转自：内蒙古日报 第一，健全投融资体制机制，着力扩大有效投资。深化投资审批制度改革，进一步明确中央和地方投资 方向和重点。优化政府投资结构，高质量推进国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力项目建设。发挥政 府资金引导带动作用，撬动社会资本参与新型基础设施、新型城镇化等重大工程和补短板领域建设。完 善民营企业参与重大项目长效机制，激发民间投资活力、提高民间投资比重，增强市场主导的有效投资 增长动力。着力促进教育、医疗、养老、托育等服务领域投资增长。破除市场准入壁垒，维护公平竞争 秩序，稳定企业预期，增强投资信心。 第二，坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，更好发挥消费拉动作用。加快完善"能消费"、"敢消费"、"愿消 费"的政策环境，完善扩大消费长效机制。促进高质量充分就业，完善收入分配制度，实施城乡居民增 收计划，增强居民消费能力。稳步推进基本公共服务均等化，完善教育、托育、养老、住房、医疗保障 体系，消除消费后顾之忧。深入实施提振消费专项行动，扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育服务消费新 增长点，推动商品消费扩容升级，拓展入境消费。完善促进消费制度机制，强化消费者权益保护，创造 良好消费环境。 第三，加快提升创新能力，更大激 ...

此次中央财办明确，2026年继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，这释放了积极信号。但仍要指出的是，对于 上调力度，社会普遍期待能够更大些。近年来一种有着广泛共识的声音是，可考虑在一定时期内将城乡 居民养老金水平尽快提升至低保水平。 当前，我国已建成参保人数超10亿的世界最大养老保险体系，这是一项令人瞩目的成绩。同时要看到， 这张保障网络中不同群体的实际保障水平，仍有较大差距。其中，城乡居民养老保险待遇明显偏低，已 成为我国社会保障的一个突出短板，或者说"欠账"。 在这方面加力"补短板""补欠账"，特别是着重对农村老人养老金领取水平给予针对性提升，是整体增强 我国养老保险保障力度及公平性，不容回避的一环。这不仅关乎5亿农民的养老质量，也有着多方面的 社会积极意义。 城乡居民养老金将在明年迎来制度建立以来的第八次上涨。 近日，中央财办有关负责同志在接受新华社采访解读中央经济工作会议精神时提出，继续提高城乡居民 基础养老金。这是继今年政府工作报告提出城乡居民基础养老金最低标准提高20元后，中央再次明确提 高城乡居民基础养老金。 近年来，我国城乡居民养老保险待遇持续提升。国家基础养老金最低标准已从制度实施初期的每人每月 55 ...

报告导读： 2025 年中央经济工作会议成功举办，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需 是战略之举》，高层密集发声将消费提升至经济增长"持久动力"与"稳定锚"的核心高度。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 锚定战略基点，激活内需潜能——评2025年中央经济工作会议与《扩大内需是战略之举》； 报告日期：2025.12.17 报告作者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 邱苗（分析师），登记编号：S0880521050001 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京成功举行，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在 2026 年八项重点任务之首。 会议提到，坚持内 需主导，建设强大国内市场；深入实施提振消费专项行动，实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品供给；优化"两新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措 施，释放服务消费潜力。 12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。 文章指出，实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人 民日益增长的美好生活的需要；要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增 ...

第二，坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，更好发挥消费拉动作用。加快完善"能消费"、"敢消 费"、"愿消费"的政策环境，完善扩大消费长效机制。促进高质量充分就业，完善收入分配制度，实施 城乡居民增收计划，增强居民消费能力。稳步推进基本公共服务均等化，完善教育、托育、养老、住 房、医疗保障体系，消除消费后顾之忧。深入实施提振消费专项行动，扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培 育服务消费新增长点，推动商品消费扩容升级，拓展入境消费。完善促进消费制度机制，强化消费者权 益保护，创造良好消费环境。 新华社北京12月17日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提 出："促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。"这是关系中国式现代化战略全 局的重大部署，对于提升宏观经济治理效能、促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。 近年来，我国持续实施扩大内需战略，国内需求对经济增长的主引擎作用持续巩固，国内国际双循 环格局加快形成，为未来5年经济高质量发展打下良好基础。同时，国际环境和国内条件发生深刻复杂 变化，经济运行也面临一些挑战，迫切需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展 模式。一是推动 ...

