重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 目 录 一.中美和中加关税 二.南美大豆丰产，粕类短期承压 三.粕类短空长多 四.其他农产品整体判断 一 .中美和中加关税 • 中美短期休兵，双方博弈"明转暗" • 中加关税恢复至冲突前 • 关税和贸易政策潜在冲突仍可能存在 中美短期休兵 • 中美达成"休战"协议（2025年10月吉隆坡）：第五轮磋商取 得实质性进展，双方达成贸易"休战"协议，核心成果包括： • 关税调整：美方取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关 税" ，24%的对等关税继续暂停一年；中方相应调整反制措施。 • 出口管制暂停：美方暂停实施其出口管制"50%穿透性规则"一 年；中方暂停实施相关反制措 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily evaluations and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including expectations of price trends, market analyses, and corresponding trading strategies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Alumina (AO2605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Caustic Soda (SH2603): Weak in the near - term [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Eggs (JD2603): Strong in the short - term [3] All - Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index Futures - A - shares continued to rise with heavy volume and then declined, with large trading divergence and high trading volume. The callback range may be limited. For stock index futures, it is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate small - and medium - cap indexes that had smaller previous gains at low prices. Use bull - spread strategies mainly and prevent risks from large fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the central bank's combined measures and the implementation of structural monetary policy interest rate cuts, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the first quarter may decrease. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.85% may be a reasonable pricing, and the certainty of a reserve requirement ratio cut is relatively high. It is expected that capital interest rates will be stable and the short - end will be stronger, and the yield curve may tend to steepen. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and participate in the steepening strategy for curve trading [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. - Silver: Policy may bring forward powder demand, intensify structural supply shortages. Keep a low - position buying idea at lows and lock in gains at highs. - Platinum: Buy at lows near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping and Metals - Steel: Rebar fluctuates in the 3000 - 3200 range; hot - rolled coils fluctuate in the 3150 - 3350 range. - Iron Ore: Supply faces the off - season, and ports continue to accumulate inventory, fluctuating in the 770 - 830 range. - Coking Coal: Prices in Shanxi rise more than they fall, and trading warms up. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilizes. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Silicon Iron: Costs are supportive, and supply - demand improves marginally. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5500. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore outer - market quotes generally rise, and supply - demand improves. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5800. - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories in three locations are accumulating. Hold long positions cautiously with attention on the 99000 - 100000 support. - Alumina: Spot inventory accumulation continues, and the market fluctuates widely. The main contract operates in the 2600 - 2950 range, and sell short at highs. - Aluminum: The market reduces positions and adjusts. Be aware of emotional callback risks in the short - term. The main contract has an over - rising sign in the short - term, so do not chase long. Wait for the callback to layout long positions. - Aluminum Alloy: Inventory continues to decline, and the spot market maintains just - in - time procurement. The main contract operates in the 22000 - 24000 range. Conduct arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03. - Zinc: LME suspends zinc warehousing from South Korea, and zinc prices rise sharply. Pay attention to the 24000 support and go long at lows in the long - term. Hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions. - Tin: Market sentiment declines, and tin prices open lower at night. Be cautious in futures operations. - Nickel: The mine - end supply is expected to tighten again, and the market runs strongly. Conduct range operations with the main contract in the 140000 - 152000 range. - Stainless Steel: The market fluctuates strongly, and raw material cost support strengthens again. Fluctuate strongly with the main contract in the 13800 - 14500 range [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon futures decline and then rebound, still oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the change in poly - silicon production. The main contract operates in the 8000 - 9000 range. - Poly - silicon: Poly - silicon futures mainly fluctuate, with support at 48000. Fluctuate at a high level and wait and see. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment eases, and the market oscillates and adjusts. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and conduct positive calendar spreads. - PX: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. Focus on the 7000 support in the short - term, adopt low - position positive spreads in the medium - term, and conduct long - term low - buying. - PTA: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PTA. Try to go long when PTA is below 5000, and treat it with a low - buying strategy in the medium - term. Conduct TA5 - 9 low - position positive spreads. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA; try to shrink the processing margin on the market when it is high. - Bottle - grade PET: In January, both supply and demand of bottle - grade PET decrease, and the absolute price and processing margin follow the cost side. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the 350 - 500 yuan/ton range. - Ethanol: Seasonal inventory accumulation, weak near - term supply - demand expectations, and the MEG price in January is still under pressure. Pay attention to the 4000 pressure on EG2605; conduct reverse spreads on EG5 - 9 at highs; hold short positions of out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100. - Benzene: Supply - demand expectations improve slightly, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory. Short - sell BR03 at highs and pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the EB - BZ spread. - Styrene: Styrene is short - term strong, but the upside is limited due to high valuation and weak expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to short - sell EB03 at highs and the opportunity to shrink the EB processing margin when it is high [3]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The basis remains, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. Some long positions should be closed as non - standard products turn into standard products. - PP: Maintenance increases, and prices fluctuate strongly. Hold PDH profit expansion positions. - Methanol: Geopolitical disturbances cause prices to fluctuate. Wait and see. - Caustic Soda: The weak supply - demand pattern continues, and spot prices are under pressure. Wait and see. - PVC: Export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and short - term trading focuses are no longer on supply - demand. Market fluctuations increase, and hold short positions and wait. - Urea: Agricultural demand emerges and inventory decreases, pushing up the urea price center. Close long positions taken earlier at the right time and hold short positions and wait. - Soda Ash: Device restart and increased production load lead to a new high in daily output, while demand is still weak. Take a bearish view. - Glass: Market sentiment declines, and the sales - to - production ratio continues to fall. Short - sell in the short - term. - Natural Rubber: Short - term driving forces are limited, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. Wait and see. - Synthetic Rubber: For BR2603, the cost side strengthens, and demand expectations improve. Pay attention to the 11800 - 12000 support for BR2603; conduct arbitrage by going long on BR2603 and short on NR2603 [3]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks driving forces, and soybean meal fluctuates. Fluctuate within a range. - Live Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the market is short - term strong. Fluctuate within a range. - Corn: Supply remains tight, and the market fluctuates at a high level. Run at a high level. - Oils: There are many recent disturbing factors, and short - term fluctuations intensify. Palm oil tests the 8750 support in the short - term. - Sugar: India's sugar - crushing speeds up, and prices are under pressure at highs. Fluctuate weakly within a range and pay attention to the 5300 resistance. - Cotton: The US export sales report provides support, and cotton prices fluctuate and adjust. Fluctuate at a high level. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable or rising, and supply - demand pressure is not large. Fluctuate strongly within a range and pay attention to the previous high of 3100 pressure. - Red Dates: Not provided - Apples: Market sentiment cools down, and futures prices fluctuate at a high level. Market trading is weak, and futures prices decline. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options and short - sell on rebounds [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given documents. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products across different sectors, including financial derivatives, metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, offering trading strategies and future outlooks based on these analyses. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, the nickel market maintains a strong trend. It may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Rumors of supply contraction and production shifts may strengthen the upward price trend in the short term, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [3][109]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, the price is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Silver: Driven by long - position capital, the price shows a strong trend, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market has a post - holiday rally. It is recommended to hold bullish spread portfolios and construct covered call portfolios. The IC contract shows stronger performance [7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Affected by the stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns, the market may experience weak oscillations. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side strategies and consider steepening the yield curve in the medium term [10][12]. Precious Metals - Gold: Although the U.S. economic data shows some improvement, the long - term upward potential of gold remains. It is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300 [13][15]. - Silver: Long - position capital drives the price, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. - Platinum and Palladium: They are expected to show a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) The SCFIS European line index shows a mixed trend. The futures market is expected to experience short - term oscillations [17]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support level of 99,000 - 100,000 yuan [17][21]. - Alumina: The futures price is driven by market sentiment, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [21][23]. - Aluminum: Supported by macro and policy factors, but facing supply - demand and inventory pressures, it is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 yuan [24][26]. - Zinc: Supported by tight domestic zinc ore supply and low inventory, but facing pressure from future imported ore supply. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support level of 23,300 - 23,400 yuan [29][32]. - Tin: Affected by geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, the price is expected to show a strong oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [33][38]. - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - Stainless Steel: Driven by raw material price increases, it is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 yuan [42][45]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by news, policies, and supply - demand factors, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and consider converting long positions to call options [45][48]. - Polysilicon: In a situation of weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by organic silicon production cuts, it is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to production cuts [52][53]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Driven by cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range. The reference range for rebar is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,150 - 3,350 yuan [53][54]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, it is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Coking Coal: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [58][62]. - Coke: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [63][67]. - Ferrosilicon: Driven by macro news, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,300 yuan [68][70]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro news and South African manganese ore supply, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to adopt range - trading strategies, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan [71][73]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Live Hogs: After the holiday, demand declines. The supply in January is expected to be relatively loose, and the price may face pressure [78][79]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, the price increase is limited by selling pressure and policies [81][82]. - Sugar: Supported by holiday demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [83][85]. - Cotton: The U.S. cotton market is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton market may show a bullish trend in the short term, but there is a risk of price correction [85]. - Eggs: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level as the holiday approaches [88]. - Fats and Oils: Affected by China's monetary policy, the market shows a strong rebound. Different types of oils have different outlooks [90][92]. - Red Dates: Driven by market sentiment, the futures price is strong, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [93][94]. - Apples: The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality apples and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [95]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [96][97]. - PTA: Driven by raw materials, the supply - demand situation in January is expected to weaken. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [98][99]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies [100]. - Bottle Chips: The supply and demand are expected to decline in January, and it is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and expect the processing margin to oscillate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [101][103]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to face pressure in January. