年初，国家发展改革委 财政部关于2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知公布。家电、手机、平板、汽车等产品 都在覆盖范围内。 随后，多家电商平台都开启了补贴专区，想必不少小伙伴在购买符合条件的产品时，都会先看一眼是否能享受补贴。 随着时间来到2025年12月中旬，不少小伙伴都在关心随着今年的结束，"国补"是否还会继续。 近日，大家关心的这部分内容也有了确切消息。 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"摆在明年8项重点任务之首，并作出"优化'两新'政策实施""清理消费领域不合理限制措施"等一系列 部署。 参考第一财经日报的报道，"两新"政指的是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与大家利益直接相关的消费品以旧换新政策备受关 注，被称为"国补"。 也就是说，可以确定明年还会有国补，且具体国补政策将会有所优化，想要在明年进行各种用品购置的小伙伴可以关注一下相关消息。 参考来看，2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，2025年发行3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新。 同时，2025 ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中在部署明年"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"时称，要优化"两 新"政策实施。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益直接相关的消费品以旧换新政策又备受关注，被称为"国补"。此次会议明 确2026年优化"两新"政策实施，意味着明年会继续实施国补政策，但具体政策会有所优化。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期特别国债 资金用于消费品以旧换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础上扩围，比如新增了手机、平板、智能手表手环等3类数码产品和微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电 饭煲等4类家电产品等。 多位接受采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可能在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金投向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消 费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 来源：第一财经 商务部数据显示，今年1~11月，消费品以旧换新 ...

2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工 作，其中在部署明年"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"时称，要优化"两新"政策实施。 所谓"两新"政策，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策。其中与老百姓利益直接相 关的消费品以旧换新政策又备受关注，被称为"国补"。 此次会议明确2026年优化"两 新"政策实施，意味着明年会继续实施国补政策，但具体政策会有所优化。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新， 也就是老百姓口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期 特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础上扩围，比如新增了手机、 平板、智能手表手环等3类数码产品和微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品 等。 商务部数据显示，2025年1月至11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元， 惠及超3.6亿人次。其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机 等数码产品购新补 ...

多位接受第一财经采访的专家表示，2026年"国补"额度可在2025年基础上适度增加，并继续优化资金投 向领域，增加服务消费等，以进一步发挥财政资金带动消费，带动产业转型升级、提振经济。 为了促进消费，中国在2024年发行了1500亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧换新，也就是老百姓 口中的"国补"。由于当年实施效果不错，2025年中国发行3000亿元超长期特别国债资金用于消费品以旧 换新，"国补"额度较2024年增长一倍。 "国补"政策也在不断优化。2025年"国补"领域在2024年基础上扩围，比如新增了手机、平板、智能手表 手环等3类数码产品和微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类家电产品等。 商务部数据显示，今年1~11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。 其中，汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件， 电动自行车以旧换新超1291万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"超1.2亿件。 中央经济工作会议提出明年要优化"两新"政策实施 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中在部署明年"坚 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of a comprehensive incremental policy since September 26, 2024, has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue across major industries and tax categories, indicating an overall improvement in the Chinese economy [1][21] Invoice Sales and Tax Revenue - From Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4%, showing a steady upward trend [3] - In October 2024, tax revenue turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue from February 2025 showing consistent positive growth for eight months [5] Capital Market Performance - The capital market has become more active, with the total market value of A-share companies surpassing 100 trillion yuan in August 2025, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in September [7] - Tax revenue from capital market services increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [7] Corporate Performance and Tax Growth - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year tax revenue increase of 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, indicating a significant stabilizing effect [11] - Major tax categories showed positive growth, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3.2% and corporate income tax rising by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability in certain industries [14] Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "Two New" policies have effectively released market vitality, with significant growth in machinery and equipment purchases, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which saw a 11.8% increase [18] - Retail sales in consumer goods, such as refrigerators and televisions, experienced substantial year-on-year growth of 55.4% and 35.3%, respectively [18]

Core Insights - The implementation of a comprehensive set of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a strengthening economic outlook in China [1][2] Group 1: Tax Revenue and Invoice Sales - The growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady increase, with quarterly growth rates from Q3 last year to Q3 this year recorded at 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February this year, showing month-on-month growth of 2.6% and 6.9% in Q2 and Q3 respectively [2][6] Group 2: Capital Market Tax Revenue - Tax revenue related to the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8% in capital market service tax revenue, and a 110.5% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The total market value of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan in August, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September, with average daily stock trading volumes of 2.3 trillion yuan and 2.4 trillion yuan in August and September respectively [3] Group 3: Improvement in Business Conditions - The manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year tax revenue growth of 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace experiencing a tax revenue increase of 31.5% [4] - In Dalian, the automotive manufacturing sector reported a sales revenue of 68.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, while equipment and raw material purchases grew by 33.6% [5] Group 4: Emerging Industries and Consumption - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors have seen tax revenue growth of 15.3%, while scientific research and technical services have grown by 13.2% [5] - Consumer goods sectors, particularly home appliances, have experienced significant sales growth, with retail sales of refrigerators and televisions increasing by 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [7]

