Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. remained largely flat month-on-month, primarily due to a decline in service costs, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased costs from rising import tariffs [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Data - The PPI report follows the June CPI data, which shows that higher tariffs are gradually being passed on to various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products [1] - Despite a generally mild inflation rate this year, many economists expect inflation to gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset higher trade costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stalemate of the Federal Reserve is likely to persist due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation data [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Recent inflation data has not alleviated uncertainties stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The housing price index has shown a slight decline, indicating a potential downward trend in inflation [1] - However, prices of certain goods potentially affected by import tariffs have seen an acceleration in their price increases [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The analyst believes that without the uncertainties related to tariffs, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would likely have enough confidence to begin lowering interest rates [1] - The current policy stalemate is expected to continue until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the negative impact of tariffs, Ericsson's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations due to increased sales in high-profit countries, rising licensing revenues, and cost reductions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter was 45.7 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 4.752 billion USD), surpassing FactSet analysts' forecast of 33.9 billion Swedish Krona [1] - Overall sales in the main network business declined by 5.3% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Strong growth was observed in the North American market, while the European market showed slight growth [1] - Sales in the Indian market experienced a significant decline, attributed to low levels of network investment in the region [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CEO expressed optimism about continued growth in the Americas and stabilization in Europe [1] - The company noted that future uncertainties may increase, including potential changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, aimed at revitalizing the domestic metal industry and reversing the decline in U.S. copper market influence [1][5]. Policy Implementation - Specific details regarding the implementation of the copper tariff, such as the method of collection, product scope, and potential supplier exemptions, remain unclear, leaving metal traders awaiting further clarification [3]. - The announcement has already influenced copper futures, which surged to historical highs before slightly retreating, maintaining a 1.40% increase at $5.6200 per pound [3]. Industry Context - The copper tariff is part of a broader series of industrial policies by the Trump administration, which has previously raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, with indications of more industry-specific tariffs in preparation [5]. - The U.S. heavily relies on copper imports, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico, despite copper being the second most used strategic metal by the Department of Defense [5]. - In anticipation of the tariff's impact, U.S. producers and traders are adjusting their supply chains, with some shifting delivery locations to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to shorten shipping times [5]. - Since the initial proposal of the copper tariff in February, U.S. metal imports have reached record highs as traders seek to capitalize on price differences before the tariff takes effect [5].

Group 1 - The UK economy experienced its fastest growth since early 2024, with a GDP increase of 0.7% in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in real estate market activity and manufacturers increasing output in response to US import tariffs [1] - Household spending rose by 0.4%, supported by housing, household goods and services, and transportation, with March's growth rate revised up from 0.2% to 0.4% [1] - The real estate market saw a significant increase in transaction volume before the expiration of tax relief for specific homebuyers at the end of March, contributing to economic growth [1] Group 2 - Manufacturing performance was particularly strong, growing by 1.1% compared to Q4 2024 [1] - However, GDP fell by 0.3% in April, indicating that the strong growth in Q1 may not continue throughout the year [2] - Experts warn that despite encouraging Q1 economic data, future growth prospects remain uncertain due to a complex global economic environment and new US import tariffs that may challenge UK exporters [2]

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week, but the unemployment rate may rise in June due to more unemployed individuals struggling to find work [1] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, which is below expectations [1] - The data includes the week of the Independence Day holiday, during which applications tend to be unstable [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits increased by 37,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Despite the decline in initial claims, layoffs are increasing, making it harder for unemployed individuals to find new opportunities [1] - Economists attribute the challenges to widespread import tariffs imposed by President Trump, which complicate business planning [1] - Some economists predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June due to the ongoing increase in continuing claims [1]

盾博dbg发现在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，美联储的货币政策走向始终是金融市场关注的焦点。堪 萨斯联储主席施密德周二的一番表态，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了新的视角。他明确指出，在 决定是否进一步降息之前，美联储有充足的时间来研究进口关税上升对物价和经济增长产生的影响，这 一观点凸显了美联储在制定政策时的审慎态度。 面对这种复杂局面，施密德明确表示："何时降息以及降息幅度还远不够明朗。" 他坚决主张在经济走 向更加清晰之前，保持利率不变。这一立场体现了美联储在平衡经济增长、控制通胀和稳定就业等多重 目标时的谨慎态度。在全球贸易局势紧张、国内经济数据波动的背景下，美联储的每一次政策调整都可 能引发广泛的经济和市场反应。因此，采取 "观望" 策略，等待更多经济数据和信号，无疑是在不确定 性中寻求确定性的稳妥之举。 事实上，美联储维持现有利率水平的决策与外部压力形成了鲜明对比。尽管美国总统特朗普多次公开呼 吁降息，试图通过降低利率刺激经济增长，但自去年 12 月以来，美联储始终坚守立场，将基准利率维 持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 的区间。这一坚持背后，是美联储对经济形势的独立判断与对货币政策自主性的捍 卫。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...