Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies in sustaining economic growth and addressing social welfare needs, highlighting the need for both existing and new fiscal tools to enhance policy effectiveness [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first three quarters of this year, the national general public budget revenue reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while general public budget expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in fiscal revenue is a positive indicator of overall economic improvement, with tax revenue showing consistent growth due to factors such as the performance of emerging industries and increased industrial profits [1][2]. Focus on Social Welfare - Fiscal spending has been directed towards key areas, particularly in social welfare, with significant increases in expenditures for social security, education, and health care, all reaching their highest growth rates in three years [2]. - Policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending, such as subsidies for child-rearing and free preschool education, are being progressively implemented to support the population [2]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the positive trends, there is a noted slowdown in the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure, necessitating continued efforts to ensure adequate spending [3]. - The reliance on fiscal revenue growth and government bond issuance for maintaining spending levels poses risks, especially if external uncertainties impact economic performance [3][4]. - The government plans to introduce new financial tools and policies to support local debt repayment and enhance effective investment, particularly in infrastructure, to sustain economic momentum [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, leveraging both existing and new financial tools [1][3][4] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, amounting to 16.39 trillion yuan, while fiscal expenditure rose by 3.1% to 20.81 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [1] - The overall economic performance is improving, with GDP growth recorded at 5.2% year-on-year, driven by strong manufacturing investment, particularly in high-tech sectors [1][2] Group 2 - Fiscal spending remains robust, particularly in social welfare, education, and healthcare, with growth rates in these areas exceeding the average spending growth, marking the highest levels in three years [2] - The government is focusing on policies that enhance consumer spending and improve living standards, such as subsidies for child-rearing and free preschool education [2] - There is a noted slowdown in the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure, necessitating continued efforts to ensure adequate funding for essential services [3] Group 3 - The government plans to introduce new financial tools and policies to address potential risks, including hidden debts and overdue payments to businesses, while ensuring the "three guarantees" for local governments [4] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure investment in the upcoming quarters [4] - Coordination between fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies is crucial to sustain the positive economic momentum [4]

今年以来，国民经济顶住压力，保持稳中有进发展态势。从前10个月数据看，全年经济发展预期目标能 否顺利实现？国家统计局表示，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，支撑经济向好发展的有利 因素较多。 就业物价总体稳定 NE 10月份,全国城镇调查失业率继续 居民消费价格同比日 降转 涨,出现积 极变化。 1至10月份! 我国货物进出[ 3.6%, 10月末外汇储备稳定在 190 | IEVE ITALIA CHILA SEPPED 364 CMACOM GAA @ L EVERGRCON EVERGB F CHALCOM - VCBM TSENS NAME EVERGREEN RECH TIP tront the 前10个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4.3%,快于上年全年。 宏观政策接续最效 近期相关部门推出 3月10日 的 5新型 盘活使用地方债结存限 政策性金融工具 额,用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有 效投资。同时,出台措施进一步激发民间 投资 people.cr 需求潜能影影解放 外贸韧性持续 前10个月我国对东盟、欧盟 带一路"国家进出口分 9.1%、4.9%和5 于全部货物进出口总额增速。 新魔与 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview and key events to watch from November 17 - 21, 2025, including economic data releases from multiple countries and regions and their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On November 19 at 18:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI - On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting - On November 20 at 09:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 loan prime rate (LPR), expected to be the same as the previous value - On November 20 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Federal Reserve officials for their impacts on the futures market [2] This Week's Hot - Spot Preview November 17 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Japan's Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is - 0.6% (previous value 0.5%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annualized GDP quarterly rate is - 2.5% (previous value 2.2%) [3] - The central bank carried out an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. With 300 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase maturing in November, this means an additional 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase was continued. It is bullish for stock index futures and commodity futures and relatively bullish for Treasury bond futures [4] - The National Energy Administration will announce China's total electricity consumption in October. The previous value was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5] November 19 - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI. The expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the harmonized CPI is 2.1% (same as the preliminary value in October, 2.2% in September's final value), and the expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the core harmonized CPI is 2.4% (same as the preliminary value in October and September's final value) [8] - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 14. The previous value was an increase of 6.413 million barrels. A continued increase may suppress the prices of crude oil and related commodity futures [9] November 20 - The People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 LPR. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both the same as the previous values [10] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting, which will provide details of discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic prospects and clues for future policy paths [11] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report. The expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is 50,000 (previous value 22,000), and the expected unemployment rate is 4.3% (same as the previous value). Higher new non - farm employment and a stable unemployment rate may reduce the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting and suppress the rise of commodity futures and stock index futures [12] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the October existing home sales. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total of existing home sales is 4.06 million households, the same as the previous value [13] - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November consumer confidence index. The expected value is - 14.5 (previous value - 14.2) [14] November 21 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of Germany's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 49.8 (previous value 49.6) [15] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 50.2 (previous value 50) [16]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in October 2023 continued to show a stable growth trend, with steady production demand, stable employment and prices, and ongoing transformation and upgrading [1] Economic Operation Overview - Production supply continued to grow, with agricultural production performing well and industrial production remaining stable, as evidenced by a 4.9% year-on-year increase in industrial added value in October [2] - Market sales expanded, with a 2.9% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods in October, driven by consumption-boosting initiatives and holiday economic activities [2] Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate was 5.1% in October, marking a decline for two consecutive months [3] - Positive changes in prices were noted, with consumer prices turning from decline to increase and a narrowing decline in producer prices; specific industries like lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment saw price increases of 0.2% and 0.6% respectively [3] Investment Structure and Potential - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with a 1.1% decrease in exports; however, investment in manufacturing grew by 2.7% during the same period, indicating an optimization in investment structure [4] - The manufacturing sector's investment accounted for 25.6% of total investment, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year, highlighting the ongoing potential for investment growth in various sectors [4] Outlook for the Year - The economic environment is conducive to achieving annual development goals, despite facing risks and challenges; the long-term positive trends and support conditions for the economy remain unchanged [5] - The economy has shown rapid growth this year, with stable employment and prices, and a balanced international payment situation, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [6] - Demand potential continues to be released, with active market sales in tourism, culture, sports, and online consumption, indicating a robust domestic market [6] - The cultivation of new productive forces is evident, with significant growth in smart product manufacturing and green material production [6] - Ongoing macro policies are effectively implemented, contributing to demand expansion and economic stability [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.3% and rural areas declining by 0.2%[12] - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, while non-food prices increased by 0.9%[12] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Trends - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise in 2025[20] - Key industries such as black metal mining and coal mining saw price declines narrow or recover, indicating ongoing improvement in PPI[22] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - Continuous improvement in industrial product prices suggests a stable economic recovery trend[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

