金十数据7月31日讯，美联储偏好的核心通胀指标在6月加速上升，达到今年以来最快的增速之一，而消 费者支出几乎没有增长，突显出导致决策者在利率走向问题上产生分歧的因素。周四公布的数据显示， 剔除食品和能源价格的"核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数"较5月上涨0.3%。同比上涨2.8%，反映出 过去一年抑制通胀的进展有限。数据显示，经通胀调整后的消费者支出在6月略有回升，而5月则出现下 滑。这些数据表明，经济中的拉扯作用让美联储官员在货币政策的走向上产生了分歧。一方面，通胀方 面的进展基本上停滞不前，央行官员担心特朗普总统的关税将给物价带来更大的上行压力。另一方面， 由于就业市场疲软而导致的消费者支出缩减可能会导致经济整体放缓。 美国关键通胀指标上升 而消费者支出近乎停滞 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：过去几年消费者支出一直非常强劲，现在可能终于放缓了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S., highlighting that while consumer confidence has shown signs of recovery, the long-term effects of tariffs are likely to lead to increased inflation pressure as pre-tariff inventories are depleted [1][8]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, marking a 5-month high, but remains 16% lower than before the Trump administration [1]. - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, while consumer spending on debit and credit cards grew by 7% and 4% respectively in Q2 compared to the previous year [4][5]. - Despite these positive indicators, Wells Fargo warns that consumer spending is not as robust as previously thought, with households reducing discretionary service spending [4][5]. Group 2: Discretionary Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has shown a concerning decline, with a 0.3% drop noted in May, and a contribution of only 0.3 percentage points to GDP in the first quarter, the lowest since Q2 2020 [5][7]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for essential goods over discretionary items, as evidenced by shopping behavior during Amazon's Prime Day, where essential items were prioritized [6][7]. Group 3: Tariff Policy Effects - The effective tariff rate currently stands at 20.6%, the highest since 1910, yet inflation data does not reflect significant price increases due to tariffs [8][9]. - Key factors mitigating the impact of tariffs include declining energy prices and the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, which has kept inflation in a downward trend [8][10]. - Import behavior has shifted, with a significant increase in imports prior to tariff implementation, leading to a stockpiling effect that has buffered immediate price impacts [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, with various economic indicators showing mixed performance and a general contraction trend [2][10]. - Low-income households are particularly vulnerable, as they are quickly exhausting pandemic savings and facing rising debt levels, which could lead to a significant impact on overall consumer spending [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed stable performance with major indices entering a consolidation phase after consecutive gains, driven by strong economic data and corporate earnings, despite rising concerns over potential tariffs on EU goods [1][3]. Economic Data - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey indicated a significant drop in short-term inflation expectations, with one-year inflation expectations falling from 5% in June to 4.4% in July, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, signaling a healthy job market, following a period of increased claims earlier in the spring [6][7]. Corporate Earnings - Netflix reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations but failed to excite the market, leading to a decline in its stock price due to high valuation concerns [4]. - American Express delivered strong earnings, indicating robust spending among high-end consumers, which supports the overall economy [5]. Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached historical closing highs, bolstered by strong economic data and corporate earnings, while concerns over tariff policies temporarily eased consumer confidence worries [3][4]. - Despite the positive economic indicators, uncertainties remain regarding trade policies and the potential impact on market stability, particularly with the looming decision on tariffs against EU imports [4][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that American Express CEO indicates that consumer spending in the U.S. remains stable [1] Group 2 - The company highlights that despite economic uncertainties, consumer confidence is holding up, which supports ongoing spending [1] - American Express reports strong performance metrics, suggesting resilience in the consumer sector [1] - The CEO emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing consumer behaviors and preferences in the current market [1]

Core Points - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs driven by strong retail data and a decrease in initial jobless claims [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.52% to 44,484.49 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.75% to 20,885.65 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.54% to 6,297.36 points [2] Economic Data - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, reversing a 0.9% decline in May [4] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, rose by 0.5%, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% in May, indicating a moderate slowdown in consumer spending [4] - Among 13 major retail categories, 10 experienced growth, with auto sales rebounding after two months of decline [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims fell for the fifth consecutive week to 221,000, the lowest level since mid-April, indicating resilience in the labor market [5] Cryptocurrency Legislation - The U.S. House of Representatives passed three significant cryptocurrency bills, including the "Genius Act," aimed at major regulatory reforms for cryptocurrencies [7] - The "Clarity Act," which establishes a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, was also passed and will be reviewed by the Senate [8] - President Trump is preparing to open alternative investments, including cryptocurrencies, to the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market, which could fundamentally change savings management for Americans [8] Oil Market - International oil prices rose due to positive U.S. economic data and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East [10] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery increased by $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel, a rise of 1.75% [10] - Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose by $1 to $69.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.46% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a slight increase, approaching historical highs, driven by a rebound in June retail sales that alleviated concerns about consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market is nearing historical highs, indicating positive investor sentiment [1] - June retail sales data showed a significant rebound, suggesting that consumer spending remains robust [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The strong retail sales figures indicate that the narrative of a "consumer demise" is greatly exaggerated, according to Northlight Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer [1] - Fund managers are contemplating what factors could lead the S&P 500 index to break out of its recent narrow trading range ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of Trump's tariff policies, U.S. consumers continue to spend actively, with June retail sales showing a surprising rebound, alleviating concerns about consumer spending tightening [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.1% and reversing a decline of 0.9% in the previous month [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose by 0.5%, against an expected increase of 0.3% and a prior decrease of 0.2% [4]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline also saw a 0.6% increase, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Insights - In June, 10 out of 13 major retail categories experienced growth, with automotive sales rebounding after two months of decline, indicating strong consumer spending on key goods [3][6]. - The "control group" retail sales, which directly contribute to GDP calculations, also rose by 0.5% month-over-month, leading to a year-over-year growth of 4.0%, further confirming the resilience of consumer spending [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The strong retail sales data contrasts with previous "soft data" surveys that reflected pessimistic sentiment, suggesting that actual consumer spending behavior is more positive and robust than perceived [7]. - Adjusting for inflation, the estimated "real" retail sales have shown year-over-year growth for nine consecutive months, indicating that U.S. consumers' purchasing power remains on an upward trend despite rising prices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive rebound in U.S. retail sales may alleviate concerns regarding a decline in consumer spending [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Out of 13 retail categories, 10 experienced growth, indicating a broad recovery in the sector [1] - Automotive sales rebounded after a period of decline, serving as a major driving force behind the retail sales increase [1] - Restaurant spending, the only service category included in the report, grew by 0.6%, contributing to the overall positive trend [1] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - There has been a general pessimism among Americans regarding the economy and their financial situation, exacerbated by tariffs and ongoing cost-of-living pressures [1] - Recent reports indicate a rebound in consumer confidence, providing a more optimistic outlook amidst previous concerns about consumer health [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]