这篇文章来分析2026年货币大洗牌：过去几十年，美元就是全球货币的"老大"，手里有美元，就等于有了底气，但现在不一样了，全球金融圈最明显的变 化，就是大家不再把美元当成唯一的"硬通货"了。 以前美元说了算，现在各国都在找"退路" 要说美元为啥能当这么久"老大"，得回头看二战结束的时候，那时候美国经济最强，军事实力也最厉害，就牵头定了个规则，也就是布雷顿森林体系。 简单说就是，美元和黄金挂钩，你有多少美元，就能换多少黄金，其他国家的钱，再跟着美元走，这样一来，美元就成了全球公认的储备货币、结算货币， 地位一下子就稳了。 后来这个体系崩了，按说美元的地位该受影响才对，但它还是没倒，核心原因就是，美国把美元和石油绑在了一起。 大家都知道，石油是每个国家都离不开的能源，不管是开车、发电，还是工业生产，都得用，美国就规定，全球买卖石油，必须用美元结算。 这一下，不管哪个国家，想要进口石油，就必须先攒够美元，美元的地位自然就稳如泰山，这就是所谓的石油美元体系，也是美元霸权的根本。 可美国自己，慢慢把这条路走歪了，这些年，美国国内经济一不行，就想了个简单粗暴的办法——印钱，拼命印美元，然后把这些钱投到全球市场。 从2020 ...

特朗普的这番操作，本质上就是"拆东墙补西墙"，为了应付眼前的债务危机，不惜牺牲美国的金融信誉。要知道，美联储的独立性是美国金融稳定的基石， 一旦这个基石被破坏，全球投资者对美债的信任将彻底崩塌。更讽刺的是，他自曝家丑的行为，不仅没吓到美联储，反而让国际评级机构进一步看衰美国 ——穆迪早已将美国主权信用评级从AAA下调至AA1，至此三大评级机构对美国的最高评级已悉数失守。 为了"弄死"这个大债主，特朗普不惜自曝家丑，把美联储的内部问题掀了个底朝天。他先是借美联储总部翻新工程为由，公开质疑项目成本超标，拿出所谓 的"证据"指责鲍威尔管理不善，随后又通过白宫渠道向媒体放料，曝光美联储内部的决策分歧和利益输送传闻，甚至翻出当年自己提名鲍威尔的旧账，直 言"选错了人"。这种操作看似荒唐，实则目的性极强——就是要削弱美联储的独立性，逼鲍威尔妥协降息，变相减轻美债压力。 更离谱的是，特朗普一边对内施压美联储，一边对外打关税牌，试图通过加征关税增加财政收入，弥补债务缺口。可他没想到，关税战没打疼别人，反而先 伤了自己：中国企业迅速调整出口方向，美国农产品在本土积压，贸易赤字非但没改善，反而让全球投资者对美债的信心进一步下滑。 ...

