Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "first decline then stabilization" trend, influenced primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations, with short-term price fluctuations expected but long-term support remaining strong due to central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - International gold prices opened lower at $4049.64 per ounce and have since recovered to $4078.59 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% from the previous day [1]. - Domestic gold T+D reported at 925.59 yuan per gram, down 29.12 yuan, a decline exceeding 3%, while the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 3.27% to 927.78 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary reason for gold price fluctuations is the impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations, with recent hawkish statements from several officials leading to a drop in December rate cut expectations to around 41% [1]. - High interest rates or low expectations for rate cuts increase the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, making it less attractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term declines, the long-term logic supporting gold prices remains intact, particularly due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets like China and India [1]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine may trigger a flight to safety, potentially causing a rebound in gold prices [1]. - The RSI indicator for London gold is nearing the "oversold" zone, suggesting that some investors may begin to enter the market for bottom-fishing [1]. Group 4: Future Price Movements - In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain volatile, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks expected to influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2]. - The upcoming December FOMC meeting will be crucial, as discussions on inflation and interest rates will directly impact the medium-term trajectory of gold prices [2].

Economic Uncertainty - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to concerns about the potential delay or non-release of key economic data, such as the October CPI and employment report [2] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to approximately 50%, down from over 95%, as recent statements from Federal Reserve officials lean towards a hawkish stance, putting pressure on gold prices [3] Dollar and Safe-Haven Sentiment - A weakening dollar, nearing a two-week low, combined with a soft stock market, has created a demand for safe-haven assets, providing support for gold prices [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the release of key economic data from the U.S. government, particularly the October CPI and employment report, is crucial as it will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Technical Levels - Resistance level is at $4245, which is the previous day's high and a key resistance point [5] - Support levels are identified between $4145 and $4160, which correspond to the previous day's low and the current Asian session low [6] - A strong support/resistance level is noted at $4100 (psychological level) and $4300 (round number) [6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced volatility on November 14, initially breaking through $4180/oz, with a daily increase of 0.22%, but later fell below $4180, $4170, $4160, and $4150/oz, resulting in a daily decline of 1.13% [1][2] - New York futures for gold also saw a downward trend, initially surpassing $4180/oz, with a daily decrease of 0.34%, and subsequently deepening losses, falling below $4180, $4170, $4160, and $4150/oz, with a maximum daily drop of 1.53% [3][4] - In the silver market, spot silver prices broke through $53/oz in the morning of November 14, with a daily decline of 0.10%, and New York futures for silver fell below $52/oz, expanding the daily drop to 2.73% [5][6] Group 2: Macro and Market Impact - Market focus is on Federal Reserve policy expectations, with short-term interest rate derivatives indicating less than 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, as traders' bets on a rate cut have fallen below 50% [7][8] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed should maintain rates to continue reducing inflation, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized caution in further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [9][10] - Internationally, European financial stability officials are discussing a plan to integrate non-U.S. dollar reserves to establish an alternative liquidity support mechanism to reduce dependence on the U.S. [11] - The U.S. and Argentina reached a trade agreement framework, agreeing to open markets in key commodity sectors, with the U.S. also planning to introduce some tariff exemptions to lower food prices [12][13] - The U.S. dollar index faced pressure, falling below 99 for the first time since October 30, with a daily drop of 0.47%, while the U.S. stock market weakened, with the Nasdaq index declining by 2.00% and the S&P 500 index down by 1.00%, driven by risk aversion and tech stock sell-offs [14][15][16] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil surplus for next year for the sixth consecutive month, primarily due to OPEC+ continuing to restore supply while demand growth remains weak [17] Group 4: Financial Futures - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant pullback, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 on November 13 and further declining below $99,000 on November 14, with a daily drop of 2.71%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $450 billion since early October, indicating a confirmed bear market with the next key support level at $93,000 [18][20] - Ethereum also experienced a decline, falling below $3,300 on November 14 with a daily drop of 3.40%, and subsequently dropping below $3,200, with the daily decline expanding to 6.34% [21][22]

