交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price in 2026 is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. The international cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and the demand remains unoptimistic. The cotton supply and demand in China in the 2025/26 season are likely to be strong. Due to sufficient supply both internationally and domestically, there is a lack of upward drivers for cotton prices, but the downside space is limited. The cotton futures of both domestic and international markets are expected to continue the range - bound oscillation trend of 2025. [2][85][86] - It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy, combined with on - exchange and off - exchange option operations. [3][86] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Cotton Futures Market Review - In 2025, most of the time, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) cotton futures traded within a narrow range of 13,200 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and ICE cotton futures was generally low in 2025, and the pricing of domestic cotton futures became more independent. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and the Shanghai Composite Index was high at certain stages in 2025, indicating that the CZCE cotton futures were affected by external market sentiment. The basis of domestic cotton in 2025 was generally strong. [5][6] 2. 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 2.1 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply - The global cotton supply in 2026 is expected to be loose. The global cotton output in the 2025/26 season is at a relatively high level, mainly due to the significant increase in cotton production in China and Brazil for the second consecutive year. The supply of major cotton - exporting countries is expected to remain stable, but Brazil and the United States face greater export pressure. [13][14][24] - The planting intentions of major cotton - producing countries in 2026 need attention. Brazil's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is not expected to decrease, but if there is inventory backlog, it may affect future planting enthusiasm. The cotton - to - grain ratio in the United States is at a historical low, and U.S. cotton exports may affect the 2026 cotton planting area. India's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be slightly reduced, and it is necessary to pay attention to its textile and clothing exports and cotton imports. [29][35][40] 2.2 2026 Global Cotton Market Demand - The global cotton consumption outlook remains unoptimistic. The USDA estimates that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.88 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the 2024/25 season. The global textile and clothing trade volume in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, but there is a risk of a decline in global trade volume. The direct cotton demand of major textile - producing countries is restricted by weak terminal demand and operational difficulties of textile enterprises. [44][48][50] 3. 2026 China Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 3.1 2026 China Cotton Supply - The total cotton supply in China in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. China's cotton output in 2025 increased significantly for the second consecutive year. The cotton and cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase slightly. The initial inventory of cotton in the new season is low, and the supply pressure is postponed to after March 2026. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable. [57][58][61] 3.2 2026 China Cotton Consumption - The terminal textile and clothing consumption situation is not optimistic, but the direct cotton demand for textile production is expected to be stable. The continuous release of new textile production capacity will support the domestic cotton demand, but attention should be paid to the profit and inventory status of textile enterprises. [66][67][76]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Report Title**: 2026 Annual Resource Product Strategy Report [1] - **Report Institute**: Everbright Futures Research Institute [2] - **Report Date**: December 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE raw sugar futures price declined by 21.62% throughout the year due to the global sugar production entering a bumper - harvest cycle. The price fluctuated between 14 - 20 cents/lb [7][11]. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with an annual decline of 9.41%. The price of the main contract fluctuated between 5330 - 6200 yuan/ton [7][14]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: Globally, the 2025/26 sugar - making season has abundant supply. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a slight decrease in cane crushing volume but a 2.09% increase in sugar production due to a high sugar - making ratio. The estimated sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be flat or slightly higher. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 3435 million tons of sugar, with a net output of 3095 million tons after deducting ethanol production. In Thailand, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 1140 million tons of sugar, and exports are expected to return to 600 million tons. Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to recover, with an estimated output of 1170 million tons [8][19][50][70][90]. - **Demand**: Globally, sugar consumption is mediocre. Domestically, sugar consumption lacks highlights and has a weakening effect on price support [8][110]. - **Price**: Internationally, the raw sugar price is expected to operate at a medium - low level, with the main operating range between 13.5 - 19.5 cents/lb. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the main operating range of futures prices between 5100 - 5700 yuan/ton [8][111][113]. Group 3: Cotton Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE cotton futures price was affected by tariffs throughout the year, with the main contract price operating between 60.8 - 69.75 cents/lb. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was also affected by tariffs, with the main contract price operating between 12315 - 14375 yuan/ton [116]. 2026 Market Analysis - **International Market**: Macroeconomic disturbances continue, with supply slightly exceeding demand. Key factors to focus on include the interest - rate cut rhythm, geopolitical conflicts, US cotton exports, and new - year planting intentions. The estimated operating range of ICE cotton is 60 - 75 cents/lb [117][212]. - **Domestic Market**: The inflation data is gradually rising month - on - month. The 2026/27 cotton production may decline, providing support for cotton prices. The estimated operating range of domestic cotton futures prices is 13500 - 15500 yuan/ton [117][214]. Group 4: Urea Market 2025 Market Review - **Supply**: The industry's new production capacity in 2025 was 591 million tons, with the production capacity base exceeding 80 million tons. The annual output was about 7171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88%. - **Demand**: The annual consumption was about 6220 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. - **Price**: The futures and spot prices were at five - year lows, and the annual export volume was expected to be close to 500 million tons [218]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The industry's production capacity growth rate in 2026 will reach 10.82%, and the annual output may be close to 7600 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.82%. - **Demand**: Agricultural consumption is still the core area, with a growth rate of about 5% in 2026, driving the annual consumption to about 6834 million tons. - **Price**: The central operating range of urea futures prices in 2026 will continue to move down slightly, with the main operating range around 1650 ± 200 yuan/ton [219][295]. Group 5: Soda Ash and Glass Market 2025 Market Review - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity increased by 15.37%, the output growth rate slowed to 1.69%, the demand decreased by 2.88% to about 3422 million tons, and the export volume was expected to exceed 210 million tons. The main - contract futures price continuously reached new lows since listing. - **Glass**: The annual output was 5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 7%. The annual consumption was about 5600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. The futures price once reached a ten - year low [297]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity growth rate will slow down to 0.58%, the output will increase by 5.6% to 4100 million tons, the demand will decrease by 0.19% to about 3415 million tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 230 - 250 million tons. The central operating range of futures prices will move down to 1000 ± 200 yuan/ton. - **Glass**: The output will decrease by 2% to 5620 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 3% to about 5430 million tons, and the central operating range of futures prices is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [298].