| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 730 | 835 | -105 | -12.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差 (SI4210基准) | 380 | 485 | -105 | -21.65% | 元/吨 | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1080 | 1185 | -105 | -8.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合钩 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

观点 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/12/1 2 | 801 | 2092 | 2070 | 2440 | 2465 | 2395 | 2565 | 243 | 317 | 1 | 20 | - | | 2025/12/1 5 | 801 | 2123 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 供需两旺，碳酸锂维持高位震荡 碳酸锂整体维持偏强震荡态势，虽盘中受短期压力回调，但长期上涨趋势的支撑因素仍在。目前，供应端的不确 定性是支撑价格偏强的关键因素之一，国内外供应干扰消息层出不穷。整体来看，短期大概率维持高位震荡，需 聚焦产能释放节奏与资金动向，警惕供需边际变化带来的波动加剧。 单边：短期观望为主 跨期：无 风险 市场分析 2025-12-16，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于100600元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.27%。当日 成交量为597317手，持仓量为666027手，前一交易日持仓量662185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5170元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15286手，较上个交易日变化26手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94000-97700元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价92700-94000元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1260美元/吨，较前一日变化40美元/吨。据SMM 方面消息，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a rebound in both port and inland markets, a slight strengthening of the basis, slow unloading, and a continuous two - week inventory drawdown at ports with a large floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory build - up later. It was difficult to reduce imports from December to January, and the futures contract 01 offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is recommended to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical sectors are reducing inventory, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is volatile, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on contract 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of contract 01 is maintained at - 270, and the ex - works basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. The static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the thermal coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price fluctuated between 2092 - 2123, and the daily change on the 16th was - 3 compared to the previous day. The Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2580 to 2555 on the 16th, with a daily change of - 18 [2]. - **Key Information**: Iranian plants' shutdown, port and inland market rebound, basis strengthening, slow unloading, port inventory drawdown, and expected future inventory build - up. The futures contract 01 offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 745 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6530 to 6460, with a daily change of - 20 on the 16th compared to the previous day. The East China LD price decreased from 8500 to 8250 [7]. - **Key Information**: Neutral inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies, upstream and coal - chemical inventory reduction, stable social inventory, neutral downstream inventory. Stable overseas markets, import profit around - 200, weakening LD, and recent decrease in domestic linear production [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6050 to 6030 on the 16th. The East China PP price fluctuated between 6085 - 6220, and the daily change on the 16th was - 60 compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory reduction, neutral non - standard price spread, good export performance, PDH profit around - 400, stable powder production start - up rate, and expected slight increase in subsequent supply [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2550 to 2450 on the 16th. The calcium carbide - based East China PVC price increased from 4310 to 4470, with a daily change of 50 on the 16th compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Stable basis, seasonal weakening of downstream operating rates, mid - upstream inventory accumulation, seasonal overhauls in Northwest plants, and attention to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [7].

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/15 甲醇聚烯烃早报 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/12/0 8 | 801 | 2088 | 2068 | 2425 | 2465 | 2435 | 2595 | 243 | 317 | -10 | 0 | -1092 | | 2025/12/0 9 | 801 | 2090 | 2053 | 2423 | 2465 | 2385 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | -15 | 5 | -1106 | | 2025/12/1 0 | 801 | 2095 | 2048 | 2435 | 2465 ...

Macro - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated short-term U.S. Treasury purchases, indicating a slower pace of rate cuts in the coming year [3][18] - The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is being monitored for potential interest rate hikes, which could lead to a sell-off in "yen carry trades," impacting global risk assets, particularly U.S. dollar assets [3][18] Fundamentals - Domestic TC prices for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, with ongoing long-term contract negotiations expected to be unfavorable for smelters [4][19] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for December is 1.1688 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.96% and a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [4][19] - In October, net imports of refined copper fell by 31.56% year-on-year to 257,200 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 6.81% month-on-month to 196,600 tons [4][19] - As of December 12, global visible copper inventories increased by 18,000 tons to 813,000 tons, with LME inventories rising by 3,350 tons to 165,900 tons [4][19] Price Outlook - Despite a warm macro environment supported by the Fed's rate cuts, there is a discrepancy between market expectations for copper prices and current fundamentals, leading to short-term risks [5][20] - Market attention is shifting towards potential interest rate actions from the Bank of Japan, which may introduce macroeconomic volatility [5][20] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel prices have slightly decreased, while domestic refined nickel consumption is projected to drop by 30.57% month-on-month to 22,900 tons [21] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have included stainless steel products in the export license management scope, which may impact future exports [21] - LME nickel inventories decreased by 312 tons to 253,032 tons, while domestic nickel inventories increased, indicating a mixed supply situation [21] Aluminum - Aluminum oxide futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.3% week-on-week [22] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons in December, with production increasing by 6.8% month-on-month [22] - High prices and environmental regulations are suppressing demand, leading to a slight decrease in processing plant operating rates [23] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping by 4.2% week-on-week [24] - Weekly production of industrial silicon increased by 970 tons to 82,200 tons, while polysilicon production decreased by 140 tons to 26,300 tons [25] - Inventory levels for industrial silicon have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [26] Lithium Carbonate - Recent regulatory changes regarding lithium carbonate futures have been approved, which may affect market dynamics [27] - Weekly lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% to 98,210 tons, while demand for ternary materials has decreased [28] - Social inventory levels continue to decline, indicating a tightening supply situation despite fluctuations in market sentiment [29]

