Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Government bond net financing in the 26th week (6/23 - 6/29) was 67.14 billion yuan, and in the 27th week (6/30 - 7/6) it was 22.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.3 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance of new local bonds in the 26th week was 59.05 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 25.74 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.1% [1][7]. - Treasury bond net financing in the 26th week was 11.1 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 19.99 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.8% [1][8]. - Local bond net financing in the 26th week was 56.04 billion yuan, and in the 27th week it was 2.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, the cumulative amount was 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 67.14 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 22.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 7.7 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 4.3 trillion yuan [1][7] Treasury Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 11.1 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 19.99 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 3.4 trillion yuan, progress 50.8%, exceeding the average of the past five years' same - period [1][8] Local Bond Net Financing - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 56.04 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 2.16 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 4.4 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 2.5 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.72 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0.66 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 445.4 billion yuan, progress 55.7%, exceeding last year's same - period [2][10] New Special Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 42.23 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 5.08 billion yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 2.1 trillion yuan, progress 48.0%, exceeding last year's same - period. Special new special bonds issued 510.6 billion yuan, land reserve special bonds issued 192.5 billion yuan. The third - quarter issuance plan shows 2.7 trillion yuan, including 1.5 trillion yuan of new special bonds and 222.7 billion yuan of new general bonds. The planned issuance of new special bonds decreases monthly, about 69 billion yuan in July [2][14] Special Refinancing Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 5.97 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): 0 yuan. As of the 26th week, cumulative 1.8 trillion yuan, issuance progress 90% [2][25] Urban Investment Bond - 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): net financing - 1.47 billion yuan; 27th week (6/30 - 7/6): expected - 2.7 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][26][29]

Group 1 - HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast from $3,015 per ounce to $3,215 per ounce [1] - The bank has also increased its 2026 average price forecast from $2,915 per ounce to $3,125 per ounce [1] - The adjustments are attributed to rising risks and increasing government debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Group 1 - Most Asian currencies strengthened as data indicated improvement in Chinese business activity, while the US dollar weakened due to heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][3] - The US dollar remains at a three-year low, pressured by rising government debt concerns, especially with a comprehensive tax cut and spending reduction bill progressing in the Senate [3][7] - The Chinese yuan appreciated slightly, with the June PMI showing a smaller-than-expected contraction in manufacturing and a rebound in non-manufacturing activity [4][5] Group 2 - The data reflects an improvement in Chinese business activity, with a recovery in overseas orders following the agreement to reduce trade tariffs between the US and China [5] - Despite the improvement, Chinese manufacturing has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating ongoing pressure from relatively high US tariffs and weak domestic demand [5] - The US dollar index and futures fell by 0.2%, remaining close to the lowest level since early 2022, amid market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 3 - Concerns over rising US government debt due to the tax cut bill are weighing on the dollar, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating an increase of nearly $3.3 trillion in debt over the next decade [7] - The Asian currencies generally benefited from the weak dollar, although some lackluster data and uncertainty regarding Trump's trade policies limited larger gains [7] - The Japanese yen fell by 0.4% against the dollar, despite lower-than-expected industrial production growth in May [9]

