Group 1 - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest rate in over a year, with an increase of 441,000 barrels per day (approximately 7%) to 6.36 million barrels per day, reflecting its strategic determination to regain market share in the global oil market [1] - The surge in exports coincides with OPEC+'s accelerated crude oil production plans, benefiting consumers despite regional shipping disruptions due to the Israel-Iran conflict [4] - The increase in exports is notable as it occurs during the summer season when domestic demand for oil typically rises, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may release a larger proportion of oil supply after summer [4] Group 2 - In June, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 190 million barrels of crude oil through its Gulf and Red Sea ports, responding to U.S. President Trump's calls for lower oil prices [4] - The current temperature in Riyadh has exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, leading to a significant increase in domestic oil demand for power generation and desalination, yet Saudi Arabia still achieved substantial export growth [5] - OPEC+ has approved a total production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for May to July, which is three times the original plan, with Saudi Arabia allowed to increase production by 167,000 barrels per day each month [6]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ actual production increase is lower than market expectations, and the peak travel season in Europe and the United States is gradually starting, so there is some upward momentum for oil prices in the short term [7] - In the later stage, as tariff negotiations continue to advance, demand expectations are expected to be further raised, but still lower than the level before the tariff war [7] - The balance sheet adjustment is limited, and inventory accumulation is still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $64.8, closing price was $65.38, with a high of $65.43, low of $64.20, a rise of 1.24%, and trading volume of 21.11 million lots; Brent's opening price was $65.85, closing price was $66.34, with a high of $66.39, low of $65.38, a rise of 0.93%, and trading volume of 21.62 million lots; SC's opening price was 478.2 yuan/barrel, closing price was 479.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 482.4 yuan/barrel, low of 474.8 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.27%, and trading volume of 9.24 million lots [6] - OPEC+ 5 member countries' crude oil production increase in May was still lower than the commitment, basically in line with expectations, which promoted the recent rise in oil prices [6] - Saudi Arabia has stated to increase production, but the actual production increase of 8 member countries has not reached the declared level. If the production increase falls short of expectations, it will provide additional support to the supply side [7] - In the 5 - month report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the three major institutions adjusted the demand expectations, with the overall improvement. The IEA significantly raised the demand expectation, while the adjustment range of EIA and OPEC was relatively limited. Due to the supply growth expectations of OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana, the balance sheet adjustment was limited, and inventory accumulation was still expected in the 2nd - 4th quarters [7] 2. Industry News - Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO will set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil sold to Asia in July at a premium of $0.30 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price [8] - The oil production of five OPEC+ member countries participating in the production increase increased by 180,000 barrels per day in May, lower than the promised increase of 310,000 barrels per day [8] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California, USA reached the highest level in 4 years [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of various crude oils, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, due to OPEC+ actual production increase lower than expected, improved macro - expectations, and the start of the travel season in Europe and America, oil prices have upward momentum [6][7] - Saudi's actual production increase of 8 member countries hasn't reached the declared level since April. Future attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production increase. If it falls short of expectations, it will support the supply side [6] - In May, due to the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the three major institutions adjusted demand expectations, with IEA significantly raising and EIA and OPEC adjusting moderately. But due to supply growth expectations from OPEC+ and other countries, the balance sheet adjustment is limited, and the 2nd - 4th quarters still point to inventory accumulation. Continued tariff negotiations may further raise demand expectations but still below pre - tariff - war levels [6] Group 3: Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price | Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Million Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (main contract) | 63.33 | 64.77 | 64.80 | 62.82 | 2.21 | 28.10 | | Brent (main contract) | 65.26 | 66.65 | 66.67 | 64.80 | 2.00 | 33.53 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/Barrel) | 468.8 | 474.3 | 476.8 | 467.7 | 1.37 | 12.06 | [6] Group 4: Industry News - Iran will respond to the US's new nuclear negotiation proposal on Monday [8] - Israel assured the White House not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless Trump says the negotiation fails [8] - Venezuela plans to raise oil prices by 50% [8] - Morgan Stanley: OPEC+ quota increase hasn't led to a surge in production [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][11][18]