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and adopt reverse - arbitrage strategies [104][105]. - Pure Benzene: The supply is stable, and the demand shows a slight improvement, but the price is under pressure from high inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan [106]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after January. It is recommended to short - sell above 6,800 yuan and reduce the processing margin on rallies [107][108]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Supply contraction expectations and market sentiment drive the price upward. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [109]. - PP: The supply - demand is weak, and the price shows a slight increase. Attention should be paid to PDH profit expansion [110]. - Methanol: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low levels in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 yuan [111]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [111][112]. - PVC: Driven by the black market, the price shows an upward trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are not improved. It is not recommended to chase the price higher [113][114]. - Urea: Driven by multiple factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term. Attention should be paid to device restart and downstream demand [115][116]. - Soda Ash: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119]. - Glass: Driven by the macro - environment, the price shows a strong trend, but the demand may decline in January. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion [117][120]. - Natural Rubber: Driven by market sentiment and news, the price shows a strong oscillation, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122]. - Synthetic Rubber: The fundamental support is limited, but the market sentiment drives the price upward. It is not recommended to short - sell in the short term [122][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains loose, and downstream slaughterhouses are smoothly purchasing. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏, and the supply pressure from large - scale farms is increasing. The downside space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. Second - round fattening is cautious, and small and medium - sized farmers are not under selling pressure. The futures market is slightly higher than the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than expected, but demand is weak. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic soybean arrivals in March. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, the potential negative impact of inventory growth to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of US soybean oil futures may cause short - term Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate around 4,100 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market is in a weak shock, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan and may briefly fall below. It is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stop falling in the 8,350 - 8,500 yuan range and then strengthen. For soybean oil, the US renewable fuel industry's demand for soybean oil remains resilient, but international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the supply pattern of soybean oil remains unchanged. Some traders' strong selling intentions may drag down the basis price, but the basis price has limited short - term fluctuations due to cost support [5]. Corn Industry - The short - term supply - demand of corn remains tight. In the northeast region, the arrival volume is shrinking, and the price is rising due to restocking and policy support. In the north - central region, the price fluctuates slightly. Traders are cautious about building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises need to replenish stocks. The short - term tight supply - demand pattern and strong northeast spot prices drive the futures price to a new high. Attention should be paid to the corn supply rhythm and inventory changes, which may limit price increases [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are weak. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus this year, which limits price increases. In India, the sugarcane crushing and production are expected to increase significantly this year. With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the price of Yunnan sugar has fallen, and the low - price sugar also affects the processed sugar and beet sugar markets. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a weak shock [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures have fallen to the lowest level in more than a week due to a weak export sales report and overall market weakness. Investors are waiting for the USDA's next export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast. In China, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the purchase price is falling. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side purchasing is weak, but pre - sales relieve the short - term supply pressure, and the basis price of spot sales is firm. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Egg Industry - Based on previous chick replenishment and inventory data, the laying - hen inventory in December is likely to decline, although it remains relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The market trading is light, downstream stocking has not started, and terminal consumption is weak. Traders purchase on demand, and the inventory at each link has slightly increased. Egg futures prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis has increased by 64.58%, the price of "Pig 2605" has decreased by 0.46%, the price of "Pig 2601" has decreased by 0.91%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 11.49%, the main contract position has decreased by 1.34%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased to 85 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions show various changes, such as a 50 - yuan increase in Henan, a 50 - yuan decrease in Shandong, etc. [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume has increased by 0.42%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 0.38%, the weekly piglet price has decreased by 2.86%, the weekly sow price remains unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight has increased by 0.32%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 8.90%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 6.05%, and the monthly reproductive sow inventory has decreased by 1.12% [2]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of "M2605" has decreased by 0.49%, the basis has increased by 6.57%, the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has decreased by 7.5%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 54.4% [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of "RM2605" has decreased by 0.58%, the basis has increased by 44.44%, the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit has increased by 8.81%, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [4]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract has decreased by 0.82%, the basis has increased by 17.09%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract has decreased by 0.32%, the basis has increased by 6.67%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.77% [4]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remains unchanged, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal has decreased by 2.99%, the spot oil - meal ratio has increased by 7.10%, the main - contract oil - meal ratio has decreased by 0.58%, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has increased by 1.52%, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal price difference remains unchanged [4]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.58%, the futures price of "Y2601" has decreased by 0.39%, the basis has decreased by 5.