1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Night trading of precious metals weakened. The ongoing stalemate in the US - Iran conflict, the rebound of crude oil prices, and the decline in market risk appetite put pressure on precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1013.96, yesterday's was 995.98, with a decline of 17.98 and a drop rate of 1.77%. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1011.04, yesterday's was 992.96, with a decline of 18.08 and a drop rate of 1.79%. For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 18111, yesterday's was 17472, with a decline of 639 and a drop rate of 3.53%. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 18174, yesterday's was 17519, with a decline of 655 and a drop rate of 3.60% [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2606 were 170696, and the trading volume was 291301. The positions of沪金2604 were 28789, and the trading volume was 83441. The positions of沪银2606 were 219990, and the trading volume was 775118. The positions of沪银2604 were 37336, and the trading volume was 54014 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2606 and沪金2604 were - 6.21 and - 3.19 respectively. The spot premiums of沪银2606 and沪银2604 were - 180 and - 227 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1014.44, yesterday's was 989.77, with a decline of 24.67 and a drop rate of - 2.43%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 4505.31, yesterday's was 4381.91, with a decline of 123.40 and a drop rate of - 2.74%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 18121, yesterday's was 17292, with a decline of 829 and a drop rate of - 4.57%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 71.18, yesterday's was 68.09, with a decline of 3.09 and a drop rate of - 4.34% [2]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The current value of沪金2606 - 沪金2604 was 3.02, and the previous value was 2.92. The current value of沪银2606 - 沪银2604 was - 47.00, and the previous value was - 63.00. The current value of the gold/silver (spot) ratio was 57.24, and the previous value was 55.98. The current and previous values of the Shanghai Gold/London Gold ratio were both 1.02. The current value of the Shanghai Silver/London Silver ratio was 1.14, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 106,743 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 5795 kg to 370,299 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 39160 ounces to 31,906,473 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 293420 ounces to 328,547,950 ounces [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Market Indicators**: The current value of the US dollar index was 99.90, an increase of 0.26 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index was 6,477.16, a decrease of 114.74 from the previous value. The current yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.42%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous value. The current price of Brent crude oil was 100.10, an increase of 2.04 from the previous value. The current US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9041, an increase of 0.0064 from the previous value [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF was 1,052.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF was 15,409.5 tons, a decrease of 104.2 tons from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 3263 to 159,869, and the net position in silver decreased by 2697 to 21,881 [2]. 3.5 Macro News - **Military Deployment**: The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East to provide more military options for Trump during peace talks with Iran. These troops may include infantry and armored vehicles and will join about 5000 Marines and thousands of paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division already deployed in the region [3]. - **Ship Incident**: A Thai - flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and ran aground near Iran's Qeshm Island [3]. - **Political Statements**: An Iranian source said Trump's remarks about Iran's "big gift" were political posturing. Iran and the countries of the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz have formed a bilateral consensus on the "safe route" [4]. - **Peace Negotiations**: Iran has not asked the US to suspend attacks on its energy facilities and has not made a final response to the 15 - point cease - fire plan. The possibility of a successful cease - fire is still low [5]. - **Strike Delay**: Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, Eastern Time [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] Core Viewpoints - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes [4] - Despite significant pullbacks from previous highs, the long - term bullish view is not altered, though risks during the nomination process and external market corrections should be watched [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 487.40, 485.10, and 484.90 respectively, with price drops of - 24.45, - 24.80, and - 22.60 and percentage drops of - 4.78%, - 4.86%, and - 4.45%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 353.35, 352.50, and 354.00 respectively, with price drops of - 19.50, - 19.55, and - 17.25 and percentage drops of - 5.23%, - 5.25%, and - 4.65% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Platinum futures have an open interest of 13139 for each contract, and trading volumes of 5219, 190, and 80. Palladium futures have an open interest of 4633 for each contract, and trading volumes of 3256, 91, and 43 [1] - **Spot Premium/Discount**: Platinum's spot premium/discounts are - 2.85, - 0.55, and - 0.35. Palladium's are - 2.35, - 1.5, and - 3 [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Shanghai platinum's previous closing price was 484.55, with a drop of - 24.87 and a