第三，加快提升创新能力，更大激发内生增长动力。加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关。推动科 技创新和产业创新深度融合。统筹国家战略科技力量建设，强化体系化攻关能力。强化国际科技 创新中心策源功能，营造具有全球竞争力的开放创新生态。着力构建自主可控、安全高效的产业 链供应链，优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。一体推进教育科技人才发展，更 大激发创新创造活力。深入推进数字中国建设，推动平台经济创新和健康发展。 同时，更好发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，完善市场经济基础制度，增强宏观政策取向一致性，健 全预期管理机制，提升宏观经济治理效能。进一步拓展双向投资合作空间，推动贸易创新发展， 扩大高水平对外开放，促进提升国内大循环质量和水平。 第一，健全投融资体制机制，着力扩大有效投资。深化投资审批制度改革，进一步明确中央和地 方投资方向和重点。优化政府投资结构，高质量推进国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力项目 建设。发挥政府资金引导带动作用，撬动社会资本参与新型基础设施、新型城镇化等重大工程和 补短板领域建设。完善民营企业参与重大项目长效机制，激发民间投资活力、提高民间投资比 重，增强市场主导的有效投资增长动力。着力促 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. [17][24][56] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a significant decline, there may be a technical rebound, but the rebound without news support may have limited height. The trading strategy is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying approach in a volatile market, wait for the spread of the discount to widen for the IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying option strategy. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities show differentiated performance. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether the bond market will turn bearish. The trading strategy is to stop the short positions of TS and TF contracts at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: With large supply pressure from new crops, the price of US soybeans continues to decline. The international soybean market is in a pattern of abundant supply. The trading strategy is to wait and see, narrow the MRM spread, and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [25][26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices are weak. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, and the international sugar price may bottom - out and oscillate. The domestic sugar market may still maintain a weak trend in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on the January contract and short on the May contract, and wait and see for options. [28][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is weakly oscillating. The trading strategy is to buy on dips after the price stops falling and stabilizes, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [34][35] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and establish long positions on the 07 contract at low prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [37][38] - **Hogs**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to adopt a short - selling strategy, and wait and see for arbitrage and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [39][40] - **Peanuts**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [41][43] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [44][46] - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract, and wait and see for options. [48][50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [52][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in a range and may rebound from the bottom in the short term, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread at high prices, and wait and see for options. [57][58] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the current situation has priced in most of the negative factors, and pay attention to the change of trading logic. [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach. The current supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to run weakly at a high level. [62][65] - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination. [66][67] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US employment market is cooling down, but under the situation of multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy the out - of - the - money call option. [69][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is lower than expected, and they are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum and palladium at low prices, and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [74][76] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The US employment data shows that the labor market is cooling down, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long term. [77][80] - **Alumina**: Be vigilant against the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The fundamental situation is still under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [80][83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook, and the price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate after a correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook this week. The trading strategy is to oscillate with the decline of the aluminum price, conduct the AD - AL spread convergence arbitrage during the decline of the aluminum price, and wait and see for options. [87][88] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the magnitude of overseas warehouse delivery. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the overseas delivery has put pressure on the price, and consider the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy when the export window may open intermittently. [89][92] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the change of inventory. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the short positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [93][96] - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [97][98] - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price and oscillates weakly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, and wait and see for arbitrage. [100][101] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [102][103] - **Polysilicon**: Buy on dips. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the put option. [104][104] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The impact of the mining license is limited, and pay attention to the inventory data. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the 2605 contract when the price rises. [105][107] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November and be vigilant against the change of macro - economic sentiment, and wait and see for options. [108][111] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK tested the price of 2800 in the first week. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest, and wait and see for arbitrage. [112][114] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is close to the annual low, and the geopolitical factor is still the focus. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [116][117] - **Bitumen**: The oil price has dropped significantly, and there are still concerns about the raw materials. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate and stabilize, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the BU2602 contract. [119][121] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is frequently disturbed by the change of devices. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The downward trend of LNG remains unchanged, and HH continues to correct. The trading strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the TTF call option. [124][126] - **LPG**: It is slightly stronger than oil. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **PX and PTA**: The PX operating rate remains high, and there is still an expectation of PTA inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, conduct the reverse arbitrage for the PX3, 5 & PTA1, 5 contracts, and wait and see for options. [130][131] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene are loose, and the basis of styrene is loosening. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [133][134] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some enterprises have reduced the operating load, and the price has rebounded slightly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [136][137] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [138][140] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [141][142] - **Propylene**: The operating rate is rising, and the inventory is at a high level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the call option. [143][144] - **Plastic PP**: The electricity consumption of the rubber and plastic industry has decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the L main 2605 contract and try to go long on the PP main 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [146][148] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [149][151] - **PVC**: It rebounds from the bottom. The trading strategy is to expect the price to rebound from the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [152][153] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract roll - over. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term price is expected to be stable. [155][159] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [157][160] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [162][163] - **Urea**: India has tendered again. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in the short term and run weakly in the medium term, and wait and see for options. [165][166] - **Pulp**: The reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts and the change of port inventory. The trading strategy is to hold the previous short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [169][170] - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weakening, the futures price is inverted, and pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually stop the profit of the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [171][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains high, and the transmission of high pulp price is less than expected. The trading strategy is to be bearish, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber**: The accumulation of the main visible inventory has slowed down. The trading strategy is to try to short the RU main 05 contract lightly and hold long positions for the NR main 02 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [179][182] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The fixed - asset investment in the domestic rubber and plastic industry continues to slow down. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the BR main 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options. [183][185]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-17） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运行。钢材出口 | | | | | 实施许可证管理制度，最直接的影响就是买单出口被"限 | | | | | 制"，对于明年钢材出口的预期需要下调，同时关注是否 | | | | | 匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于原料而言是确定性的利空。 | | | | | 策略上，依托年底成材高结转库存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻 | | | | | 找反弹抛空机会。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：上周四中央经济工作会议虽然再提"反内卷"，但 | | | | | 增量政策的信息太少，导致盘面有所回落。钢材出口实施 | | | | ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand remains weak, putting pressure on the overall fundamentals of iron ore. It is predicted that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the entire sector, coking coal and coke are relatively weaker, and an arbitrage strategy of shorting coking coal and coke and going long on iron ore can be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - On December 16, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures oscillated upward, opening with an upward trend, oscillating in the afternoon, and closing at 761.0 yuan/ton, up 1.06% [7]. - The table shows the prices, trading volumes, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on December 16, including RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, and I2605 [5]. - Another table presents the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on December 16, covering RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, J2601, JM2605, and I2605 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On December 16, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Technical Analysis: For the iron ore 2605 contract, the daily KDJ indicator shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily MACD indicator's green bar is narrowing [9]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly increased, and the arrivals also rose. As the end of the year approaches, overseas mines may increase their shipments to meet their targets [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products reached a new low since late February, with the output of construction steel dropping most significantly. The average daily hot - metal output has declined for four consecutive weeks and is now below 2.3 million tons. Although steel mill profits have recovered, due to the seasonal weakness of terminal demand, the enthusiasm for steel mills to resume production is still low, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak [10][11]. - Inventory: Steel mills are restocking as needed. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 20 days compared to last week. Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching 154 million tons, a new high since April 2022, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission's Party Group pointed out in an article in Qiushi magazine that efforts should be made to stabilize bulk consumption, implement the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, and carry out key projects in consumption - supporting facilities such as elderly care, childcare, health, and cultural tourism. It also mentioned measures to regulate market competition and remove unreasonable consumption restrictions [12]. - The Hainan Provincial People's Government announced that Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start the whole - island customs closure on December 18 [12]. 3.5 Data Overview The report provides multiple charts showing various data related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipments, arrivals, production, inventory, and utilization rates, with data sources from MySteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][22][23] etc.