Group 1 - The core logic supporting international gold prices remains unchanged despite short-term volatility, with a solid bullish trend expected to continue [1] - Three main factors driving the long-term positive outlook for gold include: 1. Normalization of global central bank gold purchases driven by "de-dollarization" demand from emerging markets, providing a solid bottom support for the gold market [1] 2. High U.S. debt levels and declining real interest rates post-Federal Reserve rate cuts, enhancing gold's appeal as an alternative reserve asset [1] 3. Global monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. government shutdown risks and regional conflicts, injecting risk premium into the market and reinforcing gold's value [1] Group 2 - The global fiscal deficit is expected to continue rising, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious yet overall accommodative policy stance, keeping risk-free interest rates low [2] - The attractiveness of gold as a non-credit-backed safe-haven asset is increasing, supported by stable central bank gold purchasing trends and dual benefits from policy and demand sides [2] - Key market focus for the week includes U.S. manufacturing PMI and delayed employment data, which will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, as well as developments in global geopolitical situations [2] - From a technical perspective, short-term gold price support is noted in the $3950-$3970 per ounce range, while resistance is observed in the $4050-$4070 per ounce area [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, influenced by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - The recent drop in international gold prices from a historical high of $4390 per ounce to $3987 per ounce, a nearly 9% decline, was primarily due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are still in an overbought territory, indicating a need for further adjustment despite recent stabilization [5] - Demand for gold has temporarily weakened as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases with a stronger dollar, leading to reduced investor interest [5] Group 2: Long-term Support Factors - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to persistent inflation, with the U.S. core PCE index still above the 2% target and long-term inflation expectations around 2.5% [3][6] - Central banks globally, including those in Russia and India, have increased their gold holdings by a total of 126 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a significant boost to the gold market [3][6] - Geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the dollar system also contribute to long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid speculative buying in the short term and consider accumulating gold if prices fall below $3800 per ounce, as this level represents a long-term support point [8] - For long-term investment, gold should be included as part of an asset allocation strategy, with a recommended allocation of 10-15% to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation [9] - The upcoming price movements will reflect a battle between short-term expectations and long-term trends, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investment in gold [9]

Core Viewpoint - Economic uncertainty has heightened risk aversion, leading to a rebound in gold prices after hitting a low, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4092 per ounce [1] Market Performance - As of 14:23, the China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.37%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.89%, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.58% [1] Economic Context - The U.S. White House has warned that due to the ongoing government shutdown, it may not release the inflation data for October, marking the first time in history this data will not be published [1] - In the absence of this data, the interaction between Federal Reserve policy expectations and market sentiment will be the primary driver of gold price fluctuations [1] Investment Insights - According to Guangfa Fund Advisory, the recent pullback in gold prices is mainly due to easing concerns over geopolitical conflicts and some profit-taking by investors [1] - Despite the high volatility expected in the medium to long term, gold still holds certain asset allocation value [1]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,488.95 tons on October 23, a decrease of 94.74 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $48.65 per ounce on October 23, up 0.98%, with an intraday high of $49.23 and a low of $47.64 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's October interest rate cut probability stands at 97.3%, with a 2.7% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - A survey of economists indicates that 115 out of 117 expect the Fed to lower rates to 3.75%-4.00% in October, with expectations of two rate cuts for the year from 83 economists [3] - The strong dollar, supported by short covering and moderate demand for precious metals, may increase the downward pressure on silver prices [3] - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and delays key data releases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold market has shown a "strong breakthrough + high-level fluctuation" characteristic since October 2025, with prices surpassing the historical threshold of $4200 per ounce and continuing to rise, supported by multiple favorable factors [1] Group 1: Current Market Performance - International spot gold prices have been particularly strong, reaching $4360.82 per ounce as of October 21, with a daily increase of 2.90% and a five-day cumulative increase of over 4.8% [2] - Domestic market, represented by Shanghai Gold (Gold T+D), also saw a price of 996.36 yuan per gram, reflecting a 2.35% increase, indicating a close correlation with international prices [2] - Retail demand for physical gold has shown a slight decline due to high prices, with mainstream gold shop prices ranging from 1258 to 1268 yuan per gram, down by 0.86%-1.72% [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that London gold has broken previous resistance levels, with KDJ and RSI indicators in the overbought zone but not showing clear reversal signals, suggesting continued bullish momentum [3] - Key resistance levels are identified between $4380 and $4400 per ounce, while support levels are at $4300, $4218, and the