percentage drop of - 0.049%. London platinum's previous closing price was 1869.00, with a drop of - 81.00 and a percentage drop of - 0.042%. Chinese palladium's previous closing price was 351.00, with a drop of - 10.00 and a percentage drop of - 0.028%. Russian palladium's previous closing price was 3786.60, with an increase of 171.51 and a percentage increase of 0.047% [1] - **Ratios**: The current platinum - to - palladium ratio is 1.38, and the Shanghai platinum - to - London platinum ratio is 1.12 [1] Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX inventory is 573,753.13 ounces, a decrease of 5520.5 ounces from the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts are 312,340.38 ounces, an increase of 3784.0 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's trading volume is 74.00 kilograms, an increase of 6.0 kilograms, and the trading value is 3,600.30 million yuan, an increase of 137.5 million yuan [1] - **Palladium**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Macro - related Data - **Macro - related Indices**: The current US dollar index is 99.92, an increase of 0.28. The S&P 500 index is 6,477.16, a decrease of - 114.74. The US Treasury yield is 4.42, an increase of 0.09. The Nasdaq index is 21,408.08, a decrease of - 521.75. The Dow Jones index is 45,960.11, a decrease of - 469.38. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.91, an increase of 0.01 [1] - **Precious Metal Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 992.96, 995.98, and 998.82 respectively, with decreases of - 18.08, - 17.98, and - 18.08. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 17519.00, 17472.00, and 17464.00 respectively, with decreases of - 655, - 639, and - 621 [1] Macro News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposes the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027, indicating a more conservative stance [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: US - Israeli military strikes on Iran disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Leadership Nomination**: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China calls for promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant surge in demand driven by high oil prices and a weak supply chain, with global lithium battery orders shifting towards China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 27, Ganfeng Lithium's A-shares hit the daily limit, while its Hong Kong shares rose over 12%, with nearly 30 stocks in the lithium battery sector reaching their daily limits [1]. - The total market capitalization of lithium battery concept stocks reached 13.6 trillion yuan [1]. - Other notable stocks such as Tianqi Lithium and BYD also saw substantial gains, contributing to a strong performance across the sector [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Issues - Australia, a major lithium producer, is facing potential supply disruptions due to diesel supply issues, which could lead to a reduction in lithium production [3]. - The mining industry in Australia, which relies heavily on diesel, is already experiencing operational impacts due to limited fuel supplies [3]. Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 6%, and other precious metals like gold and silver also saw significant price increases [4]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to influence the performance of non-ferrous metals positively [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reshaping market expectations regarding the US dollar, with potential implications for global economic stability and commodity prices [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed signs of recovery on March 27, with the non-ferrous metal sector rising, particularly the ETF Huatai (159652), which increased by over 2% [1] - Key stocks within the non-ferrous ETF Huatai saw significant gains, including Yunnan Zhenye and Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, while Ganfeng Lithium rose over 6% [3] - The top ten constituent stocks of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, with varying increases in their stock prices [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has influenced metal prices, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 3.85% and LME copper down by 1.64% due to easing risk aversion following the U.S. decision to delay military action against Iran [5] - However, metal prices reversed in the morning session, with COMEX gold futures rising over 1% and LME copper increasing by 0.53% [6] - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the pressure on non-ferrous metals is gradually easing, with market expectations for U.S. monetary policy being overly pessimistic compared to the Federal Reserve's stance [8] Group 3 - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, supporting long-term gold prices as central banks continue to buy gold, marking 16 consecutive years of net purchases [8] - Industrial metals are expected to perform well in the long term due to a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by global infrastructure investments and low LME copper inventories [9] - The lithium market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with significant growth expected in global electric vehicle sales and energy storage demand [10] Group 4 - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals [10] - The ETF has a high concentration of gold and copper, with 45% combined content, making it a leading choice in its category [12] - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a PE ratio of 32.30, reflecting a 45% decrease compared to five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the Middle East conflict on the Hong Kong stock market and the liquidity environment for 2026, highlighting a tightening liquidity situation