Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved due to the central bank's support and a weak performance of risk assets, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The central bank's actions, including structural interest rate cuts and significant long-term liquidity injections, have stabilized market expectations, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity provided in January, equivalent to a 0.5 basis point reserve requirement cut [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has dipped to around 1.8%, indicating a warm sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap is widening, with ongoing structural differentiation and weak internal momentum, while prices are stabilizing, supporting nominal growth recovery in the first half of the year [2] - Attention is needed on the impact of global policy synchronization on manufacturing cycles and exports, as well as the effects of ongoing declines in the real estate sector on household balance sheets [2] - Seasonal performance indicates that years with a later Spring Festival typically see stronger macro data in January and February, with potential impacts on production and investment data in the first quarter [2] Group 3 - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to release policy signals, with local GDP growth targets for 2026 being adjusted downward, indicating a potential reduction in national economic growth targets [3] - The expectation of a downward adjustment in incremental policy strength may have a positive impact on the bond market, although medium to long-term macro policies remain supportive [3] - The bond market is likely to see increased volatility post-holiday, with institutional investors favoring "holding bonds over the holiday," which may lead to a relatively stable bond market performance [3] Group 4 - Weak domestic demand and loose liquidity are the main supports for the bond market, with improved supply-demand dynamics for local government bonds driving the current bond market recovery [5] - The expectation of stable liquidity and the historical calendar effect of the Spring Festival suggest that institutional willingness to "hold bonds over the holiday" will increase, potentially leading to slight price increases in the bond market [5] - Post-holiday, the bond market may experience differentiation and increased volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, risk asset rebounds, and policy signals [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the equity and precious metal markets have entered an adjustment phase, with a significant decline in market risk appetite. Coupled with the central bank's increased liquidity injection before the holiday to offset the pressure of cash withdrawal, the capital price remains low. In the short - term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly. However, there is no clear main line in the bond market before the holiday, market trading is light, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.14% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 2217 and 25288 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 7777 and 10661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606, and TF2603 - 2606 increased, while others like TS2603 - 2606, T03 - TL03, etc. decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased, and the short positions also increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 Bond Market Conditions - **CTD Bond Net Price**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Conditions - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates increased by 14.50bp, 12.42bp, and 3.57bp respectively. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.70bp, while Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day increased by 7.00bp and 8.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Interest Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 1130 billion, the maturity scale was 750 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 380 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, aiming to plan and promote a number of major projects in key areas [2] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. Policy pre - research and reserve should be done well [3] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months [3] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On February 11 at 09:30, China's January CPI & PPI data will be released - On February 11 at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll data will be released [4]

| | 表 1 CBNRI 首席经济学家调研:2026年1月经济数据预测 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2025 年 12 | 2026年1月 | 2026年1月 | 2026年1月预测 | | | 月公布值 | 预测均值 | 预测中位数 | 区间 | | 信心指数(2026年2月) | 50. 3 | 50. 2 | 50. 5 | 49 ~ 51 | | CPI 同比 (%) | 0. 8 | 0. 4 | 0. 5 | 0.2 ~ 0.9 | | PPI 同比 (%) | -1.9 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.7 ~ -1.2 | | 新增贷款(亿元) | 9100. 0 | 49700. 0 | 49500. 0 | 45000 ~ 57700 | | 社会融资总量(万亿元) | 2. 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 ~ 7.4 | | M2 同比 (%) | 8. 5 | 8. 4 | 8.4 | 8 ~ 8.7 | | 存款基准利率(%,2026年2月底) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 ~ 1.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum pulled back from its high. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market [2] - Domestically, Shanxi's bauxite production has resumed actively, with sufficient supply and falling prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet. Some alumina plants are cautious in purchasing [2] - In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. Last week, the comprehensive aluminum processing operating rate was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, with significant differentiation among sectors [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises rose to 66.0%, but will decline after the completion of pre - holiday stocking. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises rose to 71.4% and will maintain a high level. The operating rate of aluminum cables dropped to 58% and will further decline. The operating rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 36.0%, but the demand for photovoltaic profiles is strong [2] - As of February 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. As the price drops, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement before the Spring Festival [2] Market as a Whole - Short - term market sentiment has eased, the linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, and market trading sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

