美股的疲态比你想得更严重，高盛与黄金同时发出警告 在关税成为华尔街的主要威胁之前，美国股市早已为一次大幅回调埋下了伏笔。尽管主要股指仍在向历 史高点推进，但市场表面之下令人担忧的信号，几个月来不断积聚。 标普500指数在2月19日创下历史新高，道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克综合指数则在去年12月触顶。但推动 这些主要指数攀升的个股数量却在减少。2024年标普500指数超过一半的涨幅，都归功于"七巨头"，因 为投资者大量押注人工智能概念。 "我们几个月以来就已经身处困境，接下来还有更多麻烦……市场在真正见顶之前，从内部成分股的角 度看，早就已经开始恶化了。"——Worth Charting创始人Carter Worth表示。"表面之下的动荡早在市场 实际见顶之前就已经开始……价格再次展现出它的智慧。" 根据LSEG的数据，分析师预计2025年将有455家标普500指数成分公司实现盈利增长，而2024年这一数 字仅为357家。 "年初的时候，市场对未来充满乐观，很多利好已经被计入股价，等于把预期设定得很高。"LPL首席技 术策略师Adam Turnquist说。他还补充道："市场的主导力量至今仍显得乏力。" 尽管市场情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of avoiding the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mentality among investors, as emphasized by Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, during his recent dialogues. He highlights the psychological factors that contribute to market bubbles and the need for investors to maintain rational decision-making in the face of market euphoria [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Bubbles - Howard Marks defines bubbles as periods when asset prices are excessively high, emphasizing the need to understand the psychological factors behind them rather than just relying on valuation metrics [5][6]. - He notes that while the current stock market is relatively expensive compared to historical levels, it is not in a state of extreme bubble that necessitates panic selling [6]. - Marks stresses the importance of careful evaluation of a company's potential and intrinsic value rather than being swayed by market trends [6][12]. FOMO Psychology - FOMO is described as a psychological state where investors feel compelled to participate in market trends due to the fear of missing out on potential gains, often leading to irrational investment decisions [4][7]. - Marks references Charles Kindleberger's quote about the discomfort of seeing friends become wealthy, illustrating the irrationality of FOMO [2][6]. - The article highlights that this mindset can overshadow the natural aversion to losses, causing investors to chase high prices without proper risk assessment [7][8]. AI and Nvidia - Marks acknowledges AI as a transformative technology but raises questions about its practical applications, costs, and market support, cautioning against investing driven by FOMO after observing Nvidia's significant stock price increase [14][15]. - He does not consider Nvidia's current valuation of around 30 times earnings to be excessively high compared to historical bubbles, suggesting that today's leading companies are stronger and more stable than those in past market bubbles [15][16]. U.S. Economy and Policy - Marks views the current U.S. government as business-friendly, which he believes positively impacts economic growth, but he questions the execution of policies and their long-term effects [17][18]. - He assesses that the U.S. economy is not overheating and is unlikely to face a severe recession, predicting a gradual decline in interest rates without returning to previous extreme lows [18][19]. Investment Opportunities - Marks reflects on the cyclical nature of market sentiment, noting that when pessimism prevails, unique investment opportunities arise for those willing to take risks [19][20]. - Conversely, when optimism is widespread, the potential for excess returns diminishes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [20].