【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 昨日黄金日内震荡，晚间受到数据何必显得加持下，价格持续拉升，冲击4350一线阻力位。虽然短期承压回落，但避险居高不下。假设企稳4350会继续向上 发起攻击冲向4380再次刷新高。与此同时，昨日白银更是突破66关口，再次创下历史新高66.88。今日需要关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI 数据，明日需要关注日本央行。今明两天还是比较重要的，谨防下冲高回落。 如果CPI和PCE数据确认通胀降温，降息预期将进一步升温；如果委内瑞拉局势升级成冲突，避险需求会爆炸式增长。但要警惕美元反弹和美联储内部分歧 后回落。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。 结合白银今日还是主多为主。下方支撑4320附近，接近不破短多。假设震荡洗盘4306附近也可以多。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。上方接近 4360附近不破轻仓试空，进一步关注4380压制，周四周五需要警惕二次探高不破带来的回落。 本轮预测在12月21日（当日休市，可关注19号或22号），也就是冬至附近，黄金可能会有新的转折!（上次全网公开提前预测10月22日大跌兑现，不知大家 还有印象没有？） 【操 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is supporting gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, despite persistent inflation indicated by the September PCE price index exceeding the Fed's annual target [2]. - Fed officials believe that slowing hiring, moderate economic growth, and restrained wage increases will likely lead to a cooling of inflation in the coming months, supporting further easing policies [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $4205 per ounce, maintaining support at the $4200 level, with cautious optimism from bulls until the Fed's future rate cut path is clarified [1]. - The recent strong JOLTS job openings data did not alter the market's dovish expectations for the Fed, allowing gold to benefit as a non-yielding asset [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated that there will be no land concessions or painful compromises to end the war, which further supports demand for safe-haven metals like gold [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a familiar range, with a rebound from support levels indicating potential bullish momentum [5]. - A cautious approach is advised, suggesting to wait for gold to consistently hold above the resistance area of $4245-$4250 before taking long positions, with potential targets at $4277-$4300 [5]. - Conversely, if gold falls below the $4200 level, it may test support around $4170-$4165, and a clear break below this could lead to further declines towards $4115 [6].

【导读】美股集体收涨，存储芯片板块走强，中概股大涨；美联储 12 月降息概率保持高位，市场屏息等待下周议息会议 中国基金报记者 张舟 大家好，今天是周六，一起聚焦海外市场最新收盘表现与本周整体走势。 美东时间 12 月 5 日收盘，美股全天维持窄幅震荡格局，资金情绪相对谨慎，三大股指最终悉数小幅收涨。美股热门科技股涨跌互现， 存储芯片板块走强，中概股涨幅明显。 美联储方面，美国 9 月核心 PCE 通胀指标意外降温。市场认为，这可能会为下周美联储降息铺平道路。目前，市场对美联储 12 月降 息押注保持在 87% 的高位水平。 下一任美联储主席的热门人选哈塞特直言： " 现在是美联储再次谨慎降息的好时机。 " 下周，美联储 12 月议息会议即将举行，利率决议结果将于北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3:00 公布，这将是年底前影响市场走势 的关键事件。 美国三大股指涨幅扩大 12月5日，美股三大股指齐收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.22% ，报 47954.99 点；标普 500 指数上涨 0.19% ，报 6870.40 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.31% ，报 23578.13 ...

Core Points - Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.2% in October, down from 2.4% in September, primarily due to declining gasoline prices and easing food inflation [1] - Food price inflation decreased from 4.0% to 3.4%, while gasoline prices plummeted by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly widening from a 4.1% decline in September [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding the impact of carbon tax, improved to 2.7% from the previous 2.9%, although it remains above the overall inflation level [1] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The October inflation data indicates a continued decline, providing a strong rationale for the Bank of Canada to maintain current interest rates [1] - Economists suggest that the basic trend of inflation should only cause limited concern for the Bank of Canada [1][2] Interest Rate Outlook - Most economists expect interest rates to remain stable for the remainder of the year, given the high threshold for further rate cuts indicated by policymakers [2] - The Bank of Canada previously anticipated inflation would return to its 2% target, and the current data aligns with these expectations [2] Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable around 1.4025, supported by the current environment favoring the USD against the CAD [2] - The softening of oil prices continues to exert downward pressure on the commodity-linked CAD, providing additional support for the USD [2][3] Economic Context - The USD is in a relatively strong position compared to the CAD, with recent cautious yet hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials regarding further easing [3] - Concerns about the momentum of the US economy, exacerbated by a record government shutdown delaying data releases, have led to a cautious stance among USD bulls [3]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The US inflation is gradually cooling down as tariff disruptions diminish, with companies slow to pass on tariff costs, leading to a mild increase in prices of imported sensitive consumer goods [15][21][24] - AI remains a core engine driving earnings upgrades in the US stock market, with significant contributions from companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm [25][28][36] - The expected revenue growth for US tech companies in 2026 is robust, with a structural upward revision in earnings forecasts, particularly in the information technology sector [30][33] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK GDP growth is continuously slowing, with a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, necessitating interest rate cuts to support the economy [42][44] - Key stocks to watch include Rolls-Royce Holdings and AstraZeneca, both of which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and reduced tariff disruptions [49][50] - The UK stock market shows a notable performance disparity, with financial and defense sectors performing well, while consumer and energy sectors lag [48]

