宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月通胀数据点评 PPI 同比转正时点或提前 主要观点 ❖ 1 月份通胀数据述评：整体趋势继续改善 PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续四个月上涨。环比来看，全国统一大市场建设带动 部分行业价格上涨（水泥、锂电池、光伏设备和元器件、基础化学原料、黑色 冶炼加工），AI 和节前备货需求增长带动相关行业价格上涨（计算机电子、工 业美术用品、农副食品加工），输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格下降、 有色相关行业价格上涨。 本月是基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和 代表规格品、权数等均有小幅变动。但根据统计局的测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 ❖ PPI 同比转正时点或提前 PPI 同比在今年三季度转正的概率较大，主要考虑以下三个因素： 第一，中游供需持续改善带来的价格止跌企稳的时点或已提前。在前期报告 中，我们基于 2015-2016 年、2019-2020 年的经验，即从中游装备制造业的供 给增速首次低于需求增速到价格环比止跌回升，大约历时 6-7 个季度。据此 ...

Group 1 - Energy and raw material prices are experiencing a phase of decline, with January PPI decreasing by 1.4% month-on-month, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 16.7%, while the prices in the oil, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 11.5% [2][11] - The overall energy-related industries are in a deep negative growth zone, significantly dragging down the PPI. Although some non-energy sectors, such as non-ferrous metals and electronics manufacturing, are seeing price recoveries, the high weight and large declines in the energy sector continue to be a major factor in the year-on-year negative PPI for January [2][11] - The January CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 0.2%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a high base from last year's Spring Festival and current weak food prices. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][4] Group 2 - The CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.2%, with food prices turning from growth to a decline of -0.7%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points. The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 6.9% and 3.2%, respectively, while pork and egg prices decreased by 13.7% and 10.6% [4][7] - Non-food prices saw a year-on-year growth rate decrease of 0.4 percentage points to 0.4%. Energy prices fell by 5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down by 11.4% [4][7] - The January PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of narrowing. The prices of production materials recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -1.3%, while living materials saw a decline of -1.7% [11][14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The food item saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, down 1.8 percentage points, while pork prices continued to be under pressure with a year-on-year drop of 13.7% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but month-on-month, it reached a six-month high of 0.3% [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January, the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2] - Key industries such as cement and photovoltaic equipment saw price increases, with cement rising by 0.1% and photovoltaic equipment by 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal industry surged, with mining and processing prices increasing by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - The CPI for February is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially reaching a new high since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand [3] - The PPI is anticipated to turn positive in the second quarter of this year, reflecting improvements in industrial price environments and the gradual recovery of economic momentum [3] - Current policies are focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery, which is expected to support the overall economic environment [3]

来源：滚动播报 白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：通胀数据将是美联储决定的关键因素。 ...

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、成交量跌破两万亿，值得担心吗？ 今天国内市场没有重大事件发生，整体表现基本稳定——这在春节前属于常态。市场成交趋于谨慎，资 金兴致缺缺，沪深两市成交量已下滑至2万亿元以下，最终定格在1.98万亿元。 个人认为，这些数据或三大指数短期内的小幅回调，并不意味着市场正在走下坡路，而恰恰是节前的正 常现象。如果我们从几条核心逻辑线来看，市场的支撑力并未减弱。 首先看政策层面。春节前通常不会出台重大新政策，这是惯例。唯一值得关注的是央行今日发布的 《2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告》。报告中的表述基本符合市场预期，并未明确提及近期有降准或 降息的必要性。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、成交量跌破两万亿，值得担心吗？ 2、通胀数据发布，价格恢复透暖意 3、紧盯AI，等待节后资金回流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of basing market predictions on factual data rather than speculative or imagined scenarios [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The January inflation data met expectations, leading to a slight increase in the stock market and a balanced funding environment, with interest rates slightly declining [6]. - The central bank conducted a total of 4,785 billion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 4,035 billion yuan after 750 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured [4][6]. - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.37% and DR007 around 1.54% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The central bank mentioned improving the regular operation mechanism for government bond trading, which is expected to stabilize interest rates and reduce volatility [7]. - The 10-year government bond yield decreased from 1.857% to 1.786% since January 14, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market [7]. - The bond market is described as providing unexpected benefits to bondholders, with the sentiment remaining stable [7].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1130.400 | 9.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20944 | +660.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 160,510.00 | +3600.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,050.00 | +74.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 217,933.00 | -164.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 504,079.00 | -107478.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 342,102 | 18734↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1123.02 | 6.33↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 19,556.00 | 266.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -7.38 | -2.85↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year had a minimal impact on January CPI, unlike last year when it began at the end of January[1] - Food CPI remained flat month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the growth rate further expanding compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed[2] - The prices of non-ferrous metals saw an increased month-on-month growth, while fuel and building materials prices fell[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival[2] - PPI growth momentum has improved significantly, with expectations for continued recovery this year[2] - By 2026, CPI growth is projected to rebound, and PPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, leading to a notable acceleration in nominal GDP growth compared to 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - There are risks associated with declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]

| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布了 2026 年 1 月份全国 CPI 和 PPI 数据。2026 年 1 月，中国 CPI 同比+0.2%（前 值+0.8%），万得一致预期+0.15%，核心 CPI 同比+0.8%（前值+1.2%）；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），万 得一致预期-1.5%。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月11日 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比显著走强 经济研究·宏观快评 评论： 2026 年 1 月的通胀数据呈现出鲜明的分化特征：一方面，受春节错 ...