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东吴证券晨会纪要-20251119
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-18 23:30
Macro Strategy - In 2026, the narrow deficit is expected to reach 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 276.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while the broad deficit is projected to be 14.54 trillion yuan, up about 167 billion yuan year-on-year, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 9.8%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [1][13] - The total fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to be 43.54 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth rate [1][13] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 3%-4%, compared to an estimated 4.5%-5% in 2025 [2][14][15] - The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to ease, with the likelihood of large-scale tariff increases from the U.S. being relatively low [2][15] Industry Analysis - The 2025 Double Eleven sales event saw total e-commerce sales reach approximately 16,950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms accounting for 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The coal industry is projected to experience a weak equilibrium in supply and demand, leading to fluctuating coal prices in the first half of 2026, with a focus on high-dividend investment logic [7][8] Company Insights - Leap Motor's Q3 performance maintained positive profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 700 million, 3.3 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 103, 21, and 11 times [9] - Geely's Q3 results met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast to 18.1 billion yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted downwards to 19.5 billion and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [11] - Tencent's overall performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 255.5 billion, 285.8 billion, and 318.2 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [12]
各地积极做好明年专项债项目储备
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-18 20:05
● 本报记者 熊彦莎 临近年底,各地财政部门积极部署2026年专项债券项目储备工作。专家认为,新能源、新基建等领域项 目建设周期较长,地方政府提前谋划明年项目,有利于做好跨年度衔接,推动明年一季度专项债发行提 速。 积极启动项目储备 在政策支持下,土地储备成为专项债券项目储备的重点方向。湖南省株洲市攸县近期公示了2026年第一 批土地储备专项债项目地块收储价格,涉及13个土储债项目,总用地面积超79万平方米,拟收储价格合 计15.03亿元。 "优质项目储备是地方政府用好用足专项债券、提高资金使用效率的核心与前提。"中诚信国际研究院研 究员汪苑晖告诉记者,一方面,充足的项目储备有助于保障资金到位后第一时间开工建设,避免资金闲 置,推动快速形成基建实物量,带动扩大有效投资;另一方面,加强与地方经济社会发展需求精准适配 的优质项目储备,也有助于优化产业结构、增强发展后劲。 中央财经大学财税学院教授白彦锋表示,新能源、新基建等领域的项目建设周期通常超过一年,在年末 关键时点着手部署2026年一季度的建设资金需求,对于确保明年良好开局有重要意义。 专项债发行或提速 近年来,根据全国人大常委会授权,经国务院同意,财政部每 ...
7月以来融资余额增超三成 科技股最受青睐
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-18 18:14
Group 1: A-Share Market Financing Trends - The financing balance of A-shares has been steadily increasing since July 1, reaching 2.48 trillion yuan as of November 17, marking a historical high and a growth of 644.17 billion yuan (35%) compared to the end of the first half of the year [1] - 14 sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry saw net financing inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the electronics sector leading at 148.06 billion yuan, followed by power equipment at 94.80 billion yuan, and communications and non-ferrous metals each exceeding 40 billion yuan [1] - The increase in financing balance reflects a positive change in investor sentiment and serves as a significant source of incremental capital for the A-share market [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - 108 individual stocks have seen net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan since the second half of the year, with the top 20 stocks in net financing inflows including 10 related to computing power, chips, or semiconductors, and 4 from the new energy sector [1] - Notable stocks with high net financing inflows include CATL, NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology, and Cambrian, each exceeding 10 billion yuan, while Sunshine Power, SMIC, and Industrial Fulian followed with inflows above 5 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Optical Module Sector Insights - The optical module sector has seen significant stock price increases, attracting substantial capital inflows, with NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang ranking second and third in net inflows, and Tianfu Communication also showing a net inflow of 3.07 billion yuan [2] - Demand for 800G optical modules is currently maturing, while 1.6T optical modules are in the early stages of ramp-up, with expectations for continued high growth rates through 2025 and 2026 [2] - The global optical module market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 22% over the next five years, driven by strong demand from AI cluster applications and upgrades in DWDM networks by cloud companies and telecom service providers [2] Group 4: Company-Specific Financial Performance - Sifang Precision's main business includes digital transformation and traditional financial IT services, reporting a revenue of 453 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 14.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.36% to 66.89 million yuan [3] - Several coal stocks, including Electric Power Investment Energy and Lu'an Environmental Energy, have experienced net financing repayments, with forecasts indicating stable coal prices and steady profitability for leading companies in the sector [3]
成长型标的成公募机构四季度以来调研重点
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-18 16:17
本报记者 方凌晨 其中,创金合信基金调研次数多达427次,"领跑"一众公募机构。从Wind行业分类来看,其调研标的主要集中于工业机 械、电子元件、医疗保健设备等行业,金石资源、欧科亿、华锐精密是其关注度较高的个股。平安基金、华夏基金分别以256 次、231次的调研次数紧随其后。平安基金调研标的主要集中于工业机械、电子元件、集成电路等行业,对博盈特焊、凯格精 机等个股关注度更高。华夏基金调研标的则更多分布在工业机械、医疗保健设备、集成电路等行业。 整体来看,科创板与创业板个股成为公募机构调研的焦点,公募机构对这两大板块相关标的的调研频次位居全市场前列。 朱润康认为,在监管部门各项政策的引导和推动下,科创板与创业板市场包容性持续提升,成为支撑科技创新、助力产业 升级的重要阵地。今年前三季度,科创板与创业板上市公司整体业绩显著改善,成长韧性凸显。在AI(人工智能)、新能源等 前沿需求的拉动下,科创板与创业板个股已成为机构资金配置高成长资产的核心选择。 今年四季度以来,公募机构进一步加强调研,其中科创板、创业板成长型标的成为调研重点。 这也与业内人士的投资观点相契合。在近期市场震荡调整、AI主题投资分化等背景下,业界 ...