Core Viewpoint - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been inconsistent, leading to uncertainty in the market regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Caution - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that the current economic performance is stronger than expected, with most businesses showing confidence despite some credit tightening for low-income groups [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed that it is too early to draw conclusions about the December meeting, indicating that current policy is in a "neutral" state and further data is needed [3] Group 2: Increasing Support for Maintaining Rates - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that current interest rates have limited restrictive effects and should be maintained to continue cooling inflation, which may persist into early next year [4] - Boston Fed President Collins also advocated for keeping rates at current levels for some time, warning that strong economic growth could slow down inflation's decline [4] - Even traditionally dovish officials, such as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have shifted their stance recently [4] Group 3: Market Expectations Shift - Investor expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped to around 47%, a significant decrease from the near 100% expectation prior to the October meeting, indicating a reassessment of the Fed's policy direction [5] Group 4: Anticipated Divergence in December Meeting - Observers expect that regardless of the decision made in December, Fed Chair Powell may face more dissenting votes than usual, with two members already opposing the last meeting's decisions [6] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the need for "reverse suppression" of inflation, while Fed Vice Chair Jefferson advocated for caution in the absence of sufficient data [6]

Core Insights - A significant and unexpected cooling of inflation in the U.S. is indicated for October, primarily driven by a notable drop in housing rents, marking the largest monthly decline in fifteen years [1][3] - This trend challenges previous market expectations of persistent price stability and may provide new grounds for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish policy stance [1] - Alternative data sources are being closely monitored due to potential delays in the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1] Inflation Trends - According to CoStar, October saw a month-over-month rent decrease of 0.31%, the largest drop in over fifteen years [3] - OpenBrand's data shows that inflation rates for durable goods and personal items have significantly slowed due to increased retailer discounts, with a 0.22% rise in October compared to 0.48% in September [2] - The average discount rate in October reached 20.4%, nearing the highest level since July of the previous year [2] Housing Market Dynamics - The rental market is showing signs of weakness, with effective apartment rents in major markets like Denver, Austin, and Phoenix experiencing year-over-year declines of 8.1%, 7.4%, and 5.9%, respectively [6][7] - Invitation Homes reported negative growth in new lease rents for the first time since its IPO in 2017, indicating a broader trend in the single-family rental market [7] - Zillow has revised its rental growth forecasts for single-family homes down to 2.0% for 2026, with multi-family units expected to decline by 0.4% [9] Economic Implications - The ongoing decline in rental prices may signal further downward pressure on the overall real estate market, as rental prices serve as a long-term anchor for housing prices [11] - A significant drop in immigration job applications, which have decreased by 60% over the past four to five months, is linked to reduced rental demand, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance in the rental market [11] Inflation Resilience - Despite signs of cooling in rents and some commodity prices, Goldman Sachs' model suggests that core inflation remains resilient, estimating a 0.24% month-over-month increase in core CPI for October [14] - The model predicts price increases in used cars (+0.5%), new cars (+0.3%), airline tickets (+1%), and hotel prices (+1%), while forecasting a decline in auto insurance prices (-0.3%) [14] - The complexity of the overall inflation outlook necessitates caution among investors as they await potentially delayed official data to assess the true inflation trajectory [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Underperform" [1][6] Core Viewpoints - Inflation cooling and trade easing open up downward space for US Treasury yields. The September CPI data in the US was lower than expected, with core inflation slowing down, which boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October reached 98.9%, and the probability of another cut in December was 95.3% [1] - The October PMI data in the US exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience. The Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all improved compared to September and were better than expected, showing strong economic growth in the early fourth quarter [2] - China and the US reached a framework agreement on issues such as tariffs. The high - level economic and trade consultations effectively eased recent trade tensions and set a constructive tone for the upcoming APEC meeting between the two leaders [3] - Under the positive factors of "inflation cooling + dovish Fed + easing trade tensions", the downward space for US Treasury yields is further opened. It is recommended to maintain medium - to - short - term (2 - 5 years) US Treasuries as the core allocation, and investors with higher risk tolerance can moderately extend the duration to 5 years [4] Summary by Directory US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The September CPI data showed that overall CPI rose 3% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 3.1%, and core CPI also increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in October and December increased significantly [1] - The October PMI data showed that the manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all improved compared to September and were above the 50 boom - bust line, indicating strong economic growth at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] Exchange Rate - Not covered in the provided summary content Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the trends of returns, yields, and spreads of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023, classified by level and industry [75] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 10 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating revocations, 1 initial rating, 3 rating downgrades, and 1 rating upgrade [76]

Core Insights - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 99%, indicating a strong likelihood of monetary easing, which has led to a significant rally in global markets, particularly in U.S. equities reaching historical highs [1][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data shows a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, marking a decline for three consecutive months, suggesting easing inflation pressures [1]. - The decline in inflation provides the Federal Reserve with the necessary space to consider interest rate cuts, which were previously resisted due to inflation concerns [1][3]. Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of weakness, and U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, creating additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3]. - The employment market, while not experiencing a significant rise in unemployment, still shows a high unemployment rate, indicating a need for economic stimulus through interest rate cuts [3]. A-Share Market Outlook - Historical context suggests that the A-share market may not replicate the previous year's rally following a Federal Reserve rate cut signal, as the current market conditions differ significantly [4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently around 3900 points, compared to last year's lower starting point, making a rapid ascent to 5000 points more challenging [5][7]. - The driving forces behind market movements have shifted; last year's rally was fueled by both policy support and U.S. rate cuts, while current market sentiment is less responsive to external stimuli [7]. Investment Implications - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is viewed as a medium-term positive for the market, with expectations that global risk appetite may increase, potentially benefiting emerging markets, including A-shares [9]. - The market may experience a gradual upward trend, with a focus on breaking through the psychological barrier of 4000 points, contingent on sustained confidence and capital inflows [9]. - Investment strategies should prioritize low-valued stocks and solid growth companies, avoiding overvalued speculative stocks [10].