周二（7月22日）纽约尾盘（周三北京时间04:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.1712元，较周一纽 约尾盘跌2点。 离岸人民币全天呈现出V形走势，日内整体交投于7.1684-7.1798元区间。 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) decreased by 0.50%, currently at 97.34 [1] - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) increased by 0.50%, currently at 1.1753 [1] - The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) also rose by 0.50%, currently at 0.6557 [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significant impact of currency exchange rates on various activities such as studying abroad, overseas travel, and cross-border e-commerce, highlighting that even minor fluctuations can lead to substantial financial differences [2][11] - The current exchange rate of GBP to CNY is 9.6149, which is relatively high, and parents planning to send their children to study in the UK should be cautious, as a previous case showed a loss exceeding 1000 GBP due to rising rates [3] - The USD to CNY exchange rate stands at 7.1498, and while it appears stable, it poses risks for foreign trade practitioners and online shoppers, with potential losses of thousands of yuan due to minor fluctuations [4] Group 2 - The EUR to CNY exchange rate is 8.3151, and despite slow economic recovery in the Eurozone, it remains strong, posing risks for those planning to shop or study in Europe, as evidenced by a previous loss of 1.5 million CNY due to a 0.15 exchange rate difference [5] - The JPY to CNY exchange rate is 4.8262, indicating a favorable time for travel and shopping in Japan, with significant cost savings compared to two years ago, making it an attractive option for consumers [5] - The AUD to CNY exchange rate is 4.6527, closely linked to commodity prices, suggesting that individuals planning to study or invest in Australia should monitor exchange rate trends to mitigate risks [7] Group 3 - The HKD to CNY exchange rate is 0.91092, showing minor fluctuations but still relevant for those investing or studying in Hong Kong, as small changes can lead to significant financial impacts [8] - The article concludes that while occasional shoppers may not feel the effects of daily exchange rate changes, those involved in large currency exchanges should set target rates to optimize costs [11] - Establishing a habit of monitoring exchange rates is crucial for managing finances effectively in a globalized economy [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The log market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have generally declined slightly this week. The futures market shows a high - level volatile trend, with the closing price of the main contract rising, and the monthly spread tends to narrow [4][15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of July 13, there were 19 vessels departing from New Zealand in July, among which 17 were bound for the Chinese mainland, and 2 were for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in July and 3 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Daily shipment volume**: As of the week of July 11, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 19,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters) [6][12]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.1808 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 18,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 506,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 410,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 217,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 21,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3147 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7,100 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trend - The log contract market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tends to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 3 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 9.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 6.5 yuan per cubic meter [15]. - As of July 18, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 6.0%. This week, the market showed a high - level volatile trend, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter compared with last week; the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu also remained unchanged; the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [4][19]. - **Regional spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spreads of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23][27] - **Tree species and specification spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, like the spreads between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [38][40][42] 3.5 Other - **Freight and exchange rate**: As of the week of July 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,052 points, a week - on - week increase of 389 points (23.4%); the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 673 points, a week - on - week increase of 4.3%; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,646.90 points, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0%. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [6][52][53]

