Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core View - Palm oil is undergoing a high - level adjustment due to concerns about rising domestic and foreign inventories. Production growth and weak demand are pressuring prices, but India's pre - Diwali inventory replenishment will support prices. The resistance level is seen at 9,500. Rapeseed oil is affected by abundant domestic supply and policies. The Sino - US talks have no clear results, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is pending. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period, and far - month basis can be appropriately bought. Oils are oscillating strongly, with each variety being hyped in rotation recently, so risk control should be noted [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the offer price of rapeseed oil traders and the basis price of soybean oil are given, and the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in East China is P09 + 60 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory concerns, with a resistance level at 9,500. For rapeseed oil, focus on far - month ship purchases. It is advisable to buy far - month basis as the basis of domestic three major oils has limited downward adjustment space. Pay attention to risk control as oils are oscillating strongly with variety rotation [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From July 1 - 25, production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 6.08% and OER down 0.1%. Exports decreased by 8.53% month - on - month to 684,308 tons, and exports to China dropped from 145,000 tons to 58,000 tons [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, due to a surge in exports, inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% month - on - month increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against the ringgit and the RMB [10][18][22][25][29]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 8492, opening price 8450, high price 8490, low price 8412, closing price 8466, down 26 (-0.31%), volume 445676, open interest change -3164 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8498, opening price 8452, high price 8488, low price 8420, closing price 8468, down 30 (-0.35%), volume 46546, open interest change 3486 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7968, opening price 7936, high price 7940, low price 7862, closing price 7894, down 74 (-0.93%), volume 308543, open interest change -22325 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7958, opening price 7930, high price 7930, low price 7872, closing price 7902, down 56 (-0.70%), volume 81936, open interest change 19354 [7] - OI2509: Previous settlement price 9614, opening price 9590, high price 9608, low price 9512, closing price 9548, down 66 (-0.69%), volume 265206, open interest change -16717 [7] - OI2601: Previous settlement price 9547, opening price 9522, high price 9549, low price 9451, closing price 9492, down 55 (-0.58%), volume 36194, open interest change 3884 [7] - Quotes from Dongguan rapeseed oil traders: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 60, single - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 240. Basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single - refined soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509 + 220, October - January Y2601 + 300. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 150 yuan/ton, real orders subject to negotiation [7] Oil and Fat Review - Oil and fat prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpectedly reduced production and strong exports. China's domestic oil and fat supply - demand is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, during the off - season of domestic oil and fat consumption, oil and fat inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil and fat price spread shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. If crude oil and US soybean oil weaken, the short - term trend of domestic oil and fat will be under pressure. Attention should still be paid to the progress of US tariff policies [8] 2. Industry News - Reuters survey: Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, production is 1.7 million tons (down 4.04% month - on - month), and exports are 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's estimated data shows that June production is 1.74 million tons, exports are 1.44 million tons, and inventory is 2 million tons [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 is estimated to be 1.69 million tons (down 4.69% month - on - month). Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased 0.68% month - on - month, production in Sabah decreased 11.95% month - on - month, production in Sarawak decreased 8.98% month - on - month, and production in East Malaysia decreased 11.24% month - on - month [9] - Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 decreased 0.65% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased 0.23%, and oil extraction rate decreased 0.08% [9] - Shipping survey agency SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.195265 million tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to 1.069643 million tons in May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to 132,000 tons in the same period last month. ITS exports were 1.382 million tons (up 4.7% month - on - month), and AmSpec data was 1.286 million tons (up 4.5% month - on - month) [9][10] 3. Data Overview - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season by over 500,000 tons to a record 168.75 million tons due to higher production in Bahia state [15] - As of July 4, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6.4 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 1.5 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in July 2025 is 11.3 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons (7.32% month - on - month) compared with the forecasted arrival volume of 10.5 million tons last month, and an increase of 1.9 million tons (20.86% year - on - year) compared with the arrival schedule of 9.3 million tons in the same period last year [15]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is weak, but it is unlikely to fall significantly further. The high-frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production growth and an improvement in export data, and the pace of inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, which will take effect on August 1. The supply and demand of domestic oils and fats in China is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and the increase in palm oil arrivals, it is the off-season for domestic oil and fat consumption, the inventory of oils and fats continues to increase, and the basis is under pressure. The price difference of oils and fats shows a pattern of near-term weakness and long-term strength, and reverse spreads are the main strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), single rapeseed oil 09+240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single soybean oil: spot: Y2509+230; June - July: Y2509+250; July - September: Y2509+260; October - January: Y2601+350. The price of 24-degree palm oil at East China ports is P09+430 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - On June 25 (Wednesday), the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for July, reducing the export tax to 8.5%, at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [9] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.55% month-on-month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 0.25% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month-on-month [9] - Data from the Southern Malaysia Palm Oil Growers Association (SPPOMMA) showed