Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined, reinforcing calls for interest rate cuts, with a month-over-month increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, both below expectations of 0.3% and 3.3% respectively [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a slight month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, which may support the notion that inflation is not out of control, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to consider rate cuts [3][4] - Labor market indicators show signs of weakness, with ADP and non-farm payroll data declining, and the JOLTS report indicating a softening labor market [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones index dropping 220 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 20 points, largely driven by Oracle Corporation (ORCL) which surged 36% after reporting strong earnings [4][5] - The S&P 500 index's slight increase was significantly influenced by ORCL, which accounted for a 0.66% rise in the index, despite the overall market showing weakness [6] - Bond markets saw an uptick, with TLT and TLH rising by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.03% [7] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Oil prices remained stable at $63.35 per barrel, maintaining support and resistance levels between $62.85 and $64.25 [8] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising by $14 to $3640, but then dropping by $25 to $3615, as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [8]

（Nataliia Lipikhina）表示："即便 CPI 出现小幅上涨，也有一种观点认为，这可能是由关税推动的短期 现象。只要涨幅不大，我认为市场不会出现大幅负面反应。" 市场预计，欧洲央行（ECB）政策制定者 将于周四晚些时候宣布维持利率不变，分析师认为本轮周期内不会再进一步降息。经济学家预计，新一 轮季度经济预测将缓解 "通胀持续低于 2%" 的担忧。 大宗商品市场方面，由于市场预测明年原油库存 将创纪录过剩，布伦特原油价格跌至每桶 67.30 美元附近。尽管国际能源署（IEA）小幅上调了截至 2026 年的全球石油需求预期，但对石油供应的预期上调幅度更大。 与此同时，墨西哥正考虑对来自中 国及其他未与其签订贸易协定的国家的汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和纺织品征收最高 50% 的关税。美国 总统唐纳德・特朗普与印度总理纳伦德拉・莫迪承诺将展开对话并重启贸易谈判，这一信号表明，在双 方就关税和俄罗斯石油采购问题激烈争执数周后，关系可能出现缓和。 来源：滚动播报 周四备受期待的美国通胀数据被视为影响今年美联储利率路径预期的关键因素，在该数据公布前，交易 员们暂缓大规模押注，全球股市小幅上涨。 标普 500 指数 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, urging immediate and significant rate cuts, claiming there is no inflation [1] - Analyst Mai Dong noted that the PPI drop indicates effective control of inflation, shifting the Fed's focus from curbing inflation to promoting employment and economic growth [1] Group 2: Oil Market - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels for the week ending September 5, indicating weak demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to concerns about an escalation of war, causing a short-term rise in oil prices [2] - Despite geopolitical factors, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues to suppress oil price increases [2] Group 3: Dollar Index - A federal judge blocked the removal of Fed Governor Cook, while the Trump administration quickly appealed, escalating tensions between Trump and the Fed [3] - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan to the Fed, who is expected to participate in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [3] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain interest rates, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December [3] Group 4: Nasdaq - The Nasdaq index closed higher, trading within the 23,000-24,000 range, having recently hit a historical high before retreating below 24,000 [4] - The market remains in an upward trend, with support at 23,750 [4] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices closed higher, showing signs of recovery after a significant downturn [5] - The market broke through the $4.45-$4.52 range, establishing a short-term upward trend [5]

The European Central Bank's interest-rate decision is due early Thursday ...