19世纪至20世纪初，古典金本位制主导全球货币体系，货币发行与黄金储备刚性挂钩，固定汇率、自由 兑换、黄金自由跨境流动是核心规则。1870-1914年全球贸易年均增速达3.5%，金本位凭借"无主权信用 风险"的特性，成为当时全球经济稳定的核心基石。但1929-1933年大萧条彻底暴露了其无法适配现代经 济的致命缺陷： 近年来，很多国家的央行出于多种考量，纷纷抛售美元，购买黄金作为储备。那么，黄金会成为未来各 国主要货币的锚吗？ 一、金本位的兴衰与黄金货币角色的本质演变 （一）金本位的黄金时代与崩溃根源 一是货币供应刚性约束，无法匹配经济扩张需求。1919-1929年全球黄金矿产产量年均增速仅1.5%，远 低于同期全球工业产出4.5%的年均增速，货币供应弹性缺失直接加剧了全球通货紧缩。根据弗里德曼 《美国货币史》权威数据，1929-1933年美国M2货币供应量累计收缩33%，同期英国批发物价累计下跌 38%，失业率长期维持在10%以上。 二是货币政策空间完全锁死，丧失危机应对能力。金本位制下，央行无法通过降息、扩表等逆周期工具 应对经济衰退，政策操作完全受制于黄金储备变动。1925年英国恢复金本位后，为维持英镑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The volatility of aluminum prices has decreased, and the drag on alumina remains. The alumina market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [5][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Supply-side production cuts in January and February narrowed the market surplus but did not reverse it. The cost and inventory pressure still drag down prices, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global trend of "de-dollarization" continues, and the volatility of aluminum prices is decreasing. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [6] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina futures, expect weak oscillations; for aluminum prices, expect high-level oscillations, and be vigilant of increased price volatility in late March. Consider arbitrage strategies such as buying physical aluminum for delivery and shorting futures, and going long on LME aluminum and shorting Shanghai aluminum. For options, adopt a wait-and-see approach [7] 2. Alumina Surplus Narrowed but Cost and Inventory Drag Remain - **Raw Material End** - **Domestic Ore**: In January 2026, domestic bauxite production was 5.34 million tons. In February, production was expected to decline seasonally, and prices remained stable [10] - **Imported Ore**: In February, the price of imported bauxite continued to fall. Guinea's bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12] - **Alumina Supply**: In February, the alumina supply-side operating rate continued to decline. The shutdown of a production line in the north affected the market, and the overall inventory increased. The import window was mostly closed, and the net export volume was about 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Future production capacity changes include the resumption of overseas production and the delayed commissioning of domestic new capacity [23][27] - **Cost**: In January 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,667 yuan/ton. In February, the cost was expected to continue to decline [33] 3. Aluminum Price Volatility Decreased, Focus on Demand Expectation Fulfillment in Fundamentals - **Triple Attributes Driving Aluminum Prices**: From late January to early February, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly due to financial and capital factors. In the future, the financial and strategic attributes of aluminum will still drive prices, but the influence of the commodity attribute may increase in March [38] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Overseas, new projects are being launched, and some plants are resuming or reducing production. In China, new projects are progressing, and the supply elasticity is low in the medium term. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production decreased in January, and the profit was high, but it is expected to shrink in February. The import loss may suppress the net import volume [45][53][54] - **Post-Festival Aluminum Inventory**: At the end of February, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased significantly, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The overseas market had a different inventory situation, and changes in the US 232 aluminum tariff may have a limited impact on the global aluminum price [58][61] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption** - **New Energy Demand**: In the first quarter, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic components. The demand for aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year-on-year, and the demand for aluminum in the power sector is also growing, with significant potential for energy storage [69][72][81] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate market remains weak, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased year-on-year. However, the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [86][94][98] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: The supply-side has marginal reduction, but the surplus pattern and cost and inventory pressure will still drag down prices. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [102] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The influence of macro and capital sentiment has weakened, and the global supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in March, and the domestic and foreign supply-demand differentiation may widen the price gap [104]

2月26日，中国国家计算机病毒应急处理中心，发布了一份重磅报告。报告直接实锤，2022到2025这三年，美国靠着自己的技术霸权，收割了全球超过300亿 美元的虚拟货币资产。 这其中，单单一个陈志案，美国没收的资产规模就高达150亿美元，占了总收割量的一半。《环球时报》直言，美方表面上打击电诈，实则在放纵电信诈 骗。 他们通过技术霸权攫取的巨额收益，大部分都没有返还给受害人。说白了，美国就是借着"打击犯罪"的名义，干着掠夺他国财产的勾当，这就是间接掠夺。 就说陈志案，大家可能还有印象。陈志是柬埔寨太子集团的创始人，这个集团是亚洲最大的跨国犯罪组织之一，在柬埔寨开了10个电诈园区。 今年1月7日，公安部已经把陈志从柬埔寨押解回国，依法采取了强制措施。可早在去年10月，美国就抢先一步，对陈志发起刑事指控，还高调没收了他手里 12.7万枚比特币，按当时价格算，正好150亿美元。 更讽刺的是，美国没收这些比特币，根本不是为了返还给电诈受害者。国家计算机病毒应急处理中心的报告早就揭露，这些资产，全被美国变成了自己的战 略储备。 除了陈志案，美国还有更过分的操作。比如币安创始人赵长鹏案，2023到2025年，美国对赵长鹏发 ...

