2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%；2025年9月末，我国对外 资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万亿美元……过去这一年，中国外汇市场创下一个个历史新高。 国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、副局长李斌近日在新闻发布会上表示，2025年，面对更加严峻复杂的外部 环境，外汇市场保持平稳运行。下一步，将深化拓展外汇领域改革开放，努力营造既"放得活"又"管得 好"的外汇政策环境，为"十五五"开好局、起好步贡献力量。 一组组数据，勾勒出2025年外汇市场运行情况。 2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流 出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。 外汇储备保持稳定，年末余额为33579亿美元。人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 "过去一年里，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平稳，保持较强韧性和活力。"李斌说。 与此同时，外汇管理服务实体经济质效明显提升。围绕支持外贸稳定发展、深化跨境投资和融资改革、 支持自贸试验区建设3项重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in early trading, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [1] Currency Movements - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) and the British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) both experienced a decline of approximately 0.2% [1] - The Swiss Franc strengthened, leading to a decrease of 0.39% in the USD/CHF exchange rate [1]

Group 1: USD Dynamics - The core variable for the USD remains the Federal Reserve, with recent discussions indicating heightened congressional interest in monetary policy [3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled that there is no urgent need for rate cuts, suggesting that the USD will have policy support in the short term [5] - The market is expected to experience more volatility from adjustments in expectations rather than a trend reversal [5] Group 2: EUR Challenges - The Eurozone is facing significant economic pressures, with Germany's economic growth projected at only 0.2% for 2025, highlighting a lack of momentum [6] - The European Central Bank's medium-term outlook shows inflation returning to target levels, but economic growth is expected to remain between 1.2% and 1.4%, which may not provide strong support for the Euro [6] - The Euro's performance is likely to depend more on relative stability rather than a clear strengthening [6] Group 3: JPY Outlook - The Japanese Yen is in focus due to potential interest rate stability and concerns over its weakness, with the possibility of coordinated intervention being discussed [7] - Internal divisions within the Bank of Japan suggest that interest rate hikes may occur sooner than the market currently anticipates, increasing sensitivity to news [7] - The volatility in the Yen impacts various sectors, including consumer spending and international trade [7] Group 4: Other Currencies and Regional Dynamics - Other regions are also experiencing significant developments, such as the UK delaying employment survey releases, reflecting challenges in data quality and policy judgment [8] - India aims to conclude trade negotiations with the EU by January 26, which could positively affect regional currencies and capital flows [8] - In Asia, Hong Kong's finance chief has stated there will be no reduction in stock stamp duty, while South Korea's finance minister emphasizes the need to halt excessive depreciation of the Won [8] - The overall forex market is characterized by a phase of "policy expectations driving dynamics and differentiated fundamentals" [8]

央视网消息：国务院新闻办公室1月15日举行新闻发布会，国家外汇局有关负责人介绍，2025年，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平 稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 与此同时，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净 流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 李斌表示，2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。2025年9月末，我国对外资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万 亿美元，均为历史新高。外汇储备保持稳定，年末余额为33579亿美元。人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 数据显示，2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%，均为历史新高。 国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长 李斌：全年查处地下钱庄、通过虚假交易非法跨境转移资金等外汇违法违规案件1100多起，有效维护了 外汇交易秩序。 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China reached a record trading volume of 42.6 trillion USD in 2025, up from 34.5 trillion USD in 2022, indicating strong resilience and vitality in the market [1][1][1] - The corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio increased to 30%, marking a historical high, which reflects improved risk management among enterprises [1][1][1] - By the end of September 2025, China's external assets and liabilities reached 11.5 trillion USD and 7.5 trillion USD respectively, with net external assets surpassing 4 trillion USD for the first time [1][1][1] Market Dynamics - The balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market has remained stable over the past year, contributing to overall market stability and resilience [1][1][1] - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange transactions rose to 8.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2022, making it the fastest-growing currency in terms of global trading share [1][1][1] Regulatory Outlook - The authorities plan to enhance monitoring of cross-border capital flows, improve macro-prudential management, and maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market, ensuring that the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China reached a record trading volume of $42.6 trillion in 2025, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both marking historical highs [1][3] - By the end of September 2025, China's external assets and liabilities reached $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion respectively, with net external assets surpassing $4 trillion for the first time [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The trading volume of China's foreign exchange market increased from $34.5 trillion in 2022 to $42.6 trillion in 2025, indicating strong market resilience and vitality [1] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025, a 40% increase over five years, providing a solid foundation for the foreign exchange market [1] Group 2: Policy and Reform - The foreign exchange management department has implemented a series of reforms and measures to enhance the convenience of foreign exchange transactions, significantly supporting the growth of foreign-related economic activities [2] - In 2025, the foreign exchange management department introduced 28 measures focused on stabilizing foreign trade, deepening cross-border investment reforms, and supporting free trade zone construction [2] Group 3: Market Development - The foreign exchange market in China has seen a diversification of participants, including both domestic and foreign institutions, which enhances its ability to absorb external shocks [3] - The proportion of corporate foreign exchange hedging reached 30% in 2025, indicating improved capabilities among foreign-related enterprises to manage exchange rate risks [3] - The trading volume of the renminbi in global foreign exchange markets increased to 8.6%, rising 1.6 percentage points from 2022, making it the fastest-growing currency in terms of global trading share [3]