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has a sufficient supply as the current inspection volume of new - cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB exports and more imports than exports at ports. As of December 4th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% week - on - week, reaching a total of 387,600 tons, a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market. Overall, the demand margin is improving and the price center may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 155,603 lots, down 19,526 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 506 lots, down 256 lots. The main contract holding volume for cotton was 443,647 lots, down 30,671 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 20,500 lots, up 2,442 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 2,967 sheets, down 3 sheets; for cotton yarn, it was 12 sheets, unchanged. The China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,800 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The 1% tariff - included China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM was 12,846 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the sliding - duty price was 13,873 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,038 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,211 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) was 5,787 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; for cotton yarn, it was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The daily profit from importing cotton was 1,131 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn was 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; for grey cloth, it was 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 180 million meters; for yarn, it was 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 dollars, down 14,497,665,700 dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 112,584,189,200 dollars, down 7,080,970,800 dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.96%, up 2.38%; for at - the - money put options, it was also 13.96%, up 2.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.42%, down 0.01% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From December 1st to 7th, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of hand - picked cotton was 6.6 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week and up 0.02 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable at 6.86 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the March cotton futures contract up 0.26 cents, or 0.41%, at 64.12 cents per pound [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-26 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 棉价震荡偏上运行为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13625 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20070 | 5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -100315 | -2989 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -854 | 95 | | | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support from commercial buyers due to sufficient global cotton supply and increased concerns about US cotton supply pressure after the USDA's upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [1][4][18] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Although there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices at present, the high basis continues to support Zhengzhou cotton futures. Attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [1][18] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.76 | 65.96 | 63.72 | 64.14 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 214712 | 43347 | 155968 | 25922 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13570 | 13620 | 13435 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96 | 897294 | - 69357 | 556440 | - 19839 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19850 | 19930 | 19685 | 19695 | - 155 | - 0.78 | 66005 | 8241 | 23504 | - 1538 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton hit a six - month low this week. The global cotton supply is sufficient, and the import demand of major textile countries remains weak. After the USDA released a new monthly supply - demand report, ICE cotton fell below the October low due to the upward adjustment of US cotton production and ending stocks estimates for the 2025/26 season [4] - In the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the US cotton production was increased by 900,000 bales to 14.12 million bales, exports were increased by 200,000 bales, and ending stocks were increased by 700,000 bales to 4.3 million bales, with the stock - to - use ratio rising to 30.9%. Globally, the 2025/26 cotton production was increased by 2.4 million bales to 120.08 million bales, mainly in China, the US, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was basically unchanged, and ending stocks were increased by 2.79 million bales to 75.93 million bales [5] - As of the week ending September 25, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 35,200 tons, a 81% week - on - week increase and a 4% decrease from the four - week average. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 10,000 tons, all from China. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 982,000 tons, accounting for 37% of the annual forecasted total exports, and the cumulative export shipments were 247,900 tons, accounting for 25% of the annual total contracts [6] - In India, the 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decline year - on - year, and it may become a net importer. Production is forecast at 30.5 million bales, consumption at 30 million bales, exports at 1.7 million bales, and imports at 4.5 million bales [6] - In Brazil, the 2025/26 cotton production estimate was slightly lowered due to a slight reduction in the planted area estimate. In October, raw cotton exports reached 294,000 tons, a 64% increase from September and a slight increase from the same period in 2024. China and India were the main buyers [7] - In Pakistan, cotton import demand is very limited. Local observers predict cotton production of about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Import demand is mild, and the market activity has not recovered due to sufficient local cotton supply and weak downstream demand [8] - In Bangladesh, cotton import demand is restricted by difficulties in opening letters of credit, limited financing channels, competition from low - priced imported yarn from India, and poor yarn sales profitability [8] - In Australia, cotton sowing has ended, and the crop is growing well. As of November 12, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was 66% of the total capacity. In September, raw cotton exports were 175,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year decrease. China was the main destination [9] - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [9] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Domestic cotton spot prices have slightly declined, and trading is not very active. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream basis of cotton spot has remained stable, and the number of low - basis spot has decreased with transactions [10] - As of November 14, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 4401 lots, and the reported warehouse receipts were 643 lots, totaling 5044 lots, equivalent to 211,848 tons [11] - The downstream situation is stable but not improving further. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is dull, new orders are weakening, and spinning mills are digesting previous orders. The prices of pure - cotton yarn are mixed, and the spinning mill operating rate has slightly decreased while inventory has slightly increased. The trading in the cotton fabric market is divided, with limited new orders and weakening sales [12][13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., to help analyze the cotton market [15][16][17] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to continue to decline to find support. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the game around the delivery logic of the 01 contract after December [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].