周四（7月17日），韩元兑美元最终跌0.27%，报1391.83韩元。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 16, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, yields in different countries varied, e.g., the US was 4.483%, the UK was 4.624%, etc. - Latest changes ranged from -0.026% (France) to 0.048% (US). - One - week changes were between -0.008% (UK) and 0.082% (US). - One - month changes were from -0.012% (Japan) to 0.178% (Germany). - One - year changes were from -0.664% (Japan) to 0.500% (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.830%, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.023% (Italy) to 0.040% (US). - One - week changes: some data were missing, with others ranging from -0.037% (UK) to 0.074% (Australia). - One - month changes were from -0.028% (Italy) to 0.170% (US). - One - year changes were from -1.345% (Italy) to 0.432% (Japan) [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 15, 2025, the rate against the Brazilian real was 5.557, etc. - Latest changes were from -0.56% (Brazil) to 0.33% (South Korean won). - One - week changes were from -0.38% (Thai baht) to 2.00% (Brazil). - One - month changes were from -1.41% (South African rand) to 1.06% (South Korean won). - One - year changes were from -11.41% (Thai baht) to 1.77% (Brazil) [3] RMB Exchange Rates - On July 15, 2025, the on - shore RMB was 7.183, the off - shore RMB was 7.185, etc. - Latest changes were from 0.01% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.17% (off - shore RMB). - One - week changes were from -0.05% (RMB central parity rate) to 0.06% (on - shore RMB). - One - month changes were from -0.35% (RMB central parity rate) to -0.02% (RMB 12 - month NDF). - One - year changes were from -1.43% (off - shore RMB) to 0.29% (RMB central parity rate) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 15, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6243.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44023.290, etc. - Latest changes were from -1.15% (Spanish index) to 1.60% (Hang Seng Index). - One - week changes were from -1.45% (Spanish index) to 4.07% (Thai index). - One - month changes were from -0.34% (Mexican index) to 8.98% (South Korean index). - One - year changes were from -11.51% (Thai index) to 38.15% (Hang Seng Index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.24% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.11% (Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index). - One - week changes were from -0.34% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.18% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index). - One - month changes were from 0.16% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.31% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index). - One - year changes were from 4.75% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.83% (Emerging - market high - yield credit bond index) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares were 3505.00, CSI 300 was 4019.06, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.42% (A - shares) to 1.73% (ChiNext). Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 was 13.32, S&P 500 was 26.55, etc. -环比 changes were from -0.11% (S&P 500) to -0.01% (CSI 300). Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 was -0.72, German DAX was 2.15. -环比 changes were from -0.04% (S&P 500) to 0.04% (German DAX). Fund Flows - Latest values were from -1048.16 (A - shares) to -148.29 (CSI 300). - 5 - day average values were from -566.14 (A - shares) to -23.58 (CSI 300). Trading Volume - Latest values were from 798.06 (SSE 50) to 16120.48 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). -环比 changes were from -102.33 (SSE 50) to 1533.09 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets). Basis and Spread - Basis: IF was -38.46, IH was -13.03, IC was -10.56. - Spread: IF was -0.96%, IH was -0.47%, IC was -0.18% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - Closing prices: T00 was 108.890, TF00 was 106.025, etc. - Percentage changes were from -0.10% (T01) to -0.07% (TF00). Funding Rates - R001 was 1.5745%, R007 was 1.5877%, SHIBOR - 3M was 1.5590%. - Daily changes (BP) were from 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) to 5.00 (R007) [6]

Economic Growth - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, resulting in a 5.3% growth for the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations [1][7] - The GDP for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 660,536 billion RMB, with the tertiary sector contributing the most at 390,314 billion RMB, growing by 5.5% [3] Sector Performance - The tertiary sector accounted for 59.1% of GDP, driven by digital economy and consumption upgrades [3] - The secondary sector's value added was 239,050 billion RMB, growing by 5.3%, with high-end manufacturing (including new energy and semiconductors) as the core growth driver [3][9] - The primary sector contributed 31,172 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 3.7%, showing mixed performance in agricultural outputs [3] Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 RMB, with a nominal growth of 5.3% and a real growth of 5.4% after adjusting for inflation [3] Currency and GDP Conversion - The average exchange rate for the first half of 2025 was approximately 7.18 RMB per USD, leading to a