,095 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan to - 175 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu was m2509 - 190. The import crushing profit for Brazilian September shipments increased by 4 yuan to 110 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 170 to 41,446 [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,660 yuan, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 22 yuan to 2,758 yuan. The basis decreased by 12 yuan to - 98 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong was rm09 - 130. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 7 yuan to 303 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [14]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 15 yuan to 4,217 yuan. The basis increased by 15 yuan to - 257 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract (No. 2) increased by 1 yuan to 3,724 yuan. The basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 64 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 162 to 14,522 [14]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 3 yuan to - 21 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 15 yuan to 314 yuan. The oil - to - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.007 to 2.85, and the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.008 to 2.61. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 260 yuan, and the 2509 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 337 yuan [14]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 310 yuan to - 290 yuan. The price of the 2511 contract increased by 340 yuan to 14,300 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 210 yuan to 14,590 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 130 yuan to 290 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract increased by 7,482 to 67,303, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pigs in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 14,450 yuan/ton. The price in Sichuan decreased by 50 yuan to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan to 14,050 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong decreased by 200 yuan to 15,740 yuan/ton, and the price in Hunan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,110 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei decreased by 150 yuan to 14,350 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 37 to 133,568, the weekly price of white - striped pigs decreased by 0.2 yuan to 20.63 yuan, the weekly price of piglets remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged at 32.52 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.2 kg to 128.83 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 43 yuan to 91 yuan/head, and the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding decreased by 50.3 yuan to - 19 yuan/head. The monthly number of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 4,042 million [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is small and in line with market expectations. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is at a relatively high historical level, and the weather in the main production areas is favorable, with no significant impact expected in the near term. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, supply capacity is increasing due to more auctions and high - temperature storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions continue, but the transaction premium and volume are decreasing [4] Group 3: Summary by Section (Market News and Important Data) Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 3029 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+1.75%); the rapeseed meal 2509 contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+2.49%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 30, 50, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: Brazil's expected 2025 soybean export volume is 1.1 billion tons, an increase of about 130 million tons year - on - year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised to 49.5 million tons [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The corn 2509 contract closed at 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.13%); the corn starch 2509 contract closed at 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and in Jilin, the corn starch spot price also remained unchanged [3] - Market News: As of July 12, 2025, the first - season corn harvest progress in Brazil is 98.3%. Brazil's corn exports from July 1 - 11 are slower than last year [3] Group 4: Summary by Section (Market Analysis) Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small. US soybean good - to - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, with rising soybean meal inventory and high physical inventory of feed enterprises [2] Corn - In China, corn supply is increasing due to more auctions and storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions show a change in market sentiment [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "sideways" or "sideways - weak" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures ended with a small doji star with an upper shadow. After two - month position - reduction adjustment, the position of the weighted contract increased. The spot price in the Northeast decreased by about 20 yuan/ton this week. The price is expected to fluctuate around 2320 - 2330 yuan, and may move towards the 2200 range if the support is invalid [1] - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - month low. The USDA is expected to raise the inventory estimates of US soybeans in 24/25 and 25/26. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 1193 tons, up 24% year - on - year. Domestically, protein meal stabilized due to improved macro sentiment, but the spot market was weak. Short - term unilateral participation is recommended, and long 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of soybean meal are advised to be held [1] - BMD palm oil declined due to a bearish MPOB report. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 10.52% month - on - month in June, while inventory increased by 2.41%. Domestically, palm oil futures fell, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. Oils are expected to move sideways, and intraday trading is recommended [1] - Egg futures hit a new low and then rebounded. The spot price was mostly stable. After the plum - rain season, demand is expected to boost egg prices, but the high is expected to be lower than last year [1][2] - Hog futures fluctuated narrowly and rebounded at the end. The spot price decreased slightly. Pig prices are under pressure but also have support, and are expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Market Information - US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 50.3 tons in the week ending July 3, up 9% from the previous week. 2025/2026 net sales were 24.8 tons. Exports to China were zero in both years [3] - CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.694879 billion tons, up 14.7% year - on - year and down 0.1% month - on - month [4] - MPOB data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month [1][4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract spreads are presented for corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and hogs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13] - Contract basis is presented for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [14][15][19][20][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term upward trend of domestic Zhengzhou cotton is supported by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is limited by the trade war. