1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is still a probability of filling the previous gap. The medium - and long - term positive logic for gold remains, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. For options, wait for opportunities to buy call options again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Price Movement**: Since 2025, the price of the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes has increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively. Last week, they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [4][17]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. The PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded, and the decline of core inflation slowed or even reversed. In August, the PCE increased to 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE to 2.91%. In September, the US CPI inflation rose slightly, while the core CPI fell slightly and was lower than expected [4][20]. - **Interest Rates**: From mid - to late October 2023, the US medium - term Treasury bond yields declined until January this year. Since February 2024, they have rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high. Since September, they have fallen below the 2024 low and reached a new low [4][24]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply - demand balance became less loose, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In China, gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and demand also recovered, mainly due to a significant increase in investment demand. The central bank's gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. The domestic gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, mainly due to a significant increase in gold bars and coins. In the first half of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 70,000, reaching the lowest level since October last year. In August 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.3%. The non - farm employment data in August 2025 continued to be significantly weaker than expected [4][33]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Outlook**: Last Friday, the main gold futures contract rebounded after hitting a low, with support at the 30 - day moving average. Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is a chance to fill the previous gap. After the sharp rise in gold due to the Fed rate - cut expectations, the US government shutdown, and tariff hikes since the end of August, on the evening of October 21, the international gold price dropped significantly. The reasons are the decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking triggered by the overbought technical condition. However, the medium - and long - term positive factors for gold still exist [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. Wait for opportunities to buy call options [6]. 3.3 Industry Chain Structure (Periodic and Spot Markets) - Gold prices stopped falling last week. Since 2025, the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes have increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively, and last week they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [15][17]. 3.4 Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to rising gold prices; when it is in a weak balance, the impact on gold prices is small. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand became less loose, and in China, the supply increased slightly year - on - year while demand recovered, mainly due to increased investment demand [4][37]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline to 166.46 tons from 248.57 tons in the first quarter. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously bought gold. After six consecutive months without purchases, it bought gold from November 2024 to September 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024 [41]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023, the gold holdings of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons, and in 2024, they decreased by 28.46 tons. As of November 5, last week, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 1.55 tons, and in 2025, the holdings increased by 254.68 tons [45]. 3.5 Exchange Rate and Dollar Index - The domestic gold market has a slight premium over the international market. The report also presents data on the RMB exchange rate, the dollar index, and the exchange rates between the dollar and other currencies [69]. 3.6 Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - The report provides data on the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [73][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].

研究报告-贵金属专题报告 金融研究院 财富千年不贬值的奥秘 --行情展望 近期相关报告列表： 前三季度，黄金市场呈现"避险拉升—政策缓和 回调—新一轮突破"的阶梯式上行格局。进入四季度 以来，由于美国政府停摆、中美贸易局势、地缘政治 因素等多重因素的博弈之下，波动加大，甚至在 10 月中旬以后一度呈现震荡整理态势。 展望四季度，金价预计将在高位运行，但波动可 能加剧。支撑金价的长期逻辑（去美元化、央行购金） 依然牢固，美联储货币政策转向将是核心驱动变量。 然而，金价已计入较多降息预期，需警惕预期差带来 的调整风险。同时，需密切关注中美关系、地缘政治 等风险事件的演变。白银在工业属性与金银比修复逻 辑下，表现有望强于黄金。 （摘要） 研究员：张天骜 从业资格证：F3002734 投资分析证：Z0012680 助理分析师：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 报告日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 | 1 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1.1 国外 . | | 1.2 国内 . | | 2 美国经济数据 . | | 2.1 GDP 数据 | | 2.2 PMI 指数 b | | 2.3 通胀数据 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a lack of significant bullish factors, leading to a potential continuation of a volatile trading environment until the end of the year [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures indicates that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could have a significant economic impact, causing financial market unease and contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar, which has led to declines in gold and other assets [1] - Jinrui Futures notes that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is siphoning market liquidity, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, although long-term drivers such as sovereign debt issues and geopolitical risks remain intact [2] - UBS suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices may be temporary, maintaining a target price of $4,200 per ounce, with potential for prices to rise to $4,700 if geopolitical risks escalate [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - Guoxin Futures highlights that the divergence in Federal Reserve policies has weakened expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a strong dollar that pressures dollar-denominated precious metals [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken below the critical support level of $4,000 per ounce, with the next support level potentially moving to the $3,900-$3,950 range [2] - State Street's Aakash Doshi anticipates that gold prices will consolidate below the $4,000 resistance level, with a normal consolidation phase expected in the long-term bull market [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite recent outflows from global gold ETFs, there remains unprecedented investor demand for gold, with expectations of new highs in ETF holdings by Q1 2026 [3] - The long-term core drivers for gold and silver prices remain robust, with Jinrui Futures asserting that short-term corrections will not alter the overall upward trend [2] - State Street projects that a price of $5,000 per ounce is a reasonable target, with any pullbacks expected to be relatively minor due to strong fundamental support [3]

