瑞典央行：政策利率的预测包含今年再次降息的可能性。 ...

瑞典央行：瑞典央行预计2025年第三季度政策利率平均为1.99%，之前预测为2.25%。预计2025年第四 季度的政策利率平均为1.92%，之前预测为2.25%。 ...

日本银行总裁植田和男进入日银总部（17日上午，东京都中央区） 2026年4月以后每个季度的减少幅度将压缩到2000亿日元。此外，政策利率维持在 0.5%…… 日本银行（央行）在6月17日召开的货币政策会议上决定继续减少购买日本国债。每个季度的 减少幅度将从目前的4000亿日元压缩到2026年4月以后的2000亿日元，放缓减少速度。货 币政策将维持现状，政策利率维持在0.5%。 为了改善国债市场的流动性，针对向金融机构借出国债的"国债补充供应操作"，放宽了金融 机构在不返还的情况下直接购买时的条件。以日本央行持有额占发行余额80%以上的10年期 债券的一部分为对象，在市场持有额恢复到1.5万亿日元左右的水平之前，金融机构可以购 买。 日本央行维持了目前定为0.5%的政策利率。将继续关注美国特朗普政府的关税政策对日本经 济和物价的影响。在植田总裁的记者会上，关于紧张的中东局势和大米等食品价格上涨的发 言也备受关注。 美国关税政策的影响"尚未对经济统计和数据产生明显的负面影响"（日本央行相关人士）。 植田总裁在3日的演讲中表示，"这将成为拖累经济的因素"，计划今后密切关注对加薪和设备 投资等的负面影响。 版权声明： ...

Group 1 - The Japanese 5-year government bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.025% [1] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield also rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.465% [1] - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% and will slow down the pace of bond purchase reduction [1]

中信证券研报称，预计本周美英日央行的议息会议均将维持政策利率不变，市场关注G7会议期间美日 关税谈判进展，在二者谈判能见度依旧不高的背景下预计日央行将按兵不动，英国央行或将在下半年锚 定美联储降息路径，预计本周维持政策利率不变。 ...

乌兹别克斯坦央行宣布维持政策利率不变，仍为14.0%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fixed income market and interest rate trends in the context of the broader financial environment in China, particularly focusing on government bonds and corporate financing costs. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Trends**: There is a prevailing expectation that interest rates will continue to decline, with current rates for certain bonds nearing historical lows. For instance, the rate for 30-year government bonds is approximately 1.9% and for corporate bonds like Shidai New Materials, it is around 1.66% [3][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The decline in interest rates is attributed to easing concerns at the end of the quarter and the central bank's liquidity support. Banks have been buying older bonds, especially short-term ones, due to reduced pressure on profitability [2][4]. - **Impact of Deposit Rates**: The rapid decrease in deposit rates, with major banks reducing rates by 50 to 70 basis points, has significantly lowered overall funding costs in the market. This trend is expected to continue, further affecting fixed income asset yields [7][8]. - **Corporate Financing Costs**: As corporate financing costs decrease, financial institutions face challenges in balancing liabilities and net interest margins. The decline in funding costs is a key factor driving down overall market yields [6][10]. - **Broad vs. Policy Interest Rates**: Broad interest rates, which include yields on loans and other alternative assets, are more reflective of market conditions than policy rates, which tend to lag behind. Currently, actual funding costs are higher than the policy benchmark by approximately 1.4% [5][12]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The market anticipates a new downward phase for interest rates, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics and increased liquidity from the central bank. The government bond supply is expected to slow down in the third quarter [3][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Insurance Sector Impact**: The insurance industry has seen a reduction in preset rates to around 2.13%, which may further decrease, affecting the cost of liabilities and the return expectations for financial institutions [10]. - **Net Interest Margin Trends**: Banks have experienced a decline in net interest margins, with the average dropping to about 1.4% in the first quarter, indicating pressure on profitability due to lower asset yields [11]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on the Chinese bond market is considered limited in the short term, with a focus on actual trade data rather than negotiation progress. Investors are advised to adopt strategies that leverage short-term positions while extending duration on long-term bonds [15].

美联储理事库格勒：自年初以来，裁员通知数量有所增加，美联储褐皮书中提及裁员的情况也有所上 升。 如果通胀上行风险持续存在，将继续支持维持政策利率在当前水平。 ...

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines dropped to 1.3% in May, the lowest level since December 2019 [1][2] - The average inflation rate for the first five months of the year is 1.9%, below the government's target range of 2% to 4% [1][2] Inflation Details - The decline in inflation is attributed to slower price increases in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which decreased from 2.9% to 2.3% [1] - The price increase for food and accommodation services fell from 2.3% to 2.0% [1] - Transportation prices saw a larger decline, with a drop from 2.1% to 2.4% [1] Core Inflation - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained at 2.2%, but is lower than the 3.1% recorded in the same month last year [2] - The May inflation rate fell within the central bank's forecast range of 0.9% to 1.7% [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The slowdown in inflation led the central bank to lower the key policy rate by 25 basis points in April [2] - The central bank governor indicated the possibility of at least two more rate cuts within the year [2]

瑞士央行行长：瑞士央行的政策利率是主要工具，但我们也将考虑采取其他措施，例如外汇市场干预。 ...