Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with a significant inflow of funds into stock ETFs, indicating renewed investor interest and confidence in the market [2][4]. Fund Inflows - On October 15, stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 8.8 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of positive inflows in October, totaling over 80 billion yuan [2][4][9]. - The leading sectors attracting investment include technology, rare earths, banking, and securities, with the Hang Seng Technology ETF alone seeing nearly 9.5 billion yuan in inflows [4][5]. ETF Performance - As of October 15, the total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 4.59 trillion yuan, with 49 ETFs recording net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][5]. - The top three ETFs by net inflow on that day were the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF, and the Huatai-PB Dividend Low Volatility ETF, each with inflows exceeding 700 million yuan [4][5]. Sector Analysis - The banking sector saw a net inflow of 1.36 billion yuan, while the rare earth sector attracted 1.27 billion yuan [4][5]. - Conversely, certain sectors such as internet, ChiNext, and healthcare ETFs experienced significant outflows, with the top three losing nearly 1.4 billion yuan collectively [9][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that October may serve as a critical window for policy and earnings verification, with structural opportunities and volatility expected to coexist [10]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to reinforce the logic of profit-driven investment, particularly in technology and resource sectors [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while the A-share market may face short-term pressure, the overall risk is manageable, and the market focus is expected to return to domestic fundamentals [1] - The policy direction is likely to accelerate the construction of a "self-controllable + internal circulation" system, focusing on key technology breakthroughs, supply chain enhancements, and energy security [1] - Key sectors such as high-end manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, new materials, and new energy are expected to benefit from the policy focus on technological independence and domestic demand-driven growth [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index (931643), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting 50 emerging industry stocks with good liquidity and market capitalization from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards [1] - The index samples focus on hard technology and mature innovative enterprises, reflecting the technological barriers and growth performance of China's frontier industries [1]

发言人 1: 好，行。 发言人 2: 好，那我们现在开始倒数，5、4。 发言人 3: 各位投资者朋友，大家上午好！欢迎来到一周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。上周一，您正处中 秋假期，所以我们暂停一周。原本，经历了在北京、上海一系列调研、政策研讨之后，我 们今天定的标题是前瞻四中全会之后的市场。和经济，但是也是计划赶不上变化。过去三 四天，大家又感受到了中美之间博弈的新一轮波澜壮阔的变化。所以我想今天的标题就是 中美博弈和四中全会下的市场和经济。特别是这一轮新的博弈，稀土。如何演绎？这里面 我们有一些对短期的考量和长期中国战略性的抉择的一些路径的判断。 当然我们的首席策略师 Laura 也会讲具体一点，市场现在该怎么操作。当然，回归到之前 我们定的主题，由于有了新一轮的中美的变数，包括关税等其他非关税壁垒，所以接下来 的三个重要的时间点，10 月下旬的四中全会、12 月中旬的中央经济工作会议、明年 3 月 份。所有的四中全会和中央经济工作会议制定的大纲转化为数字，转化为具体政策目标。 这三个事件分别可能会针对中美的新一轮博弈。做出怎样的变化和影响。那我们今天也有 宏观团队的蔡志鹏博士，会继续的分析。 当然大家也注意到了 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and six other departments have issued an implementation plan to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation, emphasizing the need for enhanced new-type information infrastructure and the integration of "5G + industrial internet" [1] - The MIIT Minister highlighted the importance of implementing national major science and technology projects and key R&D plans, aiming to attract innovation resources to enterprises [1] - A recent article by HSBC's Chief Investment Officer for Asia suggests that innovations like DeepSeek are reshaping international investors' perceptions of China's tech capabilities and asset values, potentially accelerating the application and commercialization of AI across various industries in China [1] Group 1: Policy and Infrastructure - The implementation plan includes tasks to strengthen new-type information infrastructure and promote the integration of AI technology with service-oriented manufacturing [1] - The focus is on building computing power infrastructure based on demand and enhancing the overall efficiency of the manufacturing innovation system [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The AI sector is expected to benefit from favorable industrial policies, with a positive outlook for AI promoters and adopters in industries such as internet, e-commerce, software, smartphones, semiconductors, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots [4] - Increased capital expenditure related to AI applications and commercialization is anticipated to benefit these sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the implications of Trump's announcement to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1, which has triggered significant market reactions and a shift in investor sentiment compared to previous trade conflicts [3][14]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Changes - On October 10, the S&P 500 index dropped by 3.5%, resulting in a loss of $2.5 trillion in market value within six hours, while the cryptocurrency sector saw over $19.1 billion in liquidations, marking a record in the industry [3][14]. - The current market panic is notably less severe than in April, with the VIX fear index rising to only 22 compared to 60 in April, indicating a fundamental shift in investor perception regarding the U.S.