摘要今日周日(1月4日)休市。伦敦金收报3759.40美元/盎司，上涨11.27美元/元或0.30%，日内最高上探 3734.55美元/盎司，最低触及3734.28美元/盎司。 今日周日(1月4日)休市。伦敦金收报3759.40美元/盎司，上涨11.27美元/元或0.30%，日内最高上探 3734.55美元/盎司，最低触及3734.28美元/盎司。 若4300失守，则需关注4270-4250区域支撑，届时地缘溢价可能回吐，市场重心将转向非农数据与机构 调仓行为。 此外在周五非农数据公布前，投资者需注意周三发布的12月ADP私营部门就业数据，以及周四公布的当 周首次申领失业救济金人数以评估就业现状。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 黄金日线图上出现了顶背离，形态上也是上方压力受阻的样子，所以在未突破4400-4410这个关键阻力 位之前，大概率会走高位震荡。 金价在4400附近遇阻后，当前呈现头肩底右侧构筑形态，关键颈线位于4400-4410，下方关键支撑在 4300-4310。 若周初能站稳4300-4310并放量突破4400-4410，则上行空间打开，短期目标可看4500-4600。 【要闻速递】 美国费城联储主席 ...

保尔森表示，关于就业市场健康状况的"信号喜忧参半"，综合来看表明市场虽承压但未崩溃，她正等待 更多数据以明确形势。此番言论暗示她可能在支持进一步政策调整前，希望看到更多关于未来几个月经 济演变的证据。 编辑：马萌伟 她表示，当前3.5%至3.75%的利率目标区间仍"略显紧缩"，意味着该利率水平足以抑制通胀，这可能为 未来进一步降息创造条件。 根据公布的演讲文稿，保尔森称："若通胀缓解且经济保持既定轨道，今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进 行适度调整可能是适宜的。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月4日电 美国费城联储主席保尔森表示，若通胀降温，美联储或可进一步降息，但同时 暗示任何额外的降息举措可能不会立即出台。 保尔森在周六于费城发表的演讲中指出，她对未来几个月物价上涨压力可能缓解持谨慎乐观态度。今年 是她首次作为美联储政策委员会投票成员履职。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The US employment data continues to cool down, with weak employment growth and an increasing unemployment rate. The inflation data unexpectedly cools down, providing room for the expectation of interest rate cuts next year. The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years [1][2] - The current US Treasury market presents complex characteristics of both inflation stickiness and fiscal expansion pressure. It is recommended to prioritize defense, core - allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds, and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping a low allocation for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Macro - economy and Liquidity - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm employment increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000, mainly due to the significant shrinkage of federal government employment. The private sector's employment elasticity is insufficient [1] - The inflation in the US cools down. In November, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, which provides more room for future monetary policy adjustments and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by the resilience of consumer and corporate spending and more stable trade policies. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 3.5%, and corporate investment remained strong [2] Exchange Rate - No specific text - based content is provided, only information about related charts such as the one - year trend of non - US currencies, recent changes in non - US currencies, etc. [50][55] Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Information about the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), and the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are presented in the form of charts [63][65] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings [71]

Group 1: Asset Environment and Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities predicts that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, with the 10-year China bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% and the 10-year US Treasury yield maintaining a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel, while gold prices may continue to be strong, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and electricity demand [1] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Investment - Huatai Securities indicates that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign investors' interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive cycle for capital inflows and easing financial conditions [2] - The report notes that despite seasonal declines in capital flows and risk appetite towards the end of the year, the strengthening of the RMB will continue to boost the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged nearly 150% this year, driven by strong industrial demand, low global inventories, and its inclusion in key mineral lists [2] - Analysts suggest that silver is breaking away from its traditional role as a "by-product" of gold, with its independent investment logic being re-evaluated by the market [2] - Predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, especially if monetary instability increases [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Tokyo's inflation rate has shown a greater-than-expected decline, with the CPI rising 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.8% the previous month, primarily due to easing food price increases and lower energy costs [3] - Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, suggesting continued tightening of monetary policy [3] - The Japanese economy is expected to rebound from a contraction in Q3, with forecasts indicating production growth of 1.2% and 1.8% in December and January 2026, respectively [3] Group 5: Japanese Government Bond Issuance - The Japanese Finance Ministry plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds to the lowest level in 17 years, cutting nearly 20% from the previous fiscal year to approximately 17.4 trillion yen [4] - The total issuance of Japanese government bonds for the next fiscal year is projected to be 180.7 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly 5% from the current fiscal year [4] Group 6: South Korean Currency Intervention - The South Korean won has strengthened against the US dollar due to verbal interventions and measures from authorities, with the government expressing a firm commitment to alleviate pressure on the currency [4] - Recent measures may lead to a dollar sell-off of up to $23 billion, although there are risks that the outcomes may not meet expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's inflation rate has decreased more than expected in December, primarily due to easing pressures from food and energy prices, but this may not prevent the Bank of Japan from continuing to raise interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - In December, Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in the previous month [1][2]. - This marks the first inflation slowdown since August, attributed to a decrease in food price increases and lower energy costs [1][2]. - Analysts had previously anticipated a decline to 2.5%, while the overall inflation rate dropped from 2.7% to 2.0%, and the inflation rate excluding energy fell to 2.6% [1][2]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The Tokyo inflation data serves as a leading indicator for national trends [1][2]. - Despite the notable decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, suggesting that the central bank may continue to tighten its monetary policy [1][2].