高盛2026年投资展望:AI领域驱动私募股权结构分化,关注行业领先公司折价机会
IPO早知道· 2025-11-18 14:29
本文为IPO早知道原创 作者| 罗宾 微信公众号|ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息,11月18日,高盛资产管理发布题为"于复杂环境中捕捉新契机" (Seeking Catalysts Amid Complexity)的2026年投资展望报告。报告突出了以下主题: S基金和延续基金将继续是GP和LP的关键流动性来源。 公开市场领域 ,各股票市场差异或将扩大,倾向全球股票多元化配置、基本面与量化策略结合。固 定收益强调久期和战略性曲线仓位的多元配置,以应对复杂的宏观信号。证券化、高收益及新兴市场 信用产品可能出现良机。 私募市场方面 ,新交易和退出活动整体环境利好,私募股权基金管理人业绩表现的分散性扩大。私 募信贷违约率历史上低于银团贷款,收益仍将高于公开市场收益。严谨的承销发挥关键作用,并且在 AI和能源转型驱动下,基础设施领域正在出现新的机会。 公开市场:股票市场由AI、地缘政治和货币政策驱动,基本面与量化策略 结 合 美国:"七巨头"凭借强大的核心业务和战略再投资继续扩大市场份额,这些公司强劲的盈利能力可 能为进一步的增长奠定基础。超大规模企业(包括亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软和甲骨文)的人工智 ...
多氟多(002407):六氟业务反转且盈利弹性大,圆柱电池开始正贡献
CMS· 2025-11-18 13:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is the world's second-largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate, with a strong integrated layout and leading technology in crystalline hexafluoride. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue growing, leading to a significant rebound in hexafluoride supply and demand, with prices increasing over 170% from the bottom. This business is projected to contribute significantly to profits next year [1][7]. - The cylindrical battery business is starting to gain traction, with the company expected to become a key player in this field, contributing positively to profitability [1][27]. - The company has a comprehensive advantage in the hexafluoride sector, with a complete industrial chain from raw materials to lithium batteries, which enhances cost advantages [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Advantages in Hexafluoride - The company has established a complete industrial chain for hexafluoride production, significantly reducing raw material costs [10]. - It is the first domestic company to achieve breakthroughs in high-purity crystalline hexafluorophosphate technology, simplifying operations and improving raw material utilization [10][7]. 2. Reversal in Hexafluoride Supply and Demand - The hexafluoride market is experiencing a reversal in supply and demand, with prices rising sharply due to increased demand from the lithium battery sector. The average price has surged from 50,000 yuan/ton to over 150,000 yuan/ton [13][14]. - The company has a diverse customer base, with less than 30% of revenue coming from its top five customers, allowing it to be more sensitive to price increases [14][13]. 3. Growth in Cylindrical Battery Business - The company has been developing its battery business for over a decade, focusing on cylindrical batteries, which are now seeing significant demand in various sectors [27]. - The company aims to achieve a shipment volume of over 10 GWh in 2025, with expectations to reach 20-30 GWh in subsequent years [27][28]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of approximately 10.26 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase projected for 2026 and 2027 [33][32]. - The gross profit margin for the hexafluoride business is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 28% in 2025 and 41% in 2026 [32][33].
