EnglishItalianoEspañolPortuguêsDeutschالعربيةFrançaisImportant DisclaimersFXEmpire is owned and operated by Empire Media Network LTD., Company Registration Number 514641786, registered at 7 Jabotinsky Road, Ramat Gan 5252007, Israel. The content provided on this website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and materials provided by third parties. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be interpreted a ...

摘要 2026年2月10日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.35，较2月3日下降0.05。具体来 看，截至2月10日的一周内，服务业相关指标"8城市地铁流量指数"和"30城市商品房销售指数"分别下降 0.02和0.07；工业相关指标"沿海煤炭运价指数"走低0.27，是本周YHEI回落的重要原因。 国家统计局公布1月物价数据。1月，CPI同比增长0.2%，增速低于上月0.6个百分点。其中，1月，核心 CPI同比增长0.8%，增速低于上月0.4个百分点；食品CPI同比增速在过去两个月有所上升后，当月走低 至-0.7%。具体看食品方面，春节错期是1月食品CPI同比回到负增长区间的重要原因。1月，猪肉、蛋类 和奶类价格均同比下降，当月分别下降13.7%、9.2%和0.8%。鲜菜、水产品和鲜果价格同比增速分别由 上月的18.2%、1.6%和4.4%降至6.9%、0.7%和3.2%。其他指标方面，同样受到春节错期影响，1月，旅 行社及其他旅游服务、邮递服务和家政服务价格分别同比下降6.6%、1.6%和3.5%。环比来看，1月， CPI增长0.2%，增速与上月持平。其中，消费品价格环比增速低于上月0.1个 ...

