【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡上行 制作日期：2025年9月24日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 原油出行旺季基本结束，目前EIA数据显示美国原油超预期大幅去库，但精炼油累库幅度超预期， 缓解此前供应担忧，整体油品库存继续增加，美国炼厂开工率回落1.6个百分点。9月7日，OPEC+八国 决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整，该调整将于 2025年10月起实施。这将加剧四季度的原油压力，IEA最新月报再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将 旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元/桶。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后， 印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度和美国仍在继续谈判。特朗普称普京让人失望，敦促各国停止从俄 罗斯购买石油，但同时又表示需进一步压低油价促使俄罗斯退出俄乌冲突。欧盟委员会通过新一轮 对俄制裁措施草案，其中包括制裁影子油轮，并将原油价格上限设定为每桶47.6美元，但未有对于 俄罗斯买家的二级制裁。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及俄罗斯原油出口情况。由于乌克兰加大 对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度，俄罗斯可能延长汽油出口禁令，还考虑柴油出口禁令的可能性， 加之恢 ...

9月24日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，原油期货主力合约开盘报479.2元/桶，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至发稿，原油主力最高触及485.3元，下方探低478.5元，涨幅达1.87%附近。 目前来看，原油行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于原油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 冠通期货表示，地缘风险未进一步升级，欧盟制裁方案出台，后续消费旺季结束，美国非农就业数据疲 软令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，库尔德地区原油出口有望恢复。原油供需转弱，建议仍以 逢高做空为主。 铜冠金源期货分析称，短期供给过剩逻辑和地缘冲突此起彼伏，油价短期区间博弈加剧，但在长期逻辑 来看，当前油价尚不足以逼迫美国页岩油让出市场份额，沙特需要更低的油价才能实现其战略目标。供 给过剩预期下的长空趋势较为明确，但短期地缘风波扰动不断，基本面逻辑屡屡受挫，短期维持震荡观 点。 申银万国期货指出，伊拉克已初步批准了一项计划，该计划旨在恢复从其半自治的库尔德斯坦地区通过 土耳其输送管道石油的出口业务。可能会每日增加至少23万桶的原油供应量。此前该计划的重启曾因种 种原因而推迟。伊拉克是欧佩克第二大产油国。9月份，乌克 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]

Oil Price Sector - As of September 16, 2025, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian EPSO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $68.47, $64.52, $63.69, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The month-on-month price changes for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+2.81%), WTI crude (+2.90%), Russian EPSO (+3.02%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] - Year-to-date price changes from the beginning of 2025 to September 16, 2025, show Brent crude (-9.82%), WTI crude (-11.77%), Russian EPSO (-11.48%), and Russian Urals (-4.41%) [2] Oil Inventory Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day respectively, with adjustments from August predictions being +17.80, +9.25, and -17.83 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2025 is +104.61 thousand barrels per day, an increase of +3.07 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [2] Oil Supply Sector - For September 2025, the IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply to be 10,582.51, 10,552.82, and 10,460.46 million barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2024 supply being +267.18, +233.92, and +200.88 million barrels per day [3][4] - The 2026 oil supply predictions are 10,787.62, 10,664.34, and 10,618.42 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of +205.12, +111.53, and +157.96 million barrels per day from 2025 [3] Oil Demand Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast global oil demand for 2025 to be 10,387.45, 10,380.99, and 10,513.52 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +73.68, +89.62, and +129.47 million barrels per day [5] - For Q3 2025, the demand predictions are +93.54, +116.34, and +156.83 million barrels per day, with adjustments from August predictions being +40.99, +12.22, and -0.07 million barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) among others [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Strategy analysis: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak season. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise. However, the US refinery operating rate has rebounded slightly by 0.6 percentage points and remains relatively high. On September 7, OPEC+ officially stated that eight countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out gradually. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has further increased the expected surplus of crude oil. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil. As the subsequent consumption peak season is coming to an end, the weak US non-farm payroll data has raised concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium and long term. In the short term, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply. Israel's attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar has increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Today, the main contract of crude oil futures, the 2510 contract, rose 1.15% to 493.6 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 486.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 495.2 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 3,109 to 13,395 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Additionally, EIA has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel. However, EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecast for the global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and increased the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - On the evening of September 10, US EIA data showed that for the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels, and were 2.83% lower than the five-year average; gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 243,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 35,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels. The EIA data shows that crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day in the week of September 5. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 136,000 barrels per day from the all-time high set in early December last year [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.888 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.76% compared with the same period last year, and the increase compared with the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand decreased by 6.68% month-on-month to 8.508 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 8.927 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58% compared with the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 10.38% month-on-month to 3.377 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 3.813 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.01% compared with the same period last year. Both gasoline and diesel demand decreased month-on-month, driving the single-week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 4.22% month-on-month [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term. In the short term, due to the partial release of the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting and other factors, it is recommended to gradually stop profit and exit short positions [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - As the peak travel season ends, EIA data shows that US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and the IEA raises the surplus forecast. Saudi Aramco cuts prices, and there are uncertainties in India's oil procurement. With weakening demand and increasing supply, it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit due to factors like the release of OPEC+ meeting negatives and rising geopolitical risks [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 dropped 2.74% to 475.3 yuan/ton, with a low of 473.7 yuan/ton and a high of 483.5 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 635 to 21,281 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory to increase by about 210 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It raises the 2025 Brent crude average price to $67.80/barrel but predicts it will fall to $59/barrel in Q4 2025. OPEC maintains the 2025 and 2026 global crude demand growth forecasts. IEA raises the 2025 supply and demand growth forecasts. US EIA data shows that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories have exceeded expectations, and overall oil inventories are increasing [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's July production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day, and August production increased by 478,000 barrels per day. US production increased by 72,000 barrels per day in the week of September 5. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude products decreased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the single - week supply of US crude products to decrease [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline on Friday was mainly due to fundamental negatives, such as OPEC+ accelerating production increases and the full inventory build - up of US oil products by EIA, which dampened market bullish sentiment. However, the possibility of short - term trading on this negative is low because the market has some expectations for OPEC+ production increases and the overall inventory pressure of US crude oil and refined products is not large [3][72]. - The main driver to watch next week is the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The market currently expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. If it is just a matter of the expected cut, it may not be bullish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an unexpectedly large rate cut [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, oil prices first rose and then fell. The Israeli attack on Qatar drove up the geopolitical premium, but it did not further develop. OPEC and IEA monthly reports re - emphasized the oversupply pressure, causing oil prices to give back their gains. As of September 11, the active contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.24 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $66.31 per barrel, and the active contract of SC crude oil futures at 489.2 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread was oscillating weakly [9]. - **WTI Fund Net Long Positions**: As of the week ending September 2, WTI fund net long positions were 27,323 lots, a week - on - week increase of 2,702 lots. Brent fund net long positions were 240,729 lots, a week - on - week increase of 38,583 lots. In the refined products market, gasoline net long positions increased by 7,853 lots, diesel by 9,927 lots, and heating oil by 6,329 lots [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: At the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced that eight countries would adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025 from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. The OPEC latest monthly report showed that in August, OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 509,000 barrels per day compared to July, with OPEC production increasing by 478,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia with an increase of 259,000 barrels per day. IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [18]. - **US**: US crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 1,349.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 1,343.5 million barrels per day. However, with limited changes in the number of rigs, the production increase capacity was also limited, and producers' willingness to expand the mining scale was low at low oil prices [29]. - **Risk**: In the Russia - Ukraine situation, although there were signs of a willingness to negotiate peace before, there has been no progress or news regarding leader meetings or the previously mentioned security agreements. The conflict is still far from ending, and follow - up developments should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **US**: US refined product demand declined in the off - season. As of the week ending September 5, gasoline demand was 850,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 609,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 337,700 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 391,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 175,500 barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 258,000 barrels per day. The total US petroleum product demand was 1,978,100 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 871,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 398,000 barrels per day [32]. - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads were at neutral levels, and the valuation of refined product prices relative to crude oil prices was neutral [38]. - **Refinery Data**: Downstream refinery operations increased slightly and will enter the traditional autumn maintenance period. As of the week ending September 5, the US refinery capacity utilization rate was 94.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points; crude oil processing volume was 1,681,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 59,000 barrels per day [41]. - **China**: The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has been greatly boosted recently, but the sentiment in the oil market is relatively flat. It mainly depends on whether the anti - involution policy can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and then boost crude oil demand. In July, crude oil processing volume continued to grow to 63.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 815,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.998 million tons, mainly due to the high - level operation of major refineries. The operation of local refineries has improved but is still at a low level, affected by the adjustment of refined product tax policies and the transformation of domestic energy demand [45]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **US**: Both US crude oil and refined products had inventory builds. As of the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 424.646 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.939 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.503 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 405.224 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514,000 barrels. In the Cushing area, the weekly crude oil inventory was 23.86 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 360,000 barrels. In the refined products market, due to the off - season, all refined product inventories increased. Gasoline inventory was 219.997 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.458 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.555 million barrels; distillate inventory was 120.638 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 4.715 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.385 million barrels; jet fuel inventory was 43.267 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.723 million barrels [55][57][60]. - **OECD**: With the implementation of OPEC+ production increases, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and OECD inventories continued to build up. In August 2025, the global monthly crude oil supply was 10,669,000 barrels per day, demand was 10,457,000 barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 212,000 barrels per day (the previous value was 118,000 barrels per day). The OECD inventory at the end of August was 2.839 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 350 million barrels [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - **Market Review**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].