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 111.96% [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong has decreased by 0.92%, the futures price of "P2601" has decreased by 0.73%, the basis has decreased by 160.00%, the import cost has decreased by 1.66%, the import profit has increased by 19.12%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.41% [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.80%, the futures price of "Ol601" has decreased by 0.96%, the basis has increased by 3.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 20 [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil has decreased by 4.17%, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil has increased by 11.76%, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil has decreased by 20.96%, the spot soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 30.00%, the 2601 soybean - palm oil price difference has increased by 6.57%, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 2.10%, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil price difference has decreased by 4.28% [5]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of "Corn 2601" has increased by 1.24%, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price has increased by 0.43%, the basis has decreased by 43.90%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 76.67%, the Shekou bulk - grain price has increased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit remains unchanged, the CIF price has decreased by 0.11%, the import profit has increased by 3.51%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased by 11.52%, the position has increased by 4.76%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 1.51% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of "Corn Starch 2601" has increased by 1.09%, the Changchun spot price remains unchanged, the Weifang spot price remains unchanged, the basis has decreased by 100.00%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 39.29%, the 01 - contract starch - corn price difference remains unchanged, the Shandong starch profit remains unchanged, the position has increased by 0.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts is not available [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Sugar 2601" has decreased by 0.71%, the futures price of "Sugar 2605" has decreased by 0.64%, the ICE raw sugar main - contract price has decreased by 0.07%, the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 5.80%, the main - contract position has decreased by 0.28%, the number of warehouse receipts remains 0, and the effective forecast remains unchanged [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have decreased, the Nanning basis has increased by 3.25%, the Kunming basis has increased by 3.88%, the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) price has decreased by 0.36%, the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) price has decreased by 0.38%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning has increased by 1.15%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning has increased by 5.08% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production has increased by 12.03%, the cumulative national sugar sales have increased by 9.17%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi has increased by 4.59%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi have decreased by 41.20%, the cumulative national sugar sales rate has decreased by 2.60%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi has increased by 4.80%, the US industrial sugar inventory has decreased by 41.20%, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi has increased by 62.90%, the industrial sugar inventory in Sichuan has increased by 26.60%, and the sugar import has increased by 37.50% [10]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of "Cotton 2605" has increased by 0.04%, the futures price of "Cotton 2601" has increased by 0.07%, the ICE US cotton main - contract price has decreased by 0.64%, the 5 - 1 spread has decreased by 16.67%, the main - contract position has decreased by 1.73%, the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 1.93%, and the effective forecast has increased by 19.39% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the CC Index of 3128B cotton has decreased by 0.05%, the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has decreased by 0.12%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 01 contract has decreased by 1.17%, the price difference between 3128B cotton and the 05 contract has decreased by 1.66%, and the price difference between the CC Index of 3128B cotton and the FC Index of M - grade 1% cotton has increased by 0.43% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory has increased by 24.2%, the industrial inventory has increased by 4.9%, the import volume has decreased by 10.0%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 5.5%, the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry has decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 0.9%, the grey - cloth inventory days have decreased by 2.7%, the cotton outbound transportation volume from Xinjiang has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 0.4%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles have increased by 34.0%, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 5.9%, the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products has decreased by 242.1%, the export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 11.6%, and the year - on - year export value of clothing and accessories has decreased by 100.2% [12]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Indicators**: The price of the "Egg 01" contract remains unchanged, the price of the "Egg 02" contract has increased by 0.13%, the egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.29%, the basis has decreased by 10.70%, the 1 - 2 spread has decreased by 3.33%, the egg - chick price remains unchanged, the culled - hen price has decreased by 2.06%, the egg - feed ratio has decreased by 0.43%, and the breeding profit has decreased by 3.84% [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Rebar and coil: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Glass: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [3] - Gold: Fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Pulp: Fluctuating upward [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating downward [6] - Live pigs: Fluctuating downward [8] - Rubber: Fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Weak consolidation [9] Core Views - The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction after the short-term sentiment is released [2][3][6][8] - The end-of-month Politburo meeting is approaching, and the macro is neutral to strong. Pay attention to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The steel industry's expectation of stable growth in the short term has improved market sentiment. Pay attention to whether there will be more policies issued at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial [3] - The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is dominated by the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [3] - The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. Pay attention to the FOMC meeting on July 25th [3] - The fundamentals of pulp show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] - The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of live pigs continues to increase, and high temperatures restrict consumption. It is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - The natural rubber industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9] Grouped Summaries Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply is still loose. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term, but the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged in the long term. Pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The "anti-involution" policy is fermenting, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented. The fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and the supply side [2] - Rebar and coil: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The demand for building materials has declined in the off-season, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is difficult to have an inverse seasonal performance, and it is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. Pay attention to policy issuance [2] - Glass: The inventory of glass factories continues to decline, and the supply remains low. The market sentiment has improved, and the production and sales have improved. However, the demand is difficult to rebound significantly in the long term. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Soda ash: The supply is low, and the market sentiment is good. The downstream inventory is low and there is room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.53%, the Shanghai 50 index fell by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.08%. The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has consolidated. The Treasury bond trend has rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the risk aversion demand is still there. The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. It is expected that gold will fluctuate mainly [3] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is stable, the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - Logs: The port inventory has increased, the cost support has strengthened, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, the supply is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, the arrival of soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight continues to decline, the supply continues to increase, high temperatures restrict consumption, and it is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - Rubber: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, the raw material prices are firm, the industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The supply and demand are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel: Stronger [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Stronger Sideways [4] - Silver: Stronger [4] - Pulp: Sideways Upward [6] - Logs: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways Upward [6] - Live pigs: Sideways Weaker [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Wait - and - See [9] - MEG: Wait - and - See [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including black industry products, financial futures, precious metals, agricultural products, and chemical products. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, cost changes, and geopolitical situations to predict the price trends of these commodities [2][4][6][9]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, with subsequent supply remaining abundant. During the industrial off - season, steel production decreased, but hot metal production rose. Port inventories slightly increased. In the short - term, influenced by policies and sentiment, prices rose strongly, breaking through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Anti - involution policy expectations are fermenting, making coking coal and coke the leading varieties in the black sector. After the second price increase, coke still faces cost pressure, and the market has a stronger expectation of future price increases. With hot metal production remaining high, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and the futures prices are expected to be stronger in the short - term [2]. - **Rolled steel**: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted supply - side sentiment. Although the central urban work conference was below expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry continued to push up market sentiment. During the off - season, construction material demand declined, but steel profits were okay, and inventory pressure was not significant [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand for glass deep - processing orders weakened slightly, but speculative demand was strong. Supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the supply side. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw increases in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows while others had outflows. China's economic data reflects resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bond prices are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Influenced by factors such as the US debt problem, trade tensions, and increased Chinese physical gold demand, the logic for the current gold price increase remains valid, and it is expected to be in a stronger sideways trend [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable. The decrease in raw material prices weakens cost support. The paper industry is in a low - profit state, and demand is in the off - season. Affected by the anti - involution policy, pulp prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipping volume of logs at ports has increased. The supply pressure is not large, and cost support has strengthened. Affected by the anti - involution policy, log prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but inventory increased. The increase in US biodiesel production supports soybean oil demand. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and after the previous increase, prices may correct in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated US soybean production decreased, but the increase in end - of - year inventory exceeded expectations. The good growth of US soybeans and the positive bio - fuel policy support soybean prices. Domestic soybean imports are large, and meal prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing. The average settlement price of slaughter enterprises has slightly increased, but the price is in a downward trend. With sufficient supply and weak consumption, the average price of live pigs may decline in the future [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rainy weather in major rubber - producing areas has affected raw material supply. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has a structural recovery, but is restricted by market demand. Rubber inventories are in a state of adjustment, and rubber prices are expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend [9]. - **PX**: In the short - term, the PX supply - demand remains tight, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost is volatile, the supply has increased, and downstream demand has decreased. The price follows the cost in the short - and medium - term [9]. - **MEG**: The recent arrival volume is small, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The supply pressure has eased, and the price is in a stronger sideways trend in the short - term [9]. - **PR and PF**: Affected by the macro - environment and market sentiment, the polyester bottle - chip and polyester staple - fiber markets are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - **Soda Ash**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - **Meal Products**: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - **Live Pigs**: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - **PTA**: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - **MEG**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - **PR and PF**: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]