2025年12月17日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格震荡，国际金价基本收平。 基本面：11 月美非农数据 6.4w，好于预期，但是失业率飙升至 4.6%；美联储内部分歧严重，纽约联储总裁 威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息使其处于应对未来挑战的良好位置，并补充说，他认为随着就业市场降温， 通胀将会回落；费城联储主席表示通胀不再是最大敌人，就业下行风险更值得担忧，暗示支持降息；芝加哥 联储主席解释反对降息，表示应等待更多通胀数据；堪萨斯城联储主席解释反对降息理由是通胀过高。国内 黄金 ETF 小幅流入，COMEX 黄金库存为 1118.6 吨，-4.6 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1053.1 吨，+2.3 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14099.5 吨， -76.4 吨；上期所白银库存为 820.9 吨，+40.3 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16102 吨，+19.7 吨。伦敦 11 月白银库存增加 932 吨至 27183 吨；印度 ...

2025年12月11日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二美联储年内第三次降息，贵金属价格先抑后扬，银价逼近 62 美元/盎司。 | | | 金 | 基本面：美联储宣布年内第三次降息，同时宣布将购买短债，不过鲍威尔讲话被市场认为偏鸽，且 FOMC | 内 | | 属 | 部投票分歧加大，出现 3 张反对票，从点阵图看一人主张降 50 基点，七人支持按兵不动；鲍威尔强调，"下 | | | | 次会加息"不是任何人的基本假设，就业增长实际或被高估，自 4 月以来就业增长可能已经略微转负，劳动 | | | | 力市场仍在持续、逐步降温，可能只是比此前预期的降温幅度略微更温和一些。通胀方面，他表示关税影响 | | | | 明年料逐渐消退。国内黄金 ETF 出现流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1123，+0.3 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 | 吨， | | | 维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1046.8 吨，-1.2 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存 | | ...

并保留我公司的一切权利 分析师：吴剑剑 从业资格证号：F03132084 投资咨询证书号：Z0020830 免责声明： 本报告中信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述期货操作的依据。由于报告在撰写时融入了研究员个人的观点和见解以及分析方法，如与国联期货发 布的其他信息有不一致及有不同的结论，未免发生疑问，本报告所载的观点并不代表国联期货公司的立场，所以请谨慎参考。我公司及其研究员对使 用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告所提供资料、分析及预测只是反映国联期货公司在本报告所载明日期的判断，可随时修改，毋需提前通知。 任何机构和个人不得进行任何形式的复制和发布 如遵循原文本意的引用 黑色周报 20251207 | | 虚高的反噬 | | --- | --- | | | 1、黑色品种，特别是焦煤，交割压力得以充分体现，上月的虚高导致 | | 策略观点 | 了当前的反噬；2、螺纹热卷下方空间不大，但向上需要政策和情绪的 发酵；3、矿石的焦点在长协谈判对市场的影响，箱体特征显著；4、 | | | 玻璃现货下跌空间有限，但期 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand situations of each commodity and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price oscillated on Tuesday, with London gold blocked at $4150. Weak US economic data increased rate - cut expectations. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness gradually eased. Suggest gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price rose and then fell. December rate - cut is likely, and the market discussed the possibility of a dovish official becoming the next Fed Chair. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price rose by 0.40% to 21,465 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. Expected to maintain oscillating adjustment [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price fell by 0.33% to 2,727 yuan/ton. Supply had narrow fluctuations, and demand was high. Expected to show an oscillating and slightly bearish trend before large - scale production cuts [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton. Supply might decline in November, and demand was supported. The price was expected to move between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2605 contract price rose by 5.76% to 97,340 yuan/ton. Supply was high, and demand increased. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory data [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Near - month prices were anchored to the spot range. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Tin**: Price was oscillating and slightly bullish. December rate - cut was likely. Supply was tight, and demand was on - demand. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 3,097 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and supply - demand was weak. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for RB01 is 3,060 - 3,110 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 795.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price fell to 1,067 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for JM01 is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean prices rose slightly. Supply was contracting in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong. US soybeans were expected to be oscillating, and the domestic market's medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices were oscillating and slightly bullish. Supply was delayed due to weather, and demand was strong. However, new production was expected to increase. Suggest waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply pressure decreased, and short - term prices were slightly bullish but with limited sustainability. Expected to oscillate [7]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Palm oil prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price rose slightly. International prices might bottom - out in the long - term, and domestic pressure was high. Suggest shorting futures and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rebounded, and domestic prices rose. Suggest buying at low prices, with a strategy in the 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weaker in the near - term. Supply was abundant, and demand might increase seasonally. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price fell slightly. Supply pressure was rising but at a slower pace, and demand was weak. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [8][9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased in the short - term. PX was expected to be bullish in the long - term, and short - term PTA supply - demand improved. Suggest taking profits on long PX and short PTA processing - fee positions [9]. - **Rubber**: Price fell by 0.85%. Inventory increased. Expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PP**: Price fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was high, and inventory increased. Suggest shorting at high prices for the 01 contract and taking partial profits [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Price fell sharply. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Suggest holding short positions [10]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated slightly. Supply - demand improved in the short - term but might weaken later. Expected to oscillate, with upside limited by the import window [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - **Pork** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...