Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has entered a confirmed bear market, with significant sell-offs and a decline in institutional interest, leading to a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion since early October [1][5][7] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin fell below $100,000, dropping approximately 4% overnight to below $98,000, marking a decline of over 20% from its historical high of $125,000 [1] - Year-to-date, Bitcoin's increase has narrowed to less than 7%, suggesting a potential "tail-off" in what was expected to be a record year [3] - The current market sentiment is deteriorating, with predictions indicating a key support level for Bitcoin around $93,000 [5] Group 2: Institutional and Retail Dynamics - Major investment funds, ETF allocations, and corporate Bitcoin reserves are withdrawing, undermining the support that previously bolstered Bitcoin's price [1][5] - There is a significant increase in demand for protective put options below $100,000, indicating heightened concern among traders [6] - The stock of Strategy, a company synonymous with retail Bitcoin investment, has seen a dramatic decline, erasing billions in market value as investor interest wanes [5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that previous bear markets have resulted in declines of 30% to 40%, with Bitcoin already down over 20% from its 2025 peak without signs of a sustainable rebound [6][7] - 10X Research highlights that Bitcoin is currently trading below its long-term moving averages, indicating a loss of momentum [7]

Group 1 - The report discusses the emergence of active bond yield spreads, defined as the difference in yields between newly issued bonds (active bonds) and older bonds, primarily due to the liquidity premium associated with new bonds [7][18]. - It identifies three key patterns observed since 2016 regarding the trading volume and transaction amounts of 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds, highlighting that the trading volume of new bonds is significantly higher than that of older bonds [7][18]. - The report notes that the trading volume of 30-year government bonds has increased significantly since 2024, indicating a growing institutional interest in ultra-long bonds [7][18]. Group 2 - The report analyzes the convergence patterns of active bond yield spreads, noting that after each switch of active bonds, the yield spread typically exhibits an inverted "V" shape, initially widening before gradually narrowing [27][31]. - It emphasizes that the speed and extent of convergence can vary under different market conditions, influenced by the behavior of trading and allocation participants [31][34]. - The report suggests that in a low-rate environment, allocation demand drives the market, leading to a "hold" mentality that increases prices and decreases yields on older bonds, potentially resulting in negative yield spreads [34][42]. Group 3 - The report proposes a trading strategy based on the active bond yield spread, recommending a "long old bonds, short new bonds" approach, while considering borrowing costs and potential returns during the convergence of yield spreads [45][49]. - It estimates that the borrowing cost for this strategy is approximately 40 basis points, and the active bond yield spread needs to be around 5 basis points to cover these costs [45][49]. - The report concludes that the active bond yield spread trading strategy remains profitable, with the maximum yield spread observed since 2023 being around 9.8 basis points [45][49].

Market Trend Analysis - The report indicates that the Bitcoin bull market has ended and a bear market has begun [1] - The bear market is currently at 7.97% completion, representing the 29th day out of 364 days [1] Future Prediction - The previous bull market's peak is estimated to have occurred on October 6, 2025, with a Bitcoin price of $126,000 [1] - The analysis is based on the "four-year cycle theory" and the anticipation of Bitcoin halving [1]

Core Viewpoint - 大成基金在2023年至2024年的熊市期间表现优异，但在牛市中未能跟上节奏，导致其权益产品年内收益排名靠后 [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - 大成基金在熊市期间的主动权益绝对收益为7.99%，在24家大中型公募中排名第一 [1] - 今年初至9月底，大成基金的主动权益收益在同类基金中排名倒数第二，超额收益垫底 [1] - 截至11月2日，大成基金的收益率为15.35%，在188家机构中排名第87位 [1] Group 2: Fund Composition - 大成基金旗下股票型基金平均收益为25.44%，业内排名第85位；混合型基金平均收益率为21.67%，排名第117位 [1] - 根据三季报，首席权益投资官徐彦在管产品完成建仓，新成立的大成兴远启航混合基金的权益资产配置为股票，占基金总资产的60.89% [1] - 大成兴远启航混合基金成立于今年3月，符合偏股混合型基金最低六成权益仓位的要求 [1]

今天是熊市的第 29 天（29/364）。杀破狼 WolfyXBT (@Wolfy_XBT):比特币的牛市已经结束了，目前已经进入熊市。本轮牛市的牛顶落在 2025/10/06，比特币价格为 126,000。我也不希望唱空自己的事业，但是根据 “四年周期理论”，比特币价格确实已经见顶，我只想把这个事实转达给更多这个周期入圈的新人。在我看来，“比特币减半” https://t.co/FNrd6lkUA8 ...