1月15日，国家外汇管理局（以下简称"国家外汇局"）公布2025年12月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收 付款数据。数据显示，按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行结汇3180亿美元，售汇2179亿美元。2025年1 月份至12月份，银行累计结汇25949亿美元，累计售汇23983亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行代客涉外收入8244亿美元，对外付款7109亿美元。2025年1月份至12 月份，银行代客累计涉外收入79725亿美元，累计对外付款76704亿美元。 对于2025年我国外汇市场运行情况，国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长李斌在1月15日国新办举行的新闻 发布会上表示，过去一年里，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 据李斌介绍，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金 由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。2025年12月份当月 跨境资金净流入和银行结售汇顺差扩大，与季节性等因素有关，从今年1月份以来的情况看，已有所收 敛。2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is expected to maintain resilience and vitality in 2025, with stable operations anticipated in 2026, supported by both internal and external factors [2][3]. External Environment - Global economic growth is projected to be moderate, with major developed economies likely to continue interest rate cuts, which will benefit the stability of China's foreign exchange market [3]. - There are uncertainties in international financial markets and geopolitical areas that could impact the foreign exchange market [3]. Internal Environment - China's economic development quality and efficiency are improving, with the economy reaching new milestones in total output [3]. - The added value of high-tech industries above designated size grew by 9.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, becoming a significant new driving force for economic growth [3]. Trade and Investment - China's total goods trade import and export volume exceeded $6.3 trillion in 2025, with the country being a major trading partner for over 150 nations and regions [4]. - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign direct investment and foreign investment in China reached $3.4 trillion and $3.7 trillion, respectively, ranking among the top globally [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Development - The foreign exchange market in China is deepening, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a diverse range of market participants, including domestic financial institutions and foreign entities [4]. - The foreign exchange risk exposure of domestic entities is decreasing, with the hedging ratio for enterprises increasing by 3 percentage points in 2025 [5]. - The proportion of trade settled in RMB has risen to nearly 30%, enhancing the ability of enterprises and banks to respond to market changes [5]. Currency Mechanism - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is continuously improving, effectively stabilizing supply and demand [5]. - There is a sufficient toolbox for macro-prudential regulation of cross-border capital flows, with accumulated experience in responding to external shocks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing monetary policy measures to support the high-quality development of the real economy, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to loan requirements for commercial properties. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [6][7] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% to stimulate the commercial real estate market [21] Group 2: Support for Innovation and SMEs - The PBOC has increased the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion to 1.2 trillion yuan, including support for high R&D investment private SMEs [11] - An additional 500 billion yuan has been allocated for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises, with a specific quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [15] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Developments - By 2025, the foreign exchange market transaction volume is expected to reach 42.6 trillion USD, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both historical highs [18] - Cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals is projected to total 15 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [24] Group 4: Trade and Investment Outlook - The total import and export volume of goods is expected to exceed 6.3 trillion USD by 2025, with China being a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions [30] - By the end of September 2025, China's outward direct investment and foreign direct investment stock are projected to reach 3.4 trillion and 3 trillion USD, respectively, ranking among the top globally [30]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China reached a record trading volume of $42.6 trillion in 2025, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both marking historical highs [1][3][5] - China's foreign assets and liabilities are projected to hit $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion respectively by the end of September 2025, resulting in a net foreign asset exceeding $4 trillion for the first time [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The foreign exchange market supply and demand remained balanced over the past year, with overall expectations stable, showcasing strong resilience and vitality [3] - The trading volume increased from $34.5 trillion in 2022 to $42.6 trillion in 2025, indicating significant market resilience and vitality [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and Support - China's GDP is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion RMB by 2025, a 40% increase from five years ago, providing a robust foundation for the foreign exchange market [4] - The high-tech industry saw a 9.2% year-on-year increase in value added from January to November 2025, highlighting the substantial growth potential of the Chinese economy [4] Group 3: Policy and Reform - The foreign exchange management department has implemented a series of reforms and measures to facilitate foreign exchange business, significantly enhancing the convenience for various operating entities [4] - In 2025, the department introduced three comprehensive policy packages with a total of 28 measures aimed at supporting stable foreign trade development and deepening cross-border investment and financing reforms [4] Group 4: Market Participation and Risk Management - The foreign exchange market now includes not only domestic financial institutions but also numerous foreign entities, enhancing market depth and resilience against external changes [4] - The proportion of corporate foreign exchange hedging reached 30% in 2025, indicating improved capabilities among foreign-related enterprises to manage international exchange rate fluctuations [5] - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange transactions rose to 8.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2022, marking it as the fastest-growing currency in terms of trading volume [5]