国务院总理李强7月31日主持召开国务院常务会议，学习贯彻习近平总书记关于上半年经济形势和 做好下半年经济工作的重要讲话精神。会议强调，要深刻领会党中央关于经济形势的科学判断，进一步 增强做好下半年经济工作的责任感使命感，正确把握形势，强化忧患意识，坚持底线思维，勇于担当、 攻坚克难，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。要锚定全年发展目标任务，加力提升宏观政策效能，持续攻坚 破解难题，下更大力气抓好党中央决策部署的贯彻落实。要更加注重激发经济发展内生动力，持续深化 重点领域改革，在建设全国统一大市场、优化营商环境等方面取得更多成效。要更好统筹发展和安全， 牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，扎实做好防汛抢险救灾工作，更加周密细致落实好各项应对措施， 全力保障人民生命财产安全。 会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能＋"行动的意见》。会议指出，当前人工智能技术加速迭代 演进，要深入实施"人工智能＋"行动，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化应用，充分发挥我国产业体系完 备、市场规模大、应用场景丰富等优势，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合，形 成以创新带应用、以应用促创新的良性循环。政府部门和国有企业要强化示范引领，通过 ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need to enhance the sense of responsibility and mission for economic work in the second half of the year, focusing on consolidating and expanding the economic recovery momentum [1] - The government aims to boost macro policy effectiveness and tackle challenges by implementing the decisions made by the Central Committee [1] - There is a strong emphasis on stimulating the internal driving force for economic development and deepening reforms in key areas, such as building a unified national market and optimizing the business environment [1] Group 2 - The meeting approved the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications across various sectors [2] - The government plans to optimize the AI innovation ecosystem by enhancing computing power, algorithms, and data supply, while also increasing policy support and talent development [2] - A personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy and a service industry loan interest subsidy policy were discussed to lower credit costs and stimulate market activity [2] Group 3 - The meeting discussed and approved the draft of the "Law on Cultivated Land Protection and Quality Improvement," emphasizing the need for strict protection of cultivated land and its ecological functions [3]

国常会：学习贯彻习近平总书记关于上半年经济形势和做好下半年经济工作的重要讲话精神 金十数据7月31日讯，李强主持召开国务院常务会议，学习贯彻习近平总书记关于上半年经济形势和做 好下半年经济工作的重要讲话精神。会议强调，要深刻领会党中央关于经济形势的科学判断，进一步增 强做好下半年经济工作的责任感使命感，勇于担当、攻坚克难，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。要锚定全 年发展目标任务，加力提升宏观政策效能，持续攻坚破解难题，下更大力气抓好党中央决策部署的贯彻 落实。要更加注重激发经济发展内生动力，持续深化重点领域改革，在建设全国统一大市场、优化营商 环境等方面取得更多成效。要更好统筹发展和安全，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线，扎实做好防汛 抢险救灾工作，更加周密细致落实好各项应对措施，全力保障人民生命财产安全。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current housing crisis in the U.S. is attributed to high mortgage rates and rising home prices, with former President Trump blaming Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, which he claims is making homes unaffordable for Americans [1][4][10] Group 1: Housing Market Conditions - The median home price in the U.S. has surpassed $400,000, while mortgage rates are maintained at 6%-7%, severely limiting the purchasing power of average families [1] - The average price of single-family homes has increased from $320,000 in 2022 to $480,000, with down payment requirements rising from 10% to 25% [4] - The National Association of Realtors reports a 23% year-over-year decline in existing home sales for Q2 2025, marking the worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's assertion that high interest rates are costing American families $3,600 annually overlooks the impact of tariffs imposed during his administration, which contribute significantly to housing costs [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury has issued $12.3 trillion in debt in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2025, averaging $40 billion in daily borrowing, with interest payments exceeding military spending for 18 consecutive months [4][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - Powell faces pressure from Trump and political entities, while core commodity inflation has risen to 3.8%, partly due to tariffs on imported goods [6] - If the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure and lowers interest rates, it could trigger a crisis in the dollar system, as the share of U.S. dollars in global central bank reserves has dropped from 59% in 2020 to 52% [7][10] - The potential for a significant inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve could increase systemic risks if the divergence between White House and Federal Reserve policies continues for over six months [6]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell and the Federal Reserve is rooted in the economic challenges facing the U.S., including high debt and low growth, leading to calls for interest rate cuts [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, indicating a failure of Trump's tax cuts to stimulate growth [1][5] - High tariffs and interest rates have contributed to rising import prices and suppressed corporate financing, resulting in a manufacturing PMI below the growth threshold for three consecutive months [7] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to a $4.5 trillion revenue loss from tax cuts [5][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on inflation, employment, and growth data, rejecting political pressure from Trump [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is protected by the Federal Reserve Act and Supreme Court rulings, but Trump's team is attempting to challenge this independence [3][5] - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential impact on the dollar's dominance if the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic situation, characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratios and persistent deficits, raises concerns about a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. debt market, which has reached $35 trillion [9] - Historical precedents indicate that conflicts between the White House and the Federal Reserve can lead to significant market volatility [9] - If fiscal and monetary policies diverge for more than six months, the yield curve could invert by up to 150 basis points, posing systemic risks to financial markets [9]

