农产品日报 | 2025-05-23 现货购销转好，豆粕宽幅震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2939元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.17%；菜粕2509合约2562元/吨，较前 日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09+21， 较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货2880元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-59，较前日变动+15；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M09-39，较前日变动+5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2540 元/吨，较前日变动+60元/吨，现货基差RM09-22，较前日变动+50。 近期市场资讯，巴西二季玉米收获工作即将全面展开，二季玉米产量占到巴西玉米总产量的75%。咨询机构 AgroConsult预计，2024/25年度巴西二季玉米产量将达到创纪录的1.129亿吨，较上年增长10.5%；预计种植面积为 1790万公顷，比上年度增加100万公顷或6.1%；预计2024/25年度巴西玉米总产量达到1.4亿吨。咨询机构SovEc ...

2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：印尼洪水炒作存疑，马来库存压力仍大 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：远月基差成交放量，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面略偏强震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 棉花：跟随市场情绪波动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：等待老鸡淘汰驱动 | 10 | | 生猪：情绪偏弱，阶段性去库 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：印尼洪水炒作存疑，马来库存压力仍 大 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,984 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Pressure is released periodically, and it is looking for support at lower levels [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fluctuations in US biodiesel policy have intensified short - term risks [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force, and the market is oscillating [2][13]. - **Soybean**: The spot market is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is slightly stronger and oscillating [2][13]. - **Corn**: It is running in an oscillating pattern [2][16]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [2][21]. - **Cotton**: It fluctuates following market sentiment [2][25]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [2][30]. - **Pigs**: Short - term expectations have weakened [2][32]. - **Peanuts**: They are oscillating strongly [2][37]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Data - Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.80% change, and night - session closing price was 8,022 yuan/ton with a 0.48% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% change, and night - session closing price was 7,786 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [6]. Macro and Industry News - EU is still discussing whether to classify Malaysia as a low - risk country under the EUDR, which may lead to trade restrictions on Malaysian palm oil. GAPKI urged the Indonesian government to postpone the plan to raise palm oil export special tax. Small - scale palm oil producers face financial inequality issues [7][8]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Data - DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4168 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 4185 yuan/ton with a + 0.48% change. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 2899 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - session closing price was 2896 yuan/ton with a - 0.21% change [13]. Macro and Industry News - CBOT soybeans were fluctuating, affected by South American soybean harvests, US - China trade relations, and US weather conditions. US soybeans lack price competitiveness under current tariffs, and Brazil's record - high soybean harvest dominates the global export market [15]. 3. Corn Fundamental Data - C2507's day - session closing price was 2,335 yuan/ton with a - 0.43% change, and night - session closing price was 2,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.09% change. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,351 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change, and night - session closing price was 2,348 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change [17]. Macro and Industry News - There were price differences in corn collection and sales in different regions, and the price of imported grains such as sorghum and barley was also reported [18]. 4. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 17.56 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6170 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5855 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress was slower year - on - year, USDA expected Brazil's production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season, India's 24/25 season sugar production was 2569 tons by the end of April, and Brazil's April exports decreased by 18% year - on - year [21]. 5. Cotton Fundamental Data - CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,390 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, and night - session closing price was 13380 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change. ICE US cotton 07's closing price was 65.14 cents/pound with a - 0.53% change [25]. Macro and Industry News - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was light, the cotton yarn market had some improvements but the profit situation deteriorated, and ICE cotton lacked upward - driving force due to good weather in US cotton - growing areas [26][27]. 6. Eggs Fundamental Data - Egg 2507's closing price was 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.06% change, and Egg 2509's closing price was 3,788 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.21% change [30]. Macro and Industry News - No macro and industry news was provided for eggs. 7. Pigs Fundamental Data - Henan's spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 14350 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15190 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts also showed certain changes [34]. Market Logic - The price spread between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted, group - farm piglet sales decreased, and short - term expectations weakened. The 11 - 1 reverse spread could be considered for medium - and long - term layout [36]. 8. Peanuts Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, and the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase. PK510's closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change [37]. Spot Market Focus - In different peanut - producing areas, the supply from farmers was limited, and the purchasing intention of downstream customers improved. Most areas had a strong price trend [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The domestic soybean price fluctuated yesterday, with the remaining domestic soybean supply decreasing, which is the main support for the market. The temporary supply shortage of imported soybeans has been alleviated, but there is no significant increase at present, so the price still has support. The remaining supply of farmers is limited, and the price quotes are chaotic, but the overall sentiment of holding out for higher prices is strong. Long - term attention should be paid to the state reserve rotation policy, farmers' spring sowing, and remaining supply situation [3] - The domestic peanut price rose yesterday. As of May 8, 2025, the national average price of common peanuts decreased by 0.24% compared with last week. The domestic peanut trading atmosphere is poor, the supply from production areas is limited, middlemen purchase on demand, and most of them hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the existing inventory. Traders purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is dull. Recently, major oil mills have started operations one after another, and it is expected that they will make stable purchases in the short term, which will effectively relieve the pressure on production areas to sell goods and boost market sentiment [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2505 contract yesterday was 4,172.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.05% [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 12, a change of + 2 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information Summary - On Wednesday, most contracts of soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.3%. Only the May contract closed slightly lower. At the close, soybean futures ranged from a decline of 9.25 cents to an increase of 5.25 cents. The May contract fell 9.25 cents to close at 1,067 cents/bu; the July contract rose 5.25 cents to close at 1,077.75 cents/bu; the November contract rose 1.75 cents to close at 1,061.25 cents/bu [2] - On May 15, the loading price of national standard first - class 39% protein medium - sized tower grain in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 2.08 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Baoqing, Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang, it was 2.06 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Fuyin, Jiamusi, Heilongjiang, it was 2.07 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nehe, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, the loading price of national standard first - class 41% protein medium - sized tower grain was 2.18 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nenjiang, Heihe, Heilongjiang, it was 2.16 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hailun, Suihua, Heilongjiang, it was 2.17 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract yesterday was 8,226.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.12% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,300.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.48%. The spot basis was PK05 - 226.00, a change of + 10.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 4.24% [3] Market Information Summary - Currently, the quoted price of Baisha common peanuts in Huangludian, Henan is 4.20 - 4.25 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Haohua common peanuts in Junan, Linyi, Shandong is about 3.90 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the quoted price of 308 common peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.00 - 4.10 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Huayu 23 common peanuts in Xingcheng is 4.18 - 4.20 yuan/jin; the purchase price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin production area is 4.05 - 4.15 yuan/jin [3]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 粕类日报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 【粕类日报】市场压力继续体现 盘面大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/4/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3039 | -30 | 天津 | 700 | 730 | -30 | | 0 5 | | 2839 | -71 | 东莞 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3013 | -53 | | 300 | 350 | -50 | | | | | | 日照 | 330 | 430 | -100 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2425 | -27 | 南通 | 1 4 ...