近日，lululemon官网发布公告称，已任职超七年的Calvin McDonald将辞去首席执行官一职。此决定将 于2026年1月31日生效。为确保平稳过渡，Calvin McDonald将在2026年3月31日前担任公司高级顾问。 同日，lululemon还最新发布了2025财年三季度财报。在lululemon宣布领导层变动和季度业绩后，其股 价在盘后交易中上涨了10%。 实际上，lululemon创始人Chip Wilson曾公开批评lululemon董事会和CEO Calvin McDonald，认为他们使 lululemon正逐渐"失去潮流感"（loss of cool）。今年10月，他自费在《华尔街日报》刊登广告，矛头直 指公司管理层："专注于财务的首席执行官们不知道如何吸引或激励创意人才，更糟糕的事，他们自认 为了解优秀的产品，实则不然。" 对于这些指责，Calvin McDonald在接受《华尔街日报》采访时回应称，早在被公开批评之前，他就已 经开始着手解决问题。比如就美国市场销售额下滑的问题，采取推出新产品和缩短生产周期的措施。而 对于因为拓展至新的非运动品类，被批"沦为Gap"，Calvi ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's stock has dropped 46.40% this year, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $25 billion, raising concerns among investors about the company's future [2] Leadership Changes - CEO Calvin McDonald will resign effective January 31, 2026, after over seven years in the role, and will serve as a senior advisor until March 31, 2026 [4] - Following the announcement of leadership changes and quarterly performance, Lululemon's stock rose by 10% in after-hours trading [4] Criticism and Response - Founder Chip Wilson criticized the board and McDonald for causing a "loss of cool" for the brand, suggesting a lack of understanding of creative talent and product excellence [6] - McDonald has initiated measures to address sales declines in the U.S. market, including new product launches and shorter production cycles [6] Market Positioning - There is a divergence in target customer focus between Wilson, who aims for products for "super girls" (young, educated professional women), and McDonald, who targets "mindful athletes" [7] - Under McDonald's leadership, Lululemon's annual revenue tripled, with expectations of reaching $11 billion this fiscal year [7] Financial Performance - For Q3 of FY2025, Lululemon reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.6 billion, with North American revenue declining by 2% and international revenue growing by 33% [10] - Same-store sales increased by 1% overall, but North America saw a 5% decline while international markets grew by 18% [10] Inventory and Pricing Strategy - The CFO noted that Lululemon has excess seasonal inventory, leading to anticipated price reductions [11] - As of Q3 2025, inventory reached $2 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with plans to manage inventory levels more effectively [11] Market Challenges - Lululemon faces intense competition in the activewear market, particularly from emerging brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori, contributing to a decline in market share [9] - The company expects a $210 million reduction in operating income due to increased tariffs and the cancellation of small exemption policies in the U.S. [9] Strategic Focus on China - Lululemon's strategy includes increasing investment in the Chinese market, where Q3 revenue grew by 46% year-over-year, with same-store sales up by 25% [12] - The company plans to open approximately 15 new stores in North America in 2025, with a significant number located in Mexico, and additional stores in China [12]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's stock has dropped 46.40% this year, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $25 billion, raising concerns among investors about the company's future [1] Leadership Changes - Calvin McDonald, the CEO for over seven years, will resign effective January 31, 2026, and will serve as a senior advisor until March 31, 2026 [2] - Following the announcement of leadership changes and quarterly performance, Lululemon's stock rose by 10% in after-hours trading [2] Criticism and Response - Founder Chip Wilson criticized the board and McDonald for causing a "loss of cool" for the brand, suggesting a lack of understanding of creative talent and product excellence [5] - McDonald has initiated measures to address sales declines in the U.S. market, including new product launches and shorter production cycles [5] Market Position and Strategy - There is a divergence in target customer focus between Wilson, who aims for products for "super girls," and McDonald, who targets "mindful athletes" [6] - Under McDonald's leadership, Lululemon's annual revenue tripled, with expectations of reaching $11 billion this fiscal year [6] Financial Performance - For Q3 of FY2025, Lululemon reported a 7% increase in net revenue to $2.6 billion, with North American net revenue declining by 2% and international net revenue increasing by 33% [9] - Same-store sales increased by 1% overall, but North America saw a decline of 5% while international markets grew by 18% [9] Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Lululemon's inventory at the end of Q3 was $2 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, indicating pressure to manage excess stock [9][10] - The company plans to control inventory units below sales levels to mitigate losses and aims to increase full-price sales penetration [9][10] Market Expansion - Lululemon plans to open approximately 15 new stores in North America in 2025, with a significant focus on the Mexican market, and will also expand in China [11]