psychological level of $4200 [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three core supportive factors are driving gold prices upward: 1. Increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and renewed political tensions in Europe [4] 2. Central banks' ongoing large-scale gold purchases, making gold the second-largest reserve asset globally, which reduces the available market supply [4] 3. Shifts in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, with dovish expectations leading to a weaker dollar and lower real interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the $4300-$4380 per ounce range, with a primary strategy of buying on dips and selling on rebounds [7] - For medium-term investors, buying opportunities are recommended in the $4200-$4250 per ounce range, with a stop-loss set below $4180 [8] - Risk management principles emphasize strict stop-loss and take-profit settings, controlling position sizes, and monitoring key economic data and geopolitical events [9][10] Group 5: Conclusion - The current spot gold market is characterized by a "strong trend + high-level fluctuation" phase, supported by three favorable factors, while caution is advised regarding potential short-term pullbacks due to overbought conditions and resistance levels [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 1%, reflects a market adjustment to Federal Reserve policy expectations and a temporary increase in investor risk appetite [1][2]. Market Review - On September 30, during European trading hours, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 1%. The past week saw increased volatility in gold prices, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2][10]. Driving Factors Analysis - **Strengthening Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations**: Recent robust U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar and higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have pressured gold prices [4]. - **Rising Risk Appetite**: The performance of risk assets, such as U.S. stocks and certain emerging market indices, has improved, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment and reduced demand for gold [5]. - **Technical Factors**: Gold faced resistance near key levels, with intensified trading activity leading to a 1% drop, potentially exacerbated by technical selling and stop-loss orders [6]. - **Temporary Easing of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Variables**: A decrease in market focus on certain geopolitical risks has weakened the buying momentum for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Market Interpretation and Investor Sentiment - Market participants exhibit divided interpretations, with some institutions noting limited changes in gold ETF holdings, suggesting that long-term capital has not significantly exited the market, and that short-term fluctuations may be more emotional adjustments [8]. Future Outlook and Key Focus Areas - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on: 1. The Federal Reserve's policy direction [9] 2. Potential declines in U.S. inflation and economic data over the coming months, which could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent 1% decline in spot gold prices indicates significant short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations. However, gold retains its strategic value as a long-term safe-haven and store of value, warranting a broader examination of global macro trends and risk dynamics rather than solely focusing on short-term price movements [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a rebound high of 3888.6 points on Tuesday but then pulled back. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the textile, coal, and banking sectors led the losses. The core driver of the market's upward movement was the continuous inflow of funds under the influence of positive risk appetite. However, regulatory cooling rumors during the week led to some risk - aversion among investors [2]. - The driving factors of the market still lie in internal and external variables. Domestically, it is necessary to focus on the policy's attitude towards preventing stock market risks at the current position. Overseas, pay attention to the adjustment of the US stock technology and chip sectors and its impact on the domestic market, as well as the impact of the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectations on the domestic market. If the internal and external situations are stable, the market is expected to show a slightly stronger pattern in the shock and may try to break through the 4000 - point mark. If internal and external fluctuations increase, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways at the current position [3]. - Key factors to watch include the domestic economic and policy trends and the Fed's policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains at 35% [9]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. Among them, the information and materials industries in the CSI 300 index had relatively large increases, while the energy and financial industries declined [11]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock - index futures contracts, and the IM contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures both rebounded [13][17][18]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 22, the TTM P/E ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.42 times, 13.97 times, 11.89 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [24][25]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - The chart shows the new - established equity - biased fund shares, the margin trading balance in the two markets, the capital interest - rate price, and the central bank's net investment situation [28]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IIH, IH, IC, and IM can refer to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend strategy: After adjustment, go long. It is expected that the core operating ranges of the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 contracts are 4371 - 4596 points, 2906 - 3040 points, 6787 - 7242 points, and 7109 - 7588 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5].