实物资产：脆弱的供给与恢复的需求 本周（2025 年 9 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，下同）大宗商品铜的供给端发生重大扰动，全球第二大铜矿印尼 Grasberg 铜矿遭遇不可抗力停产（2024 年铜矿产量越占全球的 3.5%），引发了铜价快速上涨。在关税政策驱动下美国锁定了大 量铜库存的背景下，总量上看似短期过剩的供需格局下结构上其实已经非常紧张，本次 Grasberg 铜矿停产可能导致 2025 年 Q4 及 2026 年供给侧进一步的收缩，这为将来制造业需求修复时的价格弹性埋下伏笔。从另一视角来看，当前 全球金属铜市场的震动同样也是贸易格局重塑与供给约束下全球实物资产供应链脆弱性的缩影，也是以大宗商品为代 表的实物资产中长期价值重估的来源。而短期需求侧，美国 2025 年 9 月标普全球 PMI、8 月地产销售、耐用品订单表 现均超预期，PCE 符合预期，这意味着对于资源品而言影响供需的数据都相对健康，约束"降息"的数据又都在放松。 当然也需要关注，受美国"抢出口"热度退坡影响，欧洲主要国家 9 月制造业 PMI 则出现边际下滑，未来财政政策的 具体落地路径是重要观测。值得一提的是，部分前 ...

Core Viewpoints - The judgment that the small-level adjustment wave of A-shares has not ended is being validated, with no medium-term downside risk and the short-term adjustment not being of a large scale. After the adjustment, a "red October" is highly probable due to the approaching long-term policy layout period and ongoing technological catalysts, with short-term price-performance adjustments likely to be resolved soon [1][5][6] Market Adjustment and Outlook - The current market is undergoing a small-level adjustment since early September, with the core issue being the lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology structural bull market are limited, leading to market resistance in the upward movement as it digests price-performance issues [5][6] - The adjustment is unfolding, and it is emphasized that there will not be a large-scale adjustment in the short term. The core reason is that there is no real downside risk in the medium term. Economic improvement in the second half of 2025 and further policy efforts are expected to support the upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][5][6] Expectations for October - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment will be conducive to stabilizing and improving capital market expectations. Potential catalysts are being evaluated dynamically, with a focus on the demand side looking towards a new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026, while supply-side clearing is expected in mid-2026 [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts for Q4 2025 are relatively limited, but the technological industry continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI, which has not yet reached its boundaries. The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology industry, and the structural heat may re-energize in October [6][9] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, the technological industry is expected to have significantly more catalysts than cyclical ones, although there may be short-term price-performance issues in technology growth. The trend in technology growth may continue, eventually leading to a long-term low price-performance area [6][7] - Spring 2026 may represent a phase peak for the A-share market, facing challenges such as the arrival of a key verification period on the demand side and the potential delay in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak. New structural highlights may still need time to emerge, and the long-term price-performance of the technology industry may reach low levels [7][9] Structural Outlook - The trend in technology growth is expected to dominate, with better performance in high-low switches within technology than between growth and value. New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with mid-term market space remaining for technology sectors that have already accumulated certain gains [9][10] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is crucially linked to the anti-involution trend, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals. The mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, benefiting from the strengthening of "Trump's interest rate cut bullish options" and the fermentation of new economic industry trends [9][10]

(本文来自第一财经) 光大证券研报表示，港股整体盈利能力相对较强，同时互联网、新消费、创新药等资产相对稀缺。此 外，尽管港股已经连续多月上涨，但是整体估值仍然偏低，长期配置性价比仍较高。在AI产业趋势持 续发展，以及美联储降息周期开启背景下，港股市场未来或许将继续震荡上行。可关注科技成长及高股 息占优的"哑铃"策略。 ...

