Group 1 - The structure of private investment continues to optimize, showing a trend towards practical and innovative sectors, with private investment in infrastructure steadily increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025 [1] - Private investment in the water management industry grew by 34.2%, while the aviation transport sector saw a 25.1% increase [1] - The scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, a significant increase of 800 billion yuan compared to 2024 [1] Group 2 - By the end of November 2025, the total social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% in loans to the real economy [2] - The banking sector reported a 21% year-on-year increase in loans to small and micro enterprises by the end of the third quarter [2] - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented in 2026 to support effective investment [2] Group 3 - Private investment is a crucial support for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting employment, with macro policies aimed at delivering benefits to business entities and stimulating private investment vitality [3] - The "one enterprise, one policy" approach enhances the investment confidence of private enterprises, as demonstrated by a small motorcycle export company that received a loan of 4.8 million yuan within five working days [3][4] - The financial support mechanism for small and micro enterprises has facilitated significant credit disbursement, with 768.19 billion yuan in loans provided by the end of November 2025 [4] Group 4 - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance support for small and micro enterprises, aiming to expand private investment and boost development vitality [5] - The focus will be on improving financial support for key industrial chains and encouraging the development of financing products that meet private investment needs [5] - The collaboration between government, enterprises, and financial institutions is essential for achieving high-quality development in the bio-manufacturing industry [13] Group 5 - Companies like Yunnan Lishi Industrial Group have benefited from government policies that support private economic development, leading to significant investments in their core potato industry [6][7] - The company plans to deepen its supply chain and expand its market presence, supported by favorable policies and financial backing [8] - Changsha Jinlong Cable Technology Co., Ltd. has tripled its investment in 2025 and plans to further increase it in 2026, driven by confidence in market demand and supportive policies [9][11] Group 6 - Shanghai Kasei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of stable R&D investment and long-term financial support for its growth [12] - The company has successfully raised approximately 5.5 billion yuan through its IPO, enabling significant expansion in investment and production scale [12] - The collaboration with financial institutions and government support is crucial for the company's future development and market expansion [12][13] Group 7 - Financial services in regions like Jinjiang are tailored to meet the unique needs of numerous small and micro enterprises, enhancing their operational stability and investment confidence [14][15] - The "factory quick loan" initiative allows companies to leverage their fixed assets for financing, facilitating smoother operations and growth [16] - The focus on providing long-term, stable financial support is essential for helping small enterprises concentrate on quality control and future investments [16]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On December 31, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, major repurchase rates generally rose; the bond market showed a weak and volatile trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, with most individual convertible bonds rising; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Meanwhile, 12 - month manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - China will implement more proactive and effective macro - policies in 2026, focus on the real economy, and prioritize the development of new - quality productive forces [3]. - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point [4]. - The third - stage fee reform of the public fund industry was implemented, reducing the comprehensive fee level by about 20% and saving about 51 billion yuan in investment costs for investors annually [4][5]. - The CSRC launched a pilot program for commercial real - estate investment trust funds, aiming to expand the market scale and improve the system [5]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange solicited public opinions on the "Listing Rules for Privately Offered Corporate Bonds on the Beijing Stock Exchange" [6]. - In November 2025, the bond