Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC economists predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes [1] Group 1 - HSBC's Ryan Wang notes that there are differing views among policymakers regarding the recent policy path ahead of the meeting [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for a rate cut in July, indicating potential dissent among officials in the upcoming decision [1] - Chairman Powell may face questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve during the meeting [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of liquidity, tightening the loose state of market liquidity and causing market interest rates to rise. Since July, due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and positive macro - economic expectations, market interest rates have gradually increased. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for further upward movement of market interest rates is limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. But the LPR remained unchanged in July, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On July 24, 2025, the central bank announced that on July 25, it will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid manner. - On July 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating interest rate of 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will determine its policy interest rate based on actual inflation and expected inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Central Bank emphasizes a data-driven approach to setting interest rates, focusing on both current and anticipated inflation levels [1]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "dummy" for maintaining high interest rates, which he believes are detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump stated that Powell will leave his position in eight months, specifically by mid-March, although it is unclear why this timeframe was chosen [2] - Economists warned that efforts to push the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy could backfire, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Trump emphasized that the economy is strong, but high interest rates are making housing unaffordable for many [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve lowering policy rates by 1 percentage point last year, mortgage rates have increased, following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Concerns were raised about the Federal Reserve's mission being misaligned, with criticism directed at the spending on new buildings and renovations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, aligning with market expectations. This marks the second consecutive month of stable rates following a 10 basis point reduction in May [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Analysis - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Dongfang Jincheng noted that after the implementation of monetary easing tools in May, the focus has shifted to observing the effectiveness of these policies, leading to insufficient motivation for banks to lower LPR and policy rates further [3]. - The economic performance in the second quarter has been stable yet strong, reducing the immediate necessity for further LPR adjustments to enhance counter-cyclical regulation [3]. - The stability of policy rates over the past two months indicates that factors influencing LPR adjustments have not changed significantly, justifying the unchanged LPR rates in July [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, analysts expect the LPR to remain stable in the short term as the market enters a policy observation phase. However, there is potential for future reductions in LPR as the external environment remains uncertain and efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [3]. - The anticipated impact of external fluctuations on exports is expected to manifest more significantly in the second half of the year, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may lead to further reductions in LPR [3]. - The next potential adjustment of the LPR is projected to occur around the beginning of the fourth quarter [3].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

哈萨克斯坦央行将政策利率维持在16.5%不变。符合市场预期。 ...