Group 1 - Oil prices for both WTI and Brent fell by nearly $1, with a daily decline of 1.00%, primarily due to OPEC+ potentially discussing an increase in oil production exceeding 411,000 barrels per day at their upcoming meeting [2] - OPEC+ members have been increasing production faster than previously planned, with Saudi Arabia and Russia aiming to punish overproducing allies and regain market share [2] - The announcement of a potential increase in production has led to a significant drop in oil prices, with analysts suggesting that the actual impact of any announcement may be limited [2][3] Group 2 - The spread between the expiring Brent July futures contract and the more liquid August contract narrowed, with the latter rising by 30 cents to $63.65, as investors anticipated OPEC+'s production increase decision [3] - A report from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply response and restore balance [3] - The reinstatement of tariffs from the Trump era has contributed to a decline in oil prices by over 10% since April 2, with ongoing trade disputes creating market uncertainty [4]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 市场担忧 OPEC+继续加速增产，油价偏弱。周三 OPEC+部长级会议确立 | | | | 继续增产计划，原油远月压力较大，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下 | | | | 方存支撑，关注 OPEC+周六会议内容。SC【445-460】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 成本端拖累叠加沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气短线偏弱。成本端油价受 | | | | OPEC+扩产走弱；仓单回落，近期仓单连续上涨压力下降；丙烷进口成本 | | | | 下降，PDH 开工率有上升预期。PG【4035-4080】 | | | | 基本面格局偏弱，华北基差为 35（环比-93）。停车比例继续降至 13%， 二季度仍有山东新时代、埃克森、裕龙合计 165 万吨新装置投产计划，供 | | L | 震荡 | 给充沛；农膜需求淡季，短期假期临近，下游阶段性逢低补库。策略上， | | | | 盘面持续下跌后震荡运行，中期仍存继续下跌风险，前期空单可继续持有。 | | | | L【6900-7050】 | | | | 华东拉丝基差 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight news that OPEC+ is considering another increase in production in July hit oil prices hard. Although the G7 is considering lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil, which partially boosted the market, the US has not supported the resolution. Geopolitically, a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to take place today, and the hope of reaching an agreement is slim due to the previous tense relations caused by Israel's planned attack. There is continuous geopolitical support below, and oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, waiting for more news. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel. OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, with a possible 411,000 barrels per day increase in July production, but no final agreement has been reached [3]. - **Basis**: On May 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.75 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.67 per barrel, with a basis of 19.16 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.449 million barrels. US EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.277 million barrels. Cushing region inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels for the week ending May 16, compared with a previous decrease of 1.069 million barrels. As of May 21, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of May 13, the main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil were long positions, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short-term oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran warns that if Israel attacks its nuclear energy facilities, it will hold the US responsible, and any such attack will destroy Iran's efforts to restart relations with Washington. Iran and the US are preparing for the fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday [5]. - G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel, but the US has not supported the resolution [3][5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: No information provided - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid production increases on the supply side. Risk points include the breakdown of unity within OPEC+ and the escalation of war risks. The US threatens to impose sanctions on Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks. There are signs of a certain easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by -0.72%, -0.60%, -1.22%, and -1.55% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by -1.01%, -0.60%, -3.69%, -2.94%, and -3.50% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, and EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new round of production increase plan has pushed crude oil to increase positions and decline again, and polyester has followed. Polyolefins continue to focus on short - selling opportunities [1] - The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic of crude oil always exists, and short - term geopolitical factors focus on the fifth round of US - Iran negotiations on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The news of OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July pushed crude oil to increase positions and form a long negative line in the afternoon. The mid - term supply - demand surplus logic exists, and there is a tendency for a new Iran nuclear agreement. The short - term geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran fifth - round negotiation on Friday. The next time node driven by mid - term supply surplus is the OPEC+ monthly meeting on June 1st [1] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line, and the end of the session accelerated the decline. The short - term may test the previous low. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2] Styrene (EB) - Logic: There is pressure from the decline of crude oil at the cost end. At the supply end, the ethylene plant maintenance is restored, new production capacity is put into operation in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to increase strongly under the current high profit of styrene [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and formed a long negative line. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to yesterday's high [5] PX - Logic: PX profit is at a low level, the device is still in the maintenance period, the downstream PTA start - up rate is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [7][10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [10] PTA - Logic: The supply - end devices of PTA have increased, and at the same time, the polyester load and textile start - up rate at the demand end have also increased. The short - term fundamentals have improved, but after the decline of crude oil at the cost end, the cost logic dominates the market [11][14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. Today, it decreased positions and formed a long negative line with the decline of crude oil. The short - term support refers to the low point on May 13th. Wait for the opportunity to short after breaking the support in the hourly - cycle strategy [14] PP - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved 2% of PP production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the expectation of demand improvement brought by the Sino - US easing, the actual export profit has narrowed, and the short - term export demand is difficult to have obvious increments. In the future, it will still face the supply pressure brought by the restart of the device and the cost pressure brought by the decline of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined without changing the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with the short - term pressure and take - profit referring to yesterday's high [18] Methanol - Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly month - on - month, the traditional demand fell to the year - on - year low, the port inventory remained stable at a low level, but it is facing the arrival pressure of the increase in Iranian shipments in early May, and the port inventory accumulation expectation is strong [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of methanol is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined, continuing the downward path. The strategy is to transfer the 15 - minute - level short positions yesterday to the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss referring to the 2285 line [20] Rubber - Logic: The short - term emotional bullishness of Sino - US easing has basically been digested. Currently, tire enterprises have the highest inventory year - on - year, the start - up rate is at a year - on - year low, downstream tires are not subject to equal tariffs, there is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, involving about 1.2 billion tires. At the supply end, the implementation effect of Thailand's suspension of the opening - cut order is not good, the production areas are gradually opening - cut, and the increment expectation is strong without abnormal weather, still showing a weak supply - demand expectation [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a shock. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Recently, the trading volume at the upper edge of the shock range was insufficient, and it was difficult to break through. The upper pressure still refers to the high point on April 8th. Recently, it is still a narrow - range shock to repair the oversold situation by trading time for space. The hourly - cycle strategy is to short at the upper edge of the range [24] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is the same as that of previous years, and there is an expectation of an increase in the start - up rate after the maintenance season. The terminal real - estate demand is still insufficient, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand continues [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of PVC is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term pressure still focuses on the 5015 line. The hourly - cycle strategy is to look for the opportunity to short when a reversal pattern appears [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The start - up rate of downstream polyester has increased, and the demand has improved. However, after the digestion of the unexpected shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant last week, the actual involved production capacity is about 6%, but the expected shutdown time is short and the impact is limited. In the future, it will face the supply pressure brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of EG is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support below refers to the 4315 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 4455 line [30] Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it increased positions and declined. The short - term support below refers to the 7100 line. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with the take - profit referring to the 7225 high [31][33] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Last week, the fault shutdown of Hengli's ethylene plant involved about 2% of butadiene production capacity, and the actual impact was limited. After the digestion of emotions, it will face the pressure of increased butadiene supply brought by the large - scale release of ethylene plant production capacity in the future. The butadiene storage capacity is low, and the price is likely to fall sharply after inventory accumulation, putting pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost end [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure of synthetic rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term support still focuses on the low point on May 13th. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 15 - minute level, with the stop - loss referring to the 12300 line [35][37]

黄金方面： 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前原油市场利多因素匮乏，原油价格偏弱运行将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情冲高回落且收较长上影线K线，显示上方有一定的压力。指标上看，行情迟迟未能上破62日均线，警惕再度下行风险。 日内关注上方62.68美元一线压力，下方关注60美元一线支撑。 据美联储观察数据显示，美联储六月份维持利率不变的概率是94.7%；7月份维持利率不变的概率是70.3%，9月份维持利率不变的概率为31.3%，累计降息25 个基点的概率为51.6%。美联储年内降息的时间不断推迟，降息的幅度有所下降，短期仍将对金价形成压力。 不过近期地缘方面再起波澜，美国情报部门发现，以色列正在准备袭击伊朗，以总理内塔尼亚胡称将全面控制加沙，对伊朗保留单方面行动权利，倘若冲突 进一步恶化升级，避险情绪的升温短期将为金价提供支撑。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情延续上行且收阳线，显示短期行情较为强势。指标上看，行情上行有效上破20日均线，短期存在进一步走高的机会。日 内关注下方3292美元一线支撑，上方关注3346美元一线压力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 周三（5月21日）公布美国截至5 ...

5月5日早间，国际原油期货大幅低开，WTI原油跌幅一度扩大至5%，布伦特原油开盘跳水。现货黄金向上触及3250美元/盎司关口，随后 小幅调整。 国际原油期货大幅走低 周一，国际原油期货大幅低开。WTI原油跌幅一度扩大至5%，最低至55.30美元/桶。 截至发稿，布伦特原油跌3.79%，报58.97美元/桶。 消息面上，OPEC+成员国同意6月增产41.1万桶/日。 消息人士表示，OPEC+正准备在10月之前快速增加石油产量，如果成员国的减产情况没有改善，可能会在11月之前取消220万桶/日的自愿 减产。在此之前，OPEC+4月份出人意料地以快于预期的速度提高了产量。 据报道，这一策略由沙特主导，目的是惩罚达不到配额的成员国。6月份的新增产计划在周末达成一致，将4月至6月的总增产量推高至近 100万桶/日。预计7月份将再批准增加41.1桶/日的产量，10月份也可能会进一步增产。 据消息人士透露，在此次会议结束后，沙特阿拉伯暗示未来可能会继续采取类似规模的增产措施。 瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo警告称："只要原油出口情况没有显示OPEC+内部的合规情况有所改善，市场就会对这一消息持负面态度。" 高 ...