market issued 7.01793 trillion yuan of various bonds, and the bond market custody balance reached 196.3 trillion yuan by the end of November [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an early - batch list of "two major" projects and central budgetary investment of about 295 billion yuan for 2026 [8][9]. - **International News**: - In the week of December 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 199,000, and the number of continued claims also decreased, indicating the resilience of the labor market [10]. - **Commodities**: - On December 31, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI February crude futures down 0.91% and Brent February crude futures down 0.78%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.31%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 6.71% [11]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Open - market Operations**: - On December 31, the central bank conducted 528.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 502.8 billion yuan [13]. - **Funding Rates**: - Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, major repurchase rates generally rose. DR001 rose 9.30bp to 1.333%, and DR007 rose 29.47bp to 1.982% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: - On December 31, due to better - than - expected PMI data, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 fell 1.00bp to 1.8500%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 fell 0.10bp to 1.9480% [17]. - **Bond Tendering**: - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [19]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: - On December 31, 4 industrial bonds had a transaction price deviation of over 10%. "23 Chanrong 09" fell over 15%, while "22 Vanke 04", "22 Vanke 06", and "22 Vanke 02" rose over 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [20]. - **Credit - bond Events**: - Vanke will review proposals such as adjusting the repayment arrangement of part of the bond principal and interest and adding a grace period for "21 Vanke 02" [21]. - China Aoyuan's domestic debt restructuring plan is basically completed and is seeking opinions [21]. - Fangyuan Real Estate passed two proposals on adjusting the repayment arrangement for "20 Fangyuan 01" [21]. - China Fortune Land Development completed a trust debt - for - asset transaction of 22.348 billion yuan, and a remaining 1.653 billion yuan transaction is in progress [21]. - Country Garden's overseas debt restructuring took effect on December 30 [21]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - On December 31, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.58% and 1.23% respectively. The turnover was 2.07 trillion yuan [22]. - The main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.02% and 0.08% respectively, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.09%. The turnover was 81.89 billion yuan [22]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: - On January 1, the convertible bond issuances of Shang Sheng Electronics and Ai Wei Electronics were approved by the CSRC. On December 31, Yingte Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Huarui, Luwei, and Chaoda Convertible Bonds were about to trigger early - redemption conditions [29]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: - On December 31, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year yield rose 2bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.18%. The 2/10 - year yield spread widened 2bp to 71bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed 2bp to 111bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate rose 1bp to 2.25% [26][27][28]. - **European Bond Market**: - On December 31, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Germany's yield rose 1bp to 2.86%, while France and Italy's remained unchanged. Spain and the UK's yields fell 1bp [30]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: - As of the close on December 31, the prices of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds showed significant fluctuations. The top - gainers included SMIC with a 16.9% increase, and the top - losers included Pinduoduo with a 3.4% decrease [32].

【内容摘要】12月31日，受跨元旦假期影响，主要回购利率普遍走高；债市整体偏弱震荡；转债市场主要指数涨跌不一，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收 益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家发改委：2026年提前批"两重"项目清单和中央预算内投资已下达，共计约2950亿元】12月31日，国家发改委召开新闻发布会。会上，国家发改委政策 研究室副主任李超表示，近日，发改委组织下达2026年提前批"两重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划，共计约2950亿元，将加快各类资金拨付和使用节 奏。 【习近平：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长】据新华社，中国人民政治协商会议全国委员会12月31日在全国政协 礼堂举行新年茶话会。国家主席习近平发表重要讲话。习近平指出，2026年是"十五五"开局之年。我们要完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格 局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，努 力实现"十五五"良好开局。 【习近平：坚持把发展经济的着力点放在 ...