新华财经北京11月14日电（安娜、王春霞）四季度首月，国民经济运行情况如何？国家统计局14日公布 10月份国民经济成绩单。 "10月份国民经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进态势持续。"国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖当日在国新办发布 会上说。这也是他对这份成绩单的总体评价。 但也应该看到，进入10月以来，多项指标同比增速均有所放缓。"这除了出口受外部因素扰动之外，还 与今年工作日较上年同期少一天，以及去年一揽子增量政策抬高了基数有关。"中国民生银行首席经济 学家温彬说，但从工业增加值和服务业生产指数累计增速推断，目前经济运行仍在5.0%的目标水平之 上。 产业转型升级态势持续 细看10月份经济结构变化，产业转型升级持续，向新向绿蹄疾步稳，为经济发展提供了强劲动力。 据付凌晖介绍，我国制造业向中高端稳步迈进，装备制造业对工业生产支撑作用明显。1至10月份，全 国规模以上装备制造业增加值同比增长9.5%，占规模以上工业比重达到36.1%，对规模以上工业增加值 增长的贡献率达到58.7%。 部分高端行业投资力度加大，科技创新和产业创新的融合发展带动了部分高技术行业投资较快增长。记 者从国家统计局了解到，1至10月份，我国航空航天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is maintaining a stable growth trajectory despite facing various risks and challenges, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and a focus on innovation and market expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of the year is 5.2%, positioning China among the leading major economies globally [1] - From January to October, the industrial added value and service production index increased by 6.1% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating robust growth [1] - The urban unemployment rate has continued to decline, and consumer prices have shown positive changes, transitioning from a decrease to an increase [1] Group 2: Demand Potential - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months, surpassing the growth rate of the previous year [2] - Exports to ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 9.1%, 4.9%, and 5.9%, respectively, outpacing the overall growth rate of total goods imports and exports [2] - The focus on strengthening domestic circulation and promoting dual circulation is expected to further expand market demand [2] Group 3: New Productive Forces - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with new productive forces such as artificial intelligence, digital economy, and green economy gaining momentum [2] - The manufacturing value added for smart drones and smart vehicle-mounted devices increased by 54.7% and 25.5% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting strong growth in intelligent product manufacturing [2] - Production of bio-based chemical fibers and carbon fibers increased by 18.9% and 12.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in green materials [2] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - Proactive macroeconomic policies are being implemented, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [3] - Recent positive changes in market supply and demand have led to improved corporate profitability, with industrial enterprise profits increasing by 3.2% year-on-year from January to September [3] - The successful convening of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party has provided a strong impetus for high-quality development, reinforcing confidence in economic growth [3]

付凌晖同时提及，中国需求潜能继续释放。在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，市场销售稳步扩大， 前10月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，快于上年全年。新质生产力培育壮大。前10月，智能无人 飞行器制造、智能车载设备制造增加值同比分别增长54.7%、25.5%。 宏观政策方面，他表示，近期相关部门推出5000亿元人民币新型政策性金融工具，盘活使用地方债结存 限额，用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有效投资。同时，出台措施进一步激发民间投资活力。随着存 量政策和增量政策协同发力，将有助于增强经济上行动力。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 国家统计局：四大宏观指标显示中国经济平稳运行态势未变 中新社北京11月14日电 (记者 王恩博)中国官方14日对外公布10月份国民经济运行情况。国家统计局新 闻发言人付凌晖当天表示，从宏观经济四大指标看，中国经济平稳运行态势没有改变，为实现全年目标 打下坚实基础。 付凌晖在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上说，尽管经济运行还面临不少风险挑战，但中国经济长期向 好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变化，宏观政策持续发力，市场空间逐步拓展，新质生产力培育壮大，实 现全年预期目标具备较多有利条件。 他列举四大宏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the uncertainty of global trade, which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase. M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a - 1.61% change [10]. - The dollar index is 99.17, with a - 0.31% change. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1021, with a - 0.26% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47%, with no change. DR007 is 1.48%, with a - 0.82% change. R007 is 1.51%, with a - 1.24% change. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58%, with a + 0.16% change. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a + 0.16% change [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.41 yuan, and 116.13 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.26% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.002 yuan, 0.018 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and - 0.099 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Looking forward, positive fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - On November 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific summarized information provided other than various spread - related chart descriptions. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. Strategy - For unilateral trading, with the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - For hedging, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].