-China trade dynamics [3][14]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in U.S. and China - China has transitioned from a "passive defense" strategy to "active countermeasures," focusing on accelerating technological independence and implementing strict export controls on rare earth materials [5][9]. - The U.S. has intensified its technology restrictions, adding 23 Chinese semiconductor companies to its entity list and requiring licenses for exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, aiming to disrupt China's technological advancements [6][9]. Group 3: Key Observational Nodes - Four critical observation points are identified: the APEC summit on October 31-November 1, the implementation of U.S. tariffs on November 1, the full enforcement of China's rare earth controls in December, and U.S. soybean inventory data in mid-November [20][21]. - These nodes are expected to influence market sentiment and provide insights into potential negotiation outcomes between the two countries [20][21]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - Short-term opportunities focus on sectors like rare earths, semiconductors, and agricultural safety, with an emphasis on companies that can benefit from China's countermeasures [23]. - Mid-term strategies should consider companies aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and those showing strong Q3 performance, particularly in AI and advanced technologies [24]. - Long-term investments should target AI infrastructure, robotics, and semiconductor equipment, as the ongoing trade tensions will continue to shape the technological landscape [25].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 3900-point mark, with a notable increase in trading activity, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1][3] - The three major indices are all in the green, with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index slightly up by 0.06% [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and storage chip sectors are particularly strong, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% and ZhiChun Technology hitting the daily limit [3] - The storage chip sector is also performing well, with Jiangbolong increasing by over 17%, and other companies like Baiwei Storage and Xiangnong Chip Innovation nearing 10% gains [3] - The energy metals sector is benefiting from the recovery of the new energy industry chain, with companies like Boqian New Materials hitting the daily limit and others like Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt rising nearly 7% [3] Market Dynamics - There is a rotation of funds from large financial sectors, which are experiencing declines, to more growth-oriented sectors like technology and new energy, indicating a normal market rotation rather than a downturn [4] - The increase in trading volume, reaching 136.98 billion, suggests that market sentiment is gradually warming, with over 2900 stocks rising, reflecting broad market participation [3][4] - The focus on technology (semiconductors and storage) and new energy industry chains aligns with long-term investment logic, emphasizing the importance of following industry trends rather than chasing short-term speculative opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on September 30, with the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) rising by 1.35% and trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF has seen consistent capital inflow, with net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 trading days, accumulating over 900 million yuan [1] - As of September 29, the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF reached a record high in both circulation shares at 3.469 billion shares and circulation scale at 4.852 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which includes mainland companies listed in Hong Kong engaged in technology [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include leading technology stocks such as SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi Group-W [1] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a net purchase of 43.959 billion HKD in the last week and a total of 1,153.689 billion HKD year-to-date, surpassing last year's total [1] Group 3 - Haitong Securities noted that the impact of major overseas events during the National Day holiday on the Hong Kong stock market is expected to be limited, suggesting a strategy of holding stocks through the holiday [2] - Guotai Junan highlighted the attractiveness of Hong Kong technology assets amid the AI-driven tech cycle, which continues to draw incremental capital inflows [2] - Western Securities remains optimistic about domestic AI computing and overseas chain sustainability, focusing on investment opportunities in AI hardware and the revaluation of Hong Kong tech companies [2]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw significant gains, with notable increases in companies such as GDS Holdings up 16.6%, Daqo New Energy up 12.6%, and Alibaba maintaining around a 10% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 2%, led by Hua Hong Semiconductor and followed by SMIC and Alibaba [1] - Xiaomi officially announced the global launch of its 17 series featuring the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor, which boasts a peak frequency of 4.6GHz and significant power efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its structural rise, supported by the US-China summit and improved sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on the technology sector driven by AI demand [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) rose 1.65%, with component stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and Xiaomi Group showing strong performance [2] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index excludes sectors like pharmaceuticals and automobiles, focusing on TMT industries, with major weights in AI leaders such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [2] Group 3 - As of September 24, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached a record size of 5.034 billion yuan, marking the highest since its inception [3] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 12 days, with a peak single-day inflow of 325 million yuan, totaling 785 million yuan in net inflows [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF represents a shift from "Internet" to "AI+" within the hard technology sector [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility on September 25, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.17% [1] - The Hong Kong Tech 30 ETF (513160) increased by 0.99%, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan and a premium rate of 0.24% [1] - Key components of the ETF, such as Kingsoft Cloud, Ubiquiti, and China Software International, saw gains of over 4%, while Huahong Semiconductor and ZTE also rose [1] - The ETF has experienced significant capital inflow, with net inflows on 9 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling over 720 million yuan [1] - The ETF's circulating scale reached a record high of 4.588 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Alibaba Cloud announced a partnership with NVIDIA in the field of Physical AI during the 2025 Hangzhou Cloud Summit [2] - The integration of NVIDIA's Physical AI software stack into Alibaba Cloud's AI platform PAI will enhance services for enterprises, including data preprocessing and model training [2] - By 2032, Alibaba Cloud's global data center energy consumption is expected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant rise in computing power investment [2] - Analysts from Western Securities and Guotai Junan Securities expressed optimism about the domestic AI computing chain and the ongoing capital expenditure expansion cycle in emerging industries [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the stock index (centered on the Shanghai Composite Index) will consolidate in the short term and show a clear upward trend in the long term. Attention should be paid to the traction of structural forces on the index weights [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Press Conference Core Points: Policy Signals from "Achievement Summary" to "Reform Deepening" (1) Five - year Report Card of "Stable Quantity and Improved Quality" in the Capital Market - **Mature institutional system**: With the new Securities Law as the core, relevant regulations have been implemented, and the legal foundation for the capital market has been solidified [2]. - **Deepened multi - level market**: Reforms in the Sci - tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and the high - quality expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange have improved the multi - level market system, with 964 futures and options varieties covering major industries [2]. - **Coordinated investment and financing functions**: In the past five years, equity and bond financing totaled 57.5 trillion yuan, and the direct financing ratio increased to 31.6%. Over 90% of newly listed companies are technology - related, and the market value of the technology sector in A - shares exceeds 1/4 [2]. - **Enhanced market resilience**: The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 15.9%, and the total market value of A - shares increased by 10 trillion yuan in the past year [4]. - **Effective supervision**: Fines for illegal activities increased by 30% compared to the "13th Five - Year Plan", and regulatory measures such as delisting and mergers have maintained market order [4]. (2) Expansion of the "Circle of Friends" in Reform and Opening - up: Full - chain Breakthroughs from the Financing End to the Investment End - **Investment end**: By the end of the month, long - term funds held 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [5]. - **Financing end**: The registration system has been fully implemented, and reforms on the Sci - tech Innovation Board have improved resource allocation efficiency [5]. - **Quality of listed companies**: Dual - wheel drive of information disclosure and governance, and active mergers and acquisitions have improved the overall quality of listed companies [5]. - **Open end**: Foreign ownership restrictions have been lifted, and the internationalization of the capital market has increased, with foreign investors holding 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [5]. (3) Current Policy Tone The regulatory authorities focus on "long - term healthy and stable" development, emphasizing zero - tolerance for violations and leaving room for subsequent policies, which helps stabilize market expectations [7]. 2. Market Reaction and Short - term Logic - **Policy expectation shift**: The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase as there is no strong stimulus, and the index is at a relatively high level [9]. - **Technology and high - end manufacturing as the main lines**: The market has responded to policies supporting technology, making the technology sector a core area for long - term capital allocation [10]. - **Limited short - term incremental funds**: Long - term funds prefer to "buy on dips", and short - term incremental funds mainly come from portfolio rebalancing [11]. 3. Long - term Outlook - **Resilient economic fundamentals**: New economic drivers such as high - tech manufacturing will improve corporate profitability and support the stock index [13]. - **Adequate policy tools**: The regulatory authorities have a mechanism to stabilize the market, and global liquidity improvement will enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [14]. - **Deepened capital market reform**: The capital market's "market - oriented, legal, and international" level has been improved, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate A - shares will increase [15]. 4. Overall Judgment - **Short - term**: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around 3800 points, with a fluctuation range of 3700 - 3900 points [17]. - **Long - term**: Driven by economic fundamentals, policies, and reforms, the stock index has an upward trend [18].