Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Rebar and coil: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Glass: Pull back after reaching a high [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Fluctuation [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Fluctuation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [3] - Gold: Fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Pulp: Fluctuating upward [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuating downward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuating downward [6] - Live pigs: Fluctuating downward [8] - Rubber: Fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Weak consolidation [9] Core Views - The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction after the short-term sentiment is released [2][3][6][8] - The end-of-month Politburo meeting is approaching, and the macro is neutral to strong. Pay attention to the implementation of policies and the performance of off-season demand [2] - The steel industry's expectation of stable growth in the short term has improved market sentiment. Pay attention to whether there will be more policies issued at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial [3] - The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors, and the market's risk aversion sentiment is dominated by the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [3] - The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. Pay attention to the FOMC meeting on July 25th [3] - The fundamentals of pulp show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] - The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The supply of live pigs continues to increase, and high temperatures restrict consumption. It is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - The natural rubber industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] - The supply and demand of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9] Grouped Summaries Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply is still loose. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term, but the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged in the long term. Pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2] - Coking coal and coke: The "anti-involution" policy is fermenting, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the third round of price increases has been fully implemented. The fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Pay attention to the trends of molten iron and the supply side [2] - Rebar and coil: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth". The demand for building materials has declined in the off-season, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is difficult to have an inverse seasonal performance, and it is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. Pay attention to policy issuance [2] - Glass: The inventory of glass factories continues to decline, and the supply remains low. The market sentiment has improved, and the production and sales have improved. However, the demand is difficult to rebound significantly in the long term. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] - Soda ash: The supply is low, and the market sentiment is good. The downstream inventory is low and there is room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. Pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.53%, the Shanghai 50 index fell by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.08%. The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has consolidated. The Treasury bond trend has rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the risk aversion demand is still there. The short-term risk aversion demand has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September reaches about 60%. It is expected that gold will fluctuate mainly [3] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price is stable, the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [6] - Logs: The port inventory has increased, the cost support has strengthened, the supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off-season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate mainly [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The inventory of the three major oils continues to rise, the supply is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The supply of soybeans is abundant, and it is expected to fluctuate downward. Pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, the arrival of soybeans, and Sino-US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight continues to decline, the supply continues to increase, high temperatures restrict consumption, and it is expected that the weekly average price will decline [8] - Rubber: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to be tight, the raw material prices are firm, the industry is in a supply-demand adjustment stage, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: The supply and demand are different, and it is recommended to wait and see or expect weak consolidation [9]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel: Stronger [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Stronger Sideways [4] - Silver: Stronger [4] - Pulp: Sideways Upward [6] - Logs: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways Upward [6] - Live pigs: Sideways Weaker [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Wait - and - See [9] - MEG: Wait - and - See [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including black industry products, financial futures, precious metals, agricultural products, and chemical products. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, cost changes, and geopolitical situations to predict the price trends of these commodities [2][4][6][9]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, with subsequent supply remaining abundant. During the industrial off - season, steel production decreased, but hot metal production rose. Port inventories slightly increased. In the short - term, influenced by policies and sentiment, prices rose strongly, breaking through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Anti - involution policy expectations are fermenting, making coking coal and coke the leading varieties in the black sector. After the second price increase, coke still faces cost pressure, and the market has a stronger expectation of future price increases. With hot metal production remaining high, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and the futures prices are expected to be stronger in the short - term [2]. - **Rolled steel**: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted supply - side sentiment. Although the central urban work conference was below expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry continued to push up market sentiment. During the off - season, construction material demand declined, but steel profits were okay, and inventory pressure was not significant [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand for glass deep - processing orders weakened slightly, but speculative demand was strong. Supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the supply side. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw increases in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows while others had outflows. China's economic data reflects resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bond prices are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Influenced by factors such as the US debt problem, trade tensions, and increased Chinese physical gold demand, the logic for the current gold price increase remains valid, and it is expected to be in a stronger sideways trend [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable. The decrease in raw material prices weakens cost support. The paper industry is in a low - profit state, and demand is in the off - season. Affected by the anti - involution policy, pulp prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipping volume of logs at ports has increased. The supply pressure is not large, and cost support has strengthened. Affected by the anti - involution policy, log prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but inventory increased. The increase in US biodiesel production supports soybean oil demand. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and after the previous increase, prices may correct in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated US soybean production decreased, but the increase in end - of - year inventory exceeded expectations. The good growth of US soybeans and the positive bio - fuel policy support soybean prices. Domestic soybean imports are large, and meal prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing. The average settlement price of slaughter enterprises has slightly increased, but the price is in a downward trend. With sufficient supply and weak consumption, the average price of live pigs may decline in the future [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rainy weather in major rubber - producing areas has affected raw material supply. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has a structural recovery, but is restricted by market demand. Rubber inventories are in a state of adjustment, and rubber prices are expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend [9]. - **PX**: In the short - term, the PX supply - demand remains tight, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost is volatile, the supply has increased, and downstream demand has decreased. The price follows the cost in the short - and medium - term [9]. - **MEG**: The recent arrival volume is small, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The supply pressure has eased, and the price is in a stronger sideways trend in the short - term [9]. - **PR and PF**: Affected by the macro - environment and market sentiment, the polyester bottle - chip and polyester staple - fiber markets are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - **Soda Ash**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - **Meal Products**: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - **Live Pigs**: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - **PTA**: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - **MEG**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - **PR and PF**: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-28） | | | | 铁矿：关税扰动反复，以及粗钢限产政策又起，铁矿基本面逐步走弱。随 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 着天气转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望 | | | 铁矿石 | 逢高试空 | 逐步回升。当前钢厂利润尚可，粗钢限产政策再起，铁水见顶预期。钢厂 | | | | | 铁矿库存低位，五一小长假存补库备货预期，以及 4 月底政治局会议大概 | | | | | 率围绕稳地产和消费复苏进行部署，以推动经济稳定增长。反倾销和关税 | | | | | 影响仍将持续，出口依旧面临下滑，粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，激进 | | | | | 的投资者入场的铁矿 09 合约持有。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影响， | | | | | 钢材现货成交不佳，市场信心受挫，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，市场对后续 | | | | | 预期并不乐观。目前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].