Group 1: Company Strategies and Developments - Bright Dairy is enhancing its product offerings by launching new products like Youbei 5.0 ultra-fresh milk and high-protein products to meet consumer demand and stabilize market share [1] - ST Juewei is currently operating normally and aims to apply for the removal of risk warnings after fulfilling certain conditions, following a regulatory investigation [2] - Jinzi Ham plans to invest up to 300 million RMB to acquire up to 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics, recognizing the growth potential in the AI and optical communication sectors [3] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Updates - The State Council's Food Safety Office has issued directives to ensure food safety during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, focusing on the regulation of seasonal food products [4] - Changjiang International Trade Group's acquisition of Good Products has received unconditional approval from the market supervision authority, with the share transfer agreement set at 12.34 RMB per share [5][6] - Wanchen Group has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the process still subject to regulatory approvals [11][12] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Trends - Bawang Tea has opened its largest "Super Tea Warehouse" in Hong Kong and plans to launch over ten new stores in the coming months to expand its market presence [7] - Yonghui Supermarket has completed the renovation of its Daxing District store, adopting the "Fat Donglai model" and significantly increasing the proportion of new products [9] - Pang Donglai clarified that the design cost for its Mid-Autumn Festival mooncake packaging was 3.72 million RMB, countering claims of a 10 million RMB expense [10]

9月22日至26日，深圳欧陆通电子股份有限公司（债券代码：123241，债券简称：欧通转债）通过线上 会议或券商策略会的形式，接受了景林资产、东方财富证券等15家机构的调研。公司副总经理、董事会 秘书蔡丽琳，投资者关系经理许业凯、杨帅参与接待。以下为本次投资者关系活动的主要内容。 其他电源业务上半年营收3.23亿元，同比增长0.41%。全球电动工具市场需求疲软，公司通过开拓新领 域产品布局和导入新客户，保持了收入平稳。该业务毛利率为18.58%，同比减少1.20个百分点，主要因 部分新产品导入初期毛利率较低。 2025年上半年业绩稳健增长 2025年上半年，全球经济面临多重挑战，增长动能趋缓。在此背景下，欧陆通锚定战略目标，深耕开关 电源领域，保持稳健发展。 报告期内，公司实现营业收入21.20亿元，同比增长32.59%。其中，第二季度营收12.32亿元，同比增长 36.39%，环比增长38.71%，创单季度营收新高。数据中心电源业务的高速增长，尤其是高功率服务器 电源收入的显著提升，成为营收增长的主要动力。 毛利率方面，上半年公司毛利率为20.31%，同比减少0.64个百分点。尽管公司优化了客户及产品结构， ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a collective surge, with institutions indicating that semiconductor equipment should not be viewed merely as a rebound, as it is a core asset for AI [1] - The U.S. BIS sanctions on Chinese second-hand semiconductor equipment companies represent a significant marginal change, while China's anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chips indicates a shift away from negotiations, with domestic substitution becoming a major trend [1] - The establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) marks the beginning of new investments, with the first investment in Tuojing Technology [1] Group 2 - The advanced logic and advanced memory sectors are expected to see upward momentum by 2026, with Longsys' third phase expected to expand production significantly, targeting advanced process nodes and 3D DRAM [1] - The demand for equipment is driven by the AI wave, with significant year-to-date increases in stock prices for companies like LAM and KLA, which have risen by 70% and 58% respectively [2] - The A-share equipment sector is considered part of the AI investment category, with the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index on the STAR Market rising by 6.45% [2] Group 3 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the STAR Market semiconductor materials and equipment theme index account for 71.5% of the index, including companies like Huahai Qingke and Zhongwei Company [3]

分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《波动降低后是更好的参与时机》 - 2025.09.15 策略观点 降息交易(1)：降息之后的资产定价机制 ⚫ 投资要点 发布时间：2025-09-25 大盘指数 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 美国联邦基金期货市场对美联储有着极强的降息预期。根据计算 得到的预期利率变动，美国联邦基金期货市场的交易员们认为美联储 将在未来 6 个月降息 85bp，在未来 12 个月降息 125bp。在美联储 9 月议息会议宣布降息 25bp 后，交易员们对未来美联储的政策路径预 期并没有发生改变，此前的预期是 6 个月降息 110bp 和 12 个月降息 150bp，可以认为美联储的本次降息幅度完全在市场的预期内，并且 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的讲话也并未改变市场预期。 ...