摘要今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1114.72元/克，较前一交易日上涨8.74元，涨幅 0.79%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1110.87元/克，盘中最高触及1124.93元/克，最低下探至 1106.75元/克。 剧情并未止步于此。为了给高烧不退的市场降降温，全球最大的衍生品交易所——芝商所(CME)，在两 周内三次念起了"紧箍咒"：接连上调黄金和白银期货的保证金要求。这等于直接增加了投机者的"呼吸 成本"，通常会挤走一批玩家，导致市场暂时"缺氧"(流动性下降)，价格更容易坐上"过山车"。 然而，令人惊讶的一幕发生了：金价不仅没有因"缺氧"而萎靡，反而上演了一出漂亮的"韧性秀"，强势 反弹！这出人意料的表演，等于向市场宣告：在当前价位，有一股强大的"铁杆粉丝"(逢低买盘)在默默 守护。能够在交易所"紧箍咒"的考验下屹立不倒，本身就是黄金内在 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 9 日 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/9 | 基于基本面研判 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | | | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 | 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 焦炭 | 原木 | 沥青 | | 研究咨询电话： | 焦煤 | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | 橡胶 | 原油 | 上证50股指期货 | 0531-81678626 | | | | 橡胶 | 多晶硅 | 苹果 | 客服电话： | 红枣 | 尿素 | 甲醇 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | 400-618-6767 | 生猪 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 公司网址： | PVC | 铜 | 液化石油气 | 二债 | www.ztqh.com | | | | | | ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-02-09 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 2 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 1 月金融统计数据报告、1 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 1 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 2 月 10 日 21:30，美国商务部将公布 1 月零售销售。 2 月 11 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 1 月 CPI 和 PPI， 2 月 11 日 21:30，美国劳工部统计局将公布 1 月非农就业报告。 2 月 12 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 2 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数。 2 月 13 日 09:30， ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注节后预期变化 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 ⚫ 供给端：1月钢材生产呈现回升态势，但受限于钢厂整 体盈利面偏弱及淡季需求走弱，进一步增产的动力不 足。进入2月，短流程企业因春节临近而逐步减产，后 续供应增长将主要依赖高炉产能释放。然而，考虑到当 前利润空间依然有限、库存压力尚未缓解，预计整体增 产空间较为有限。 ⚫ 需求端：春节临近，钢材消费边际转弱。其中螺纹钢表 观消费量降至176万吨，工地采购以刚需为主，投机需 求几近停滞；板材表现相对坚挺，热卷表观消费量微降 至310万吨。今年贸易商普遍冬储意愿偏低，对节后需 求复苏持谨慎态度，投机囤 ...

【概要】本周，国内棉市在宏观政策支撑下表现出较强韧性，价格保持窄幅震荡；国际市场受贵金属市 场动荡、美元走强等偏空因素影响，棉价连续走弱，内外棉价差继续增大，创近十年新高。 一、价格回顾 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 二、市场形势展望 宏观市场方面，美国政策走向的模糊性持续扰动市场，美印达成新的关税协定影响未来贸易格局走向。 特朗普提名"鹰派"人士凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，虽一度引发市场对政策收紧的担忧，但鉴于沃什 近期展现出对降息的支持态度，且提名尚待参议院最终批准，市场预期已从单向押注转向复杂的博弈局 面。与此同时，尽管参议院两党已就政府拨款法案达成协议，但由于众议院复会时间及两党在移民政策 上的深刻分歧，联邦政府"停摆"的风险警报仍未完全解除。国际贸易关系方面，美国宣布与印度达成贸 易协议，计划将对印度商品关税从50%大幅降至18%，印度也将逐步取消对美国相关壁垒。若协议最终 实施，不仅将直接有利于美棉对印度的出口，且可能在未来与印度-欧盟自贸协定形成合力，在中长期 系统性增强印度纺织业竞争力，加快全球供应链格局重塑。国内政策环境保持稳健积极，为产业与内需 市场提供清晰支撑。2026年中央一 ...

当前下游加工企业普遍反映终端电子消费订单较为疲弱，采购态度趋于谨慎，高企的锡价对实际需求形 成明显抑制，基本以销定产和制定采购计划。随着一批在途锡锭陆续抵达交割仓库，社会库存正进入阶 段性累库通道。叠加春节假期临近，部分下游客户已开始减少甚至暂停接单，生产节奏逐步放缓。若后 续需求持续低迷，或将导致库存水平进一步攀升，对锡价构成下行压力。 对于后市，宏源期货评论表示，沃什实施降息 缩表担忧有所缓解，但是国内锡精矿加工费环升引导供 需趋松预期，海内外精炼锡库存量环比增加，叠加贝森特表示奉行强势美元政策，或使沪锡价格有所调 整。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡下行，主力合约收跌7.01%，报365140元/吨。锡市整体维持供需双弱格局，锡矿供应仍然偏 紧，下游加工企业当期订单偏低，高价对实际消费抑制明显。锡基本面变化有限，近期主要受宏观情绪 引导，资金参与度高，导致锡价波动较大。 国内冶炼厂开工率保持平稳，云南等供应端主产地整体锡矿供应依旧存在偏紧预期，江西地区受制于废 料短缺，精锡产量提升困难。印尼当地锡锭出口已基本恢复常态化，后期出口或将稳定。缅甸地震暂无 证据显示影响矿区生产，后续关注事态进展，去年11和12月份， ...