从结售汇数据看，企业结汇需求的集中释放也被视为本轮升值的重要推力。国家外汇管理局数据显示， 2025年12月和2026年1月银行代客结售汇顺差分别达999.3亿美元、887.6亿美元，位列历史单月顺差第1 位和第3位。业界普遍认为，这反映出企业结汇需求加速释放。 管涛认为，总体上，人民币对美元汇率延续了自2025年4月中旬以来的"补涨"行情。 2026年春节假期后，人民币汇率迎来"三连涨"，成为全球汇市关注的亮点。2月26日，人民币对美元汇 率再度走强，在岸、离岸人民币均升破6.84，创出2023年4月14日以来新高。 回顾此前走势：2月24日，在岸人民币对美元收盘大涨265点，报6.8849，升破6.89关口，刷新2023年4月 以来新高；2月25日涨势延续，在岸及离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87关口，再次刷新阶段高点。 公开数据显示，自2025年12月底人民币汇率升破7.0整数关口以来，截至2026年2月，中间价累计升值近 300个基点；在岸、离岸人民币升值幅度均超过1%。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，近期人民币升值加速主要有以 下支撑因素：一是1月中旬以来美元指数冲高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent strength in gold prices, with current trading around $5,212, and a notable performance of gold-related ETFs [1] - As of February 26, the SPDR Gold Trust has increased its holdings by 19.15 tons over four consecutive days, bringing the total to 1,097.90 tons [1] - The ZFX Shan Hai Securities report indicates that despite increased market volatility, investor enthusiasm for the metals and mining sector remains strong, with gold and copper being favored commodities for investment this year [1] Group 2 - In the past 20 trading days, the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) has seen net inflows for 17 days, totaling 2.813 billion yuan [1] - The article attributes the strong demand for precious metals to multiple favorable factors, including growth momentum in emerging markets, a macro backdrop of globalization reversal, and an intensifying trend of de-dollarization [1] - Structural factors are providing robust support for gold prices, allowing for quick recovery and establishment of solid support levels after technical pullbacks [1]

Key Points - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Central banks globally have maintained a high level of gold purchases, with a total of 863 tons added in the previous year, indicating strong support for gold prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts in 2026, which would likely weaken the dollar and increase the attractiveness of holding gold [3] Gold's Attributes - Gold is a strategic and scarce resource with multiple attributes, including commodity, currency, safe-haven, and investment characteristics, playing a crucial role in economic security and international trade [4] - Financial attributes significantly influence gold price formation, with market conditions such as monetary policy and inflation impacting its value [6] Market Dynamics - The ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the conflict in Ukraine and potential financial instability from frozen Russian assets, have heightened the appeal of gold as a secure investment [10] - The correlation between gold prices and market volatility, as measured by the VIX index, indicates that gold often spikes during periods of heightened market fear [15] Future Outlook for Gold - The US national debt is projected to exceed $40 trillion, which may negatively impact the dollar's creditworthiness and support gold prices [17] - Interest rates are a critical factor for central banks' gold reserve decisions, with current high real interest rates suggesting significant room for decline, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [18][21] Investment Considerations - Gold is viewed as a "ultimate safe-haven asset," with current upward momentum driven by credit reconstruction and geopolitical uncertainties, making it a strategic asset for portfolio diversification [23] - Despite being at historical highs, gold can still enhance portfolio performance and hedge against inflation, with recommendations for investors to consider gold ETFs for lower costs and better liquidity [24][25]

2月27日，黄金股板块盘中上行，黄金股票ETF（517400）盘中涨超1.6%，美伊谈判反复，贵金属上行 持续。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华西证券指出，资源品方面，贵金属和石油上涨，或与美伊谈判反复的背景相关。由于关键议题仍未达 成协议，美伊局势恶化，伦敦金现货价接连上涨，有色&石油板块的修复趋势有望延续。行业层面，关 注资源品，例如贵金属、工业有色和原油，由商品市场涨价逻辑推动。 展望后市，黄金的长期趋势仍然坚实。在货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战； 加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升，全球"去美元化"的趋 势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。"美联储降息周期+海外不确定性 加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构 ...

新华财经北京2月27日电（记者王小璐）在迎来马年首个交易日股期联动上涨后，贵金属市场涨势逐渐 放缓，步入高位震荡格局。 春节期间，国际贵金属价格走出"先抑后扬"，节后国内市场一度强势跟涨，多重因素博弈下，贵金属这 波行情能走多远？2026年的长期价值又是否依然稳固？ 王露晨指出，贵金属近期的涨势能否持续主要关注中东地缘情况，如果美伊间通过谈判能够达成一致， 则短期内黄金的风险溢价或将暂时消退。以对美股为代表的风险资产偏好的提升是否能够持续也值得观 察，若再次出现负面冲击和抛售潮，流动性问题仍可能在短期内拖累金银走势。 景川则提示，近期贵金属市场面临一定风险。由于前期快速拉升导致过度杠杆和过热，一旦利多因素钝 化、大型机构调整仓位，或将引发回调风险。如果美联储降息节奏不及预期、美元指数阶段性反弹也会 对金银价格形成压制。 尽管短期波动在所难免，但市场对2026年全年的贵金属价格仍保持乐观态度。 马年首个交易日，国内贵金属市场呈现股期双涨的态势。据统计，近三个交易日，A股市场贵金属行业 指数累计上涨6.23%，多只金银个股上涨。 回顾春节假期期间的国际贵金属市场，行情并非一帆风顺，而是呈现典型的"V"字走势。 对 ...