制造业结构方面呈现积极变化，四大重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，较上 月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升 0.6个和1个百分点，双双升至扩张区间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平 继续回升。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.8%，较上月上升1.5个百分点，在连续2个月运行在50%以下后 回到扩张区间，其中生产指数和新订单指数都较上月上升超过2个百分点至52%以上。中型企业PMI为 49.8%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，创年内次高点，其中生产指数较上月上升1.2个百分点至接近52%的 水平，新订单指数较上月上升2.1个百分点至接近50%的水平，显示中型企业需求持稳运行，生产加快 扩张。 经济日报记者 熊 丽 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业采 购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升 0.9个、0.7个和1个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，三大指数 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April 2025[8] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The production index and new orders index contributed 0.43 and 0.48 percentage points to the PMI, respectively, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing activity[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from November, marking its return to the expansion zone for the first time since the second half of the year[14] - The production index also increased to 51.7%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point rise, driven by stronger demand and improved business sentiment[14] - The raw material purchase price index decreased to 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, alleviating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index slightly increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from November, with significant variation across industries[20] - The construction sector saw a notable rise, with the business activity index reaching 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and upcoming holidays[23] Policy Outlook and Risks - Macro policies are expected to be more proactive in 2026, with early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand still needs to be stimulated to support broader economic recovery[28]

Economic Overview - In November 2025, the national industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.9%[18] Henan Province Economic Performance - In November 2025, Henan's industrial added value grew by 8.0% year-on-year, outperforming the national average by 3.2 percentage points[25] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 269.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, exceeding the national average by 3.1 percentage points[27] - Fixed asset investment in Henan increased by 4.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the national average[29] Sector-Specific Insights - In November, the manufacturing sector in Henan saw significant growth, particularly in electronic equipment manufacturing, which grew by 24.9%[26] - The real estate sector in Henan continued to face challenges, with a decline in development investment by 8.5% year-on-year[29] - The retail sector showed strong performance in basic necessities, with food and beverage sales increasing by 19.0% and 13.8% respectively[27] Risks and Challenges - The central economic work conference highlighted the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, indicating potential risks in economic recovery[24] - Ongoing trade frictions and slower-than-expected policy implementation could further impact economic recovery[34]

Group 1 - The core theme of the recent investor education course is the analysis of macroeconomic policy dynamics and economic conditions, presented by Yuan Ye, Chief Macro Analyst at China Postal Securities [3] - The course consists of four main parts: regulatory updates, international economic analysis, domestic macroeconomic outlook, and macro policy analysis [3] - The first part focuses on recent important macro policies and aims to convey the philosophy and content of regulatory policies to investors [3] Group 2 - The second part discusses the long-term geopolitical competition among major global powers, highlighting the risks of protectionist policies and the increasing uncertainty and instability in the global landscape [3] - The third part emphasizes the expected successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on domestic economic development, consumer trends, exports, and the construction of a modern industrial system [3] - The fourth part looks ahead to more proactive macro policies, with a focus on the direction and intensity of monetary and fiscal policies for the coming year [3] Group 3 - The initiative aims to communicate recent regulatory dynamics and analyze domestic and international macroeconomic developments, fostering a rational understanding of the long-term positive trends in China's economic fundamentals [4] - The "Investor Education Navigation" online course series is a public welfare initiative that has been held for five years, designed to help investors understand rules, identify risks, and cultivate a rational, value-oriented, and long-term investment mindset [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking the first time since April that it has entered the expansion zone [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, reflecting an overall expansion in business activities compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In December, 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reported an increase in PMI, indicating improved production and operational conditions [2] - The Production Index and New Orders Index were recorded at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases from the previous month [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, indicating a positive growth trend in this sector [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index showed a recovery, with the New Orders Index rising to 47.3%, the highest level this year [4] - The Services Business Activity Index was at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in the service sector, although still below the expansion threshold [4] - The Construction Business Activity Index surged to 52.8%, reflecting a significant improvement in the construction sector's economic conditions [5]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 供需进入去化阶段 价格高位震荡为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 石现货价格强势支撑盘面，叠加钢厂正式进入补库周期，补库需求或支撑价格保持相对强势。 供应方面：主流矿山发运年底阶段性冲量，本期周度发运量维持环比回升，但随着冲量任务 结束外矿发运将进入季节性发运淡季，国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端支撑步入偏强 阶段。 需求方面：国内需求企稳小幅回升，钢厂盈利率在碳元素价格下跌后有所回升，本期高炉检 修和复产互现，河北、山西部分检修高炉月底复产，整体看，国内钢厂需求短期存在回升趋势， 且节前补库周期即将开始，预计补库需求将持续释放。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存环比回升，但钢厂库存仍处于近年同期最低水平，高后期关注钢 厂后期美元货补库何时全面启动；港口库存持续累积，主要原因到港量持续保持相对高位，预期 是 12 月份港口库存仍趋于累积。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...