新华财经北京12月26日电东京通胀降温幅度超出预期，随着食品和能源价格带来的压力减弱，但这不太 可能阻止日本央行继续加息。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较 前一个月的2.8%明显放缓。这是自8月以来首次出现通胀放缓，主要反映了食品价格涨幅趋缓以及能源 成本下降。此前经济学家预计该指标将放缓至2.5%。 整体通胀指标从上年同期的2.7%降至2.0%；而剔除能源价格的更深层通胀指标也放缓至2.6%。 东京的通胀数据通常被视为全国通胀走势的领先指标。尽管整体通胀数据明显放缓，但仍高于日本央行 的2%目标，使央行继续走在进一步收紧政策的轨道上。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

接受调查的经济学家预计，日本央行的加息频率大概在每六个月一次，终端利率料达到1.25%左右。这 意味着分析人士预计在本轮紧缩周期中，还将再加息两次左右。 责任编辑：王永生 东京通胀降温幅度超出预期，食品和能源价格压力缓解，但这不太可能阻止日本央行进一步加息。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数同比上涨2.3%，涨幅较上 月的2.8%大幅回落。这也是8月以来增速首次放缓，主要反映食品价格涨幅收窄及能源成本下降。经济 学家此前预计该数据将放缓至2.5%。 东京通胀降温幅度超出预期，食品和能源价格压力缓解，但这不太可能阻止日本央行进一步加息。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数同比上涨2.3%，涨幅较上 月的2.8%大幅回落。这也是8月以来增速首次放缓，主要反映食品价格涨幅收窄及能源成本下降。经济 学家此前预计该数据将放缓至2.5%。 整体通胀指标从前月的2.7%放缓至2%，而剔除能源价格的指标放缓至2.6%。东京通胀数据是衡量日本 全国物价趋势的领先指标。 周五数据发布之际，市场正密切关注日本物价走势，以判断下次政策调整的时机。上周，日本央行政策 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January are rising, the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has been digested and turned into a positive support, and the supply of copper ore is tight while the electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE remain at low levels [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, the LME copper price rose and then fell. On Friday (December 19, 2025), the SHFE copper price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the main 2602 contract was 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous trading day's closing price. The lower-than-expected US CPI data and the release of the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's 25 - basis - point interest rate hike on Friday pushed up the copper price [1]. - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a discount of 220 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2601 futures contract. The spot market trading was dull, downstream consumption was mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume was relatively limited. The spread between refined and scrap copper in major domestic markets declined, with 4040 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3977 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The US announced that the CPI in November was 2.7%, lower than both the market expectation of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, slightly lower than the market forecast of 225,000. The market believes that US inflation is showing signs of cooling [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, reaching a 30 - year high. The market remained calm as the rate hike was in line with expectations [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January is rising. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the negative impact has been exhausted and turned into a positive factor. Coupled with the tight supply of copper ore and the low - level electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE, the copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall [10].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a simultaneous cooling of inflation and employment, with November CPI falling to 2.7% year-on-year[10] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, marking five consecutive months of increases[10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates more than the market's current expectation of two cuts in 2026[1] Group 2: Small Business Outlook - Small businesses have faced significant profit pressure compared to large enterprises since the interest rate hike cycle began in 2022, but recent adjustments in profit expectations have narrowed the gap[2] - Small business valuations are at historical lows, suggesting potential for future rebounds, especially during a rate-cutting cycle[2] - The capital expenditure of tech giants is expected to positively impact the profitability of downstream small businesses, as historical data shows a strong correlation between overall capital expenditure and small business revenue[2] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - If inflation exceeds expectations, it may delay or limit the extent of interest rate cuts, weakening the financing improvement for small businesses[3] - Limited progress in capital expenditure or regulatory easing could constrain the profitability and valuation recovery of small businesses[3]

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a rare synchronized rebound driven by the Federal Reserve's policy shift and liquidity changes, with significant movements in the dollar, US stocks, oil prices, and base metals [1] - The rebound is characterized as not just a technical recovery but a revaluation of assets under a new macro narrative, with risk appetite returning as funds flow out of safe-haven assets [1] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which will reveal the economic impact of rate cuts, and the OPEC+ meeting, which will influence oil price risk premiums [1] Group 2 - The market is entering a verification period with a focus on data, policy, and industry dynamics, including the release of the US core PCE and China's industrial profits [2] - The macro sentiment supporting price increases includes expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and domestic growth policies [3] - Key metals like copper and tin are in a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum and lithium face high supply expectations, necessitating caution [4] Group 3 - The overall market strategy emphasizes leveraging pullbacks to invest in strong macro and supply-demand driven commodities like copper and gold, while remaining cautious on weaker fundamental commodities like nickel [5]