Inflation Data Summary - July CPI year-on-year growth is 0%, exceeding the expected -0.1% and matching the previous month's 0.1%[1] - July CPI month-on-month growth is 0.4%, up from -0.1% in the previous month and down from 0.5% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly above the previous value of 0.7%[1] PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year decline is -3.6%, worse than the expected -3.4% and unchanged from the previous month[1] - PPI month-on-month change is -0.2%, an improvement from -0.4% in the previous month[1] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by weak demand, with upstream industry price declines narrowing more significantly[2] Sector Contributions - Service and industrial consumer goods support CPI growth, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, underperforming compared to the seasonal average decline of 0.7%[2] - Upstream industries like coal mining and black metal smelting show reduced price declines, indicating some recovery in these sectors[3] Future Outlook - To achieve a positive year-on-year PPI by year-end, the average month-on-month growth over the next five months needs to reach at least 0.42%[3] - The "anti-involution" policy effects are beginning to show, but full transmission may take time[3] - The current inflation data suggests a moderate environment, supporting a loose monetary policy stance[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, emphasizing the need for action due to recent weak labor market data [1][3] - Bowman advocates for initiating rate cuts at the September meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market and to reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments later [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also noted the proximity of rate cuts, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts this year, with a focus on whether to cut in September and December [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data being revised downwards [4][5] Group 3 - Inflation data indicates stability, with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly higher than May [5] - The core PCE price index also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI and PPI, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inflation data in July showed that CPI was weakly recovering, while PPI was oscillating at the bottom. The positive changes in price operation were mainly due to the continuous manifestation of the effects of policies to expand domestic demand. In the future, prices may continue to rise moderately at a low level [1][2][3]. - In the short - term, the bond market may maintain a pattern of "oscillation + recovery". The overall stable macro - policy, fundamental logic, loose orientation of monetary policy, and reasonable and sufficient liquidity still support the bond market, but attention should be paid to the possible disturbances of changes in the stock and commodity markets to the bond market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Inflation Data: CPI Weakly Recovering, PPI Oscillating at the Bottom - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year (previous value was 0.1%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% (previous value was - 0.1%); PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year (unchanged from the previous value), and - 0.2% month - on - month (with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous value) [1]. - The data in July confirmed "inflation at the bottom and structural differentiation". On one hand, policies to expand domestic demand promoted the recovery of service consumption and industrial consumer goods prices, and the increase in core CPI confirmed the marginal repair of internal driving force. On the other hand, seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment affected the price decline of some industries, and PPI was still oscillating at the bottom year - on - year [2]. - The rise in bulk prices in July deviated from the weak PPI. The reasons were that the price increase in the upstream could not be effectively transmitted to the downstream, and the insufficient terminal demand weakened the price transmission power. If there was no obvious repair of demand, the pulling effect of upstream price increases on PPI would be limited [3]. 3.2 CPI: Month - on - Month Change from Decline to Increase, Core CPI Reached a New High in the Year - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month change turned from decline to an increase of 0.4%, stronger than the seasonal level, mainly supported by service and industrial consumer goods prices. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [9]. - Service prices increased by 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 percentage points to the month - on - month increase of CPI. Affected by the peak summer travel season, prices of air tickets, tourism, hotel accommodation, and vehicle rental increased by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively month - on - month [10]. - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the month - on - month increase of CPI. Energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, and industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy increased by 0.2% [11]. - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, reaching a high point since March 2024, mainly due to the increase in the prices of gold and platinum jewelry. The year - on - year decline in automobile prices converged. Food prices decreased year - on - year, becoming the main drag on CPI [11]. 3.3 PPI: Month - on - Month Decline Narrowed, Year - on - Year Continued to Bottom - In July, PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, remaining the same as the previous month, showing signs of bottoming out, indicating weak demand in the industrial sector. The month - on - month decline was 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing of the month - on - month decline since March [18]. - The drag on the month - on - month PPI was mainly affected by seasonal disturbances and trade uncertainties. Eight industries in total affected the month - on - month decline of PPI by about 0.24 percentage points. Seasonal factors affected the PPI of some industries, and uncertainties in the international trade environment put pressure on the prices of export - related industries [19][20]. - Positive factors were that the effects of capacity governance and "anti - involution" policies were gradually emerging, and the month - on - month decline in the prices of coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries narrowed, weakening the downward pull on PPI [20].

