Core Viewpoint - Weak non-farm payroll data may act as a catalyst for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on the US dollar while potentially supporting US stocks. Conversely, strong non-farm data could undermine rate cut expectations, leading to market volatility [1]. Summary by Categories Non-Farm Payroll Performance - Non-farm payroll additions below 75,000 are expected to strengthen the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a potential increase to 50 basis points [2]. - An unemployment rate above 4.3% would reinforce the expectation of a 25 basis point cut, while a rate below 4.3% would weaken this expectation [2]. - Year-over-year average hourly earnings growth below 3.7% would support the case for a 25 basis point cut, while stronger growth would diminish rate cut expectations [2]. Impact on the US Dollar - A weak non-farm report would lead to a bearish outlook for the US dollar, while a strong report would result in a bullish sentiment [2]. - The dollar is expected to resume a downward trend with weak data, while strong data may lead to a consolidation phase [2]. Impact on US Stocks - A weak non-farm report is likely to boost stock prices due to lowered rate expectations, while strong data may lead to a bearish outlook for stocks [4]. - The market reaction to a weak report could result in a slight increase in stock prices, while strong data may cause a decline [4]. Impact on Gold - Weak non-farm data is expected to drive gold prices higher, while strong data could lead to a bearish sentiment for gold [4]. - A weak report may push gold prices to new highs, while a strong report could result in a slight decrease in gold prices [4].

Group 1: Currency and Economic Trends - The RMB has shown a gradual appreciation against the USD since July, with signs of accelerated upward movement expected in the short term [1] - On August 28, both onshore and offshore RMB quickly appreciated against the USD, breaking through multiple key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central parity [1] - Future movements in the RMB exchange rate will depend on factors such as "carry trade" reversals and the central parity's guidance [1] Group 2: Housing and Related Industries - Improvement-driven housing demand is expected to significantly boost consumption across various sectors, including home appliances, furniture, textiles, and electronics [2] - The construction and usage of housing will generate substantial digital, electronic, and informational demands, leading to a chain reaction of consumption [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Insights - The importance of cultural assets in cities is emphasized, with a strong opposition to transforming tourist spots into mere "check-in" locations [3] - The competition among cities is viewed as a struggle for cultural narrative control, which is essential for future urban development [3] Group 4: Stock Market and Investment Outlook - The US stock market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by breakthroughs in the AI sector and expectations of a soft landing for the US economy [4] - With the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the investment value of high-quality fixed income assets is gaining attention [4] - There is an upward revision of gold price expectations, highlighting its role in portfolio diversification and geopolitical risk hedging [4]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is currently at 98.13, showing a slight decline of 0.15%, indicating a long-term downtrend unless the non-farm payroll data exceeds an increase of 100,000 jobs this month [1] - The market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the August non-farm report expected to adjust expectations for subsequent rate cuts in October (currently at about 50% probability) and December (currently at about 40% probability) [1][2] - The August non-farm employment report is anticipated to show a net job addition of 75,000, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (3.7% year-on-year), and the U3 unemployment rate expected to slightly increase to 4.3% [2] Group 2 - The market is likely to adjust its expectations for future rate cuts based on the August employment data, unless there is a significant surprise in the report [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index faced resistance below 98.45 and support above 98.05, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [2] - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.45-98.50, with important support levels at 98.10-98.15 and 97.90-97.95 [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to reinforce market views on Federal Reserve policy and influence short-term interest rate trends [1] - Recent weaker-than-expected economic data has strengthened market bets on a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield retreating from the 5% mark [1] - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Derivative contracts betting on Federal Reserve policy indicate nearly a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month, with expectations of five total cuts by the end of next year [2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently around 3.6%, close to its lowest level since May [2] - Market participants are preparing for potential volatility in response to the employment report, with options pricing indicating a balance point of 10 basis points for fluctuations [3] Group 3 - If the employment report is stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar may be boosted, as market sentiment is currently leaning bearish on the dollar [4] - Hedge funds and other speculative investors held short positions against the dollar amounting to approximately $5.6 billion in the week ending August 26 [4] - A strong employment report could indicate a reduction in the Federal Reserve's easing measures for the remainder of the year, potentially supporting the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market is facing increasing downside risks, influenced by tightening immigration policies that have led to a sudden slowdown in labor growth [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the rising risks in the labor market during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1] - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly emphasized the uncertainty regarding whether price increases related to tariffs are temporary, warning that waiting for definitive evidence could harm the labor market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Current market positioning suggests limited downside potential for the US dollar, but a significant drop in job openings reported in the JOLTS could further confirm the deterioration of the labor market, potentially putting pressure on the dollar [1] - Conversely, if the JOLTS data exceeds expectations, it is unlikely to alter the market's existing outlook on Federal Reserve policy, thus having a limited potential uplifting effect on the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the downward risks to the economy and employment, balancing the interest rate cut expectations of the U.S. government, markets, and the Federal Open Market Committee against inflation risks potentially triggered by tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The focus on labor market data has significantly increased, with its impact weight expected to rise notably [1] - If labor market data falls short of expectations, it could substantially elevate the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, potentially reigniting market speculation for one or more 50 basis point cuts [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - A disappointing ADP report, with a consensus of 80,000 jobs, could lay the groundwork for bearish sentiment towards the dollar, despite the index's limited predictive value for the subsequent non-farm payroll data [1] - In the event of heightened interest rate cut expectations, the dollar is anticipated to face further significant declines [1]