that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of palm oil in southern Malaysia increased by 2.5% month-on-month, among which the yield per bunch of fresh fruit increased by 2.67% month-on-month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.03% [9] - Shipping survey agency ITS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 25 were 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the 1,061,589 tons exported from May 1 - 25. Among them, exports to China were 104,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to 107,000 tons in the same period last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China's third-grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China's fourth-grade soybean oil, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 price difference, the P5 - 9 price difference, the P9 - 1 price difference, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [13][15][20][21][26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Core Views - Palm oil led the decline in the oil and fat sector. The main contract P2509 decreased with increasing positions, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The price may further decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 7800. The latest MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May rose to the highest level in 8 months. Although the strong exports offset part of the growth in production and imports, the market expected the palm oil inventory to rise above 2 million tons, so the report was slightly positive for palm oil. The export data in the first 10 days in Malaysia were good, which supported the market, but the future increase in production and inventory would bring pressure, and the medium - and long - term price center would move down [8]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the domestic crushing profit deteriorated. The support at the 9000 level was strong in the short term. Later, focus on the results of China - Canada negotiations and the growing weather of new - season rapeseed in Canada [8]. - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continued to pressure the market. Pay attention to the recent soybean import and crushing situation. The improvement of the supply situation might bring pressure to soybean oils. As the factory's soybean oil inventory continued to increase, the spot basis quotation was still under pressure, which would drag down the market, and it was expected to decline in shock. One could continuously short out - of - the - money call options. In the short term, the overall supply of oils and fats was sufficient, lacking upward drivers [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y2509+200; August - September: Y2509+230; October - January: Y2601+280. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at East China ports was P09 + 440 yuan/ton (limited to road transport), P09 + 380 yuan/ton for June shipment, and P09 + 400 yuan/ton for July shipment. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at Dongguan factories was 09+320 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short out - of - the - money call options for soybean oils [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 327,355 tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to May 1 - 10 [10]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 13,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 285,578 tons, an increase of 32.7% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 10,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last month [15]. - As of June 10, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6 million tons, compared with 7.5 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month was 3.5 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival of imported soybeans in June 2025 was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared to the previous month's forecast of 10.1 million tons, a month - on - month change of 4.36%, and an increase of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 5.70% [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing price, basis, spread, and exchange rate data of various oils and fats, including East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and the exchange rates of US dollar against Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan [13][14][16]

Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Analysts: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - MPOB's latest data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an eight - month high. Strong exports only offset part of the increase in production and imports. The report is slightly positive for palm oil. Malaysia's export data for the first 10 days of June is good, supporting the market, and palm oil continues to fluctuate. [7] - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada have restarted negotiations, there are few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis are strong, and the 9000 level has strong short - term support. [7] - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continues to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation may bring pressure to soybean and oil products. [7] Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - **Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: July - September: 09 + 260; October - January: 01 + 320; April - June: 05 + 280. Guangdong market first - grade soybean oil spot price: Dongguan: Y2509 + 260. East China port 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 440 yuan/ton (truck transport only), June shipment P09 + 380 yuan/ton, July shipment P09 + 400 yuan/ton. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries, as well as soybean imports and crushing. [7] Industry News - **Malaysia Palm Oil Data**: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; and the end - of - month inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. [8] - **Malaysia Palm Oil Export in June**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, a 26.4% increase compared to the same period in May. According to AmSpec, exports were 327,355 tons, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period in May. [8] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 365,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week; the contract volume was 24,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sales**: As of June 6, 2025, Brazilian farmers had sold 64% of the expected 2024/25 soybean production (about 110.35 million tons). This is lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and 76.9% of the five - year average. Due to factors such as weak global prices and high logistics costs, farmers' overall sales willingness is conservative. [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, and P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against Ringgit and Renminbi. [14][15][23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. However, the US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Meanwhile, Canadian canola has been relatively strong in April due to good crushing demand and low inventory. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [3][44][45]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [3][44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK-US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [3][45]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since April, the overall oil and fat sector has been fluctuating weakly. Palm oil has been the weakest due to the arrival of the production increase season and poor export demand. In the domestic market, at the end of April, the palm oil 09 contract fell 522 to 8,148 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.14%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 122 to 7,832 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 142 to 9,297 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.5%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 401 to 3,910 ringgit/ton, a decline of 9.3%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.59 to 48.97 cents/pound, an increase of 7.91%; the ICE canola active contract rose 82.5 to 693.6 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 910 to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.42%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 190 to 8,070 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 40 to 9,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% [8]. - In early April, palm oil first soared and then fell sharply. The soaring was mainly due to the US biodiesel policy boosting the demand for US soybean oil, which drove the overall oil and fat market up. However, as the palm oil producing regions entered the production increase season, supply gradually increased, and the US tariff policy raised concerns about the global economic outlook. The sharp decline in crude oil prices drove the oil and fat market down, causing palm oil to fall rapidly. From mid - to late April, palm oil entered a wide - range oscillation. After the sharp price decline, the buying interest of demand countries like India and China increased, and the increased bargain - hunting purchases supported the market, while the production increase cycle suppressed it. After the May Day holiday, the domestic market made significant adjustments. With production increasing more than expected and export demand not as optimistic as expected, coupled with the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy, palm oil oscillated weakly [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The monthly data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.0055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; imports were 121,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; and the ending inventory was 1.5626 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, in line with expectations, and the overall report was neutral [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 14.50%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.48%, and palm oil production increased by 17.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from April 1 - 30, 2025, increased by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 28.06%, the production in East Malaysia increased by 20.76%, the production in Sabah increased by 24.07%, and the production in Sarawak increased by 11.37%. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, from May 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and palm oil production increased by 60.17% [27]. - According to the data of shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 825,309 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,874 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 1,120,747 tons, an increase of 54,270 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.09%. According to the data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1,087,133 tons, an increase of 37,879 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 3.61% [28]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia's palm oil production in February 2025 was 3.79 million tons, 3.828 million tons in January, 4.25 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 3.87 million tons. The total production from January - February 2025 was 7.62 million tons, compared with 8.89 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, Indonesia's palm oil exports in February 2025 were 2.8 million tons, 1.96 million tons in January, 2.17 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 2.34 million tons. The total exports from January - February 2025 were 4.76 million tons, compared with 4.98 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in February 2025 was 2.25 million tons, 2.94 million tons in January, and 3.26 million tons in February 2024 [31]. 2.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in March 2025 were 970,000 tons, an increase of 9.48% compared with 886,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 1.15 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.05 million tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, the total vegetable oil imports were 5.64 million tons, compared with 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [33]. - For different oils, India's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 425,000 tons, an increase of 13.64% compared with 374,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 485,000 tons, and the five - year average was 520,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's palm oil imports were 2.42 million tons, compared with 3.53 million tons in the same period last year. India's soybean oil imports in March 2025 were 355,000 tons, an increase of 25% compared with 284,000 tons in February. In March 2024, soybean oil imports were 219,000 tons, and the five - year average was 270,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 1.91 million tons, compared with 880,000 tons in the same period last year, showing a significant increase. India's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 191,000 tons, a decrease of 16.23% compared with 228,000 tons in February. In March 2024, sunflower oil imports were 446,000 tons, and the five - year average was 250,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 1.31 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons in the same period last year [34]. 2.5 China's Oil Imports - Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 170,000 tons, 100,000 tons in February, 160,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 224,000 tons. The cumulative palm oil imports from January - March 2025 were 390,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons in the same period last year. China's rapeseed oil imports in March 2025 were 344,000 tons, 236,000 tons in February, 195,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 161,000 tons. The cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January - March 2025 were 732,000 tons, compared with 520,000 tons in the same period last year. China's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 39,000 tons, 42,000 tons in February, 126,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 111,000 tons. In 2025, sunflower oil imports were 131,000 tons, compared with 412,000 tons in the same period last year. In total, the imports of the above three major oils in March 2025 were 553,000 tons, 378,000 tons in February, 481,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 496,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils from January - March 2024 were 1.253 million tons, compared with 1.483 million tons in the same period last year [36]. 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - According to data from My Agri, as of the week ending May 2, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 626,800 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 231,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 356,100 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 103,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 795,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 434,500 tons compared with the same period last year [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. The US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [44]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK - US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [45].