Cryptocurrency Investment Education - Recommends introductory videos for beginners in the cryptocurrency space, covering topics such as buying cryptocurrency with New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), understanding cryptocurrency finance, blockchain transfers, perpetual contracts, and grid trading [1] - Provides referral links for cryptocurrency exchanges like Bitopro, Max, OKX, Binance, Pionex, and Bitget, offering fee reductions (20%) [1] - Lists useful websites for cryptocurrency news and data, including Coindesk, The Block, Cointelegraph, PA News, Odaily, Chainee, Deep Tide, Chain News, BlockTempo, Blockcast, Zombit, Fear & Greed Index, Stablecoin data, Bitcoin ETF data, and economic calendars [1] Market Analysis & Trends - Discusses the bear market sentiment and potential market drivers such as the US-China trade war and government shutdowns [1] - Mentions the listing of a Solana spot ETF and the status of Ethereum staking ETFs [1] - Highlights MicroStrategy's debt rating and Ethereum treasury selling pressure [1] - Refers to Standard Chartered's prediction of on-chain growth to $2 trillion by 2028 [1] Regulatory & Policy Updates - Mentions the progress of the CLARITY Act and the appointment of a new CFTC chairman [1] - Notes a senator's suggestion to buy cryptocurrency to address national debt [1]

Market Trend Analysis - The analysis suggests the Bitcoin bull market has ended and a bear market has begun [1][2] - The peak of the recent bull market was projected around October 6, 2025, with a Bitcoin price of $126,000 [1] Theoretical Framework - The "four-year cycle theory," driven by Bitcoin halving, is considered the most reliable cycle theory in the cryptocurrency space [1] - This theory divides a Bitcoin bull-bear cycle into four phases: "bull start," "halving," "bull end," and "bear market" [1] Cycle Dynamics - "Halving" events precede "bull start" phases, and follow "bull end" phases [1] - "Halving day" occurs during the "mid-section" of the overall bull market [1] - "Bull start" and "bull end" phases have approximately equal durations [1] - A one-year "bear market" follows the "bull end," preceding the next "halving day" and subsequent "bull start" [1]

Group 1 - The article reviews historical bull markets in China and their ending reasons, highlighting the concerns of investors regarding the sustainability of the current bull market [3][4] - The bull market from 1996 to 2000 ended due to high valuations, policy shifts from supporting the market to regulating it, and an oversupply of stocks following state-owned share reductions [3][4] - The 2005-2007 bull market was characterized by simultaneous high economic growth and stock market performance, driven by currency appreciation and a favorable economic environment [3][4] Group 2 - The 2014-2015 bull market was fueled by interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in bank stocks and subsequently other sectors, but ended due to regulatory tightening and external currency pressures [4][5] - The article suggests that the end of the A-share bull market is closely related to policy changes, with a current need for a bull market to stimulate the economy and manage local government debt [6][7] - The relationship between A-shares and the USD exchange rate is emphasized, indicating that a strengthening USD could lead to capital outflows from China, potentially ending the bull market [7]

Group 1 - The breakthrough of the 3000-point mark in the A-share market is seen as a significant psychological barrier, indicating a shift in market sentiment rather than just a numerical value [1][2] - The long-term critical level to watch is 3587 points, which, if sustained, would suggest that major players have accumulated enough shares for a potential market rally [2][4] - Historical patterns indicate that after significant bear markets, substantial bull markets typically follow, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles rather than timing [4][6] Group 2 - The end of a bear market is characterized by a significant price drop (40%-75%), sufficient duration (often 3-4 years), and a "crazy bear" phase, which has not yet been fully realized in the current market [6] - Current market conditions suggest that A-shares are unlikely to return to the low levels seen at the end of last year (around 2400 points) due to ongoing foreign investment and MSCI index inclusion [6][11] - The MSCI inclusion process is gradual, with a 5% increase in A-share inclusion each quarter, translating to approximately 150 billion yuan in market value being purchased [7][9][11] Group 3 - The total scale of domestic index funds is around 700 billion yuan, and the quarterly MSCI inclusion represents about 20% of this total, indicating a significant impact on the market [11] - Short-term fluctuations in A-shares may occur, but they are expected to remain within a range of about 10% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes historical bull markets in China, identifying key reasons for their end and drawing parallels to the current market situation, suggesting that the ongoing bull market may continue due to supportive policies and favorable economic conditions [3][6]. Historical Bull Markets Analysis - The bull market from 1996 to 2000 ended due to several factors: the end of deflation, a shift in policy focus from stimulating the economy to regulating development, excessive stock supply from state-owned enterprises, and a crackdown on speculation [3][4]. - The 2005-2007 bull market was characterized by a depreciating dollar and appreciating RMB, leading to a revaluation of RMB assets, alongside a period of simultaneous high growth in both the stock market and the economy [4]. - The 2014-2015 bull market was driven by interest rate cuts from the central bank, which lowered risk-free returns, leading to a surge in bank stocks and subsequently lifting the broader market. However, it ended due to regulatory tightening and external economic pressures [4][5]. Current Market Conditions - The current bull market is seen as necessary for boosting the economy, addressing local government debt, and attracting global capital into technology innovation [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy is crucial; a shift from easing to tightening could signal the end of the bull market [7]. - The relationship between the RMB and USD exchange rates is highlighted, with RMB appreciation during USD depreciation leading to increased demand for RMB assets, while the opposite could result in capital outflows [7]. - Historical financial crises in the U.S. may impact China's bull market, but recent decoupling trends suggest that a U.S. crisis could benefit Chinese markets as capital flows away from Wall Street [7]. - Currently, with ample liquidity from the central bank, supportive policies, and a depreciating dollar, there are no clear signals indicating the end of the bull market [7].