1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated strongly. In terms of supply, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing steadily, with the expectation of increased production in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term smelters in China still face raw material supply pressure, and processing fees are at historical lows. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is still at a low level. In terms of demand, domestic off - season consumption remains poor, with overall weak orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. In June, the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises declined significantly compared to May, while overseas demand for tin continues to be strong driven by AI computing power. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly this week. As of July 18, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,096 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last Friday. Overall, the tin supply is at a low level, and the demand side is also weak. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing. A resumption meeting was held this week, and some mining license applications were approved. Tin ore production is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure, processing fees are at historical lows, and the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remain low [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [11]. - **Demand**: Off - season consumption is poor, with weak overall orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July have also declined significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the market is waiting and watching. The demand for tin in the tin - plating and chemical industries is relatively stable [11]. - **Conclusion**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, despite the current low - level supply and weak demand [11][12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents the charts of the basis of Shanghai Tin main - contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is provided [19][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report shows the charts of tin export and import profits, but no specific analysis content is provided [25][26]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the charts of China's social inventory and LME inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [28]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain low [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Imports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51% [11]. - **Refined Tin Production**: Affected by the shortage of raw materials and low processing fees, the domestic refined tin production in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Imports and Exports of Unforged Non - Alloy Tin**: In May, 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominates, and the increase comes from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption has also driven the growth of tin consumption, but the overall growth rate is lower than that in China, showing a trend of stronger domestic and weaker overseas consumption [51]. - **Semiconductor Sales**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. However, the component production schedule in June decreased significantly compared to the previous month [62]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods appliances, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in July was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous year; and the production schedule of washing machines was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year [70].

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the futures market for tin is experiencing a slight price increase, attributed to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, although challenges remain due to seasonal rains, earthquakes, and low inventory levels [1] Group 2 - Short-term tin prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate, while the medium to long-term outlook remains uncertain [1]

【市场资讯】 7月7日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锡注册仓单1445吨，注销仓单640吨，减少25吨；锡库存2085吨， 减少25吨。 7月4日沪锡期货库存录得7198.00吨，较上一交易日增加243.00吨。 数据显示，7月7日上海1#锡锭现货价格报价266800.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（263520.00元/吨） 升水3280.00元/吨。 （7月7日）今日全国锡价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 266850元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 267000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 266800元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | 期货市场上看，7月7日收盘，沪锡期货主力合约报263520.00元/吨，跌幅2.03%，最高触及268100.00元/ 吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to seasonal demand weakness and the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar, leading to a significant price drop at the end of May [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side remains a key focus, with rumors of resumed tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region contributing to price declines. The International Tin Association reported that production in Wa has fully resumed since late April, with the first batch receiving export permits by the end of May [2][3]. - China's tin concentrate imports hit a near-record low in April, with the Democratic Republic of Congo surpassing Myanmar as the largest source of imports. The recovery of Myanmar's production is expected to take time to reach historical capacity levels [2][3]. - As of the end of May, processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi have dropped to their lowest levels in five years, indicating tightening supply affecting smelting profits. The overall refined tin supply may tighten due to reduced imports and ongoing inventory consumption [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Despite some resilience in demand, the overall performance is mixed. The photovoltaic sector shows growth, while the semiconductor industry has seen production increases but faces weakening in end-product demand [3][4]. - The PVC sector is operating at high rates but is experiencing significant losses, and the real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for PVC and related products [3][4]. - Domestic tin social inventory continues to decline and is at historically low levels, with increased replenishment willingness observed as prices drop significantly [3][4]. Market Outlook - The outlook for June indicates that while short-term price stabilization may occur, uncertainties regarding tariffs and the anticipated recovery in supply, coupled with marginal demand declines, will likely exert downward pressure on tin prices [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent significant decline in tin prices, with macroeconomic factors indicating a slowdown in US economic growth and prolonged maintenance of current interest rates by the Federal Reserve [1] - Domestic policies promoting equipment upgrades and old-for-new exchanges are boosting demand for non-ferrous metals in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Import Dynamics - Myanmar accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports, with imported tin ore constituting 47% of domestic supply [1] - In April 2025, China's tin ore imports were 0.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1] - Cumulative tin ore imports from January to April 2025 totaled 3.67 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98% [1] - The ban on tin mining in Myanmar since August 2023 has led to persistently low import volumes, exacerbated by unstable import profitability and regional conflicts [1] Group 3: Processing and Refining Impact - Tight supply of tin ore has resulted in a 40% drop in processing fees, with Yunnan's tin concentrate processing fees falling from 17,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Processing fees are now near the cost line for some enterprises, leading to production cuts [1] - As of May 23, 2025, the operating rate of tin refining plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.44%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 4: Demand and Industry Trends - Tin solder demand accounts for 68% of the market, with the semiconductor sector representing 80% of tin solder demand [2] - In April 2025, domestic tin solder enterprises had an operating rate of 76.7%, a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations [2] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 11%, potentially driving global tin demand up by 4.4% [2] Group 5: Inventory and Price Outlook - Domestic tin market is entering a destocking phase, with Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory at 8,445 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous week [3] - LME tin inventory also decreased by 70 tons to 2,665 tons [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, semiconductor industry growth provides some support for the tin market [3] - Current prices are approaching tariff and cost lows, with potential for strategic buying below 258,000 yuan/ton, targeting mid-term and long-term prices of 290,000 yuan/ton and 330,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between current supply tightness and future supply expectations, limiting upward price movement [1] - The main supply issue is characterized by a tight domestic tin mining situation, with smelting plant operating rates remaining low at 56.85% in key provinces [1] - Demand is showing signs of weakness, particularly among small and medium enterprises, with pessimistic expectations for future demand due to tariffs and semiconductor cycles [1] Group 2 - Overall consumption lacks momentum, but basic consumption remains stable, with some recovery in exports of terminal goods [2] - The domestic tin supply remains tight, with expectations for increased imports due to overseas restarts [2] - The macroeconomic impact is diminishing, and the fundamental market lacks strong drivers, suggesting that short-term tin prices may experience fluctuations and adjustments [2]