文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布了备受瞩目的新一轮关税举措，导致全 球股市普跌，今日跌幅最大的是越南和日本股市，金价则再创新高。受美 国关税政策影响，美联储短期内或难以下调利率。市场将密切关注关税反 制措施。 对等关税整体力度大超预期，导致股市普跌，黄金再创新高 特朗普新一轮关税政策分为基准关税和对等关税两部分。基准关税提升10%，4月5日起生效，整体而言 低于市场此前预期。 而对等关税，整体力度大幅超过预期，预计4月9日起生效，其中对中国加征34%关税（合计54%）， 对欧盟加征20%关税，对日本加征24%关税，对越南加征46%关税，对印度加征26%，对韩国加征25% 关税等。 值得注意的是，加拿大、墨西哥并未被列入对等关税名单当中 ， "美墨加"协定下的商品关税豁免将继 续下去。 在对等关税的冲击下，各国股市纷纷走低，今天跌幅最大的是越南和日本，越南股市暴跌7%，日本股 市大跌3%。 A股与H股延续调整，收盘时上证指数下跌0.24%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，人民币对美元一度贬至7.35。 美国对华加征关税54%，大超市场此前预期，中国资产尚未充分定价关税冲击带来的影响，贸易摩擦 ...

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待近期美股市场调整 ？ 3. 美国经济发生深度衰退的可能性很低。受益于过去几年的财政扩张，居民和企业部门的资产 负债表目前非常健康，财政紧缩可能使美国经济受到一定冲击，但演变为深度衰退的可能性很 低。 总的来看，我们倾向于美国本轮下跌调整（跌幅10-15%）的概率大于熊市（跌幅20%）的概 率。后续市场走势一方面取决于特朗普政府财政紧缩和关税等方面的实际动作，更重要的是观 察特朗普政府主要官员对股市评论措辞的变化，观察政策期权何时出现。 免责声明 2. 财政紧缩预期压制增长前景。马斯克主导的政府效率部DOGE冻结了大量政府外包合同，计 划大规模削减联邦雇员，其影响已经在2月美国挑战者裁员报告等数据上开始显现。 3. 政策叙事转向"经济排毒论"。特朗普政府官员近期频繁提及"美国经济需要转型期"，财长贝 森特称"过去依赖财政扩张、移民红利和全球化红利的增长模式不可持续"。这种叙事转变动摇 了市场对"高增长-高估值"逻辑的信仰。 但从现实来看，美国经济恶化速度并没有那么快。 1. 关税对消费影响有限。据测算，美国进口消费品仅占私人消费支出的4%，即便对墨、加、中 全面加征25%关税，受影 ...

Economic Outlook - The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed predicts a significant drop in the US GDP growth rate to -1.5%, marking the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1][2] - This prediction has been revised down from nearly 4% just a month ago, indicating a sharp decline in economic expectations [1] - The impact of trade tariffs and fiscal tightening under the Trump administration is raising concerns about future economic growth [2] Real Estate Market - In February, Guangzhou's new residential property sales surged by 59% year-on-year, with a total of 36.27 million square meters sold [3][4] - The second-hand housing market also showed strong performance, with a 29.04% increase in transactions, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3][4] - The increase in sales is attributed to a rise in market activity post-Spring Festival and a favorable policy environment [4] Corporate Developments - Alibaba plans to invest at least 380 billion yuan (approximately 53 billion USD) in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, marking the largest investment in this sector by a private company in China [6] - BYD announced a rapid placement of 1.298 billion H-shares at a price of 335.2 HKD per share, raising approximately 435 billion HKD, aimed at R&D and international expansion [7][8] - Hema is shifting focus from its X membership stores to expanding its fresh food stores, planning to open nearly 100 new locations [9][10] Technology Sector - IBM has officially shut down its China investment company, marking a significant reduction in its R&D presence in the country [11][12] - This move reflects IBM's struggle to keep pace with competitors in the AI and cloud computing sectors, leading to a strategic retreat from the Chinese market [12] Market Stability Proposals - A proposal has been made to establish a 10 trillion yuan stock market stabilization fund to support the Chinese economy and boost market confidence [13][14] - The establishment of a real estate stabilization fund is also suggested, although its implementation may face challenges due to liquidity issues in the housing market [14]