GDP of about 919.47 billion USD [4][6] - The RMB depreciated slightly against the USD, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [6][9] Economic Resilience - Despite challenges from international trade tensions and domestic structural adjustments, China's GDP growth demonstrates resilience, particularly in the face of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [7][9] - The high-end manufacturing sector has shown robust growth, countering the downturn in traditional industries [9] Future Outlook - The economic performance in the first half of the year lays a solid foundation for achieving annual development goals, with expectations for continued stable growth in the second half [10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will maintain a "moderately loose" monetary policy in the second half of the year, focusing on risk balance in bond investments by small and medium-sized banks [2] - The central bank aims to support technological innovation and boost consumption through structural monetary policy tools [2] - The issuance of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds is part of efforts to stabilize investment and promote consumption [7] Group 2 - The financial data for the first half of 2025 shows a significant increase in M2 growth rate to 8.3%, indicating a solid support for the real economy [9] - The number of countries and regions with trade exceeding 50 billion yuan has increased to 61, reflecting a growth in China's trade partnerships [8] - The Beijing office market is experiencing a slight decrease in vacancy rates, with technology companies accounting for 30% of demand [11] Group 3 - NIO's stock surged over 10% following the launch of its new SUV model, the L90, which has received optimistic market expectations [20] - The global luxury market saw a record-breaking auction for a Hermès Birkin bag, selling for 7 million euros, highlighting the high demand for luxury goods [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with predictions from major financial institutions indicating a potential rise to 7.0 in the next 12 months and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, indicating a commitment to market-driven exchange rates [2][3]. - Since April, the yuan has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the dollar, surpassing the 7.15 mark, the highest since November of the previous year [4][17]. - Market sentiment has shifted positively, with institutions like Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raising their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy and becoming bullish on the yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The exchange rate is fundamentally determined by supply and demand; a stronger outlook for the yuan leads to increased demand for it [9][10]. - The interest rate differential between China and the US plays a significant role; currently, Chinese banks offer about 0.95% for one-year deposits, while US banks offer over 3%, making holding dollars more attractive [11][12]. - A narrowing interest rate gap between China and the US could enhance the attractiveness of the yuan, leading to its appreciation [13][20]. Group 3: Impact of Global Events - The US-China trade tensions and the recent decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 11 points over six months, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar [18][20]. - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also influenced the market, making the dollar less appealing [20][48]. - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, despite challenges, have provided a supportive backdrop for the yuan's strength [24][26]. Group 4: Challenges for Export Enterprises - The appreciation of the yuan poses challenges for export enterprises, as it reduces the amount of yuan received from dollar-denominated sales, potentially impacting profit margins significantly [30][31]. - Exporters may struggle to adjust prices quickly due to long contract cycles, leading to potential losses if the yuan appreciates rapidly [32][34]. - The rising yuan could diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese products in international markets, increasing export pressures [34][36]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Analysts suggest that the yuan's appreciation may have a lagging effect on exports, providing time for companies to adapt [39]. - The shift towards higher-value exports, particularly in technology and capital-intensive goods, may mitigate some negative impacts of currency appreciation [40][41]. - Companies are encouraged to explore new markets and enhance product competitiveness to navigate the challenges posed by currency fluctuations [50][56].

中国经济的真实图景：超越美元幻象 国际媒体上充斥着"中美差距扩大"、"越南超越中国"的论调，与中国GDP持续攀升、预计2025年突破140万亿元人民币的现实形成鲜明对比。这种矛盾的表 象背后，隐藏着哪些真相？让我们抽丝剥茧，从数据中寻找答案。 2025年，中国GDP预计达到140万亿元人民币，比2023年增长超过10万亿元，相当于再造一个山东省的经济规模！这听起来令人振奋，然而，将这一数字换 算成美元，却呈现出截然不同的景象：中美GDP差距非但没有缩小，反而扩大了。 2024年中美GDP差距为X美元，预计2025年将扩大到Y美元，一年间差距 增加了近Z美元。 为何中国经济高速增长，美元账面却显示落后？这其中的奥秘，在于汇率和通胀这两个关键因素。 首先，汇率波动扮演着重要角色。2025年上半年，人民币兑美元平均汇率为A，较2024年的B有所贬值。仅此一项，就使中国GDP的美元换算值"缩水"了 1600亿美元。 如果仍采用去年的汇率计算，140万亿元人民币可折算成C美元，但在新的汇率下，则只能折算成D美元。这就好比手里的一堆钞票，兑换能 力因汇率变化而降低。 2022年：中国PPP GDP为T美元，领先美国约U美 ...