Core Viewpoint - The White House's chief economist predicts that President Trump's economic policies could reduce the U.S. budget deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade, contrasting with analysts' views that government debt will reach record highs in the coming years [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Policy Impact - The White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran stated that the overall impact of the President's policy mix is expected to lead to a deficit reduction of approximately $8.5 trillion to $11 trillion within the ten-year budget window [1] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts hold a differing opinion, suggesting that government debt is likely to hit record levels in the near future, indicating skepticism towards the White House's optimistic projections [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The report presents basic data such as the ChinaBond Composite Index (254.4), ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index (245.4/209.1), 10 - year bank - interbank treasury bond yield (1.65), and enterprise/company/convertible bond scales (70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion) [4]. Summary by Category Government Debt Financing - **Total Government Debt**: The net financing of government bonds was 2190 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15) and 2594 billion yuan in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22). As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 6.8 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and treasury bonds [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The net financing of treasury bonds was 2621 billion yuan in the 24th week and 1351 billion yuan in the 25th week. The annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [8]. - **Local Bonds**: The net financing of local bonds was - 430 billion yuan in the 24th week and 1243 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of the 24th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [10]. - **New General Bonds**: The issuance of new general bonds was 13 billion yuan in the 24th week and 272 billion yuan in the 25th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [10]. - **New Special Bonds**: The issuance of new special bonds was 71 billion yuan in the 24th week and 425 billion yuan in the 25th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued [14]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 267 billion yuan in the 24th week and 527 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [28]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 6 billion yuan in the 24th week and is expected to be - 383 billion yuan in the 25th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is approximately 10.4 trillion yuan [30]. Other Data - **General Deficit**: As of the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [7]. - **Project Coverage of Special New Special Bonds**: According to Enterprise Early - Warning System statistics, the cumulative number of idle land parcels covered by the disclosed acquisition of existing idle land projects is 4176, and the capital scale (including proposed) is approximately 4564 billion yuan [14].

Loan and Credit Analysis - In May, new loans amounted to 620 billion, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 330 billion due to a low base[3] - The reduction in short-term loans and bill financing totaled 546 billion year-on-year, indicating a cooling in corporate short-term financing behavior[3] - The balance of loans saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to 7.1%[3] Government Debt and Social Financing - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, an increase of 224.8 billion year-on-year[4] - New government bonds issued amounted to 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion, supporting social financing growth[4] - The active issuance of corporate bonds totaled 149.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion, driven by lower long-term interest rates[4] Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M2 growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%, yet remains at a high level, contrasting with the declining loan growth rate[5] - In May, deposits from residents and enterprises increased by 50 billion and 382.4 billion respectively, while fiscal deposits saw a modest increase of 116.7 billion[5] - M1 experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, marking a near 15-month high[5] Market Outlook and Risks - The current real estate market has not yet established a solid bottom, and the internal credit financing demand is cooling, making it difficult for minor rate cuts to reverse the trend quickly[5] - The potential for further monetary easing remains, with a forecast for a 10 basis point rate cut in June[5] - Risks include the possibility of monetary policy easing being less than expected[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

Group 1 - The report defines fiscal sustainability as the long-term stability or decline of the debt-to-GDP ratio, or the future public revenue being sufficient to cover all public expenditures and accumulated debt [1][14]. - As of the end of 2023, China's explicit government debt reached 56.14% of GDP, while implicit debt accounted for 11.34%, leading to a total debt of 67.48% of GDP. Local government financing platform debt constituted 57.24% of GDP [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that maintaining fiscal sustainability does not require a zero deficit, but rather that the deficit should not exceed sustainable thresholds to avoid increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio [2][14]. Group 2 - The report highlights that reasonable uses of debt include infrastructure construction and counter-cyclical adjustments, but long-term reliance on debt for regular expenditures is unsustainable [3][20]. - Key factors for fiscal sustainability include economic growth and inflation, with nominal GDP growth being crucial. The report warns against deflation, which could exacerbate debt burdens [4][15]. - Structural reforms are necessary, including reducing administrative expenditures, optimizing the tax system, and improving social security systems to narrow structural deficits [4][5]. Group 3 - The report suggests that China should learn from international experiences, such as the EU's establishment of debt and deficit warning lines, to assess long-term risks while controlling debt levels [6]. - It emphasizes that China's fiscal issues are fundamentally structural, requiring tax optimization, expenditure restructuring, and market-oriented reforms for sustainable fiscal and economic interaction [6][24]. - The report concludes that while challenges such as high local debt and slowing growth exist, a reasonable policy mix can prevent a debt crisis and lay the foundation for long-term development [6].