华泰证券指出，电子布是PCB-CCL产业链的关键增强材料，AI产业趋势推动高端PCB及其相关上游材 料升级，特种电子布有三大产品升级趋势。市场担忧龙头公司大规模扩产造成特种电子布供给格局恶 化，但华泰证券测算后认为2025年各类特种电子布产品均处在供给紧缺的状态，LowDK-2和LowCTE的 供给紧缺仍将持续到2026年。同时预计2026年Q布有望迎来量产元年。关注具备全产品矩阵布局、产能 扩张快速的公司。 ...

Summary of Special Electronic Fabric Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The special electronic fabric market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2026 and 20 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth in LCTE and Q fabric products [1][2] - Leading companies such as Zhongtai Technology, Honghe Technology, and Feirongda are identified as having long-term development opportunities [1][2] Key Trends and Developments - Recent expansion plans by leading companies like Zhonglai Technology and Nitobor have significantly impacted market supply and demand dynamics, particularly after August [3] - Domestic companies have rapidly developed, with monthly production capacity exceeding 6 million meters, capturing over 60% market share as of August 2025 [4][13] - The demand for special electronic fabrics in the AI industry is growing rapidly, with low-end electronic fabric market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2026 [10] Technical Barriers - The industry faces several technical barriers, including raw material formulation and control of kiln temperatures during the manufacturing process [6][12] - Continuous R&D and iteration capabilities are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [6] Domestic Equipment and Cost Reduction - The domestic equipment localization process has accelerated, with about 40% of the complete process equipment now domestically sourced, significantly reducing costs [9] - This shift is expected to promote the development of the fiberglass and carbon fiber industries [9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to face significant barriers, particularly for LDK2 and LOST products, which are in high demand but have limited production capabilities [14] - The market for CT products is projected to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2026, driven by supply constraints and significant demand growth [29] Company Highlights - Zhongcai Technology is highlighted for its leading position in domestic replacement, with plans to increase production capacity significantly [38][39] - Zhengtai Technology has made rapid progress in Q fabric products, with monthly shipments nearing 100,000 meters [40] - Jushi Group is expanding its production capacity and is confident in entering the special electronic fabric market [41] - Guangyuan New Materials and Honghe Technology are focusing on high-end electronic fabrics, with significant progress in production capacity [42] Market Competition - The market is currently dominated by overseas companies like Nitto Denko, which holds about 30% market share, while domestic companies are gradually increasing their presence [37] - The competition is expected to intensify as domestic companies improve their technology and production capabilities [37] Future Outlook - The demand for Q fabric is expected to grow significantly, with companies like Feili Hua and Zhongcai being key suppliers [53] - The overall supply-demand balance in the special electronic fabric industry is projected to remain tight, with price fluctuations anticipated for various products [54] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the special electronic fabric industry, highlighting market trends, technical challenges, and company developments.

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is attracting significant interest from various companies, including Jinzi Ham, which is diversifying into this sector through a substantial investment in Zhongsheng Microelectronics [2][4]. Investment Details - Jinzi Ham plans to invest up to 300 million yuan to acquire up to 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics, driven by the growth potential in the AI and optical communication sectors [2][4]. - The investment will occur in two rounds, with the first round involving 100 million yuan based on a pre-investment valuation of Zhongsheng Microelectronics between 1 billion and 1.3 billion yuan [4][5]. - Zhongsheng Microelectronics, founded in 2019, specializes in high-speed optical module core chip design and has been recognized in the "China Future Unicorn TOP100" list for two consecutive years [4]. Financial Performance - Zhongsheng Microelectronics reported revenue of 51,110 yuan and a net loss of 20.37 million yuan in the first seven months of the year, with a total loss of 38.83 million yuan for the previous year [4]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved from 84.70% at the end of last year to 17.83% by the end of July this year [4]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the investment, Jinzi Ham's stock price surged by 9.94% to 7.85 yuan per share, with a market capitalization increase of over 800 million yuan in a single day [3][6]. Company Background - Jinzi Ham, under the leadership of Zheng Qingsheng, has a history of cross-industry ventures, having previously attempted to diversify into various sectors, including healthcare and finance, with mixed results [7][10]. - The company has seen a decline in revenue since reaching a peak of 710 million yuan in 2020, with a reported revenue of 170 million yuan in the first half of 2025, down 14.73% year-on-year [10][12].