11:01 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 979.96 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-09- 关于美联储独立性的问题，也传来新的消息：当地时间9月9日，美国地方法官Jia Cobb裁定，特朗普很可能并没有根据《联邦储备法》所规定的"正当理 由"来解雇库克。然后，9月10日，美国司法部向华盛顿联邦上诉法院提交通知，要求推翻此前的裁决。这也是金价持续拉升的推动力。 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至9月10日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为979.96吨，较前一个交易日增加0.28吨。9月10日，现货黄金震荡上涨，盘中最高触及3657.58美 元/盎司关口，收于3640.5美元/盎司，涨14.5美元或0.41%。 基本面消息，在美国关键通胀指标--消费者物价指数报告公布之前，黄金整体维持震荡走高的势头。值得注意的是，9月10日公布的数据显示，美国8月生产 者物价指数（PPI）环比意外下跌0.1%，为四个月来首次转负，显示企业在面临关税成本上升压力下仍保持价格克制，为美联储下周降息决定增添新的支撑 因素。 目前，市场静 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the index futures are expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillations, while in the medium - term, they are expected to rise. The overall reference view is wide - range oscillations [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the medium - and long - term upward logic remains, but the short - term profit - taking intention of funds rises [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market trading volume shrank, indicating market sentiment divergence and the need for market consolidation. Some stocks had large previous gains, leading to increased profit - taking demand and short - term technical adjustments. The latest inflation data is stable month - on - month but weak year - on - year, so there are still expectations of policy support. The margin trading balance keeps growing, and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remains unchanged, which will continue to drive the index valuation repair [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于短期内全面降息的必要性不足，短期内市场利率下行空间 有限，国债期货继续上行的动能有所不足，8 月底至 9 月初的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation data in August showed a differentiated feature of "weak CPI and stable PPI". The year-on-year growth rate of CPI was lower than market expectations, mainly dragged down by a significant decline in food prices. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed, which was attributed to the initial effect of the "anti-involution" policy [1][6]. - For the bond market, the continuous recovery of core CPI for four months indicates that domestic demand is still moderately recovering, and the narrowing decline of PPI reflects that the "anti-involution" policy and the improvement of supply-demand relationship are taking effect. The ultimate impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation it brings can be supported by real demand [1][6]. - Negative inflation means a passive increase in real interest rates. Compared with the weak economic fundamentals and low investment returns, the current level of real interest rates is relatively high, so the central bank may still have the demand to "reduce the financing cost of the real economy" [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - Month CPI: Food Prices Significantly Drag, Core CPI Continuously Improves - The year-on-year turn of CPI negative in this month was mainly due to two factors: the high-base effect, with the carry-over effect of last year's price changes on this month's CPI year-on-year being about -0.9 percentage points, and the pull-down effect expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with last month; food prices were weaker than seasonal, with the month-on-month increase of food prices being 0.5%, about 1.1 percentage points lower than the seasonal level, and the price changes of pork, eggs, and fresh fruits all being weaker than seasonal [2][7]. - Although the overall performance of CPI was weak, core CPI showed resilience. The year-on-year increase of core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) was 0.9%, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The year-on-year increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy was 1.5%, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with last month, and the year-on-year increase of gold and platinum jewelry prices may be related to the rise in international gold prices; the year-on-year increase of service prices was 0.6%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with last month [2][7]. 3.2 8 - Month PPI: Year-on-Year Decline Narrows, the First Narrowing Since March This Year - PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with last month, the first narrowing since March this year. This was affected by the lower comparison base in the same period last year and the implementation of active and effective macro - policies in China [3][8]. - Consistent with the "purchase price of major raw materials" in the manufacturing PMI in August being in the expansion range, price transmission started from "upstream to mid - stream", but the downstream consumer goods end still lacked bargaining power. - The optimization of market competition order drove the narrowing of year-on-year price declines in related industries. The year-on-year price declines of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 10.3, 6.0, 3.2, 2.8, and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with last month, reducing the pull - down effect on PPI year-on-year by about 0.50 percentage points compared with last month, which was the main reason for the narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline [3][8]. - The new driving force of industry development drove the year-on-year price recovery of related industries. The prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing series increased by 1.1%, the prices of ship and related device manufacturing increased by 0.9%, the prices of communication system equipment manufacturing increased by 0.3%, and the prices of solid waste treatment equipment increased by 0.3% [3][8].