Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]

对于当前宏观经济形势，《报告》认为，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸 易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战。同时，我国经济基 础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，要保持战略定力，集中力量 办好自己的事，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。下阶段，中国人民银行将坚持以 习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会和中央经济工作会议精 神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之 路，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，持续推动金融高质量发展和金融强国建设，加快完善中央 银行制度，进一步健全货币政策框架。平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支 持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，保持政策连 续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，强化宏观政策取向一致性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期， 努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势 ...

货币政策重心 在于抓好落实 本报记者 刘琪 日前，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称 《报告》）。《报告》显示，今年以来，央行认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，货币政策适度宽松， 强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济持续回升向好创造了 适宜的货币金融环境。 在总结上半年货币政策执行情况的同时，《报告》还对下一阶段货币政策主要思路进行阐述。其中明 确，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的 力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相 匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环境。 业内专家表示，下一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，关键还是抓好落实，对前期政策的传导情况和实际 效果要密切跟踪，保持连续性，增强灵活性，充分释放政策效应。同时，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头， 需要强化宏观政策取向一致性，进一步发挥政策合力。 相较于《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》中"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"的表述，此次《报 告》调整为"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"。 ...

Group 1: International Developments - Trump claims significant progress on Russia issues, giving the meeting a score of 10 and indicating a future meeting with Putin is likely [10] - U.S. envoy states Putin has agreed to provide Ukraine with "NATO-like Article 5" security guarantees [10] - Trump plans to determine tariffs on steel and chips within two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs potentially reaching 300% [10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that two rate cuts this year remain a good prediction, while Goolsbee expresses concerns over recent inflation data [11] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.82, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.321% [3][7] - WTI crude oil dropped 1.22% to $62.26 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 1.04% to $65.60 per barrel [4][7] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% and the S&P 500 down 0.29% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.98%, while the technology index decreased by 0.59% [5] - A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.83% and the Shenzhen Component up 1.6% [6]

Monetary Policy Focus - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the implementation and refinement of a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a shift towards ensuring effective execution of previously announced financial policies [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of tracking the transmission and actual effects of prior policies, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing measures in the short term [2][3] Credit Support and Financial Structure - The report indicates a change in focus from increasing credit volume to stabilizing credit support, reflecting a shift towards quality over quantity in financial services [4][5] - It emphasizes the need to observe broader financial indicators such as social financing scale and M2, rather than solely focusing on loan amounts, to better assess the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [5][6] Financial Services and Economic Structure - The report outlines initiatives to enhance financial services for small and micro enterprises, support technological innovation, and improve the quality of service consumption, aiming to optimize the credit structure in alignment with economic transformation [6][7] - It notes a significant shift in the structure of new loans, with a growing proportion directed towards strategic economic sectors, indicating a focus on sustainable financial support for high-quality economic development [6][7]

Economic Situation Analysis - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, requiring a focus on strategic determination and addressing domestic issues to achieve significant breakthroughs in modernization [3][8]. - The central bank emphasizes that while there are risks and challenges in the economic operation, the long-term supportive conditions and trends for economic growth remain unchanged [3][8]. - The report highlights the differentiation in economic performance among major economies, moving from a focus on geopolitical conflicts to an analysis based on economic fundamentals [3][8]. Policy Orientation - The report advocates for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on effective execution and improving the efficiency of fund utilization while preventing fund idling [4][9]. - It reiterates the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability, aiming to create a conducive financial environment [4][9]. - The report stresses the importance of balancing support for the real economy with maintaining the health of the banking system, indicating a focus on optimizing the cost of bank liabilities to facilitate lower loan rates [4][9]. Key Issues - The central bank plans to enhance financial support for small and micro enterprises and technology-driven small and medium-sized enterprises, reflecting improvements in their financing conditions over the past decade [5][10]. - The structure of new credit has shifted from being predominantly focused on real estate and infrastructure to prioritizing areas outlined in the "five major articles" of finance, with the current loan structure showing approximately 70% directed towards these areas [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need to improve the supply of high-quality services to boost consumption, addressing issues such as insufficient supply, quality concerns, and low profitability of enterprises [5][10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policy measures in the first half of the year, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments to support economic recovery [1][2] - The report indicates that the PBOC aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity is abundant and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [1][2] - As of June, key financial indicators such as social financing scale and broad money supply have shown stable growth, with GDP increasing by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive economic trend [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC has cumulatively reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, leading to significant declines in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The report highlights a shift in loan distribution, with a growing proportion directed towards technology, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, reflecting a structural optimization in credit allocation [5][6] - The PBOC is focusing on enhancing direct financing, with the proportion of corporate bonds and stocks in social financing increasing by 4.4 percentage points since the end of 2018 [6] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting high-quality development through financial services, particularly in technology and service consumption sectors [7][8] - The PBOC has introduced new tools to enhance financial support for consumption and has noted the potential for service consumption to drive economic growth as income levels rise [8] - The report also addresses the need to improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation, particularly in light of the ongoing economic transition [4][5] Group 4 - The PBOC is actively addressing issues related to "involution" in competition, which can impact economic balance and pricing [10][11] - Recent policies have been introduced to regulate corporate competition and improve payment terms within supply chains, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [11] - The report indicates that these measures are expected to enhance the quality and efficiency of industrial chains and promote more rational competition among enterprises [11]

