Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of appropriate investor management and the need for professional investors to interpret research reports accurately to avoid potential investment losses [1][2]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide insights specifically for professional investors, highlighting the necessity of understanding the context of the reports [2]. - The materials are intended solely for recognized professional investors and should not be used by ordinary investors due to the risk of misinterpretation [2]. - The article notes that the opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [2].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank financial institution deposits in May, reaching 1.19 trillion yuan, is the highest for the same period in nearly a decade, raising concerns about the implications for the banking sector and the broader financial system [1] Group 1: Analysis of Non-Bank Deposits - The monthly surge in non-bank deposits does not necessarily indicate a sustained large-scale migration of bank deposits to non-bank institutions. Factors such as economic growth and the attractiveness of bank deposits still play a crucial role in deposit behavior [3] - In the context of China's economy, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, the current interest rate environment does not create a significant incentive for deposit migration, as evidenced by an increase in resident deposits by 0.47 trillion yuan in May [3] Group 2: Impact on Financing Structure - The growth of non-bank deposits can optimize China's financing structure and better serve the real economy. While non-bank deposits are typically short-term and volatile, they do not impose reserve requirement pressures on banks, thus maintaining a loose market liquidity [4] - Non-bank deposits ultimately flow into bond and stock markets, enhancing the supply of funds for direct financing and supporting the transformation and upgrading of the real economy [4] Group 3: Effects on Bond Market - The significant monthly increase in non-bank deposits may not disrupt the bond market, as the impact is influenced by various factors including investment strategies of non-bank institutions. Historical data shows no significant bond market fluctuations following previous increases in non-bank deposits [5] - Non-bank institutions are required to invest prudently to meet investor return expectations and align with policy directions, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation while managing risks effectively [5]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]

Summary of Financial Data for May 2025 Industry Overview - The financial data for May 2025 indicates a significant impact from government financing, particularly through special treasury bonds and local government bonds, which have contributed notably to social financing [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Financing Support**: Government financing remains a primary support for social financing, with special treasury bonds and local government bonds providing strong backing. The fiscal expenditure has been more robust compared to the same period in previous years [3]. 2. **Short-term Loans Increase**: There has been a year-on-year increase in short-term loans for enterprises, likely due to heightened short-term funding needs following tariff relaxations. This trend mirrors data from March 2025 [2][4]. 3. **Corporate Bond Financing Growth**: The issuance of technology innovation bonds has driven an increase in corporate bond financing, indicating a positive trend in this area [2][4]. 4. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite the increase in short-term loans, medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain low, reflecting a weak investment sentiment among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [2][4]. 5. **Non-bank Deposit Growth**: Non-bank deposits have continued to show high growth, potentially due to a shift of private sector deposits towards wealth management and other non-bank assets following a reduction in deposit rates [2][5]. 6. **M1 Growth Recovery**: The M1 money supply has seen a rebound in growth, driven by an increase in corporate demand deposits, aligning with the rise in short-term loans [2][5]. 7. **Concerns Over Deposit Trends**: The trend of converting current deposits into fixed-term deposits among government agencies has not shown significant improvement, which may affect future government procurement activities [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of financial data in May 2025 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing scale surpassing forecasts. Although new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, the actual performance, excluding bill financing, was still strong [2][6]. - The sustained high level of fund inflows from non-bank institutions has provided considerable support to the market, contributing to the positive overall financial data for the month [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF focuses heavily on the insurance sector, with a weight of 70% in the index, providing a unique asset allocation opportunity in the market [6][14] - The valuation levels of the index are low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.62 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.99, indicating a significant safety margin and potential for appreciation [6][32][35] - The index shows strong profitability with a dividend yield of 3.18%, reflecting robust earnings capacity and long-term investment value [6][45] - The insurance industry is experiencing high-quality development driven by favorable policies, with total premium income expected to grow from CNY 2.4 trillion in 2015 to CNY 5.7 trillion by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9% [53][54] - The report highlights the increasing concentration of leading securities firms, driven by regulatory pressures and mergers, enhancing their competitive edge [62][64] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Value Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index - The index has a high concentration in the insurance sector, with a weight increase from 60.04% to 70.10% [14][22] - Valuation metrics indicate a favorable investment environment, with historical P/E and P/B ratios at the 21.50% and 45.00% percentiles, respectively [32][35] - The index's strong dividend yield and earnings per share (EPS) growth demonstrate its long-term investment potential [45][46] 2. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The insurance sector is guided by policies aimed at high-quality development, focusing on risk prevention and product innovation [48][49] - The total premium income in the insurance industry is projected to grow significantly, with life insurance accounting for over 70% of the total [53][54] - Regulatory trends are encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, leading to the emergence of "leading" securities firms [62][64] 3. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF Product Introduction - The ETF has shown strong liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of CNY 314 million, indicating high market interest [6][7] - The ETF's performance is notable, with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, outperforming similar products [7][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent capital increase of Tenpay to 22.3 billion RMB reflects the regulatory requirements and the company's commitment to enhancing its financial foundation and market competitiveness [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Tenpay's registered capital was approved to increase to 22.3 billion RMB, marking a significant rise from 15.3 billion RMB earlier this year, which was an increase of 1,430% from its original 1 billion RMB [3][4]. - This is the second capital increase for Tenpay in 2024, with a cumulative increase of 2,130% since its initial capital [3][4]. - The increase in capital is seen as a response to the new regulatory framework for non-bank payment institutions, aimed at strengthening compliance and operational capabilities [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - At least five payment institutions, including Douyin Pay and LeShua Pay, have also completed capital increases this year, indicating a trend among major players to bolster their financial positions [2][4]. - The implementation of the "Non-Bank Payment Institutions Supervision Management Regulations" has raised the minimum registered capital requirements for payment institutions, pushing many to increase their capital [4]. - The payment industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with leading players increasing capital while smaller institutions face license cancellations due to insufficient capital [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with major players like Tenpay and Alipay holding 90% of the market share, while smaller institutions struggle to compete [5][6]. - The exit of weaker players from the market is expected to continue, leading to a more competitive landscape where remaining institutions will need to innovate and expand their service offerings [6].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 06 月 17 日 低估值叠加优异基本面，港股非银标的彰显配置价值 ——广发中证港股通非银 ETF 投资价值分析 在相关政策引领提振下，自 2024 年 9 月以来资本交易市场相对活跃，广泛地 利好了保险企业、证券公司和交易所的相关业务。其中，保险业除了在资产端 受益于资本市场以外，其负债端业务近年也保持稳中有进的增长态势。结合香 港市场部分个股的稀缺性，港股通之中的非银行金融股票呈现出一定的投资价 值。广发中证港股通非银 ETF（513750.OF），通过紧密跟踪港股通非银指 数，可一键式配置香港上市的非银行金融标的，值得投资者关注。 专题报告 ❑ 在保险行业的负债端，长期来看，随着人口老龄化趋势的发展以及保险配 置理念深入人心，国内的保险市场总量维持着稳步增长。短期来看，寿险 和产险保费也分别在寿险需求高增和新能源车快速发展的催化下维持着有 效增长。而在资产端，当前市场对关税摩擦的极度悲观预期已经修复，对 应全球受损贸易链条正在修复，资本市场风险偏好呈现短期回升。 ❑ 此外，自 2024 年 9 月以来，资本交易相对活跃，港交所近 3 个月的成交 额与去年同比增长 ...

Group 1 - The meeting of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in Madrid discussed global financial system vulnerabilities, non-bank financial intermediation, crypto assets, climate-related financial risks, and risk management [1] - The appointment of Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, as the new Chair of the FSB was approved during the meeting [1] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, expressed appreciation for the outgoing Chair, Klaas Knot, for his effective leadership and contributions [1] Group 2 - Lu Lei held discussions with the Chair of the FSB's Standards Implementation Committee and the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, regarding international financial regulatory standards and peer reviews [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index (931024) experienced a decline of 0.56% as of June 12, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF (513750) recorded a turnover of 27.29% and a trading volume of 659 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF reached a new high in size at 2.4 billion yuan and in shares at 1.672 billion, both since its inception [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index accounted for 82.79%, with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) being the largest at over 16% [2] - The brokerage sector is expected to see continued growth in self-operated income, supported by performance improvements, mergers, and refinancing, which may enhance net asset scale and ROE [2] - The current favorable policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market are expected to positively influence the securities sector's outlook [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF (513750) is the first and only ETF tracking the Hong Kong Non-Bank Index, with over 70% of its composition in insurance stocks [3] - The ETF selects up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme criteria from the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities range [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has approved an increase in the registered capital of Tenpay Technology Co., Ltd. to 22.3 billion yuan, marking the second capital increase in 2024 and solidifying its position as the highest registered capital payment institution in China [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - Tenpay's registered capital increased from 1 billion yuan to 15.3 billion yuan in March 2024, and now stands at 22.3 billion yuan, surpassing the second-ranked payment institution by nearly 18 billion yuan [2]. - The increase in capital reflects regulatory recognition of Tenpay's development and its commitment to investing in technological innovation, service quality, and payment security [2]. - Tenpay supports WeChat Pay and QQ Wallet by providing secure underlying technology for online transactions [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - Since the implementation of the Non-Bank Payment Institutions Supervision Management Regulations in May 2022, several payment companies have increased their registered capital, altering the rankings of leading non-bank payment institutions [3]. - The second-ranked institution is PayPal's subsidiary with a registered capital of 4.52 billion yuan, followed by Du Xiaoman Payment at 4 billion yuan, and Douyin Payment at 3.15 billion yuan [3]. - Alipay, under Ant Group, has not increased its registered capital since last year, remaining at 1.5 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Non-Bank Payment Institutions Supervision Management Regulations set a minimum registered capital requirement of 1 billion yuan, which is deemed insufficient for effective regulation of leading payment institutions [3]. - The regulations introduce a classification and rating system for non-bank payment institutions, emphasizing the importance of systemic risk management [4]. - The capital increase for payment institutions is influenced by transaction volumes and regulatory requirements, with Tenpay holding an 80-90% market share in offline mobile payments [4][7].