Core Viewpoint - The new governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, Dimitar Radev, emphasizes that the European Central Bank (ECB) should pay more attention to political risks in its decision-making process [1] Group 1: Political Risks - Radev highlights that political developments are increasingly becoming sources of volatility, uncertainty, and systemic risk, which must be considered by central banks [1] - He references historical events, such as the sudden closure of the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance in the 1980s, to illustrate the importance of political stability [1] - Recent events, including France's efforts to repair public finances and Trump's criticisms of Powell, further underscore the political pressures faced by governments [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Radev believes that the ECB's current deposit rate of 2% is at or very close to a neutral level, suggesting that any further adjustments will be cautious and data-dependent [1] - He will begin participating in ECB meetings as an observer starting in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revisions to the ETF risk management guidelines by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges aim to enhance risk management for ETF operations and protect investors' rights, reflecting the rapid growth and complexity of the ETF market [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Regulations - The new regulations, effective from August 1, include enhanced risk management requirements for fund managers and clearer guidelines for member clients regarding ETF trading behavior [3][4]. - Fund managers are required to strengthen the management of ETF subscription and redemption lists, improve internal control systems, and optimize emergency drill arrangements [3][4]. - Member clients must establish management systems and processes for ETF trading, including client classification management and enhanced risk management for high-risk trading behaviors [4][5]. Group 2: Market Growth and Development - The ETF market has seen significant growth, with total ETF assets reaching 4.32 trillion yuan as of July 6, 2024, up from 1.11 trillion yuan in 2020 [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued policies to promote the development of index investment, aiming to enhance the scale and proportion of index-based investments in the capital market [5]. - The exchanges plan to continue optimizing ETF institutional mechanisms and strengthen self-regulation to promote high-quality development in the ETF market [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Italy has identified the United States, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Russia as countries posing significant systemic risks to Italian banks [1] Group 1 - The identification of these countries highlights the interconnectedness of global financial systems and the potential impact on Italian banking stability [1] - The designation of systemic risk indicates that developments in these countries could have far-reaching consequences for the Italian banking sector [1] - This assessment may influence investment strategies and risk management practices within Italian banks [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of effectively preventing and mitigating major economic risks, ensuring that systemic risks do not occur [1] Group 1: Government Debt Management - The report suggests strengthening government debt management, particularly in coordinating long-term special bonds with other central fiscal funds and local government special bonds [1] - It calls for enhanced oversight of local special bonds through in-depth regulation and strict review of local debt resolution effectiveness [1] - The report recommends dynamically adjusting the list of high-risk debt regions [1] Group 2: Risk Prevention in Key Areas - The report stresses the need to enforce accountability for risk management among local leaders, particularly in addressing risks related to real estate, local debt, and small local financial institutions [1] - It highlights the importance of coordinated supervision between central and local authorities to prevent the interconnection and transmission of risks [1] - The report advocates for a strong crackdown on illegal fundraising and other public risk issues [1]

Economic Indicators - The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the U.S. has declined for six consecutive months, with a 0.1% decrease in May, reaching 99.0 points, following a downward revision of a 1.4% drop in April [1][3] - The decline in LEI is attributed to multiple negative factors, including low consumer confidence, weak new orders, an increase in initial jobless claims, and a reduction in building permits [3][5] Market Reactions - Despite a temporary rebound in the stock market due to tariff rollbacks by Trump, the underlying weakness in the real economy remains evident, indicating that the stock market's performance is misleading [3][5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell, reflecting investor uncertainty about future economic conditions [7] Economic Outlook - The Conference Board predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025, warning that ongoing tariff policies could exert further downward pressure by 2026 [3][5] - The current economic indicators suggest a systemic weakening of economic momentum rather than a short-term adjustment, with manufacturing orders declining and labor market loosening indicating a cautious outlook from businesses [5] Global Implications - The deterioration of U.S. economic indicators may signal the onset of a new wave of global turmoil, affecting emerging markets through capital outflows, currency pressures, and financial market volatility [8] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that demand weakness and rising financing costs will also impact manufacturing across the Eurasian continent [8]