Monica, let's just start with that headline number, Inflation appearing to be under control. What are the implications here for the RBI and fiscal plans as well. Good morning, Paula.Well, the implications are that the RBI is expected to remain on hold for an extended period of time. That number, as you pointed out, came in at 2.75%, close to the consensus number of 2.77%. As for the Bloomberg analysts and economists, Paul, and like I said, you know, despite the fact that it is well within the targeted range ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the complexities and high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2026/2/13 CPI环比弱于季节性，PPI同比降幅收窄 ——1月通胀数据点评 | 证券分析师： | 徐超 | | --- | --- | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190521050001 | | 证券分析师： | 戴梓涵 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524110003 | 报告摘要 事件：2月11日，国家统计局公布数据显示，2026年1月，全国居民消费价格(CPI) 同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%， 剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅较上月收窄0.5个百 分点，环比上涨0.4%。 一、CPI同比涨幅收窄，环比弱于季节性 1月份CPI同比上涨0.2%，涨幅较上月收窄0.6个百分点，0.2%的涨幅中，翘尾因素影响为0%，较上月下降0.2个百分 点，可见物价是导致CPI同比降幅收窄的主要原因，本月CPI表现低于市场预期，考虑到今年春节错月，去年同期基 数较高，扣除波动较大的食品能源价格的核心CPI同比增长0.8%，涨幅较上月收窄0.4个百分点，环比增长0.3%，涨 幅为最近六个月新高。1月CP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is highly volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long - term positions, while silver requires cautious participation [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin suggest waiting for stable buying opportunities. Aluminum is expected to be range - bound, and alumina has upward potential [2][4]. - In the industrial silicon market, the fundamentals show a situation of both weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to close positions in rebar, iron ore, and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and corn futures are expected to show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [7]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - term weak fluctuations and medium - term improvement opportunities [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last night, precious metals fell rapidly. The Shanghai Gold 2604 contract barely held the 1100 - yuan mark, and the Shanghai Silver 2604 contract fell below the 20000 - yuan mark [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary's decision and concerns about AI investment led to drops in U.S. technology stocks and precious metals. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various places [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious with silver [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices weakened significantly yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: U.S. stock market decline, concerns about AI, dollar strengthening, tight copper ore supply, and the Spring Festival off - peak season affecting demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stable buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.20% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 206 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to subsequent maintenance and shutdown situations as the price has upward potential [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.42% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable furnace - opening quantity and an overall start - up rate of 22.36%. Both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, with expected production declines [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8800 yuan. Consider short - selling at high prices if the large - scale production reduction is short - term [4] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 was 149,420 yuan/ton (- 840), a closing price decrease of 0.56% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in the prices of lithium - related products, production and inventory changes in the lithium salt industry, and expected production declines in downstream materials [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [4] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 49015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.43% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production and inventory, changes in the production schedules of downstream products, and positive factors in the demand side [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The main contract is expected to weakly fluctuate between 45000 - 53000 yuan [4] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices weakened significantly yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Similar to copper, including U.S. stock market decline, dollar strengthening, and tight tin ore supply, along with a significant increase in domestic warehouse receipts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stable buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3056 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in building material apparent demand and production, weak demand expectations but limited supply, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [6] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 759.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in iron ore inventory and molten iron production, neutral supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [6] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1121 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in molten iron production, weak supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1140 yuan [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, reflecting the expectation of good U.S. soybean exports [7]. - **Fundamentals**: South American bumper harvest expectation, strong U.S. soybean crushing and increasing export expectations, and an overall improving U.S. soybean supply - demand but a globally loosening supply - demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to China's purchase of U.S. soybeans and South American production realization; the domestic market is weaker and range - bound [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are strong, and spot prices are stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales are completed, with limited sales pressure. However, the selling mentality in the Northeast has changed, and downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory at low prices [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and slightly strong due to policy disturbances [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market is short - term weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A 14% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in January, a 11% month - on - month increase in exports, and a 7.7% month - on - month decrease in inventory at the end of January [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. Consider an anti - spread strategy and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE U.S. cotton futures prices continued to rebound, while international crude oil futures prices fell sharply [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A 3.2% year - on - year decrease in the expected U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season, and changes in U.S. cotton export sales and domestic cotton supply - demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [8] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices stopped quoting [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the number of laying hens in production, active chick replenishment, and expected seasonal decline in egg prices due to weakening demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices are weak, and spot prices have a slight increase [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Expected rapid decline in slaughter volume after the minor New Year, large daily slaughter pressure this month, and a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The low - price spot in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 200 points lower than the futures price [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Easing domestic supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider long - positions at low prices in the medium - term [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 917 dollars/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5180 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX and PTA, and a situation of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX in the medium - term, and consider taking profits on PTA [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The PP spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was 130 points lower than the futures price [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider short - positions at high prices in the medium - term [10] MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price was 3675 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply, inventory accumulation, and weakening downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions at appropriate times as the market may start to destock in March [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly. The East China spot market price was 7570 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level pure benzene inventory, low - level styrene inventory, and weak supply - demand on both sides [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, and consider long - positions on styrene or related spread strategies in the medium - to - long - term [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "interval oscillation" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot market was sluggish with a double - weak supply - demand situation. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work at coal mines may be faster than that of downstream steel mills, so the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Investors are advised to pay attention to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes and control risks by holding light or no positions during the festival [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the daytime session opening; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,664.0 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the daytime session opening. In last night's session, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,121.0 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the daytime session closing, and the coke main contract closed at 1,665.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the daytime session closing [1] 3.2 Important Information - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and fell 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 794.06 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25.84 million tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 1,442.73 million tons, a weekly increase of 104.98 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 689.08 million tons, a 9.4% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of February 11, the cumulative coal storage at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 6.0448 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.39%, and the coal import volume exceeded 6 billion tons 23 days earlier than in 2025 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic coking coal supply and demand were in a double - weak pattern. After the Spring Festival, coal mines may resume work faster than downstream steel mills, and the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Attention should be paid to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold light or no positions during the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the resumption of work rhythm of steel mills [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]

| 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2603） | | 4716.8 IH主力合约（2603） 3083.0 | +4.2↑ IF次主力合约（2602） -9.4↓ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4719.4 3082.8 | +3.2↑ -9.0↓ | | IC主力合约（2603） | | 8448.8 | +112.2↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8448.2 | +103.2↑ | | IM主力合约（2603） | | 8338.0 | +93.6↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8345.4 | +83.0↑ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 期货盘面 | 1636.6 | +12.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3728.8 | +102.6↑ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | | -102.8 | -20.6↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5365.4 | +114.6↑ | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | 3626.0 | +82.0↑ ...