智通财经7月17日电，欧元区6月CPI同比增长2%，预期2%；6月CPI环比增长0.3%，预期0.3%。 ...

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Data - In June, the US CPI increased year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - The proportion of CPI items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rose from 40.8% to 44.1%, indicating a broadening inflationary trend[24] Group 2: Tariff Impact on CPI - The estimated impact of tariffs on CPI shows that if core goods prices remained at February levels, the tariff effect could account for 14% of CPI; if prices followed last year's downward trend, the effect could be 40%[4] - The remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core goods prices is estimated to be around 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to an overall CPI impact of 0.5-0.54 percentage points[23] - For specific high-import-dependency goods, tariffs have been reflected in CPI as follows: toys and games (52%), furniture (70%), clothing (10%) if prices remained at February levels[18] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76, and the probability of a September cut dropping from 60.1% to 55%[2] - Bloomberg's consensus forecast for year-on-year CPI in Q3 and Q4 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, reflecting the anticipated impact of remaining tariffs[23]

$BTC steadied near $118,300 as June’s U.S. CPI print cooled investor nerves with eyes on $ETH as watchers await a breakout to record highs. By @shauryamalwa.https://t.co/wfcsDAf34S ...

数据公布后，投资者纷纷进场，除4个月期短债外，其余期限美债收益率全线走低。截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率下跌2.3BPs 至3.936%，10年期美债收益率下跌2.6BPs至4.463%，30年期美债收益率也下跌2.6BPs至4.992%。 美国劳工统计局周四发布的报告显示，与5月份相比，生产商面临的定价环境有所缓和，当月PPI环比增长0.3%、同比增长2.7%。尽管6 月份汽油价格上涨，但服务价格（尤其是酒店、航空公司和汽车经销商的服务价格）的下跌，压低了整体指数。旅游和休闲价格一直低 于通常水平，这可能表明，在经济高度不确定的时期，消费者需求有所下降。 周二，受到密切关注的消费者价格指数显示，6月份价格稳步走高，部分原因是关税敏感行业的商品价格上涨。核心PPI（不包括波动较 大的食品和能源成分）也与5月份持平，而年率从3.2%放缓至2.6%。 "随着关税引发的通胀迹象在耐用品和非耐用品进口中显现出来，通胀已开始缓慢攀升，" RSM咨询公司美国首席经济学家乔· 布鲁苏埃 拉斯表示，"这引发了一个重要问题，正在放缓但仍处于高位的服务业和住房通胀是否会进一步降温，以抵消耐用品和非耐用品价格将 更为明显的增 ...

美国6月PPI环比基本持平，主要受服务成本下滑抑制，表明企业正在吸收至少部分来自进口关税上升的 成本。PPI报告紧随6月CPI数据之后，后者显示更高的关税正逐步传导至包括家居用品、家电和休闲用 品在内的多个类别。尽管今年以来通胀总体温和，但许多经济学家预计，随着更多企业试图抵消更高的 贸易成本，通胀将逐步升温。 ...

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

CPI唱罢，PPI登场，空头将再下一城？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 黄金空头将再下一城？ ...

Joining us now on the markets and prospects for earnings season, Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower at Good to see you. Thanks on set with us. You have I guess been looking forward to corporate earnings because you think they could be okay and surprise maybe on the upside although tariff concerns remain given the number yesterday that you saw for the CPI when we got it.was to be honest, we we were kind of mixed. It didn't look as bad as as the worst case scenarios, but there looked like so ...

沪镍产业日报 2025-07-16 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120550 | 1170 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -160 | -20 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15215 | 150 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 54128 | -8675 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -16072 | -927 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | ...

意大利6月CPI同比终值 1.7%，预期 1.7%，初值 1.7%。 ...