【美国原油供需情况及全球原油市场动态受关注】当周美国原油产量基本平稳，环比降0.2万桶/日，至 1343.3万桶/日；贝克休斯石油钻井数减6台，处于历史低位，显示页岩油产量增长动力不足。同时，美 国原油进口量环比增97.5万桶/日，出口量大减196.5万桶/日，净进口量显著增加。 需求方面，美国原油 表需小幅下行，但仍高于历史同期均值。炼厂加工量环比小幅增长，整体需求端表现符合旺季预期。 库存上，6月27日当周美国商业库存累库384.5万桶，因净进口量增加；库欣地区去库149.3万桶，需求地 PADD3库存累库504.2万桶。 成品油供应方面，上周炼厂开工率回升0.2%至94.9%，处于较高水平。美 国炼厂检修量低位，预计旺季开工率维持高位。 成品油消费端，表需环比基本平稳，各类油品走势分 化。出行方面，汽油需求大幅下降，航煤基本平稳；工业油品方面，馏分油和丙烷&丙烯表需均小幅上 升。七月暑期旅游旺季，高速行驶里程和坐飞机人数处于高位。 成品油库存方面，汽油累库418.8万 桶，因需求回落、产量增加；馏分燃料油去库171.0万桶，因需求持续走强。 全球原油市场，EIA数据 显示原油小幅累库，旺季需求符合预期。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]

| 11/11/2 > 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月26日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价小幅回落,SC08合约日内跌1.12%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降583.6万桶,但成品油表需四 周均值仍低于去年同期1.6%。三季度旺季全球石油累库幅度面临收窄,但OPEC+增产压力之下宽松形势难有根本 改观，伊以冲突降温后原油重回宏观与供需面主导，短期震荡偏弱运行，关注美伊核谈进展及中东局势的反复 风险。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期SC开启下跌行情,燃油系期货偏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年6月22日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：高位震荡，或仍有机 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 会挑战85美元/桶 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 观点综述：高位震荡，或仍有机会挑战8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Recent supply and demand conditions for crude oil have improved, and geopolitical risks have sharply increased, leading to a significant price increase. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and future production increases by OPEC+ along with the drag from the trade war on later demand, combined with high geopolitical risks, result in high volatility. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [3][4]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher today, with intraday pressure. The fundamentals remain loose, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper have not changed significantly, maintaining the logic of a tight supply outlook and weakening marginal demand. Currently, copper prices fluctuate within a range, and the market is waiting for new guidance [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate industry chain still has a relatively loose fundamental pattern, with price games between upstream and downstream, low trading enthusiasm, and a bearish market sentiment [10][11]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea remains loose, and the demand provides only a phased rebound. The future direction of futures prices will affect market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and domestic export policies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has been following the upward trend of crude oil recently, but due to the high volatility of crude oil, cautious operation is recommended. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt [13][14]. - **PP**: Although the inventory pressure of PP is still high, considering that China and the US have agreed to implement the results of the economic and trade talks and the significant increase in crude oil prices, it is expected that PP will rebound [15]. - **Plastic**: The inventory pressure of plastic is large, but with the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to rebound in the near future [16][17]. - **PVC**: Before the demand for PVC is substantially improved, the pressure is high. However, due to the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to have a slight rebound in the near future [18]. - **Rebar**: Although the supply of rebar has decreased, the weak demand makes it difficult to quickly digest the inventory, limiting the upward space of prices. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [19][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is expected that the hot - rolled coil main contract will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to factors such as demand recovery, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy adjustments [21][23]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ production growth has fallen short of expectations, and factors such as wildfires in Canada and the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear deal negotiations have alleviated supply pressure [3]. - **Demand**: US non - farm and CPI data are better than expected, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The US has entered the traditional travel season, and crude oil inventories are decreasing. However, the current performance of refined oil demand and inventory data is poor [3]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: The operating rate of coal washing plants has increased this period, but coal plants are still affected by environmental protection factors and have a reduction expectation. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remains normal, but the inventory of coking coal is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists [5]. - **Demand**: The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has declined significantly. After three rounds of price cuts for coke, there is still an expectation of further price cuts. The steel end remains weak, and the demand from steel mills is expected to decline [5]. Copper - **Supply**: The port inventory of refined copper ore has increased this period, and there is a risk of production reduction for smelters. However, copper production is still at a high level [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the operating rate has slowed down, and the demand from the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, the utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and the total inventory has reached a high level [10]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has declined month - on - month, and battery enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement [10][11]. Urea - **Supply**: The supply remains loose, the daily production changes little, and there are no devices with long - term shutdown plans [12]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is expected to last until the end of June, with limited quantity, continuity, and intensity. The raw material price of compound fertilizer plants has risen, but the terminal sales are sluggish [12]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, and the expected production of refineries in June has increased [13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of most downstream industries have declined, and the national shipment volume has decreased [13]. PP - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and high inventory [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation, with high inventory [16][17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined, and new orders are limited [16][17]. PVC - **Supply**: The operating rate is high, and the supply pressure is large [18]. - **Demand**: The demand has not been substantially improved, and the real estate market is still in the process of improvement [18]. Rebar - **Supply**: Blast furnaces have reduced production for five consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of electric furnaces has continued to decline, resulting in a contraction of supply [19][20]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly, and the inventory pressure is large [20]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply**: The production is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in supply [21]. - **Demand**: The demand from the real estate, automobile, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the inventory has increased [21][23]. Market Performance - As of the close on June 18, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Crude oil rose by more than 6%, and many varieties such as p - xylene and PTA rose by more than 3%. In terms of decline, polysilicon fell by nearly 2%, and Shanghai lead fell by nearly 1%. In the stock index futures market, most contracts rose slightly, and in the bond futures market, there were both rises and falls [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:03, funds flowed into varieties such as Shanghai silver 2508 and crude oil 2508, while funds flowed out of contracts such as CSI 1000 2506 and CSI 300 2506 [7][8].

【冠通研究】 原油：大幅上涨 制作日期：2025年6月18日 【策略分析】 轻仓买入原油看涨期权 欧佩克+同意7月份将石油产量提高41.1万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与5月和6月的 增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于7月6日举行下一次会议，决定8月产量政策。据知情人士透 露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过OPEC+产量增长不 及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近35万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈 判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗近期已经将袭击目 标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色列核伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风 险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求 端，美国非农数据、CPI数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季，原油去库，只是目前成品油需求与库存数据表现不佳。 全球贸易战对经济的伤害悲观预期仍未完全扭转，最新的EIA短期能源展望报告将2025年全球石油库 存增幅从0.4万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2507： 5.主力持仓：截至6月10日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多增；截至6月10日，布伦特原油主力持仓多单，多增； 偏多； 6.预期：隔夜市场对于美军介入伊以战争的担忧愈发强烈，据悉已有多架军机进驻中东军事基地，而美国 总统特朗普也表现较为强硬，敦促伊朗无条件投降，短期战争局势仍有提升风险，此外美国API库存大幅去 库亦对油价有支撑，IEA在月度报告中略微调低今明两年原油需求增量，但影响有限，市场焦点仍在战争局 势上，而内盘原油由于供应来源问题表现最强，预计后续高位震荡运行。短线550-560区间运行，长线多单 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价高开低走，因地缘可能缓和施压油价，其中 WTI 7 月合 | | | | 约收盘下跌 1.21 美元至 71.77 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。布伦特 8 月 | | | | 合约收盘下跌 1.00 美元至 73.23 美元/桶，跌幅 1.35%。日内油价 | | | | 高低点振幅约为 8 美元/桶，市场波动急剧放大。SC2507 以 530.4 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 10.5 元/桶，跌幅为 1.94%。美国总统特朗普证 | | | | 实，伊朗已通过中间人发出信号，表示希望缓和冲突。而当前以 | | | | 伊冲突远未走向和平，油价仍面临波动较大的格局。OPEC 月报 | | | | 显示，5 月 OPEC+原油日产量平均为 4123 万桶，比 4 月增加 18 | | | 原油 | 万桶，此前 OPEC+曾宣布增产。OPEC 将 2025 年全球原油需求 | 震荡 | | | 增速预期维持在 130 万桶/日； ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] "狮子的力量"撼动油市，地缘溢价能撑多久？ ——石油石化事件点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列空袭伊朗前，美伊核谈已传出不容乐观的 消息，原油 VIX 直线飙升。据 Macrobond 数据，美伊达成协议的概 率从约 50%骤降至 25%左右。 事件发生后，市场担忧冲突影响原油供应，纷纷买入原油期货避险， 推动盘国际油价大幅飙升。据百度股市通，截至美东时间 6 月 12 日 22:50，美油 2507 合约上涨 11.96%，布油 2508 合约涨超 11%。同 时，黄金作为传统避险资产也出现拉升，COMEX 金 2506 合约上涨 1.7%。 伊朗是 OPEC 第三大产油国。截至 2021 年，伊朗石油探明储量达 2086 亿桶，约占全球总储量的 9%（2020 年数据）。20 ...