1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has a sufficient supply as the current inspection volume of new - cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB exports and more imports than exports at ports. As of December 4th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week, reaching a total of 387,600 tons, a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market. Overall, the demand margin is improving and the price center may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 155,603 lots, down 19,526 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 506 lots, down 256 lots. The main contract holding volume for cotton was 443,647 lots, down 30,671 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 20,500 lots, up 2,442 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 2,967 sheets, down 3 sheets; for cotton yarn, it was 12 sheets, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,800 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The 1% tariff - included China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM was 12,846 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the sliding - duty price was 13,873 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,038 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,211 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) was 5,787 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; for cotton yarn, it was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,131 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn was 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; for grey cloth, it was 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; for yarn, it was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 dollars, down 14,497,665,700 dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 112,584,189,200 dollars, down 7,080,970,800 dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.96%, up 2.38%; for at - the - money put options, it was also 13.96%, up 2.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.42%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From December 1st to 7th, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of hand - picked cotton was 6.6 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and up 0.02 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable at 6.86 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the March cotton futures contract up 0.26 cents, or 0.41%, at 64.12 cents per pound [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-26 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 棉价震荡偏上运行为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13625 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20070 | 5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -100315 | -2989 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -854 | 95 | | | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support from commercial buyers due to sufficient global cotton supply and increased concerns about US cotton supply pressure after the USDA's upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [1][4][18] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Although there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices at present, the high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures. Attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][18] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.76 | 65.96 | 63.72 | 64.14 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 214712 | 43347 | 155968 | 25922 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13570 | 13620 | 13435 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96 | 897294 | - 69357 | 556440 | - 19839 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19850 | 19930 | 19685 | 19695 | - 155 | - 0.78 | 66005 | 8241 | 23504 | - 1538 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton hit a six - month low this week. The global cotton supply is sufficient, and the import demand of major textile countries remains weak. After the USDA released a new monthly supply - demand report, ICE cotton fell below the October low due to the upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [4] - In the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the US cotton production was increased by 900,000 bales to 14.12 million bales, exports were increased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks were increased by 700,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with the stock - to - use ratio rising to 30.9%. Globally, the 2025/26 cotton production was increased by 2.4 million bales to 120.08 million bales, mainly in China, the US, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was basically unchanged, and ending stocks were increased by 2.79 million bales to 75.93 million bales [5] - As of the week ending September 25, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 35,200 tons, a 81% week - on - week increase and a 4% decrease from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 10,000 tons, all from China. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 982,000 tons, accounting for 37% of the annual forecasted total exports, and the cumulative export shipments were 247,900 tons, accounting for 25% of the annual total contracts [6] - In India, the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decline year - on - year, and it may become a net importer. Production is forecast at 30.5 million bales, consumption at 30 million bales, exports at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales [6] - In Brazil, the 2025/26 cotton production estimate was slightly lowered due to a slight reduction in the planted area estimate. In October, raw cotton exports reached 294,000 tons, a 64% increase from September and a slight increase from the same period in 2024. China and India were the main buyers [7] - In Pakistan, cotton import demand is very limited. Local observers predict cotton production of about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Import demand is mild, and the market activity has not recovered due to sufficient local cotton supply and weak downstream demand [8] - In Bangladesh, cotton import demand is restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit, limited financing channels, competition from low - priced imported yarn from India, and poor yarn sales profitability [8] - In Australia, cotton sowing has ended, and the crop is growing well. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity. In September, raw cotton exports were 175,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year decrease. China was the main destination [9] - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Domestic cotton spot prices have slightly declined, and trading is not very active. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream basis of cotton spot has remained stable, and the number of low - basis spot has decreased with transactions [10] - As of November 14, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 4401 lots, and the reported warehouse receipts were 643 lots, totaling 5044 lots, equivalent to 211,848 tons [11] - The downstream situation is stable but not improving further. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is dull, new orders are weakening, and spinning mills are digesting previous orders. The prices of pure - cotton yarn are mixed, and the spinning mill operating rate has slightly decreased while inventory has slightly increased. The trading in the cotton fabric market is divided, with limited new orders and weakening sales [12][13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., to help analyze the cotton market [15][16][17] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the cotton industry. Core Viewpoints - International market: The continuous absence of the Chinese import market has led to weak export demand for US cotton. The large number of unpriced buy orders at historical highs on the ICE market suppresses cotton price increases. In the short - to - medium term, ICE cotton prices are restricted. Although there is an expectation of improving the global inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2025/26 season, the upward push on cotton prices from a slight year - on - year production cut is limited without sufficient consumption support. Considering the relatively low price level and mainstream cost estimates, the downside space is limited, and there is a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center, subject to external macro - factors [3][80]. - Domestic market: In Q4, cotton prices are not optimistic, but caution is needed regarding the downside space. The record - high domestic new cotton production, early inspection and listing progress, weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment in Xinjiang, and cooling of foreign trade "rush to export" all limit cotton prices in the short term. However, in the long run, low commercial inventories and potential restocking demand from downstream textile enterprises and the US clothing market may drive cotton prices to "decline first and then rise," but the improvement in the price center may be conservative, and new - year industrial policies and foreign trade conditions need to be monitored [3][81]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of the Cotton Market in the First Three Quarters - Domestic market: In the first half of 2025, cotton prices showed a weakening trend due to loose supply and demand. The price was affected by Sino - US trade frictions. In the third quarter, prices fluctuated in a large range. Currently, the large supply of new - season cotton and weak downstream demand have led to a continuous decline in prices [9]. - International market: In the first three quarters of 2025, prices fluctuated between 60 - 70 cents per pound, with the amplitude affected by Sino - US trade wars. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persisted, and the large number of unpriced buy orders on the ICE market suppressed prices [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand 2.1 Global Supply and Demand Situation - According to the USDA September report, the global cotton inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 61.6%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. Global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 340,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons. Total trade volume is expected to be 9.52 million tons. The global ending inventory is expected to be 15.93 million tons, a four - year low [11][12][13]. - In terms of adjustment expectations, the possibility of a production cut in the 2025/26 global cotton output is low, and it may still see a slight increase. Cotton consumption is positively correlated with global GDP growth, but there is high uncertainty due to factors such as the global economic slowdown and Sino - US trade frictions [17][18]. 2.2 US Market Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 22, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants dropped to 47%, the boll - opening rate was 60%, and the harvesting progress reached 12%. The 2025 US cotton production is expected to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons [24]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative contracted export volume of US cotton for the 2025/2026 season was 925,000 tons, with a slow signing progress. However, there is still some elasticity in exports [27]. 2.3 Brazilian Market Supply and Demand Situation - Brazil's new cotton harvest is almost complete. The 2024/25 (corresponding to USDA's 2025/26) cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The export expectation is as high as 3.11 million tons, but the export volume in August 2025 was lower than in previous years [30]. Chapter 3: Domestic Cotton Market Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the Agricultural Rural Ministry and USDA data, there is a clear expectation of a bumper harvest in China's new cotton season in 2025/26. There is a view that consumption will weaken year - on - year. There are differences in the ending inventory expectations between the two institutions, but both expect a narrowing of the supply - demand gap compared to previous years [32][33]. 