今 日 早 评 【短评-白银】美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非 农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人，但失业率却 意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就 业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人，8月和9月也合 计下修3.3万人。评：美国就业数据整体偏弱，支持明年降息， 但是不一定在1月份降息，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多 支撑。关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1257元/吨，近期价格 偏弱；纯碱周度产量73.54万吨，环比+4.48%；纯碱厂家总库存 149.43万吨，周下降2.88%；浮法玻璃开工率73.84%，周度- 0.89个百分点；全国浮法玻璃均价1090元/吨，环比上日持平； 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5822.7万重箱，环比下降2.04%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存下降，华东市场区域窄幅整理操 作，原片企业多稳价出货为主 ...

【市场数据】 1、据新华社，中央财办有关负责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访，深入解读中央经济工作会 议精神。有关负责同志指出，展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我 们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没 有改变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势将更 加彰显。活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入新动能，人流、物流、信息流、资金流保持较快增长态 势，投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发阶段，我国 经济发展前景是十分光明的。 2、12月15日，社保基金会党组书记、理事长刘昆同志主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议 精神，研究贯彻落实工作。会议强调，要稳妥审慎抓好基金投资运营。紧密跟踪国内外宏观经济和资本 市场形势，科学有效开展资产配置，稳健做好各大类资产投资。充分发挥长期资金、耐心资本作用，在 守住安全底线的基础上，积极服务国家发展需要，更好支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合。要着眼长远 谋划推动基金事业发展。围绕"十五五"规划建议提出的重要要求 ...