2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com CONTENTS 01 02 03 05 06 04 铜：基本面边际改善，但宏观存不确定性，价格震荡 铝：继续收敛，低波仍在，传统旺季前的累库或不足为惧 氧化铝：周中因山西矿消息大涨，但实际影响有限，平台位置仍有支撑 铸造铝合金：新增订单有限，淡季压力逐渐显现 锌：冶炼生产积极性较高，开工保持高位 铅：供应减少逻辑发酵，支撑价格 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 铜产业链周度报告 国泰 ...

Core Viewpoints - The central bank has introduced the phrase "detailed moderate easing" in its monetary policy, emphasizing that the structure of monetary policy is more important than the total amount at present [2][3] - Compared to the first quarter, the central bank has reiterated the need to "prevent fund idling," indicating concerns about potential systemic risks due to increased leverage in the asset market [2][4] - Future financial services will focus on supporting technological innovation and expanding consumption, with enhanced credit support and diversified financing channels [2][5] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Framework - The change in wording from "implementing moderate easing" in Q1 to "detailed moderate easing" in Q2 reflects a shift in focus towards the structure of monetary policy [3][8] - The understanding of moderate easing includes maintaining ample liquidity and low financing costs while dynamically adjusting policies based on economic conditions [3][8] - In Q2, both social financing and M2 have shown year-on-year increases, indicating improved financial investment expectations [3] Fund Utilization and Risks - Fund idling is defined as the behavior of funds moving from real to virtual assets, which can reduce the efficiency of fund usage [4][9] - The recent surge in non-bank deposits and stock market performance raises concerns about potential asset price volatility and systemic risks if interbank rates decline further [4][9] - The central bank may take measures to curb fund idling, which could disrupt the bond market, although the impact on equity assets may be limited due to the source of funds [4][9] Financing Focus - The central bank aims to support the real economy by focusing on major national strategies, particularly in technological innovation and consumption expansion [5][15] - Support for technological innovation will involve both strengthened credit support and improved direct financing channels [5][15] - For consumption expansion, policies will include enhancing service consumption support, broadening financing channels for consumption entities, and improving residents' consumption capacity and willingness [5][15]

近日召开的中央政治局会议强调，要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，并提出 要"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"，为下半年货币政策走向定下基调。受访专家认为，应继续发挥好货 币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，并更多采用结构性工具，突出支持科技创新、提振消费等主线，助 力经济结构转型和产业升级，提升新旧动能转换效能。 强化牵引带动作用 近年来，人民银行在实施总量政策的同时，围绕支持重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节，创设和实施结构 性货币政策工具，以进一步提升金融服务对经济结构调整、经济高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 今年5月份，人民银行创设了服务消费与养老再贷款、科技创新债券风险分担工具。其中，服务消费与 养老再贷款额度5000亿元，用于激励引导金融机构加大对服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支持；科 技创新债券风险分担工具支持股权投资机构发行科技创新债券融资。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，结构性货币政策工具有助于强化对金融机构的政策激励，进一步发挥货币 政策对金融机构的牵引带动作用，激励金融机构加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持服务。 截至今年一季度末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，已成为人民银行重要 ...