compared to 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Liquidity Environment**: The liquidity environment in Hong Kong is expected to tighten in 2026, with a significant increase in the unlocking of shares, projected to reach nearly HKD 2 trillion compared to HKD 800 billion in 2025. This is expected to create supply pressure in the market [1][3]. - **Southbound Capital Flows**: A decrease in southbound capital inflows is anticipated, with estimates suggesting a decline of 20%-40% compared to 2025, which will further exacerbate the liquidity constraints [1][3]. - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: The bottom of the Hang Seng Tech Index is estimated to be around 4,700 points. However, the index is not expected to rebound sharply without significant catalysts and a reduction in existing positions [4][5]. - **Middle East Capital Flows**: The influx of Middle Eastern capital into Hong Kong is overstated. The primary concern for these countries is cash flow rather than investment in emerging market equities. The demand for cash is driven by the need for liquidity due to geopolitical tensions [5][6]. - **Long-term Opportunities**: The conflict may accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi, with Hong Kong positioned as a key offshore center for Renminbi assets. This could lead to increased demand for Renminbi-denominated investments [7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Strategies**: Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a defensive position with low exposure, focusing on local financial services and high-dividend stocks that may benefit from family office investments [1][2][3]. - **Types of Middle Eastern Capital**: Potential Middle Eastern investments in Hong Kong can be categorized into three types: sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and funds previously flowing from China to the Middle East. Each has distinct investment preferences, with sovereign funds favoring strategic investments and family offices leaning towards fixed-income and high-dividend stocks [9][10]. - **Islamic Compliance**: Investments from the Middle East must adhere to Islamic finance principles, which may limit the types of assets available for investment in Hong Kong [11][12]. - **Market Impact**: The influx of Middle Eastern capital is expected to positively impact the Hong Kong stock market by enhancing liquidity and driving demand for financial services, particularly in commercial real estate and wealth management [12][13]. Conclusion - The current geopolitical situation presents both challenges and opportunities for the Hong Kong market. While short-term volatility is expected, the long-term outlook remains positive, particularly regarding the role of Hong Kong in the internationalization of the Renminbi and the potential for increased Middle Eastern investment [13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the precious metals market, particularly gold, and its relationship with oil prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Pressure**: Gold prices have been under pressure due to failed expectations of interest rate cuts and liquidity sell-offs, with London spot gold dropping below $4,100 [1][2]. - **De-dollarization Trend**: The trend of de-dollarization and the logic of global central banks increasing gold reserves remain unchanged. For instance, China's central bank's gold reserves account for less than 10% of total reserves, significantly lower than the global average of about 20% [1][2]. - **Federal Reserve's Dilemma**: The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. The March meeting maintained the forecast for rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, with rate hikes not being a basic assumption [3][4]. - **Gold-Oil Ratio Decline**: The gold-oil ratio fell to 41.45 as of March 25, a 43% decline from the conflict's peak, primarily due to rapid oil price increases and an unusual drop in gold prices [1][3]. - **Long-term Support for Gold Prices**: Despite short-term pressures, the core logic supporting gold prices, such as global central bank reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainties, has not fundamentally changed [2][3][4]. - **Market Volatility and Investment Opportunities**: Current market volatility presents a potential opportunity for long-term investors, while short-term traders are advised to wait for clearer signals [3][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Geopolitical Tensions**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has shifted market pricing logic from a one-time shock to a prolonged conflict, affecting asset prices differently, with oil prices rising while gold and other financial assets remain under pressure [3][4]. - **Weak Dollar Narrative**: The long-term narrative of a "weak dollar" is being reinforced, as the traditional "petrodollar" system faces risks of collapse due to changing U.S. energy dynamics and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [4]. - **A-Share Market Outlook**: The A-share market is expected to benefit from stable domestic fundamentals and the continued entry of long-term funds, such as insurance and public funds, providing support for valuations [4]. - **Focus on Non-ferrous Metals**: The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly precious metals, is highlighted as a sector to watch, with expectations of profit releases in 2026 and significant valuation recovery potential [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - Indian refiners are increasingly using alternative currencies to purchase Russian oil amid rising geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. policy, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Transactions - Transactions involve depositing rupees into special overseas bank