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, there will be significant pressure on cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the third - quarter Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] - For pulp, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,196 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The US USDA reported that as of the week of July 3, the net signing of US upland cotton this year was 17,000 tons, and the shipment was 55,000 tons, with 272 tons net - signed to China and no shipment that week [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather story is insufficient this year. With the expected increase in production in Brazil and China, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory provides short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and good growth of new cotton may lead to increased production. Weak demand in the off - season and accelerated inventory accumulation of finished products restrict the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton. In the long - term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term strength of Zhengzhou cotton is affected by tight inventory expectations, but the new - year Xinjiang cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is difficult to increase due to the trade war. Cotton prices will face pressure after the new cotton is concentrated on the market [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,805 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,895 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The Philippines SRA approved the import of 424,000 tons of sugar to maintain stable supply [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. In the short - term, the supply - side pressure has been largely reflected, and there is a possibility of a rebound. For Zhengzhou sugar, the fast sales progress of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory make the spot price firm. However, the increase in import profit and the expected arrival of subsequent shipments will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range in the third quarter, and the arrival rhythm of imported sugar needs to be focused on [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,196 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+1.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price showed an upward trend, with different price adjustments in different regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. However, slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high. Demand: Affected by the tariff policy and the traditional off - season, global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - Neutral. The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short term [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the domestic cotton price is supported in the short - term but restricted in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [5] - The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand, and the price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 6, the budding rate was 48%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; the bolling rate was 14%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 7 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year. The 25/26 global cotton market is in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment [2] - Domestic: The cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand is weak, restricting the upward space [2] Strategy - Adopt the idea of shorting far - month contracts on rallies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] - Forecast: The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June in Brazil's central - southern region was 44.24 million tons, down 9.7% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.95 million tons, down 9.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar: The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing the price in the long - term. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level. But the import profit is high, and the import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space [5] Strategy - Expect a range - bound and weak - oscillating pattern in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,106 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with sporadic fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and the domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [6] - Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-08 板块延续震荡，关注宏观扰动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13760元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15176元/吨，较前一日变动+6元/吨，现货基差CF09+1416，较前一日变动+26；3128B棉全国均价15201元/吨， 较前一日变动+1元/吨，现货基差CF09+1441，较前一日变动+21。 近期市场资讯，新棉生长方面，根据棉花信息网调查，截至6月30日，全疆棉花生长已进入开花盛期，开花果枝集 中在第四、五、六台，开花率约52.5%，较上周增加30.2个百分点。现阶段大部分棉田开始陆续打顶，预计7月上旬 基本结束。另外，7月1日，兵团第七师多个团场遭遇冰雹天气，部分棉田叶片和花蕾被击落，严重的造成棉杆折 断，但由于冰雹呈线性打击的特点，对整体棉花生长可能影响不大。后期需持续关注高温以及强对流天气的影响。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26 年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 利空情绪逐渐消化，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13785元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15171元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，现货基差CF09+1386，较前一日变动+55；3128B棉全国均价15203元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨，现货基差CF09+1418，较前一日变动+60。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至6月26日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约5352吨，装运5.8万吨。其 中至中国净签约-91吨，装运1066吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应端利好或难显 现，后续仍需重点关注各主产国天气及新棉生长状况。国内方面，由于前期棉花加速去库，商业库存降至历史同 期低位，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期，对棉价形成上涨驱动。叠加近期新疆局部地区气温偏高，个别棉田受阶 段高温 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 供应压力仍存，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2958元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.48%；菜粕2509合约2601元/吨，较前 日变动+23元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2920元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-38， 较前日变动-4；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-148，较前日变动-4；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2820元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-138，较前日变动+6。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家能源政策委员会计划在今年8月至2026年2月期间，将生物柴油强制掺混比例从目前的14% 提高到15%。从2026年3月起，这一比例甚至可能进一步提高到16%。6月上旬，加拿大油菜播种结束，加拿大统计 局预期播种面积2146万英亩，同比下降2.5%。 市场分析 整体来看，国内方面，当下仍处于巴西大豆的集中到港时期，近月到港量较 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 现货整体上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3037元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.98%；菜粕2509合约2657元/吨，较前 日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2860元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差M09-177，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动跌-30元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现货价格2650 元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM09-7，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，USDA表示，截至6月12日当周，24/25年度美豆周度出口净销增至53.95万吨，累计销售4913万吨， 进度97.58%；25/26年度美豆周度出口净销7.52万吨，累计销售119万吨，同比增7万吨，进度2.42%。 市场分析 整体来看，前巴西升贴水仍维持高位，进口成本的抬升支撑国内豆粕价格。此外，当前政策端中美谈判暂无新进 ...