“陕电入皖”特高压工程安徽段全线贯通
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-11-18 12:24
Core Points - The "Shan Electric into Anhui" UHV project, specifically the Shanbei-Anhui ±800 kV UHV DC transmission line, has completed its full line connection in Anhui on November 18 [1] - Once operational, the project is expected to deliver over 36 billion kWh of electricity annually to Anhui, with more than half coming from renewable energy sources [1] Group 1 - The Shanbei-Anhui ±800 kV UHV DC transmission line is the first high-proportion renewable energy UHV DC transmission channel in Anhui, spanning a total length of 1,055 kilometers from Yan'an, Shaanxi to Hefei, Anhui [2] - The Anhui section of the project will commence construction in July 2024, involving the installation of 672 new towers over a distance of 323 kilometers, with significant construction challenges due to multiple crossings of railways, highways, and rivers [2] - Advanced construction techniques, including visual control intelligent tensioning equipment and real-time monitoring through video and 5G networks, will be employed to ensure smooth construction processes [2] Group 2 - The project is scheduled to be ready for electrification by March 2026, with system debugging to be completed by the end of June, aiming to enhance the power supply security and accelerate the establishment of a new energy system in Anhui [2]
首批265名科技工作者拟入选河南郑州中小学科学顾问专家库
Zheng Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-11-18 12:19
据介绍,拟入选郑州市中小学科学顾问专家库的265人,分别来自全市范围内的高校、科研院所、科技 馆、青少年宫、博物馆、文化馆、图书馆、规划展览馆、医院、科创平台、科技企业、工农企事业等单 位科技(科普)工作者。入选者分别在人工智能、机器人、中微子、"双碳"、航空航天、生物技术、海 洋科技、新一代信息技术、新材料、新能源、未来能源、医药健康、食品安全、农业技术等科学技术领 域拥有扎实的理论功底、丰富的实践经验以及较高的行业影响力,具备较高的科学素养和科普工作经 验,熟悉所属领域前沿技术发展动态。 按照计划,首批拟入选专家库成员名单公示时间从2025年11月17日起至11月21日。专家库成员确定后, 全市各中小学将可依照"就近就地、双向择优"原则,从专家库选择1名或多名专家,协商聘任为学校科 学副校长。(记者王红) 记者2025年11月17日从河南省郑州市教育局获悉,首批265名来自各行各业的科技工作者拟入选郑州市 中小学科学顾问专家库。 为进一步推动郑州市作为国家中小学科学教育试验区工作高质量发展,充分发挥科技人才在科学教育中 的引领作用,郑州市教育局联合市科技局、市科协组建"郑州市中小学科学教育顾问专家库",经 ...
新周期渐启,新领域纷呈
HTSC· 2025-11-18 11:59
Group 1: Oil and Gas - The oil supply-demand situation is under short-term pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, but medium to long-term oil prices are expected to have bottom support, with Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel respectively [2][46] - The demand for natural gas in China is expected to continue growing, supported by low import costs, which will enhance profitability in the domestic industry chain [49] Group 2: Bulk Chemicals - A turning point in capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has been observed since the second half of 2025, with expectations for a new round of recovery in 2026 driven by domestic demand improvements and export support [3][54] - The supply-demand situation for bulk chemical products is expected to improve, with policies supporting supply optimization and demand recovery anticipated to lead to a new round of prosperity [9][54] Group 3: Chemical Products and Fine Chemicals - The recovery in demand for chemical products and fine chemicals is expected to continue, driven by growth in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, military, and electronics, alongside cost improvements in raw materials [4][54] - The chemical industry is likely to see ongoing development in new materials and technologies, with a focus on high-end supply enhancement as emphasized in national policies [4][24] Group 4: Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Petroleum (A/H), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H), and various chemical companies such as LUXI Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Wanhua Chemical, indicating their potential for value reassessment and growth [7][23][24]
11月18日晚间公告 | 先惠技术与宁德时代签订8亿合同;厦钨新能拟逾15亿投建年产5万吨高性能电池材料项目
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-11-18 11:59
一、复牌 四、日常经营、对外投资 1、盛新锂能:拟与华友控股集团签署锂盐产品合作框架协议,2026-2030年供应22.14万吨锂盐。 梦天家居:终止筹划发行股份及支付现金的方式购买资产,同时实控人终止筹划控制权转让事项,股票 复牌。 二、并购重组 盛帮股份:拟收购无锡沃可60%股权,预计构成重大资产重组;无锡沃可主要从事汽车内饰外饰橡塑产 品、发动机以及电驱电机相关总成件等研发生产业务。。 三、股权转让、回购 1、和顺石油:奎芯科技实控人陈琬宜协议受让公司1031.44万股股份,占比6%。 2、海大集团:拟以10亿元-16亿元回购公司股份。 7、祥和实业:拟购买和之祥5%股权。 8、孚能科技:增加全固态电池项目实施主体。 9、先惠技术:8月-11月签订近8亿元销售合同,加强与宁德时代深度合作。 晚间公告 *免责声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议 *风险提示:股市有风险,入市需谨慎 2、厦钨新能:拟出资6亿元设立全资子公司厦门沧海新能源材料,投资建设年产50000吨高性能电池材 料项目,项目预计总投资金额为15.25亿元。 3、洁美科技:控股子公司柔震科技与宁德新能源科技签署《合作开发框架协议》,双方就" ...