Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory depletion is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are volatile. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import losses are around -700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and costs are stable [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Southwest delivered - price decreased by 40 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 5 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, leading to high imports in November. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory depletion difficult. Coal price increases do not affect methanol profits [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at some points, and the LL主力期货 price decreased by 9 on November 4 compared to the previous data point. The basis in North China is around -110, and in East China is around -50 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Overall inventory is neutral. Upstream and downstream inventories are in a neutral state. Domestic linear production has decreased recently, and 9 - month maintenance is flat compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained stable on November 4 compared to the previous day, and the主力期货 price decreased by 16. The basis increased by 30 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda prices remained stable. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased by 10 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4 [6].

Core Insights - Rubis reported a robust operational performance in Q3 2025 despite lower oil prices and a challenging euro-USD environment [3][4] - Revenue trends are not a meaningful indicator of Rubis' performance as they primarily reflect oil price movements without direct impact on margins [3] - The company's ability to manage inventories efficiently and implement disciplined pricing strategies is crucial for capturing value growth [4] Financial Performance - The Energy Distribution business experienced strong growth, with volumes increasing by 6% and overall unit margins rising by 3%, resulting in a total margin increase of 9% year-on-year [5] - Key drivers of this solid performance included significant growth in bitumen volumes, which were up 17% year-on-year, primarily due to strong demand in Nigeria [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of intense long - short game, with nickel prices oscillating in a range. The bearish logic lies in the high - level accumulation of smelting inventory and the expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore supply policies and the limited downward space of short - term pyrometallurgical costs [5]. - Stainless steel: The stainless - steel price shows a narrow - range oscillation at a low level. There is a lack of effective upward drivers and limited downward space. It is recommended to focus on a conservative low - level range strategy in the short term and a bottom - seeking long - entry strategy in the long term [6]. - Industrial silicon: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts are being depleted, providing a bottom support. The supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also weakening. It is advisable to take a long - position layout on dips [34]. - Polysilicon: There may be policy announcements next week, and the futures price is expected to rise and then fall. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [35]. - Lithium carbonate: In the short term, there is an expectation of a power - demand off - season, while in the long term, there is an expectation of growth in energy storage. The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. - Palm oil: The inventory de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow, and there may be a second downward exploration. The price may return to the range of 8200 - 8400 [84]. - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean price has rebounded, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties. However, it lacks an independent upward driver and is recommended for long - allocation [86]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses the price, while the uncertainty of the ore end provides support. For stainless steel, the price oscillates in a narrow range at a low level due to the lack of upward drivers and limited downward space [5][6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory of nickel - related products such as stainless steel has also shown certain changes [8]. - **Market News**: There are various news events related to the nickel market, including Indonesian ore - mining sanctions and policy announcements, as well as trade - related news [9][10][11]. - **Data Tracking**: Weekly key data of nickel and stainless steel futures, including prices, trading volumes, and related product prices, are tracked [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price increased. The polysilicon futures price continued to rise, while the spot price remained stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply shows a decreasing trend, and the demand is also weakening. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to contract, and the demand may decrease [30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon has bottom support due to the depletion of warehouse receipts, and polysilicon may experience a price increase and then a fall due to possible policy announcements [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract first rose and then fell, and the spot price increased [68]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The raw material price has increased, the inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the supply has decreased, and the demand shows a seasonal change [69]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views**: Palm oil was expected to test the support at 8200 - 8400, and soybean oil was expected to oscillate weakly following the oil sector [83]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil may have a second downward exploration due to slow inventory de - stocking in the producing areas. Soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties but lacks an independent upward driver [84][86].

Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported weak performance in the Chinese market for Q3 2025, with a focus on addressing challenges in the on-premise channel and inventory management [1][5][17] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's sales in China decreased by 11.4%, and revenue fell by 15.1%, with revenue per hectoliter down by 4.1% due to increased investment in innovative products and brand promotion [5][17] - For the first nine months of 2025, sales in China decreased by 9.3%, while revenue and revenue per hectoliter decreased by 11.3% and 2.2%, respectively [5][17] - Overall, for the first nine months of 2025, the company's total sales decreased by 7.0%, and revenue decreased by 6.6%, with revenue per hectoliter increasing by 0.4% [17] Market Strategy - The company aims to restore growth and rebuild market share by focusing on improving market channel execution and product mix [2][5] - There is a significant shift towards home consumption, with the company increasing its investment in family consumption channels and e-commerce [9][11] - The company has introduced new packaging formats, such as larger cans, to cater to the home consumption trend [9][11] Inventory Management - The company has actively managed its inventory, reporting that inventory levels and turnover days are lower than the previous year and below industry averages [8][11] Brand Development - The company is focusing on the Harbin brand as a core product line and expanding its presence in both on-premise and home consumption markets [14][16] - The company believes that the Harbin brand has strong potential to compete regionally, especially in traditional strongholds [14][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the home consumption channel, driven by rising disposable incomes and market maturity [13] - The company is optimistic about expanding its non-on-premise sales to align more closely with industry averages [13]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall gross margin improved by 9.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year, driven by product structure optimization, gold price benefits, and changes in channel structure [4] - Revenue from e-commerce increased significantly in Q3, but gross profit declined due to a shift to an agency model, although channel expenses decreased by 16.55% year-on-year [5] - The company aims for a net profit growth target of 5%-15% for the year, with confidence in continued growth from self-operated and e-commerce channels [8] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company has established a strategic partnership with Wuyou Media to enhance brand value through innovative marketing and content creation [7] - The gold leasing business is managed with a risk strategy to prevent inventory impairment while avoiding excessive leasing that could lead to losses [3] - The company is focusing on improving single-store efficiency and conducting structural adjustments in franchise operations to enhance overall performance [8] Group 3: Market Trends - The embedded product category has stabilized, with growth driven by lightweight and fashionable designs, including gold embedded products [6] - The company is seeing a positive trend in sales performance at the co-branded stores with the National Treasure project, with expectations for some stores to achieve monthly sales exceeding 10 million [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better-than-expected performance. In the short term, due to increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short positions after the futures price reaches the resistance level. In the medium to long term, demand in the north will gradually end as the temperature drops, while in the south, the rush - repair demand may boost overall consumption after the rainfall decreases. The raw material shortage and high cracking spread situation persist, and the spot basis continues to weaken, indicating a gradual decline in demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.38% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.08% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 call option at 30 - 40 yuan with a 20% ratio to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell the bu2512C3500 put option at 25 - 35 yuan with a 20% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Influenced by news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen. Although the short - term impact on Venezuelan crude oil shipments is not significant, the market is worried about asphalt raw material supply. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The cracking spread remained high due to raw material shortages. Crude oil prices rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand [3]. 4. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela; Shandong's Shengxing and Lanqiao refineries plan to shut down for asphalt production; Sino - US tariff tensions may ease; The US canceled the "Trump - Putin meeting", imposed more sanctions on Russia, and the US is purchasing strategic petroleum reserves [5][6]. Bearish Factors - OPEC continues to increase production [6]. 5. Price and Basis Data - On October 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 30 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day and 50 yuan from the previous week. The basis and cracking spread data also showed corresponding changes [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the energy chemical products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea. Some products are in a "Bearish Consolidation" or "Bearish Rebound" state, such as L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][2][6] Core Views - The overall energy chemical market is under pressure, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost - side fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Most products are expected to face downward pressure in the medium - to - long term, but short - term rebounds may occur due to cost fluctuations and market sentiment [1][2][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, leading to an oversupply of crude oil. The market has digested the risk of sanctions against Russia, and the driving force of oil prices has shifted to supply. The consumption off - season has begun, and the pressure of oversupply is gradually increasing. There are also geopolitical and macro - economic factors at play [1][9] - Strategy: Hold short positions, buy call options to control risks, and lightly add short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 465] [1][11] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The risk of US sanctions against Russia has been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased, with relatively strong demand on the demand side. The port inventory has decreased [1][15] - Strategy: Buy put options and wait for the release of risks. Lightly try short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [1][16] L - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches is neutral. The import volume in October is large, and there is an expectation of further increase. The supply will continue to be in a loose pattern. The demand peak season has arrived, but the restocking motivation is insufficient. The oil price may decline in the medium term, and the cost support is insufficient [1][20] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of L [6900 - 7100] [20] PP - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: The upstream device maintenance intensity has increased, but the demand is facing high destocking pressure at the end of the "Silver October". The oil price may continue to fall in the medium term, and the cost support of oil - based production is insufficient [1][25] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell hedges at high prices. Short - term follow - up with cost rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PP [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - Core View: Bearish Rebound [1] - Main Logic: Low - valuation support, but single - product losses are increasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The export volume in September maintained a high growth rate, and there is an expectation of rush - exporting during the Indian policy window period. New production capacity has been basically released this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the upstream marginal devices can reduce production beyond expectations to alleviate the oversupply contradiction [1][29] - Strategy: The market maintains a high contango structure. The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Short - term lightly participate in rebounds. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The supply side has seen a continuous reduction in the operating load of domestic and foreign devices. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The oil price has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the rebound height may be limited [1][31] - Strategy: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to arrange short positions at high prices, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding downstream processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of PX [6530 - 6630] [31][32] PTA - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: A new device is about to be put into production, but the processing fee is low, and the device maintenance intensity is expected to increase. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The internal upward driving force is limited in the short term, and it follows the oil price fluctuations [2][34] - Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions. Look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities by expanding TA processing margins (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the range of TA [4550 - 4630] [2][35] Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. New devices are being put into production, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The terminal consumption has improved in the short term, but the stability is to be observed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][37] - Strategy: Close short - term long positions and look for opportunities to arrange short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [4050 - 4120] [2][38] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the port basis is still weak. The supply side has a certain pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of seasonal production reduction of gas - based methanol in the southwest region and the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions". The demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak and stable [2][41] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously (take profits in batches at low prices), look for opportunities to arrange long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the range of MA [2210 - 2260] [2][43] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Main Logic: The supply is relatively loose, and the daily production is expected to return to a high level. The domestic agricultural demand has slightly improved, and the export is still good. The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the cost support still exists. However, the winter agricultural demand and export may have limited positive effects [3][45] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of UR [1625 - 1650] [3][47] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: Geopolitical sanctions risks have been released, and the cost - side oil price has corrected. The demand is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather, but the supply is sufficient [6] - Strategy: No specific strategy is mentioned in the text Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Main Logic: It follows the cost - side oil price correction. The supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the valuation is relatively high [6] - Strategy: Buy put options [6] Glass - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: After the festival, the enterprise inventory has increased counter - seasonally for three consecutive weeks, and the market has turned into a contango structure. The domestic demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure [6] - Strategy: In the short term, rely on the 5 - day moving average for short - term long positions, and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [6] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Rebound [6] - Main Logic: It rebounds following the black building materials sector. The factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is expected to increase [6] - Strategy: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Continue to hold long positions in the alkali - glass spread [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - D.R. Horton reported consolidated pre-tax income of $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion for Q4 2025, with a pre-tax profit margin of 12.4% [7] - For the full year, consolidated pre-tax income was $4.7 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.8% [7] - Net income for Q4 was $905.3 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion [9] - The average closing sales price for Q4 was $365,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year over year [9] - The company generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations in fiscal 2025, representing 10% of total revenues [8][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales revenues for Q4 were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed [9] - Net sales orders in Q4 increased 5% year over year to 20,078 homes, with order value increasing 3% to $7.3 billion [10] - The average price of net sales orders in Q4 was $364,900, flat sequentially and down 3% from the prior year [10] - Rental operations generated $81 million of pre-tax income on $805 million of revenues in Q4 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year [10] - The company’s home building lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, with 25% owned and 75% controlled through purchase contracts [15] - In the Southeast region, particularly Florida, some markets like Jacksonville and Southwest Florida faced excess inventory issues [75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - D.R. Horton remains focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to shareholders [8] - The company plans to tailor product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [8] - The company expects to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 to $35 billion for fiscal 2026, with homes closed in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand remains impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment [6] - The company anticipates that incentive levels will remain elevated in fiscal 2026, depending on demand strength during the spring selling season [12] - Management expressed a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term, despite current volatility and uncertainty in the economy [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion in fiscal 2025, reducing the outstanding share count by 9% [20] - D.R. Horton’s book value per share increased by 5% year over year to $82.15 [20] - The company’s consolidated leverage at fiscal year-end was 19.8%, with plans to maintain leverage around 20% over the long term [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the walk from the 20% gross margin in Q4 to the 20 to 20.5% in Q1? - Management indicated that the unusual impact from litigation in Q4 is not expected to persist into Q1, and the baseline would be a more normal impact from warranty and litigation going forward [27] Question: How quickly can the company ramp up starts to meet demand? - Management acknowledged that starts were intentionally lower to align inventory and expressed confidence in their ability to respond to market demand as it increases [28] Question: What is the outlook for rental operations and its impact on consolidated operating margin? - Management expects rental operations to be softer in Q1, impacting consolidated operating margin due to lower closings volume on the homebuilding side [32] Question: Can you provide insight into the Southeast market performance? - Management noted that while some areas in Florida are struggling with inventory balance, overall demand remains choppy across various markets [65] Question: What are the expectations for lot costs and stick and brick costs? - Management indicated that lot costs are expected to remain sticky, but they anticipate opportunities to renegotiate stick and brick costs down as the year progresses [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [4] Core Views - Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, while FILA's retail sales also grew at a low single-digit rate. Other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45%-50% [2][3] - The retail discount for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%. FILA's offline discount was 74% and online discount was 58% [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to a weak external consumption environment and intensified industry competition, but FILA and outdoor brands continue to perform strongly [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, Anta's closing price was HKD 87.80, with a year-to-date high of HKD 106.30 and a low of HKD 73.55. The circulating market value was HKD 246.473 billion [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be HKD 4.85, HKD 5.42, and HKD 6.19 respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 [4][6] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at HKD 77.434 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 13.622 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.7% year-on-year [6][7] Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales growth was below internal expectations, while FILA's retail sales remained healthy. The outdoor brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw retail sales growth of 45%-50% [2][3]