【黄金期货最新行情】 美国就业咨询公司"挑战者企业"最新报告显示，截至今年9月，美国企业宣布的裁员人数已接近95万， 创下2020年以来同期最高水平，超过除新冠疫情首年外自2009年以来任何完整年度。政府部门成为裁员 重灾区，今年已有近30万个职位被削减。 【机构观点】 华联期货：全球政治经济不稳，市场风险不断，黄金成最好避险品种，不过避险情绪变化也较快;美国 如果提高关税，这进一步加大经济、就业下行压力，并间接刺激美联储加快降息节奏，这都将对金银带 来利多刺激。不过关税问题目前仅是情绪影响，后续需重点关注双方对关税问题的处理。从长期整体而 言黄金长期利好逻辑仍在，包括美元走弱以及全球政治经济不稳带来的央行购金，黄金的继续上涨的观 点不变 数据显示，11月4日上海黄金现货价格报价916.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（915.58元/克）升水0.42 元/克。 中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行，双方就出口管制领域彼此关切进行深入、富有建设性的沟通。 双方同意继续保持沟通交流，促进中欧产业链供应链稳定与畅通。 美国财长贝森特称，如果中方继续阻止稀土出口，美方可能对华加征关税。外交部对此回应称，中美吉 隆坡经贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to significant investor anxiety, with many experiencing losses after buying at high prices, while others are considering buying at lower levels as prices drop [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations, with Shanghai gold hitting a low of 906 CNY per gram and London gold dropping to around 3962 USD per ounce, significantly down from earlier highs [1]. - The rapid price changes have left many investors in distress, particularly those who bought gold at higher prices, leading to widespread complaints about being "stuck" with their investments [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The core logic behind the changing gold prices is a battle between supply and demand, as well as shifts in risk sentiment among investors [2]. - Factors such as potential global economic recovery or easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a further decline in gold prices, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to differentiate between essential purchases (like wedding jewelry) and investment opportunities, with the latter requiring careful consideration of market conditions [5]. - It is suggested that investors allocate a modest portion of their assets (no more than 10%) to gold, avoiding high-risk strategies like leverage or full investment [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, particularly in China, provides a long-term support for gold prices, despite potential short-term corrections [4]. - Predictions indicate a possible 42% increase in gold prices by 2025, although short-term volatility remains a concern [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 75.90% year-to-date, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 57.96 percentage points [4][8]. - Key drivers for the sector include a favorable supply-demand balance, particularly in energy metals and lithium, which have seen significant price increases [3][8]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to upward adjustments in valuation multiples across the sector, particularly for companies with stable supply-demand dynamics [3][8]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.99 percentage points [4][6]. - Precious metals saw a slight increase of 0.61%, while aluminum prices rose by 4.25%, and energy metals surged by 6.31% [3][8]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with copper up 96.09% and lithium carbonate prices increasing by 8.67% [8][12]. Price Changes and Key Company Valuations - The report details price changes for key metals, with copper prices at $10,888 per ton, reflecting a 24.17% increase year-on-year, while aluminum prices are reported at $21,300 per ton, up 7.68% year-on-year [13][15]. - The report provides valuations for key companies in the sector, indicating that companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold have favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, suggesting potential for growth [15][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that domestic social inventory of copper has increased slightly to 183,000 tons, while overall exchange inventories rose to 573,000 tons [22]. - The operating rates for copper processing facilities show a slight decline, indicating potential supply constraints in the near term [22][33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with operating rates for downstream processing slightly decreasing [33]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with integrated operations and those showing cost improvement potential, such as China Aluminum and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [3][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the renewable energy manufacturing sector, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [3][8].

Core Insights - After a period of decline, international gold prices surged on October 29, with spot gold rising by 1.85% to $4025 per ounce and COMEX futures increasing by 1.49% to $4042 per ounce [1][5]. Gold Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices was characterized as a "big plunge," with prices falling below $3900 on October 28. Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant reductions, with some brands dropping below 1190 yuan per gram [5]. - Analysts attribute the recent decline in gold prices to profit-taking by investors following a substantial previous increase, easing concerns over international trade tensions, and a rise in investor risk appetite [5][6]. - Market analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are more about emotional corrections rather than fundamental shifts, indicating a potential for future price recovery [6]. Future Price Predictions - Representatives at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual meeting forecasted that gold prices could reach $4980 per ounce within the next 12 months, representing an increase of over 25% from current levels [6]. - A significant portion of LBMA representatives (40%) believe that gold will be the best-performing asset in the precious metals sector by 2026 [6]. - Major banks, including Bank of America and HSBC, have set gold price targets at $5000 per ounce for the following year, viewing recent price declines as healthy adjustments and investment opportunities [6]. Central Bank Demand - Over the past three years, global central bank demand for gold has increased by over 1000 tons, although most purchases have been concentrated among a few central banks [7]. - Analysts expect that as more central banks join the trend of gold purchases, this demand will provide long-term support for gold prices [7].