20251119申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 488.1 | 491.3 | 65.19 | 64.66 | 69.64 | 68.80 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 488.0 | 490.6 | 65.22 | 64.59 | 69.07 | 68.26 | | | 涨跌 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 0.54 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.02% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.83% | 0.79% | | | 成交量 | 234 | 88,721 | 240,484 | 155,928 | 210,514 | 4 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View - The report anticipates that the SHFE zinc contract ZN2512 will experience a weakening trend with oscillations. The previous trading day saw SHFE zinc decline with shrinking trading volume and reduced positions from both long and short sides, with more short - side exits. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators like KDJ are falling, and the trend indicator shows a decrease in bullish power and an increase in bearish power, though bulls still hold a slight edge [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. - The basis is +170 with the spot price at 22,480, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - On November 18, LME zinc inventories increased by 3,550 tons to 43,525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 74 tons to 76,787 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, also a neutral sign [2]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (November 18) - For the zinc contract 2512, the previous settlement was 22,440, the opening price was 22,460, the high was 22,465, the low was 22,265, the closing price was 22,310, and the settlement reference price was 22,350, with a decline of 130 and 90 respectively. The trading volume was 63,466 lots, and the trading value was 1.0445961 billion yuan. The open interest was 82,326 lots, a decrease of 9,124 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (November 18) - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,430 - 22,530 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton, averaging 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, averaging 22,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, averaging 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 6 - 17, 2025) - On November 17, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.62 million tons. Compared with November 10, it increased by 4,000 tons, and compared with November 13, it increased by 13,000 tons [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (November 18) - In Shanghai, the total warrants were 0 tons with no change. In Guangdong, the total was 41,061 tons, a decrease of 125 tons. In Jiangsu, it was 0 tons with no change. In Zhejiang, it was 0 tons with no change. In Tianjin, it was 35,726 tons, an increase of 51 tons. The overall SHFE zinc warrants were 76,787 tons, a decrease of 74 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (November 18) - There were multiple locations with varying inventory changes. For example, one location had a previous inventory of 39,975 tons, an inflow of 3,600 tons, and an ending inventory of 43,525 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [9]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Prices (November 18) - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in various regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and others showed a decline of 60 yuan/ton [11]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices (November 18) - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Muchuan Zhizhi, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 80 yuan/ton [14]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 18) - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade ore in different regions ranged from 2,400 to 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade ore was 90 - 110 US dollars/dry ton [19]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 18) - For the contract zn2512, in terms of trading volume, Dongzheng Futures ranked first with 24,837 lots, a decrease of 113 lots. In terms of long positions, Dongzheng Futures ranked first with 7,001 lots, a decrease of 1,555 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 15,106 lots, a decrease of 2,139 lots [20].

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 11/1 -200 -300 周度变化 21 31 -19 7 -1 -1 -31 -18725 3913 #N/A -1.0 20 -10 0 -50 57 22 2025 124 ·2019 -2024 -2021 -2022 -2025 2020 =2023 2019 -2024 -2025 -2021 =2023 ·2020 -2022 BU12-03 BU12-01 200 300 250 150 200 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 -50 67 N3 1/10 0/6 /1/ 0/27 /6 8/1 7 8 -100 -50 -150 -100 -200 2019 2019 -2021 2022 2024 2021 ·2024 2020 -2023 2025 2020 2022 2023 ·2025 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3300 4500 3250 3200 4000 3150 3100 3500 3050 3000 3000 2950 TW 2900 2500 2850 3/1 9/1 2/1 4/1 6/ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1210.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1710.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.43%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1167.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 3.55%；J2601 合约收于 1657.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 3.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，2025 年 10 月，全国生产粗钢 7200 万吨、同比下降 12.1%，日产 | | | | | 232.26 万吨/日，环比下降 5.2%；重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6369.16 万吨，同比下 | | | | | 降 6.7%，日产 205.46 万吨，环比增长 1.9%。 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 偏空 | 2、据国家能源集团，2025 年前 10 个月，国家能源 ...

Wolf Report is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with over 10 years of generating value ideas in European and North American markets. He is a contributing author and analyst for the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC where in addition to the U.S. market, he covers the markets of Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe in search of reasonably valued stock ideas. Learn moreAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in ...

Wolf Report is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with over 10 years of generating value ideas in European and North American markets. He is a contributing author and analyst for the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC where in addition to the U.S. market, he covers the markets of Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe in search of reasonably valued stock ideas. Learn moreAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in ...

需求端，瑞达期货（002961）指出，房地产行业作为玻璃的主要下游，其表现依旧低迷。从整体地产周 期来看，下行趋势尚未扭转。当前二手房价格持续下跌，市场信心不足，新房销售也面临较大压力。 11月17日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，玻璃期货延续跌势，主力合约价格再次临近1000关口， 跌幅达1.15%。 供应方面，金信期货分析称，供应端刚性犹存，全国浮法玻璃日熔量维持高位，虽部分产区有短期限 产，但新增产能释放与冷修减少支撑供应，难以形成有效收缩。 后市来看，广州期货表示，鉴于需求端旺季不旺的现实，后期年底赶工和下游补库等现象目前依旧很难 发生。库存同比仍高企，期现商库存难以出清，玻璃期货短期难有强势表现。后期若临近交割，依旧有 可能出现09合约的贴水交割的情形。但随着玻璃持续恶化，供应端偶尔有扰动，建议市场参与者逢高试 空，不盲目追空。 库存方面，11月14日玻璃企业库存录得6324.70万重箱，较上一交易日增加11.10万重箱。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investment is an expansion and realization of cognition, highlighting the importance of understanding both market dynamics and personal traits in trading [1] - Zhang Shensheng, a champion in a trading competition, has 14 years of experience in securities and 10 years in futures trading, advocating for a personalized trading system based on individual risk tolerance and emotional weaknesses [1] - The market is described as a complex system with inherent uncertainties, where understanding its operational logic is more crucial than predicting every price fluctuation [1] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis focuses on supply and demand as the decisive factors for price fluctuations, necessitating close attention to inventory cycles and their effects within the industry chain [2] - Risk appetite influences market hotspots, and appropriate investment choices can be made by analyzing policy directions, market environments, and price comparison effects [2] - Strategies for position management and stop-loss are essential; the goal is to let profits run while cutting losses to manage risks effectively and ensure survival in the market [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，11月主流在01贴水75附近商谈成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4610~4660附近。12月初在01-71有成交。今 日主流现货基差在01-75。中性 2、基差：现货4637，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.97天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA现货基差维持低位运行，贸易商活跃性降低，聚酯工厂递盘稀少，不过在成本端及印度取消BIS认证利好支撑 下，PTA现货价格整体偏强震荡，但加工差仍处低位，预计短期内跟随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情 ...