3.2 New - Season Planting - The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The national harvest progress as of the end of September was 1.5%, slightly faster than the same period last year. The large - scale harvest is expected to start in early October, and the peak listing time is postponed to late October. The expected opening price of seed cotton is low due to factors such as strong harvest expectations, low cottonseed prices, and weak "scrambling to purchase" sentiment [36][39]. 3.3 Import Scale - In August 2025, China imported about 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 40%. From January to August, the total import volume was about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. The total import volume of cotton resources from January to August was only 44.76% of the same period in 2024. Future imports are expected to increase slightly but will still be limited [42][43]. 3.4 Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventories - As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased to 1.2718 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased to 649,800 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 2.1481 million tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity was about 120,000 tons, all lower than the same period last year. The inventory of downstream finished products is slightly lower than the same period, and enterprises have no obvious intention to stockpile [50][53]. 3.5 Downstream Startup and Order Situation - As of September 30, the spinning mill startup rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill startup rate was 37.8%, both lower than the same period last year. The order days of spinning enterprises were 15.42 days, also lower than the same period. Spinning profits vary greatly across varieties and enterprises, and the clothing and textile industry is facing intensified losses [56][57]. 3.6 Domestic Retail and Regional Transactions - In August, the retail sales of clothing - related enterprises showed a mild recovery, but the growth rate was lower than that of gold and silver jewelry and the overall social retail level. The transaction volume of cotton cloth in the light - textile market increased seasonally but was lower than the same period last year [61][62]. 3.7 Clothing and Textile Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing decreased by 0.2%. In August, exports decreased by 5%. Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN showed different trends. The US clothing market started to restock slightly in the second half of the year, and there is still restocking space subject to Sino - US trade policies [68][72][76]. 3.8 Competitor Prices - The price difference between cotton yarn and staple fiber is at a medium - to - low level and shows a weak trend. The cotton market does not follow the chemical fiber market closely. In the long run, chemical fiber raw materials will continue to replace cotton [78]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook - International market: Short - to - medium - term ICE cotton prices are restricted, with limited downside space and a long - term expectation of a slight improvement in the price center [80]. - Domestic market: Cotton prices are under pressure in Q4 but may "decline first and then rise" in the long run, with conservative expectations for the improvement in the price center [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Bearish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry has a strong consensus on a bearish outlook for the future. In the fourth quarter, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly occurring in November. After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. In the long - term, the fourth quarter may be the period with the greatest domestic pressure, and the market in the next year is generally cautiously optimistic [5][30][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - To understand the production, cost, acquisition, consumption, inventory, and industry sentiment of cotton in Xinjiang, the researcher participated in the "2025 Autumn Xinjiang Cotton 'Full - industry Chain + Full - domain' In - depth Research" from September 7th to 19th. The research objects included cotton farmers, ginning factories, textile enterprises, and warehousing and logistics enterprises, mainly through enterprise discussions and on - site field inspections [14] 3.2 Research Summary - **New cotton production increase**: The expectation of new cotton production increase is strong, and the production forecast has been raised. The estimated production of Xinjiang cotton this year is between 730 - 780 tons, with a high probability of reaching 750 tons. The planting area has increased by 300 - 400 million mu (7% - 10%), and the average yield per mu has increased by 30 - 50 kg (5% - 10%) [17][18] - **New cotton quality**: The new cotton quality is expected to improve year - on - year. Although the lint percentage in some southern Xinjiang areas may decline, the overall quality of cotton in both southern and northern Xinjiang is better than last year [19] - **Opening time**: The opening time of cotton acquisition in southern and northern Xinjiang is close, expected to be concentrated around September 25th to the end of September, later than the previous market expectation but earlier than last year [20] - **Planting cost and income**: The planting cost has increased slightly year - on - year. The cost of leased land is about 3,000 yuan/mu, and the cost of self - owned land is about 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. The break - even yield per mu for leased land is 400 - 410 kg [21] - **Cottonseed price**: The cottonseed price has increased year - on - year. The pre - sale price in southern Xinjiang is 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/kg, and in northern Xinjiang is about 2.2 yuan/kg. During the peak acquisition period, the price may drop to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg, still higher than last year [22] - **Ginning factory**: Ginning factories are cautious in acquisition. In northern Xinjiang, due to years of losses, they have lost the ability and impulse to rush for cotton, and the