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 8月9日，国家统计局公布7月通胀数据，CPI同比0%、前值0.1%、预期-0.1%、环比0.4%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.6%、预期-3.4%、环比-0.2%。 核心观点：统计时点及中下游产能利用率偏低是PPI表现偏弱的两条"暗线"。 7月PPI继续磨底，大宗价格对PPI环比拉动虽转正，但统计上未囊括下旬的涨价情况，因而中上游PPI表 现不及高频数据。 PPI为每月5日、20日调查单价的简单平均值，而反内卷带动的涨价集中于下旬，因此 本月PPI（环比-0.2%）不及预期。高频数据也与PPI走势分化，7月煤、钢价格回升，而煤炭采选 （-1.5%）、黑色压延（-0.3%）环比仍为负。相比之下，油价、铜价对本月PPI贡献为正， 测算大宗商品 价格拉动PPI环比0.1%。 同时中下游价格对PPI拖累仍较大，也令7月PPI表现低于市场预期。 与2016年上游涨价向下游传导不同 的是，本轮供给过剩更多在中下游，导致上游涨价向下游传导受阻。如石化链下游PPI跌幅大于上游价格 理论传导幅度；机械设备、消费下游亦有类似特征， 测算7月中下游拖累PPI环比-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach, as the impact of tariffs has a lagging effect that has not yet fully manifested [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% before the meeting to around 45% afterward, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The Fed is expected to wait for two complete rounds of employment and inflation data before making further decisions, particularly regarding the transmission of commodity price pressures [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The outlook for rate cuts in 2023 has moderated, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, and the first potential cut could occur in the fourth quarter [1] - Concerns about dollar credit risk and capital market performance may limit political pressures on the Fed, including potential calls for tariff adjustments or dismissing Fed Chair Powell [1]

Hot News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang emphasized focusing on the annual development goals, enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, and stimulating the endogenous driving force of economic development [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's 2025 H1 situation briefing meeting stressed promoting the construction of a unified national market, reforming the tendering and bidding system, and promoting the healthy development of the private economy [3] - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce hoped that the EU would maintain market openness and provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [3] - In July, affected by factors such as the traditional off - season in manufacturing and natural disasters, the PMI dropped to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indexes were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point [3] - US inflation data for June slightly exceeded expectations. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, complicating the Fed's interest - rate cut path [4] Sector Performance Key Attention - Key sectors to focus on include coking coal, polysilicon, glass, soda ash, and alumina [5] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows that non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 27.86%, oilseeds 12.26%, non - ferrous metals 20.83%, soft commodities 2.67%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.40%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.76%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [5] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In terms of equities, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% daily, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 300 fell 1.82%, the CSI 500 fell 1.40%, the S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.60%, the German DAX fell 0.81%, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.02%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.05% [7] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.17%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 1.79%, WTI crude oil fell 1.11%, London spot gold rose 0.45%, LME copper fell 0.94%, and the Wind commodity index fell 0.58% [7] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.08%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [7]

Market Overview - Domestic futures main contracts showed a mixed trend with most contracts declining, including coking coal down over 3% and glass down over 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate increased nearly 2%, while coking coal, iron ore, and stainless steel saw slight gains [1] Commodity Performance - Coking coal (2601 M) decreased by 3.44% to 1138.5 [2] - Glass (2509 W) fell by 2.79% to 1114 [2] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (2509™) dropped by 1.78% to 3984 [2] - Para-xylene (2509 M) decreased by 1.72% to 6860 [2] - Canola meal (2509 M) fell by 1.65% to 2676 [2] - PTA (2509 W) decreased by 1.57% to 4766 [2] - Silver (2510 M) dropped by 1.47% to 8926 [2] - Other commodities like rubber and various oils also experienced minor declines [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations [3] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market forecasts [3] - Chicago PMI for July was reported at 47.1, higher than the expected 42 and previous value of 40.4 [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is at 61.8%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is at 38.2% [3] - By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 46.8% and 50 basis points at 13.9% [3] - Overall, inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, leading investors to lower the Fed's rate cut expectations for September [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].