Summary of Global Precious Metals Comment Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **precious metals industry**, particularly **gold** and **silver**. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a resurgence in interest as of September, reaching record highs, with silver also surpassing the $40 mark [1] - The recent rally in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, lower real yields, and a weakening US dollar [1][2] - Despite previous price consolidations, investor sentiment towards gold remains positive, with many waiting for optimal entry points [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The anticipation of Fed rate cuts has intensified, driven by weakening economic data and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the Fed's credibility amid political pressures could act as a bullish catalyst for gold, reinforcing its status as a hedge against systemic risks [3] - The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has provided additional support for gold prices [3] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - Current market positioning in gold remains low, suggesting potential for further price increases as investor allocations grow [4] - The report anticipates that gold could reach between $3600 and $3700, while silver may rise to $44 or $45 [4] - Historical trends indicate that gold typically performs well in the fourth quarter, coinciding with increased physical demand during wedding and festival seasons in India and China [25] Risks and Considerations - There is a caution against shorting gold at current highs due to the prevailing macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by uncertainty [4] - A potential pullback in gold prices could occur if US economic data exceeds expectations, leading to a recalibration of Fed rate expectations [24] - The report suggests that while a significant correction is unlikely, support levels around $3450 and $3400 are expected to hold [24] Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's role as a strategic asset is emphasized, particularly in times of high macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [33] - The report predicts that core allocations to gold will increase as more investors recognize its value in enhancing portfolio resilience [33] - Official sector purchases are expected to remain strong, with net buying projected at around 900-950 tonnes for the year [33] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is bullish for gold and silver, with expectations of continued price increases driven by a broadening investor base and seasonal demand factors [32][33]

Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with inflation trends not hindering this decision[2] - Recent data shows declines in the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices, along with a decrease in rental prices[2] - The Manheim used car wholesale price index has also shown a month-on-month decline, indicating slower inflationary pressures on core goods[2] Labor Market Analysis - Employment data has shown a significant slowdown, with average hourly wages in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor, such as leisure and healthcare, declining since April[2] - The tightening of immigration policies has had a limited impact on the supply side of the U.S. labor market[2] Asset Price Trends - Anticipation of early interest rate cuts may lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve[3] - The U.S. dollar experienced a slight strengthening in mid-August, primarily due to reduced uncertainty around tariff policies rather than interest rate differentials[3] - The narrowing interest rate spread between the U.S. dollar and the euro suggests medium-term downward pressure on the dollar index[3] Risk Factors - A stronger-than-expected recovery in the labor market, coupled with persistent inflation above expectations, could delay the Fed's rate-cutting schedule[4]

Group 1 - The current trend of the US dollar appears to be more aligned with changes in economic growth expectations rather than fluctuations in interest rate differentials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in the U.S. stock market is expected to continue, with the S&P 500 index projected to reach a historic high of 9914 points by September 2027, based on historical data and trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, bases his prediction on the average increase of 177% and duration of 59 months observed in past bull markets [1][3]. - The S&P 500 index's price-to-book ratio is currently at 5.3 times, the highest since 1946, indicating extreme market valuation [4][6]. - The report suggests that the "AI bubble" is a significant driver of current market valuations, with the market capitalization of the "AI Big 10" accounting for 39% of the total U.S. stock market [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The nominal GDP growth rate in the U.S. over the past five years is 52%, the fastest expansion since the 1970s [6]. - The U.S. government debt has reached a historic high of $37 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of China, Japan, Germany, and India [3][6]. - The average unemployment rate for recent graduates in the U.S. has surged to 8.1%, the highest level since July 2021 [6]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - China’s stock market has emerged as the best-performing market globally over the past two years, with significant capital inflows, totaling $3.9 billion in the latest week [7]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined by 11% since its peak in January 2025, indicating a potential downtrend in the dollar's value [7].