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人民币汇率中间价调贬22基点报7.0572
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-22 01:53
同日,在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率小幅走贬。截至当日9时35分,在岸人民币对美元报 7.0412,日内贬值幅度为0.01%;离岸人民币对美元报7.0341,日内贬值幅度为0.01%。 北京商报讯(记者 廖蒙)12月22日,中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布,当日银行间外汇市场 人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0572元,相较前一交易日中间价7.0550元,调贬22基点。 ...
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251221
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-21 08:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week. The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were flat compared to last week, with a regional price difference of 10 yuan/cubic meter. Other specifications also showed no price changes [4]. - The market saw a low - level rebound in the futures market, and the port inventory decreased. As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 14, there were 20 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 7 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 5 in January, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.54 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 3,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2918 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 396,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 173,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 125,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9872 million cubic meters, a decrease of 125,500 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow this week. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7.5 yuan/cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of December 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2023.00 points, a decrease of 182 points (- 8.3%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 746 points, a decrease of 7.3% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1552.92 points, an increase of 3.1% from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.042, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.9% to 1.737 [6][55].
今年,我国GDP能达到20万亿美元吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-20 12:40
年关将近,又有网友询问南生:2025年的中国GDP能达到20万亿美元吗? 最近两个月来,CPI走势略有好转,叠加之前的基数影响,不难推算:2025年全年的中国经济实际增长率为5%左右,名义增长率在3.95%至4%区间。 从而得知:我国2025年的GDP大约为140.3万亿元左右,按平均汇率换算成美元为19.64万亿,达不到20万亿美元。 南生给出的结论是达不到,无法完成了,并预测我国GDP将扩大至140.3万亿元人民币左右,按年度平均汇率折算成美元在19.64万亿左右。 理由如下: 截止到2025年12月19日,我国人民币与美元的平均汇率为7.1463,也就是平均接近7.15元人民币才能兑换1美元。 后面只有8个工作日了,不会对年度平均汇率产生过大的影响,我们按当前走势推算:人民币在2025年与美元的日均中间价平均汇率大约为7.1433。 再看各季度的GDP走势:第一季度,我国名义GDP为318758亿元人民币,与上年同期的304761.8亿元相比,名义增长4.6%,实际上涨5.4%,通缩依然存在。 第二季度,我国GDP按现价计算为341777.8亿元,上年同期为328837.6亿元,名义增长率接近4%,实际 ...
美元指数:12月19日涨0.06%收于98.425
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 22:41
本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【12月19日美元指数上涨,多种货币汇率有变动】12月19日,衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数上涨 0.06%,汇市尾市收于98.425。截至纽约汇市尾市,1欧元兑换1.1725美元,低于前一日的1.1745美元;1 英镑兑换1.3386美元,高于前一日的1.3378美元。此外,1美元兑换155.52日元,低于前一日的155.63日 元;兑换0.7940瑞士法郎,低于前一日的0.7953瑞士法郎;兑换1.3781加元,低于前一日的1.3789加元; 兑换9.2846瑞典克朗,低于前一日的9.2984瑞典克朗。 本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.19 04:42:15 周五 美元指数:12月19日涨0.06%收于 98.425 【12月19日美元指数上涨,多种货币汇率有变动】 12月19日,衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数上 涨0.06%,汇市尾市收于98.425。截至纽约汇市尾 市,1欧元兑换1.1725美元,低于前一日的1.1745美 元;1英镑兑换1.3386美元,高于前一日的1.3378美 元。此外, ...
英国降息,瑞典、挪威不跟
21世纪经济报道· 2025-12-18 12:49
同日,据中国基金报,瑞典央行宣布维持政策利率在 1.75% 不变,符合市场预期。无独有 偶,当日挪威央行宣布将政策利率维持在 4% 不变。 值得注意的是,欧洲央行将于北京时间21:15公布利率决议,市场预计欧洲央行将维持基准利 率不变。 (声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。) 来源丨财联社、新华财经、公开信息 编辑丨曾静娇 康师傅换帅,创始人43岁儿子接棒,去年薪酬约937万 存储迎史上最强涨价周期,两大牛股年内涨近400% 贵州茅台出资10亿入股省级银行 SFC 21君荐读 10年期英国国债收益率从之前的4.449%升至4.492%。英镑兑美元汇率从之前的1.3353升至盘 中高点1.3394。 此外,交易员下调对英国央行的降息押注, 预计明年降息39个基点。 另据新华财经报道,经济学家丹·汉森与安娜·安德拉德预测, 下一次降息或推迟至2026年4月 ,届时利率将降至3.5%,并可能标志着政策立场基本回归中性。 据财联社,12月18日,英国央行将基准利率从4.00%下调至3.75%, 符合市场预期 ,此前该行 暂停了自2024年8月以来每季度降息一次的节奏。 英国央行表示,货 ...