over - capacity situation has been reversed [23][24] - **Cotton farmers**: Cotton farmers have low expectations for the cotton price, with a psychological expectation of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened [25] - **Warehousing inventory**: The inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang's warehousing enterprises is extremely low, while the industrial inventory of cotton spinning enterprises is relatively high, which can be connected to the large - scale listing of new cotton. However, some inland textile enterprises have tight inventories, and the shortage of high - quality cotton is prominent [26] - **New cotton pre - sale**: The pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton is large, about 150 tons. The pre - sale basis is high, but the actual execution rate is uncertain [27] - **Cotton spinning enterprises**: Xinjiang's cotton spinning enterprises have sufficient orders but shrinking profit margins. The growth of cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang will enter a bottleneck period [28] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Short - term**: In the fourth quarter, due to the large - scale listing of new cotton, the supply pressure and market sentiment will be concentratedly released. The futures price may fall below 13,000 yuan/ton, with the low point possibly in November. It is not recommended to short after the price falls below 13,000 yuan/ton due to the poor risk - return ratio [5][35][36] - **Long - term**: After the release of negative factors, downstream restocking will help stabilize the market. The overall market in the next year is cautiously optimistic [5][36] 3.4 Research Content 3.4.1 September 8th - Kashgar Region, Shache County - **Kashgar Youmian Experimental Base**: It promotes the modernization of the cotton industry. The expected yield per mu of the "Kashgar Youmian" demonstration field in 2025 is 630 kg, a year - on - year increase of more than 50% [41] - **Color Cotton Planting and Research Base**: It uses intelligent agriculture to increase yield. The current yield per mu is about 480 kg, and the lint percentage is 35% - 36% [41] - **Shache County Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area has increased from 800,000 mu last year to 1.1 million mu this year, and the yield per mu is expected to be higher than last year. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.3 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for spinning is below 7 yuan/kg [40][43] - **DW Group Xinjiang Shache Industrial Park Enterprise**: It has a total planned capacity of 4 - 5 million spindles. It only produces one variety, 32s, with high production efficiency. It uses cotton with double 29 indicators, mainly from southern Xinjiang, and has a good profit [45][46][48] 3.4.2 September 9th - Bachu → Tumushuke - **Bachu County Industrial Park Cotton - related Enterprise Symposium**: Bachu's cotton - spinning industry has developed rapidly. The planting area in 2025 is 1.66 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to increase to 410 - 420 kg. The total inventory of three warehouses is only 160,000 tons. The current cottonseed price is about 2.4 yuan/kg, and the expected acquisition price is 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [52][61] - **Bachu County Delivery Warehouse**: Some factories in Kashgar are purchasing hand - picked cotton for wadding. The expected production in Kashgar this year is 200,000 tons more than last year, but the lint percentage may be one point lower. The current inventory is 38,000 tons, much lower than last year [62][63] - **A Division's Enterprise Group Symposium**: The cotton planting area this year is 1.08 million mu, slightly increasing. The expected yield per mu has a small increase. The lint percentage may be 1 - 2 points lower, but the quality indicators are better than last year. The expected acquisition price of hand - picked cotton for wadding is 16,200 - 16,500 yuan/ton [67][68] 3.4.3 September 10th - Tumushuke → Alar - **A State - owned Textile Enterprise under a Division**: It has a current spinning capacity of 400,000 spindles, producing 24S and high - end yarns. The inventory of cotton yarn is about 1,000 tons, mainly sold in Xinjiang. The processing cost of 60s yarn is about 7,200 yuan, and the production profit is negative after including depreciation and financial costs [72][74][76] - **A Division's Enterprise Group**: The cotton planting area in the division is stable at 2 million mu, and the expected yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg. The expected acquisition price of seed cotton is about 6 yuan/kg. The enterprise is conservative in acquisition and uses hedging strategies. It is optimistic about the market next year [78][82][85] 3.4.4 September 11th - Alar → Shaya → Xinhe - **Alar Economic Development Zone Symposium**: The surrounding textile mills in Alar are operating well, but the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not obvious. The current textile capacity in Xinjiang is about 34 million spindles. The "Bing 9 Articles" policy provides subsidies for building factories and equipment in southern Xinjiang's four divisions [86][89] - **Shaya Cotton Industry Company**: The planting area in Shaya is 1.85 million mu, and the yield per mu is expected to be over 500 kg. The current price of cottonseed is 2.4 yuan/kg, and the pre - sale price is 2.3 yuan/kg. The enterprise is cautious in acquisition and follows large factories [95][96][98] - **Xinhe Cotton Industry Group Symposium**: The enterprise is a leading enterprise in Aksu. It believes that the acquisition price of seed cotton above 6.5 yuan/kg is risky, and it may fall below 6 yuan/kg in November [100][103] 3.4.5 September 12th - Tiemenguan → Korla - **Tiemenguan Textile Enterprise**: It will form a complete industrial chain from cotton to clothing. The current order volume is about 2,100 tons, and the inventory is about 560 tons. The enterprise uses more southern Xinjiang cotton, and the acquisition price may be slightly higher this year. The yarn market has limited downward space but lacks upward momentum [112][114][122]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a trend of weakening oscillations. Internationally, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate, while domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker [8][27]. - In September, as new cotton enters the acquisition period, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With high expected production in Xinjiang and low enthusiasm among ginning mills for acquisition, large - scale panic buying is not expected. There will be selling hedging pressure on the market as new cotton is listed in large quantities. Although the downstream demand has slightly improved in the peak season, the improvement is limited, and the boosting effect on the market is also limited [27][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and a high good - quality rate in the current fundamentals, the US cotton market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the flocculation rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. The growth was accelerating compared to the previous period, and the progress caught up with the five - year average [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of September 4, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 2.94 tons, a 47% weekly decrease and a 33% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 2.95 tons, a 16% weekly decrease and a 2% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 5, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1671 to 20121, a reduction of 40,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: According to the September 2024/25 production forecast by CONAB, the total cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 4.061 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - **India**: From September 4 - 10, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 66.1mm, 28.3mm higher than the normal level and 17.6mm higher than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 - September 10 was 849mm, 107.5mm higher than the normal level [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the USDA's August global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from the previous month. The total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Outlook**: As new cotton enters the acquisition period in September, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Supply Side**: The new - season cotton is growing well, maintaining a harvest expectation. As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of September 5, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4156 million tons, a decrease of 131,400 tons (8.49%) from the previous week [27]. - **Demand Side**: Although it has entered the peak demand season, the downstream demand change is not obvious. As of mid - August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, and the gray fabric inventory was 35.14 days. As of September 11, the mainstream spinning mills' operating load was 66.5%, a 0.76% increase from the previous week [27]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The HV on the previous day was 10.44697, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: The PCR on the previous day was 0.7370, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.7253. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton market will mostly oscillate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. It is recommended to short at high prices [45]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton gray fabric load, yarn inventory days, and gray fabric inventory days are provided, showing the mid - end situation of the cotton industry [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Historical data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are provided [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn, including the basis of different contract months and the basis of US cotton, is provided [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively bullish for the cotton market. Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 28,006 lots, an increase of 6,618 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 460 lots, a decrease of 70 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 502,082 lots, an increase of 10,790 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 18,718 lots, a decrease of 884 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,438 sheets, a decrease of 177 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 73 sheets, a decrease of 14 sheets. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,319 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,795 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, an increase of 13 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 50 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110 thousand tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 1,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.170 thousand tons, a decrease of 70.810 thousand tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73.5 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 44,419.8 thousand US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 11.13%, a decrease of 0.84%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11.12%, a decrease of 0.84%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.93%, an increase of 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.16%, an increase of 0.04%. [2] Industry News - National commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of September 12, 2025, total cotton commercial inventory is 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143.8 thousand tons (a decrease of 10.16%) from last week. - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the December contract down 0.43 cents, or 0.64%, at 67.25 cents per pound. - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 183 thousand tons; global ending inventory is expected to be 15.924 million tons, a decrease of 168 thousand tons. [2] View Summary - The 2025/26 global cotton output and consumption are expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market. - Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. [2]