accounts of Russian sellers, which are then converted into UAE dirhams or Chinese yuan [1] - Companies are also considering using Singapore dollars and Hong Kong dollars, depending on the acceptance by various banks [2] Group 2: U.S. Policy Impact - Earlier in the month, the U.S. permitted India to increase imports of Russian crude oil, but this exemption will expire on April 11 [1] - Some Russian oil suppliers are pushing for more permanent arrangements to settle transactions in alternative currencies to mitigate the impact of U.S. policy changes [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are oscillating and consolidating. Trump's signal of conflict mitigation, the decline in crude oil prices, and the repair of risk appetite have driven the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of this precious metal adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and the double suppression of liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the continuous process of de - dollarization. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - For gold futures (沪金 2606 and 沪金 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 1013.96 and 1011.040 respectively, with price increases of 34.16 and 33.760, and price increase rates of 3.49% and 3.45%. The trading volumes were 317182 and 139575, and the open interests were 169532 and 40987. - For silver futures (沪银 2606 and 沪银 2604), yesterday's closing prices were 18111 and 18174 respectively, with price increases of 1026 and 979, and price increase rates of 6.01% and 5.69%. The trading volumes were 967928 and 110528, and the open interests were 214737 and 47438 [2] Spot Market - For gold spot (上海黄金 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 1014.44, with a price increase of 36.45 and a price increase rate of 3.73%. For London gold, yesterday's closing price was 4505.31, with a price increase of 33.29 and a price increase rate of 0.74%. - For silver spot (上海白银 T + D), yesterday's closing price was 18121, with a price increase of 955 and a price increase rate of 5.56%. For London silver, yesterday's closing price was 71.18, with a price decrease of 0.10 and a price decrease rate of - 0.14% [2] Inventory - The current inventory of gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 106,743 kilograms, with no change from the previous value. The current inventory of silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 376,094 kilograms, an increase of 10171 kilograms from the previous value. The COMEX silver inventory is 331,451,807 troy ounces, a decrease of 638687 troy ounces from the previous value [2] Related Derivatives - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 1,052.4 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 15,513.7 tons, with no change from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 159,869, a decrease of 3263 from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 21,881, a decrease of 2697 from the previous value [2] Macro Information - There are multiple geopolitical events related to the Iran - US conflict, including statements from Iranian and US officials regarding cease - fire proposals, negotiation possibilities, and military actions. For example, Iran has put forward five conditions for a cease - fire, and the US has made various statements about the end of the war and negotiation plans [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium in the long - term, but in the short - term, the prices are more volatile due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite short - term uncertainties, in the long - run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the platinum and palladium industries support the prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 505.85, 504.20, and 500.55 respectively. The price increases are 26.95, 25.55, and 25.70, with corresponding increases of 5.63%, 5.34%, and 5.41%. The trading volumes are 8038, 258, and 117 respectively, and the open interests are all 13033 [1]. - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 368.55, 368.15, and 368.35 respectively. The price increases are 17.80, 19.85, and 17.80, with corresponding increases of 5.07%, 5.70%, and 5.08%. The trading volumes are 5453, 65, and 72 respectively, and the open interests are all 4522 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 34.26 to 509.42, with an increase of 0.072%. The London platinum price increased by 58.00 to 1950.00, with an increase of 0.031%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 783.00 and 850.00 respectively, with the former increasing by 54.00 (0.074%) and the latter remaining unchanged [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price increased by 13.00 to 361.00, with an increase of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 5.79 to 3769.05, with a decrease of 0.002% [1]. 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 579,273.64 ounces and 308,556.37 ounces respectively. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum trading volume increased by 24.0 kilograms to 68.00 kilograms, and the trading value increased by 1371.30 ten - thousand yuan to 3462.82 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The US dollar index increased by 0.40 to 99.63, the S&P 500 index increased by 35.53 to 6591.90, the US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06 to 4.33, the Nasdaq index increased by 167.94 to 21929.83, the Dow Jones index increased by 305.43 to 46429.49, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.89 [1]. - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 33.76, 34.16, and 34.40 respectively. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 979, 1026, and 1057 respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2]. - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3].