美元兑印度卢比延续跌势 卢比外部主导贬值逻辑未变
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 07:04
分析指出,2025年以来卢比的持续走弱主要受外部因素驱动,而非印度国内经济基本面恶化。 关于卢比未来走势,市场观点存在分歧。印度国家银行(SBI)在其最新报告中预测,卢比有望在2026 年10月至2027年3月期间实现强劲复苏。但澳新银行则强调,在印美贸易协议取得实质性进展前,卢比 仍可能面临进一步贬值压力。Nim指出,印度央行未来的外汇干预力度将成为决定汇率路径的关键变 量,而从2027财年起,通胀水平也将成为评估卢比竞争力的重要指标。 澳新银行(ANZ)研究部策略师Dhiraj Nim在报告中指出,卢比已成为今年亚洲表现最弱的货币之一, 主因包括美国对印度商品加征高额关税以及外国投资组合资金大规模外流。 (文章来源:新华财经) 亚洲交易时段盘中,美元兑印度卢比延续隔夜跌势。该货币对在17日早盘触及91.10的历史高点后迅速 回落,盘中最低下探至89.93,最终报收于90.39,创下两个月来最大单日涨幅。 数据显示,印度11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比仅上涨0.7%,远低于央行设定的4%通胀目标区间下 限。不过,央行预计2026年第一季度通胀将回升至2.9%。同期,GDP增速预计将从2025年第三季度的 ...
大类资产早报-20251217
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 01:25
Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - Latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.146, UK 4.518, France 3.547, Germany 2.844, Italy 3.542, Spain 3.280, Switzerland 0.277, Greece 3.422, Japan 1.952, Brazil 6.168, China 1.844, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.727, New Zealand 4.452 [1] - Latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.488, UK 3.759, Germany 2.132, Japan 1.059, Italy 2.248, China (1Y yield) 1.380, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.019 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.468, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 16.759, South Korean won 1473.200, Thai baht 31.522, Malaysian ringgit 4.086 [1] - Latest exchange rates of the Chinese yuan: on - shore 7.043, off - shore 7.036, mid - price 7.060, 12 - month NDF 6.909 [1] - Latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6800.260, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48114.260, Nasdaq 23111.460, Mexican index 63230.870, UK index 9684.790, French CAC 8106.160, German DAX 24076.870, Spanish index 16921.900, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 49383.290, Hang Seng Index 25235.410, Shanghai Composite Index 3824.812, Taiwan index 27536.660, South Korean index 3999.130, Indian index 8686.469, Thai index 1260.680, Malaysian index 1648.310, Australian index 8880.633, emerging - economy index 1352.660 [1] - Latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade 3533.650, euro - zone investment - grade 265.441, emerging - economy investment - grade 290.080, US high - yield 2898.000, euro - zone high - yield 409.250, emerging - economy high - yield 1817.098 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3824.81, down 1.11%; CSI 300 closing price 4497.55, down 1.20%; SSE 50 closing price 2954.79, down 1.08%; ChiNext closing price 3071.76, down 2.10%; CSI 500 closing price 7001.32, down 1.58% [2] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 13.77 (down 0.12), SSE 50 11.52 (down 0.09), CSI 500 31.86 (down 0.49), S&P 500 27.16 (down 0.09), German DAX 18.65 (down 0.12) [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.46 (up 0.04), German DAX 2.52 (up 0.04) [2] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1087.65, 5 - day average - 674.95; main board latest value - 777.32, 5 - day average - 496.24; small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available); ChiNext latest value - 214.64, 5 - day average - 136.24; CSI 300 latest value - 147.68, 5 - day average - 96.94 [2] Group 3: Transaction Data and Other Market Information - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 17241.73, down 492.66; CSI 300 latest value 3905.00, down 338.83; SSE 50 latest value 1033.24, down 78.10; small - cap board latest value 3381.18, down 25.44; ChiNext latest value 4461.76, down 206.17 [3] - Main contract basis and basis ratio: IF basis 1.85, basis ratio 0.04%; IH basis - 3.39, basis ratio - 0.11%; IC basis 8.88, basis ratio 0.13% [3] - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 107.91, up 0.03%; TF2303 105.80, up 0.01%; T2306 107.92, up 0.02%; TF2306 105.80, up 0.01% [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.3448%, down 17.00 BP; R007 1.5003%, down 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5950%, up 1.00 BP [3]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-12-15 04:54
#行情 在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续刷新14个月以来新高。 ...
12月利率大概率按兵不动,欧洲央行政策转向仍需观察窗口
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 01:05
市场普遍预期12月议息会议将维持利率不变。近期发布的多项数据显示,欧元区经济虽仍面临外需疲弱 与企业投资谨慎等压力,但通胀已从年初高位明显回落至11月的2.2%,核心物价继续降温,经济景气 指标也出现阶段性改善。 欧元兑美元的汇率近期整体于1.15-1.17范围波动。巴克莱银行全球外汇策略主管西莫斯·菲奥塔基斯表 示,实际上,欧元的实际价值远比表面看起来要高得多,贸易加权与关税调整后衡量,实际欧元强度远 高于名义水平。他认为从贸易加权的角度来看,欧元正处于历史高位,如果考虑到美国关税,欧元汇率 甚至更接近1.28美元。 从贸易角度看,分析人士指出,强势欧元意味着进口商品和服务变得更便宜,这直接降低了欧元区内部 的物价水平,有助于将整体通胀率拉回到欧洲央行2%的目标之下。同时,进口成本下降有利于消费, 缓解家庭与企业成本压力,这在当前通胀温和、经济复苏基础尚存的背景下,对内需构成支持。 最新数据显示,欧元区9月份对华贸易逆差为330亿欧元,这一数据引起欧洲市场的普遍担忧。市场认 为,对华市场出口逆差与强势欧元结合,会给欧元区带来显著的通缩压力,并可能对欧元区的出口竞争 力造成负面影响,从而迫使欧洲央行考虑降息。 ...
印度卢比兑美元汇率跌破90.4675,触及历史低点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-12 03:46
每经AI快讯,12月12日,印度卢比兑美元汇率跌破90.4675,触及历史低点。 ...