Core Insights - The electricity consumption data from January to August indicates a strong correlation between the implementation of the "Two New" policies and economic vitality, showcasing the effectiveness of these policies in driving high-quality economic development [5][6]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Trends - Total electricity consumption in China reached 68,788 billion kWh from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [1]. - In August, electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector increased by 5.5% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth in 2025, driven by equipment upgrades [2]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors emerged as key growth drivers, with electricity consumption from January to August increasing by 5.3%, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 2.5 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Impact of Equipment Upgrades - The automotive manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with electricity consumption rising by 10.3% from January to August, and the new energy vehicle manufacturing sector experiencing an even higher growth rate of 23.0% [2]. - Traditional industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals also benefited from equipment upgrades, with a combined electricity consumption growth of 4.2% in August, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from July [2]. Group 3: Green Consumption and Renewable Energy - The expansion of the old-for-new consumption policy has stimulated green consumption, with new energy vehicles' production and sales exceeding 11.2 million units from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 34% [3]. - The electricity consumption in the charging and swapping service industry surged by 44.1% from January to August, driven by the rapid adoption of new energy vehicles [3]. - Green electricity trading reached 2,050 billion kWh from January to August, marking a year-on-year growth of 43.3%, indicating a significant rise in demand for clean energy [3]. Group 4: Infrastructure Investment and Energy Security - National grid investment reached 379.6 billion yuan from January to August, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, aimed at supporting the rising electricity demand from both production and consumption [4]. - In August, total electricity consumption was 10,154 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, demonstrating a stable balance between supply and demand amid high temperatures and policy-driven demand [4]. - The State Grid has completed fixed asset investments exceeding 420 billion yuan from January to September, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase, which supports ongoing infrastructure upgrades [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the steel price may fluctuate and strengthen. The fundamentals need time to improve continuously. The construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term. The bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover later, and manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support. However, the steel price lacks strong driving forces and is expected to stay within a certain range [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, coking coal prices increased twice, strengthening market expectations. But due to weak fundamentals, market sentiment returned to rationality, and prices showed a volatile downward trend. The average national price of rebar decreased by 49 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire rods decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in have achieved obvious results, and further policy support is needed to release domestic demand potential [6]. - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months in August [6]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [6]. - In July, the wholesale volume of passenger cars reached a record high, and the production of various household appliances showed different trends [7]. - From August 11 - 17, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly [7]. - In July, the exports of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland decreased, while manganese ore exports increased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 9.48 tons, lower than last week's 10.23 tons. Steel demand in the off - season remained weak, with downstream terminals purchasing on demand and merchants having low restocking willingness, resulting in strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Supply: Construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term [29]. - Demand: The suppression of construction steel demand by high - temperature weather continues, but the bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover. Manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support [29]. - Market: The overall black market closed slightly down. The rebar main contract 10 is expected to stay within the 3050 - 3250 range next week. Attention should be paid to the support around 3100 and the weekly pressure around 3165 [29]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - delivery arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use， wide - straddle consolidation [2][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, strengthening cost support. However, due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand, the futures prices were under pressure. The current market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. The supply is slightly recovering, but still affected by disruptions. The demand is supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent for the time being. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [2][4][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated this week. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, enhancing cost support. But due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand follow - up, the futures prices were under pressure [2][4] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On August 22, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, emphasizing further strengthening of fiscal, tax, and financial policy support for large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies [6] - The August Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the third consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [6] - The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% applicable tax rate [6] - In July, the national passenger car manufacturers' wholesale volume reached 2.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the cumulative wholesale volume was 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [7] - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.037 million tons, a decrease of 178,000 tons compared to the previous period [7] - In July 2025, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in Australia decreased to 4.59693 million tons, lithium spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 11,965 tons, and manganese ore exports increased to 18,160 tons [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to their own underground reasons, while most maintained normal production. Due to weakened downstream demand and a slower procurement pace, coal washing plants and traders became more cautious in procurement, and market trading activity declined [2] - On the demand side, after the seventh round of coke price increase, steel mills had high production enthusiasm due to profit support. The steel mill segment showed a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations". Coke prices were supported by demand resilience, but the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies would limit their upward space [2] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - On the supply side, some coal mines that had stopped or reduced production resumed operations, but there were still new production stoppages and reductions in some areas. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 239 vehicles to 1,263 vehicles [30] - On the demand side, coke production increased slightly, but coking enterprises maintained a demand - based procurement strategy, and upstream coal mines began to accumulate a small amount of inventory [30] - Overall, the supply recovery was limited due to continuous disruptions, and the demand was supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It was recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, due to the release of copper mine supply, the spot index of copper concentrate TC has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The firmness of copper mines still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly. In terms of demand, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption is still relatively flat. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have a certain demand for advance stocking, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and the industry inventory remains in the medium - low range. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.18, a month - on - month increase of 0.0267. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,809 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 111,351 lots, down 9551 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 1,913 lots, up 1702 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, unchanged. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons, down 4663 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,350 tons, up 600 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 24,148 tons, down 2856 tons. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,395 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,385 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 295 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,400 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.79%, up 1.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, up 0.58 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 10.89%, up 0.0091 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, up 0.0267. [2] 3.7行业消息 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has joined the dovish camp, opening the door for a Fed rate cut in September. The market has increased its bets on a US rate cut. Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, listening to a report on the implementation of the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy, and studying opinions on releasing the potential of sports consumption and further promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry. From January to July, the added value of the five major industries mainly involved in the machinery industry increased year - on - year. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3%; the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.8%; the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%; the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.9%; the instrument and meter manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%. The personal consumer loan discount policy will officially start on September 1st. This is the first time that the central government has implemented a discount policy in the field of personal consumer loans. The policy will precisely support the "part used for consumption" in consumer loans. Industry insiders expect that the discount policy will have a great impact on the industry, accelerating the expansion of institutions into various consumption scenarios and better controlling the flow of funds through direct cooperation with merchants. [2]